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Schemes of Arrangement in Booms and Busts 19 February 2010Justin MannoliniExecutive DirectorGresham Advisory Partners Limited
What Creates Value in M&A?M&A Is Good – Though mainly for Targets ,[object Object]
Most of the “net benefit” of M&A is really just a wealth transfer
Scrip deals are worse for bidders; cash deals better
McKinsey methodology is limited,[object Object]
What Creates Value in M&A?Win-Win Outcomes are Rare … But They Do Happen Wesfarmers achieved a significant re-rate on the $2.2 billion acquisition of Howard Smith in 2001. Wesfarmers shares gained 36% in the 6 months post announcing the bid (the ASX 200 fell 3% over the same period)
What are the Key Considerations Today?Five Trends to Watch No “Typical Premium” Nil premium and high premium deals on the rise (see following slide) 1 Simplicity Rules ,[object Object],2 Management reined in ,[object Object],3 Increasing arbitrage players ,[object Object],4 ,[object Object],Deleveraging still going on 5 “Certainty of outcome” is a common factor and means it is likely schemes will continue to be in vogue, notwithstanding their flaws …
What are the Key Considerations Today?Low and High Premiums This snap-shot of mining, oil & gas M&A deals suggests there is no “typical” bid premium  Bidders are only willing to pay a premium if the value case allows it Long tail of low-premium bids

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Schemes of Arrangement in Booms and Busts

  • 1. Schemes of Arrangement in Booms and Busts 19 February 2010Justin MannoliniExecutive DirectorGresham Advisory Partners Limited
  • 2.
  • 3. Most of the “net benefit” of M&A is really just a wealth transfer
  • 4. Scrip deals are worse for bidders; cash deals better
  • 5.
  • 6. What Creates Value in M&A?Win-Win Outcomes are Rare … But They Do Happen Wesfarmers achieved a significant re-rate on the $2.2 billion acquisition of Howard Smith in 2001. Wesfarmers shares gained 36% in the 6 months post announcing the bid (the ASX 200 fell 3% over the same period)
  • 7.
  • 8. What are the Key Considerations Today?Low and High Premiums This snap-shot of mining, oil & gas M&A deals suggests there is no “typical” bid premium Bidders are only willing to pay a premium if the value case allows it Long tail of low-premium bids
  • 9.
  • 10. What Determines SuccessBookends to the Process Are Critical May be single phase in hostile deals What approach and execution scenarios can be anticipated prior to the initial approach (if there is to be one)?