Probabilistic Population Projection of North Africa to 2021.pdf

1. JOYNI B. MONTEROZO
MAED STUDENT
Group 8
Population Education

2. JOYNI B. MONTEROZO
MAED STUDENT
ROLANDO V BALONA
PROFESSOR
Group 8
Population Education
OutLook
7.1 Probabilistic Population Projection
of
North Africa to 2021

3. is an Austrian demographer specializing in demographic
analysis and population projection.
Wolfgang Lutz
FD WIC2014
The Future Population
of
the World (1996)

4. Uncertainty of future
demographic outcomes is
qualified by constructing
a large sample of future
trajectories for fertility
and mortality outcomes
for each country.
Probabilistic
Population
Projection

5. The approach
is based on expert
judgment about trends
and uncertainties of
future fertility, mortality,
and migration in all world
regions.
Probabilistic
Population
Projection

6. Total fertility was estimated to
decline from 4.35 in 1995 to 3.92 in
2000, 2.00 in 2030-2035, and 1.54
in 2080-2085 in the low case; to
4.13 in 2000, 3.00 in 2030-2035,
and 2.04 in 2080-2085 in the
central case; and to 4.35 in 2000,
4.00 in 2030-2035, and 2.54 in
2080-2085 in the high case.
Total
Fertility

7. 62.7 years for men and 65.3 years
for women in North Africa in 1995,
was assumed to increase by 0.5
years per decade in the low case;
by 2.25 years, in the central case;
and by 4 years, in the high case.
After 2035 increases per decade
were assumed to be half these
amounts.
Life
Expectancy

8. the low case assumed no net-
migration: the central case
assumed a net loss of 237,500
persons per year; and the high
case, a net loss of 475,000 per
year.
Migration

9. The results show that in
the most likely case the
population of the region
increases from 162
million in 1995 to 277
million in 2020, 440
million in 2050, and 630
million by the end of the
next century
162 millionin 1995 to
277 millionin 2020,
440 millionin 2050,
630 millionby the end
ofthe next century

10. 162 millionin 1995 to
277 millionin 2020,
440 millionin 2050,
630 millionby the end
ofthe next century
The figure shows that by
2020 the uncertainty
range is still narrow: the
95 percent confidence
interval ranges from 254
million to 300
million.
The figure shows that by
2020 the uncertainty
range is still narrow: the
95 percent confidence
interval ranges from 254
million to 300
million.

11. By 2050 the span of the
95 percent confidence
interval increases from
309 million to 583
million, and by 2100 the
uncertainty range is
extremely wide, ranging
from a low 228 million
(which is still higher than
today's population) to
an incredible 1.2 billion -
a range of 1 billion
people. But this range
includes some rather
unlikely cases.

12. This shows that in 97.5
percent of all cases the
proportion of the
population that is below
age 15 declines from
close to 40 percent today
to below 25 percent by
the end of the 21st
century.

13. The proportion above age
60, illustrated in Figure 7,
increases in 97.5 percent
of all cases from around
5 percent today to above
35 percent. In the most
likely case it increases to
above 20 percent.

14. 7.2 Possible future migration
from North Africa to Europe

15. Modern Migration

16. Modern Migration

17. What effect would alternative migration streams
from North Africa to Western Europe have on the receiving
countries?
This question has been discussed in the literature. Lutz and
Prinz (1992) and Lutz (1994b) have extensively analyzed the
demographic consequences of alternative immigration and
integration scenarios. In short, even massive immigration to
Western Europe cannot reverse or stop the strong and very
pronounced aging process that will be experienced over the
coming decades.

18. Conclusion:
Population,
Education, and
Sustainable
Development

19. Additional Concepts

20. Population Relationship ? Education

22. References