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This document discusses strategic enrollment planning at USM. It begins by looking back at USM's history and financial situation from 2000-2013. It then summarizes USM's 2006 and 2011 strategic plans, which focused on growing health sciences programs and improving retention and facilities. The document notes enrollment growth in nursing, physical therapy, and related programs. It also discusses efforts to improve fiscal stability through increasing overall enrollment, online programs, and facilities upgrades. The second half covers the current environment, including MOOCs and their impact. It introduces Rob Baird to discuss the importance of strategic enrollment planning given trends in demographics, costs, technology, and other factors. Baird notes key questions around enrollment goals and adapting to changes in the

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Focus on the Future USM Board of Trustees‘ Retreat
Looking Back Today‘s Conditions Focus on the Future Overview
History & Background It is wisdom to pause, to look back and see by what straight or twisting paths we have arrived at the place we find ourselves.‖ - Mother Xavier Ross
History & Background Fiscal Years 2000-2005 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Revenue Expenses Special Gift Expenditures exceeded revenues by $3.3 million. Expenditures will exceed revenues by $1.8 million. Operating Results
FOCUS
2006 Strategic Plan A new focus: Health Sciences and Fiscal Stability
Health Sciences 2006 Strategic Plan
2006 Strategic Plan Nursing Programs Traditional on-campus BSN RN-to-BSN Accelerated BSN MSN Health Sciences
2006 Strategic Plan Health Sciences 0 50 100 150 200 250 Fall '09 Fall '10 Fall '11 Fall '12 RN-to-BSN Pre-nursing Accel. BSN UG Nursing Nursing Programs Enrollment
2006 Strategic Plan Stefani Doctor of Physical Therapy Director Mark Horacek hired in August 2009 Health Sciences Program granted CAPTE candidacy in May 2012.
2006 Strategic Plan DPT Program Enrollment Health Sciences 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 SU '12 SU '13 SU '14 Projected Projected
2006 Strategic Plan Health Information Management (HIM) Director Don Kellogg hired in March 2012 In accreditation candidacy status with CAHIIM (HIM program accrediting body) Health Sciences
2006 Strategic Plan HIM Program Enrollment Health Sciences 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Fall '12 Fall '13 Fall '14 Projected Projected
2006 Strategic Plan Total Health Sciences Enrollment Health Sciences 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Fall '09 Fall '10 Fall '11 Fall '12 RN-to-BSN Pre-nursing UG Nursing Accel. BSN DPT HIM
2006 Strategic Plan Growth in Related Science Programs Biology is now the second most popular major at USM, behind only nursing Med School success stories: John Cothern and Tawana Evans Health Sciences
Fiscal Stability 2006 Strategic Plan
2006 Strategic Plan Fiscal Stability Operating Results (FYE 2006-2013) 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 22,000,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Revenue Expenses Special Gift Expenditures exceeded revenues by $1.5 million. Revenues exceeded expenditures by $447,000. Expenditures will exceed revenues by $1.1 million.
2006 Strategic Plan Fiscal Stability Undergraduate Main Campus Enrollment Growth 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Fall Semester FRESHMEN NEW TRANSFERS 116 Freshmen Total Full-Time, Main Campus Enrollment has increased by 181, or 50%, from Fall 2005 to 2012. TOTAL 199 Total New Students
2006 Strategic Plan Total Enrollment Fiscal Stability 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Fall Year 839 1,047 993 1,073 957 886 1,189 Doctorate FT Undergraduate PT Undergraduate OPC Grad All Online Online Program began in FYE 2007. Total student headcount increased by 372, or 46%, from Fall 2005 to Fall 2012. 817
2006 Strategic Plan Fiscal Stability Other New Programs Cheer & Dance – Nearly 20 new students Cross Country/Track & Field – Over 30 new students Online Programs
2006 Strategic Plan Fiscal Stability Online Programs Enrollment 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Fall '09 Fall '10 Fall '11 Fall '12 Fall '13 Projected
2006 Strategic Plan Fiscal Stability Fall 2012 Enrollment Populations 573 151 150 116 162 37 FT Undergraduate PT Undergraduate Online Undergraduate OPC Graduate Online Graduate Doctorate Full-Time Undergraduate enrollment is about 48% of total enrollment for the Fall 2012 Semester. Graduates Undergraduates
2006 Strategic Plan Fiscal Stability 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000 11,000,000 12,000,000 13,000,000 14,000,000 15,000,000 16,000,000 17,000,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 March 2013 Restricted Unrestricted Transfer The restricted endowment portion has increased from $6.1 million to $12.6 million, or 107%, from FYE 2006 to March $3.4 million $16,407,221 Endowment Growth
2006 Strategic Plan Improved Facilities McGilley Field House Berkel Residence Hall New Construction
2006 Strategic Plan Improved Facilities Renovations Mead Hall Nursing Student Services Berchmans Hall Health Sciences
REFOCUS
2011 Strategic Plan Health Sciences Improved Retention Facilities and Technology Infrastructure
2011 Strategic Plan Improved Retention Improving Retention Rates First-time Full-time Freshmen Fall 2011 – 52% Fall 2012 – 65% Fall 2013 goal – 70%
2011 Strategic Plan Improved Retention Athletes‘ GPA Athletes with a GPA above 3.0 Fall 2010: 50% Fall 2012: 61% Athletes with a GPA below 1.9 Fall 2010: 15% Fall 2012: 8%
2011 Strategic Plan Facilities and Technology Infrastructure Berchmans as Health Sciences Headquarters Utilizing ‗The Cloud‘ Classroom Technology
FOCUSon TODAY
Current Environment Massive Open Online Courses MOOCs
MOOCs What are they? New web-based tools/ ―platforms‖ What distinguishes them from traditional classes and makes them attractive? Unlimited enrollment, name recognition, and cost – they are free!
MOOCs Four Comments on Those Observations 1. The originators are not accrediting their own courses 2. The originators were individual professors 3. Remaining free is not going to be sustainable 4. The completion rate is between 5% and 10%
MOOCs Three Explanatory Notes 1. Most are asynchronous 2. A few are moving in a synchronous direction 3. Completion rate at 5% to 10%
MOOCs Who Are They? Coursera edX Udacity
MOOCs The Promise and the Apparent Reality of MOOCs MOOCs will transform teaching and learning ―The revolution is not about IT. It is about teaching and learning.‖
MOOCs The Promise and the Apparent Reality of MOOCs Although still a ―moving target‖ and not fully matured, MOOCs are not proving to be a disrupter, but rather ―just one spice among many online education spices.‖ The challenge of picking what spice or spices to use
MOOCs Who Are the Biggest Users of MOOCs? People living outside the US Among US students: – Non-traditional students • Not enrolled in a degree program • Seeking to enhance their skills • Just intellectually curious
MOOCs What Schools are Most Likely to be Affected, If Any? Potentially most affected: small, marginal, independent colleges Least likely: selective, well-established independent colleges Somewhere in the middle: the publics, including community colleges The California State University System Experiment
MOOCs Some Unresolved Issues Where do MOOCs appear to be heading? Political pressure to expand educational opportunities and contain costs – will MOOCs fill the bill? The illusion of name brand Future costs
MOOCs Other Considerations Employer Responses Accreditors State Authorization
MOOCs MOOCs May Already Be Yesterday‘s News A note on competency-based learning What is it? What are its potential advantages? Western Governors University Southern New Hampshire University What are the potential liabilities?
MOOCs Recommended Resources ―What you need to know about MOOCs‖ on the Chronicle of Higher Education website http://chronicle.com/article/What-You-Need-to-Know-About/133475
Current Environment Student Loan Bubble Putting Hundreds of Colleges at Risk — Business Insider | August 2012 Colleges take extreme cost-cutting measures — CNN Money | March 2012 Does It Still Make Sense to Borrow to Pay for College? — The Daily Ticker | April 2012
Strategic Enrollment Traditional Enrollment Planning Annual Scope Focus on the Admissions Department Administration AthleticsAdmissions Academics
Strategic Enrollment Fiscal Plan Enrollment Plan Research Plan Facilities Plan Technology Plan Fundraising Plan Academic Plan Student Affairs Co-Curricular Plan MISSION
Strategic Enrollment Welcome Rob Baird
The Imperative of Strategic Enrollment Planning Rob Baird Senior Vice President and Principal
Why Plan?
What will be necessary to change in our enrollment processes, priorities and systems to achieve our enrollment goals and respond to the institutional strategic plan within an ever changing environment?
 Increasing enrollment?  Improving gross and net revenue?  Filling under enrolled programs?  Improving geographical representation?  Improving diversity  Improving retention  Attracting better qualified students (more likely to persist)  Improving efficiency and effectiveness of operations?  Determining and responding to program demand locally, regionally, and/or nationally  Improving awareness, image, and perception of the institution?  Professional staff development and ongoing training in state-of-the-art enrollment management practices?  Introducing and enhancing the ‘breakthrough enrollment technologies and systems?”  Other Key Questions to Consider
My institution has a written, long- range strategic enrollment plan Percent of respondents in agreement Type of institution Yes Yes and it’s of excellent quality* Four-year private 69.5% 18.0% Four-year public 64.6% 23.1% Two-year public 61.4% 4.5% *Indicates the percentage of respondents who rated the quality of their plan “excellent” as opposed to “good,” “fair,” “poor,” or “no” (nonexistent) © 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc. 2011 Marketing and Student Recruitment Practices at Four- Year and Two-Year Institutions
Nearly 40 years; 60+ consultants; 500 years experience; 2,700 campuses served
Noel-Levitz Partnership Funnel
Understanding the changing landscape
Six megatrends facing higher education Enrollment growth will slow Demographic shifts Retention and completion pressures will intensify Changing economic model Impact of technology on communicating with students Managing new learning modalities
Higher education’s compounded annual growth rates is expected to drop by 39 percent from 1.8 to 1.1 percent 5.6% 1.1% 1963-1980 1980-2009 2009-2020 1.8% NCES Projections of Education Statistics to 2020 ( 2011); p. 62
We are at the beginning of a long slump for future freshman classes 4,200,000 4,300,000 4,400,000 4,500,000 4,600,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Data Source: Population Projections Branch of the U.S. Census Bureau Projected Number of 18-Year Olds: United States
$75,486 $68,961 $39,538 $38,500 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 Asian White Hispanic African American Hispanic and African American families have median incomes that are approximately 57 percent of white families Trends in College Pricing, 2011. © 2011. The College Board. Reproduced with permission. www.collegeboard.com.
Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 2007-08 through 2020-21 Source: IES
† In-state institutions receiving the largest number of in-state freshmen. †† Competition factor equals college continuation rate less number of students migrating and the three in-state institutions receiving the largest number of in- state freshmen. Kansas: The competition factor 32,289 high school seniors / 2012-13* 67 institutions of higher education** 64.7% college continuation rate (20,891)*** (ranks 17th among states) 15.6% leave the state to go to college (3,262)**** (ranks 31st among states) Three Largest Institutions†***** Number of In-state Freshmen***** Kansas State University 2,763 University of Kansas 2,467 Johnson County Community College 1,445 10,954 students ÷ 64 institutions = 171 students per institution†† Sources: *Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door, 2012 **The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2012 ***Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Chance for College by Age 19 by State 1986-2010, 2013 ****Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Interstate Migration of College Freshmen 1986-2010, 2012 *****National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey (2010)
† In-state institutions receiving the largest number of in-state freshmen. †† Competition factor equals college continuation rate less number of students migrating and the three in-state institutions receiving the largest number of in- state freshmen. Sources: *Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2008 **The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2010 ***Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2010 ****Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Interstate Migration Data, 2010 *****National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey (2010) Missouri: The competition factor 65,304 high school seniors / 2011-12* 132 institutions of higher education** 60.0% college continuation rate (39,182)*** (ranks 33rd among states) 17.7% leave the state to go to college (6,933)**** (ranks 29th among states) Three Largest Institutions†***** Number of In-state Freshmen***** University of Missouri – Columbia 4,297 Missouri State University – Springfield 2,279 Ozarks Technical Community College 2,037 23,636 students ÷ 129 institutions = 183 students per institution††
† In-state institutions receiving the largest number of in-state freshmen. †† Competition factor equals college continuation rate less number of students migrating and the three in-state institutions receiving the largest number of in- state freshmen. Sources: *Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2008 **The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2010 ***Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2010 ****Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Interstate Migration Data, 2010 *****National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey (2010) Nebraska: The competition factor 21,176 high school seniors / 2011-12* 43 institutions of higher education** 65.5% college continuation rate (13,870)*** (ranks 18th among states) 19.1% leave the state to go to college (2,648)**** (ranks 25th among states) Three Largest Institutions†***** Number of In-state Freshmen***** University of Nebraska – Lincoln 3,189 University of Nebraska at Omaha 1,539 Southeast Community College Area 1,082 5,412 students ÷ 40 institutions = 135 students per institution††
† In-state institutions receiving the largest number of in-state freshmen. †† Competition factor equals college continuation rate less number of students migrating and the three in-state institutions receiving the largest number of in- state freshmen. Sources: *Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2008 **The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2010 ***Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2010 ****Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Interstate Migration Data, 2010 *****National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey (2010) Texas: The competition factor 279,129 high school seniors / 2011-12* 240 institutions of higher education** 56.9% college continuation rate (158,824)*** (ranks 41st among states) 11.7% leave the state to go to college (18,617)**** (ranks 40th among states) Three Largest Institutions†***** Number of In-state Freshmen***** Texas A & M University – College Station 7,809 The University of Texas at Austin 6,368 The University of Texas at San Antonio 4,721 121,309 students ÷ 237 institutions = 512 students per institution††
• 60 percent of all four-year institutions want larger freshman classes • 56 percent of all four-year colleges want better freshman classes • 52 percent want a more ethnically diverse student body Institutions are facing never-ending expectations
Miles from home 4.8% 6.2% 26.3% 17.4% 31.4% 14.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 5 or less 6 to 10 11 to 50 51 to 100 101 to 500 Over 500 © 2012 The Regents of the University of California. All Rights Reserved.
Percentage of students satisfied or very satisfied with their overall experience © 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc. 2011 National Student Satisfaction and Priorities Report 57% 54% 61% 53% 48% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 60% 62% Four-year privates Four-year publics Community colleges Career schools
College choice trends
Importance factors in the decision to enroll
Four-year private enrollment factors Item 2009-10 Importance Percentage 1994-95 Importance Percentage Shift Financial aid 81.0% 75.9% 5.1% Academic reputation 78.8% 78.9% -0.1% Cost 74.3% 67.5% 6.8% Personal attention prior to enrollment 64.6% 60.5% 4.1% Geographic setting 57.4% 53.3% 4.1% Campus appearance 57.4% 51.8% 5.6% Size of institution 56.4% 65.1% -8.7% Recommendations from family/friends 42.7% 39.9% 2.8% Opportunity to play sports 26.7% 24.6% 2.1% © Noel-Levitz, Inc. The National Student Satisfaction and Priorities 15-Year Trend Report: Four-Year Private Colleges and Universities
What content matters most to them at this point? 1. A list of academic programs or degrees 2. Cost/tuition/fees 3. Academic program details 4. Admissions requirements 5. Financial aid 6. Scholarships 7. Student life 8. Career options 9. Student activities 10. Ways to connect with admissions © Noel-Levitz, Inc. E-Expectations 2010: Focusing Your E-Recruitment Efforts to Meet the Expectations of College-Bound Students
Impact of the economic crisis on student college planning • 46% report that the current economic crisis has caused them to reconsider the schools to which they apply or may attend (up from 34% last year) – Avoiding private school options—26% (11%) – Commuting instead of living on campus—25% (13%) – Working while going to school—25% (21%) – Attending a community or technical college—19% (21%) – Vo-tech instead of traditional—4% (2%) – Part-time attendance instead of full-time—1% (7%) – Not attending college at all—1% (2%) © Noel-Levitz, Inc. E-Expectations Report: Focusing Your E-Recruitment Efforts to Meet the Expectations of College-Bound Students
What is the highest academic degree you intend to obtain? 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% 21.4% 42.0% 19.1% 10.2% 4.2% 0.2% 1.3% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% NoneVocational certificateAA BA, BS MA, MS PhD or EdDMD, DO, DDS, DVM JD BD or MDIV Other © 2012 The Regents of the University of California. All Rights Reserved.
Number of other colleges applied to for admission this year 12.2% 8.8% 11.7% 14.7% 13.3% 10.5% 7.9% 16.4% 4.6% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% None 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 to 10 11 or more © 2012 The Regents of the University of California. All Rights Reserved.
The college attended is the student’s… 57.9% 27.0% 9.7% 5.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% First choice Second choice Third choice Less than third choice © 2012 The Regents of the University of California. All Rights Reserved.
Can you think of a specific school you have taken off your list because of the experience you had with the Web site? Why pay close attention to your Web site? Yes 24% Noel-Levitz, E-Expectations survey of 1,043 college-bound seniors ©2010
Approximate cost to maintain admissions Web presence © 2012 Noel-Levitz, Inc.
Mobile gap 52% of college- bound students have looked at a college Web site on a mobile phone or tablet Less than 40% of colleges offer Web sites that are optimized for mobile browsing © 2012 Noel-Levitz, Inc. 2012 E-Recruiting Practices and Trends at Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions
Benchmarks for Admissions and Marketing
Effective search campaigns include multiple contacts. Sending a search mailer and waiting for a response typically does not work with today’s prospective students. © 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc. 2011 Marketing and Student Recruitment Practices at Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions
Cost to recruit a single student *Limited sample size for this sector. © 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc. 2011 Cost of Recruiting an Undergraduate Student: Benchmarks for Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions $1,364 $342 $37 $2,185 $457 $108 $3,172 $642 $313 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 Four-year private Four-year public Two-year public* 25th percentile Median cost 75th percentile
Median number of new students enrolled per FTE employee in recruitment or admissions *Limited sample size for this sector © 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc. 2011 Cost of Recruiting an Undergraduate Student: Benchmarks for Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions 33 117 328 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Four-year private Four-year public Two-year public*
Median number of new students enrolled per FTE outreach employee *Limited sample size for this sector. © 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc. 2011 Cost of Recruiting an Undergraduate Student: Benchmarks for Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions 57 256 533 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Four-year private Four-year public Two-year public*
Marketing and Recruitment Plan Develop annual and long-range as well as retention and recruitment plans – for each market segment
What is What is strategic enrollment planning (SEP)?
Strategic Enrollment Planning … • Involves the campus in identifying, prioritizing, implementing, evaluating, an d modifying enrollment strategies and goals within a changing environment in order to effectively and efficiently :  Realize the institution’s mission and vision, and  Support the institution’s capabilities to recruit and maximally serve students currently and in the future.
Effective organization models Strategic plan Mission Vision Institutional Effectiveness Strategic Enrollment Plan KPI Strategies Enrollment Goals Annual Plans Marketing Recruitment Success and Completion (PPRC/G)
The value of not planning The nicest thing about not planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise and is not preceded by a period of worry and depression. “ “ John Preston Boston College
How does the strategic enrollment planning model differ from the traditional planning model?
Strategic Planning = Align organization with its environment to promote stability and survival Traditional Planning = Set goals then develop steps to achieve those goals
• Provides realistic quantifiable goals • Uses a return-on-investment (ROI) and action item approach • Aligns the institution’s mission, current state, and changing environment to foster planned long-term enrollment and fiscal health Strategic enrollment planning is continuous and data-informed
Connects your goals to: • Product (academic, co-curricular, services, support) • Place (on-site, off-site, online, hybrid) • Price and Revenue (tuition, fees, discounts, incentives) • Promotion (marketing, recruitment, Web presence) • Purpose and Identity (mission, distinctiveness, brand) • Process (data-informed, integrated planning) Strategic enrollment planning
Integration of all elements of SEM as part of the development of a Strategic Enrollment Management Plan SEP • Academic Plans • Marketing Plan • Student Success Plan • Recruitment Plan Target new student enrollment goals or new market penetration PPRC/G Start, Grow, Maintain, Eli minate programs Linking internal and external communications Strategic enrolment Plan
Organizing for strategic planning Institutional Strategic Plan Strategic Enrollment Plan Recruitment Planning Committee Marketing Planning Committee Retention Planning Committee Clear goals Key strategies Detailed Action Plans Objectives Timetables Responsibility Budgets Evaluation
Communication is key to success • Preparation • Data Collection • Key Performance Indicators • Situation Analysis Phase One: Data Analysis • Strategy Development • Tactics Identified • Strategy Prioritization Phase Two: Strategies • ROI Considerations • Enrollment Projection • Goal Setting • Finalize Written Plan Phase Three Enrollment Goals • Implementation of Plan • Form Strategic EM Council Phase Four: Implementation Introduction to the SEP phases:
Sample Table of Contents for the finalized SEP plan Introduction and Executive Summary Organizational Structure for Planning and Foci Situation Analysis Mission, Vision, Key Performance Indicators, Planning Assumptions, Strategies and Priorities for action Enrollment goals, projections, and return on investments Future structure to monitor enrollment management Summary
Key Performance Indicators Enrollment External Market demand Selectivity DiversityTrue Capacity Pricing and Net Costs Persistence & Graduation Experience & Engagement Possible indicators
Strategic Enrollment Management Council (SEMC) Goals • Assesses progress towards goal obtainment KPI • Monitors KPIs Strategy Implementation • Sets priorities and budget dollars linked to priorities to accomplish goals
Typical elements in a strategic enrollment plan
• Resources • Dollars • Time • Staff • Technology • Expected level of strategy impact • Priority to accomplishing enrollment projection • Campus readiness for implementation ROI strategy analysis
A multi-year tool should have the ability to model the following items: • Enrollment (first-year, transfer, full-time, part-time, etc.) • Direct cost – tuition and fees (sometimes room and/or board) • Residency • Retention • Revenue and institutional aid annualization/realization − Annualization factors adjust for revenue due to mid-year attrition (i.e., who you lose after fall and pick up in spring) − Annualization factors allow you to estimate annual revenues and expenditures from fall term enrollment − For example, if the presence of one freshman in the fall term indicates that you will collect 99% of an FTE annual tuition (when in-year attrition and subsequent term enrollees are considered), the annualization factor for tuition revenue for freshmen would be 99% • Model institutional aid (funded and unfunded), discount rate, and net revenue by class as well as on the aggregate
Scenarios provide comparisons © Noel-Levitz, Inc. All rights reserved Noel-Levitz University Current Date: February 28, 2012 Last Modified Date: Enrollment Projections Combining All Scenarios January 30, 2011 Model #1: Full-time/Bachelors Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020 Freshmen 458 462 463 463 463 463 463 463 463 463 463 Sophomore 270 300 305 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 Junior 220 228 247 252 253 253 253 253 253 253 253 Senior 228 232 240 255 261 262 262 262 262 262 262 Total 1,176 1,222 1,255 1,276 1,283 1,284 1,284 1,284 1,284 1,284 1,284 Scenario #2: 5% increase in new; 5% increase in retention Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020 Freshmen 458 462 471 486 503 520 539 558 578 600 622 Sophomore 270 300 329 337 346 356 366 377 388 400 413 Junior 220 228 248 269 276 282 290 297 305 314 323 Senior 228 232 242 260 278 286 292 299 306 313 321 Total 1,176 1,222 1,290 1,352 1,403 1,444 1,487 1,531 1,577 1,627 1,679 Scenario 3: 5% new student every other year; plus 5% retention increase in 2012; 1% in 2013, 2% in 2014 Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020 Freshmen 458 462 463 476 478 492 494 508 511 526 544 Sophomore 270 300 328 313 323 320 327 328 335 338 346 Junior 220 228 247 267 259 265 264 268 271 275 278 Senior 228 232 241 258 273 270 274 275 277 281 283 Total 1,176 1,222 1,279 1,314 1,333 1,347 1,359 1,379 1,394 1,420 1,451
Factoring in Financial Aid © Noel-Levitz, Inc. All rights reserved 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 Actual Projected Projected Projected Projected Total Enrollment 2367 2536 2625 2760 2923 Tuition revenue $43,769,546 $49,307,508 $53,364,871 $58,856,214 $65,384,548 Required fee revenue $1,576,470 $1,846,357 $1,930,236 $2,129,487 $2,365,672 Room/board revenue $15,208,685 $16,581,903 $18,066,523 $19,988,345 $22,202,265 Other charges $443,767 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total revenue $60,998,468 $67,735,768 $73,361,630 $80,974,046 $89,952,485 Unfunded gift aid - tuition $16,636,731 $20,337,206 $22,943,014 $26,558,534 $29,017,554 Unfunded gift aid - room/board $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Funded gift aid $3,437,548 $2,975,000 $2,975,000 $2,175,000 $2,175,000 Total institutional gift $20,074,279 $23,312,206 $25,918,014 $28,733,534 $31,192,554 Employee dependent waivers $1,863,153 $1,812,496 $1,652,158 $1,510,827 $1,474,210 Net Tuition Revenue (NACUBO) $25,271,737 $27,841,659 $29,377,093 $32,252,167 $36,557,666 Overall unfunded net revenue $42,498,584 $45,586,066 $48,766,458 $52,904,685 $59,460,721 Tuition Discount Rate (NACUBO) 44.3% 45.6% 46.9% 47.1% 46.0% Overall unfunded discount 28.1% 30.8% 32.0% 33.4% 32.8% Summary of Annual Results ABC University Projection of Undergraduate Enrollment, Net Revenue and Discount for the Incoming through 2013-2014 Academic Years
End Result © Noel-Levitz, Inc. All rights reserved Noel-Levitz University Current Date: February 28, 2012 Last Modified Date: Revenue Projections Combining All Scenarios January 30, 2011 Model #1: Full-time/Bachelors Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020 Tuition Revenue Based on Enrollment and/Student Revenue Freshmen $5,086,620 $5,352,512 $5,620,137 $5,901,144 $6,196,201 $6,506,011 $6,831,312 $7,172,877 $7,531,521 $7,908,097 Sophomore $3,854,700 $4,114,892 $4,334,803 $4,551,543 $4,779,120 $5,018,076 $5,268,980 $5,532,429 $5,809,050 $6,099,503 Junior $2,945,760 $3,350,802 $3,589,564 $3,783,998 $3,973,198 $4,171,858 $4,380,451 $4,599,474 $4,829,447 $5,070,920 Senior $2,856,152 $3,102,372 $3,461,084 $3,719,647 $3,920,594 $4,116,623 $4,322,454 $4,538,577 $4,765,506 $5,003,781 Total $14,743,232 $15,920,578 $17,005,587 $17,956,332 $18,869,113 $19,812,569 $20,803,197 $21,843,357 $22,935,525 $24,082,301 Scenario #2: 5% increase in new; 5% increase in retention Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020 Tuition Revenue Based on Enrollment and/Student Revenue Freshmen $5,086,620 $5,444,996 $5,899,323 $6,410,962 $6,959,016 $7,573,953 $8,232,985 $8,954,478 $9,760,071 $10,623,837 Sophomore $3,854,700 $4,438,687 $4,773,950 $5,146,516 $5,560,022 $6,002,013 $6,491,521 $7,014,975 $7,593,530 $8,232,336 Junior $2,945,760 $3,364,368 $3,831,717 $4,127,998 $4,428,624 $4,781,972 $5,142,269 $5,544,820 $5,993,859 $6,473,941 Senior $2,856,152 $3,128,225 $3,528,948 $3,961,923 $4,279,732 $4,587,992 $4,932,877 $5,300,781 $5,693,143 $6,130,587 Total $14,743,232 $16,376,276 $18,033,938 $19,647,399 $21,227,395 $22,945,929 $24,799,652 $26,815,054 $29,040,603 $31,460,700 Scenario 3: 5% new student every other year; plus 5% retention increase in 2012; 1% in 2013, 2% in 2014 Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020 Tuition Revenue Based on Enrollment and/Student Revenue Freshmen $5,086,620 $5,352,512 $5,777,938 $6,092,326 $6,584,300 $6,941,619 $7,495,262 $7,916,502 $8,556,329 $9,291,587 Sophomore $3,854,700 $4,425,196 $4,433,965 $4,804,407 $4,997,773 $5,362,454 $5,647,796 $6,056,744 $6,416,533 $6,896,824 Junior $2,945,760 $3,350,802 $3,803,228 $3,873,737 $4,161,650 $4,353,243 $4,640,162 $4,926,709 $5,249,399 $5,571,999 Senior $2,856,152 $3,115,299 $3,501,802 $3,890,665 $4,040,306 $4,305,171 $4,536,927 $4,798,419 $5,111,096 $5,404,848 Total $14,743,232 $16,243,808 $17,516,933 $18,661,135 $19,784,029 $20,962,487 $22,320,147 $23,698,374 $25,333,357 $27,165,257
Five points to remember relative to calculating and communicating ROI 1. Optimal number of students for your capacity 2. The desired characteristics of sub-groups of your students as well as overall 3. Achieve a targeted net revenue goal by sub-populations of your students 4. Control the institution’s discount rate/financial aid expenditures 5. Understand the retention implications of your current enrollment initiatives, both in terms of recruitment of populations as well as awarding strategies
Strategic enrollment growth matrix Existing Programs/Services New Programs/Services Existing Markets New Markets Market penetration Program development Diversification Market development
Evaluating the economics of programs – strategic response Manage Grow or build StartReduce or eliminate Enrollmentas%ofCapacity Net Operating Income Per Student
The quality perception of Group A schools is relatively weak; in fact, they are almost indistinguishable from the community colleges
Job placement and progression to graduate school Year Survey Response Placement Rate Employed Graduate or Professional School 2009 80.4% 96.0% 57.1% 38.9% 2008 79.5% 94.0% 53.0% 41.0% 2007 79.0% 97.8% 56.5% 41.3% 2006 77.6% 96.6% 54.9% 41.7% 2005 70.0% 94.4% 46.9% 47.5%
Assessing alumni satisfaction Not at All Satisfied/Not Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Satisfied/ Very Satisfied My Sample U education prepared me well for my first real job after graduation. 12% 17% 71% My Sample U education prepared me well for graduate school. 5% 10% 85% In general, the tuition I paid for my education was a worthwhile investment. 6% 14% 80%
Competition, market demand, program strength Program: What we do best -- Authenticity Market Demand: What students want -- Relevance Competition: Unoccupied market positions -- Differentiation
Adams State College Angelo State University Arkansas State University- Main Campus Arkansas Tech University Auburn University at Montgomery Boise State University Cameron University Central Washington University Delta State University Eastern Washington University Emporia State University Fort Hays State University Henderson State University Indiana University- Northwest Indiana University- Purdue University- Fort Wayne Indiana University- South Bend Louisiana State University- Shreveport Minnesota State University Moorhead Missouri Southern State University Missouri State University- Springfield Missouri Western State University Montana State University- Billings Morehead State University Northern Kentucky University Northern State University X university Net Price High Cost Low Selectivity Low Cost High Selectivity High Cost High Selectivity Low Cost Low Selectivity Selectivity National Center for Education Statistics. Data Feedback Report 2012.
Occupations with the largest numerical growth requiring at least a BA 2008-18 Occupation # of New Jobs % Change 2008 Median Wage Registered Nurse* 581,500 22% $62,450 Accountants and auditors 279,400 22% $59,430 Postsecondary teachers 256,900 15% $58,830 Elementary school teachers 244,200 16% $49,330 Management analysts 178,300 24% $73,750 Computer software engineers, applications 175,100 34% $85,430 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition http://www/bls.gov/oco/ * Only requires an AA
Occupations with the largest numerical growth requiring at least a BA 2008-18 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition http://www/bls.gov/oco/ Occupation % Change # of New Jobs 2008 Median Wage Biomedical engineers 72% 11,600 $77,400 Network systems and data communications analysts 53% 155,800 $71,000 Financial examiners 41% 11,100 $70,930 Medical scientists 40% 44,200 $72,590 Physician assistants 39% 29,200 $81,250 Biochemists and biophysicists 37% 8,700 $82,840 Athletic trainers 37% 6,000 $39,640 Computer software engineers 34% 175,100 $85,430 Veterinarians 33% 19,700 $79,050
Sample University’s out-of-state market: All students with B+ and above GPA OH IN IL MD VA NJ PA TN WV MO TX Medical Physician 11,144 5,733 11,739 4,596 6,790 7,782 11,866 6,587 2,190 5,871 27,502 Nursing/Health Care 7,906 4,362 7,760 3,393 4,393 3,741 7,937 4,985 1,548 3,300 20,128 Lawyer/Legal Services 5,173 2,417 6,538 3,091 3,802 5,217 6,633 2,861 646 2,912 13,203 Engineering (General) 4,171 2,034 4,476 2,413 2,735 3,597 4,943 1,897 610 2,327 11,721Law Enforcement/Criminal Justice 2,977 1,474 3,868 1,839 2,081 2,916 4,106 1,680 467 1,279 8,324 Business Owner/Entrepreneur 3,151 1,430 3,275 1,916 2,350 2,445 4,128 1,731 344 1,699 8,476 Architecture 3,245 1,497 3,744 1,501 2,096 2,720 3,674 1,251 382 1,626 8,282 Culinary/Chef 2,992 1,245 3,672 1,720 2,040 2,476 3,545 1,437 468 1,730 7,187 Athletics/Coaching 2,875 1,319 3,112 1,324 1,732 1,815 3,297 1,500 409 1,426 7,375 Engineering (Mechanical) 2,774 1,417 2,639 1,200 1,791 1,607 2,811 1,393 481 1,103 7,447 Physical Therapy 3,382 1,657 2,875 937 1,586 1,470 3,784 1,769 696 1,290 3,855 Child Care/Development 2,448 1,127 2,802 1,240 1,474 1,631 3,166 1,558 367 1,498 5,959 Sports Medicine 3,286 1,328 2,343 1,292 1,893 1,523 3,196 1,590 532 1,236 4,614 Veterinary Medicine 2,350 1,330 2,040 936 1,483 1,004 2,264 1,232 428 1,144 5,257 Military Science 2,267 894 2,179 1,106 1,809 1,671 2,456 1,255 308 1,114 4,142 Engineering (Electrical) 1,862 956 2,079 1,254 1,446 1,362 2,106 1,038 416 815 5,767 Pharmacy 2,164 1,211 2,109 536 1,054 1,286 2,567 1,433 579 919 4,443 Photography/Video/Film 1,821 1,041 2,225 984 1,360 1,417 2,373 947 287 871 4,793 Graphic Arts/Design 1,880 900 2,122 991 1,153 1,504 2,331 856 254 967 4,598 Fashion Merchandising 1,447 559 1,758 1,047 1,239 1,508 1,822 659 133 730 4,506 States Majors
USM’s admission selectivity average ACT is 23 Selectivity Level ACT SAT (Middle 50%) (Middle 50%) Highly selective 25–30 1710–2000 Selective 21–26 1470–1770 Traditional 18–24 1290–1650 Liberal 17–22 1230–1530 Open 16–21 1170–1480 Source: Compiled from ACT Institutional Data File, 2012. 2012. ACT, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
SMU’ selectivity average ACT is 23 Selectivity Level ACT SAT (Middle 50%) (Middle 50%) Highly selective 25–30 1710–2000 Selective 21–26 1470–1770 Traditional 18–24 1290–1650 Liberal 17–22 1230–1530 Open 16–21 1170–1480 Source: Compiled from ACT Institutional Data File, 2012. 2012. ACT, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0 0 63.7 53.9 48.2 93.4 78.3 62.7 53.6 62.2 88.4 80.2 69.9 44.8 66.2 93.9 84.4 74.2 75.1 71.6 0 25 50 75 100 Highly selective Selective Traditional Liberal Open AA BA MA Ph.D. First- to second-year retention rates for private institutions USM’s most recent rate is 64% Source: Compiled from ACT Institutional Data File, 2012. 2012. ACT, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 0.0 0.0
42 47.8 71.3 47.3 86.1 68.4 41.5 42.3 44.2 82.4 65.3 49.4 48.1 47.3 84.6 66.4 51.7 48.9 56.1 0 25 50 75 100 Highly selective Selective Traditional Liberal Open AA BA MA Ph.D. 0.0 USM’s graduation rate is 51.5 Source: Compiled from ACT Institutional Data File, 2012. 2012. ACT, Inc. All Rights Reserved. National graduation rates for private institutions
Questions and discussion
FOCUS MISSION on the & VISION
2014 Strategic Plan Mission & Vision Vision represents where we want to go. Mission is our raison d'être. It represents who we are.
Our Mission Educates students of diverse backgrounds to realize their God-given potential And prepares them for value-centered lives and careers That contribute to the well being of our global society.
Our Mission Educates students of diverse backgrounds to realize their God-given potential and prepares them for value-centered lives and careers that contribute to the well being of our global society. Is it still relevant? Is it appropriate for today?
Our Mission Educates students of diverse backgrounds to realize their God-given potential and prepares them for value-centered lives and careers that contribute to the well being of our global society. Are we fulfilling it? Where do we excel? Where do we fall short?
2014 Strategic Plan Mission & Vision Vision represents where we want to go. Mission is our raison d'être. It represents who we are.
2014 Strategic Plan 2006 Plan Vision Statement ―The University of Saint Mary will realize its mission through regional recognition for its nursing program, build synergy with the introduction of programs and strategic partnership in Allied Health, and foster financial stewardship to further promote and enhance its reputation of academic excellence.‖
2014 Strategic Plan 2011 Plan Vision Statement ―USM will advance its mission by continuing development of health science programs, improving student persistence rates, and enhancing facilities and technology infrastructure.‖
2014 Strategic Plan 2014 Vision
The Benefits of Visioning purpose breakingboundaries outside the box vision unique solutions laser-like focus commitment creativity
USM Administration
USM Board of Trustees
2014 Strategic Plan Envisioning the Future Forest PRODUCT DELIVERY BUSINESS MODEL Accountability Perceived Value Demand How Where-Online/Brick & Mortar When Tuition Loans & Aid Discounting
Envisioning the Future Forest Questions for Group Discussions ‗What opportunities and risks do you see for USM given the current business model/product/delivery methods?‘
Envisioning the Future Forest Questions for Group Discussions ‗Considering the characteristics of USM students and the demand for degrees, what are the implications for product/delivery/business model?‘
Envisioning the Future Forest Questions for Group Discussions ‗What challenges does the current environment pose to USM‘s business model/product/delivery? How do we address those challenges?‘

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Bot retreat april 2013 final2

  • 1.
    Focus on theFuture USM Board of Trustees‘ Retreat
  • 2.
  • 3.
    History & Background Itis wisdom to pause, to look back and see by what straight or twisting paths we have arrived at the place we find ourselves.‖ - Mother Xavier Ross
  • 4.
    History & Background FiscalYears 2000-2005 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Revenue Expenses Special Gift Expenditures exceeded revenues by $3.3 million. Expenditures will exceed revenues by $1.8 million. Operating Results
  • 5.
  • 6.
    2006 Strategic Plan Anew focus: Health Sciences and Fiscal Stability
  • 7.
  • 8.
    2006 Strategic Plan NursingPrograms Traditional on-campus BSN RN-to-BSN Accelerated BSN MSN Health Sciences
  • 9.
    2006 Strategic Plan HealthSciences 0 50 100 150 200 250 Fall '09 Fall '10 Fall '11 Fall '12 RN-to-BSN Pre-nursing Accel. BSN UG Nursing Nursing Programs Enrollment
  • 10.
    2006 Strategic Plan StefaniDoctor of Physical Therapy Director Mark Horacek hired in August 2009 Health Sciences Program granted CAPTE candidacy in May 2012.
  • 11.
    2006 Strategic Plan DPTProgram Enrollment Health Sciences 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 SU '12 SU '13 SU '14 Projected Projected
  • 12.
    2006 Strategic Plan HealthInformation Management (HIM) Director Don Kellogg hired in March 2012 In accreditation candidacy status with CAHIIM (HIM program accrediting body) Health Sciences
  • 13.
    2006 Strategic Plan HIMProgram Enrollment Health Sciences 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Fall '12 Fall '13 Fall '14 Projected Projected
  • 14.
    2006 Strategic Plan TotalHealth Sciences Enrollment Health Sciences 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Fall '09 Fall '10 Fall '11 Fall '12 RN-to-BSN Pre-nursing UG Nursing Accel. BSN DPT HIM
  • 15.
    2006 Strategic Plan Growthin Related Science Programs Biology is now the second most popular major at USM, behind only nursing Med School success stories: John Cothern and Tawana Evans Health Sciences
  • 16.
  • 17.
    2006 Strategic Plan FiscalStability Operating Results (FYE 2006-2013) 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 22,000,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Revenue Expenses Special Gift Expenditures exceeded revenues by $1.5 million. Revenues exceeded expenditures by $447,000. Expenditures will exceed revenues by $1.1 million.
  • 18.
    2006 Strategic Plan FiscalStability Undergraduate Main Campus Enrollment Growth 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Fall Semester FRESHMEN NEW TRANSFERS 116 Freshmen Total Full-Time, Main Campus Enrollment has increased by 181, or 50%, from Fall 2005 to 2012. TOTAL 199 Total New Students
  • 19.
    2006 Strategic Plan TotalEnrollment Fiscal Stability 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Fall Year 839 1,047 993 1,073 957 886 1,189 Doctorate FT Undergraduate PT Undergraduate OPC Grad All Online Online Program began in FYE 2007. Total student headcount increased by 372, or 46%, from Fall 2005 to Fall 2012. 817
  • 20.
    2006 Strategic Plan FiscalStability Other New Programs Cheer & Dance – Nearly 20 new students Cross Country/Track & Field – Over 30 new students Online Programs
  • 21.
    2006 Strategic Plan FiscalStability Online Programs Enrollment 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Fall '09 Fall '10 Fall '11 Fall '12 Fall '13 Projected
  • 22.
    2006 Strategic Plan FiscalStability Fall 2012 Enrollment Populations 573 151 150 116 162 37 FT Undergraduate PT Undergraduate Online Undergraduate OPC Graduate Online Graduate Doctorate Full-Time Undergraduate enrollment is about 48% of total enrollment for the Fall 2012 Semester. Graduates Undergraduates
  • 23.
    2006 Strategic Plan FiscalStability 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000 11,000,000 12,000,000 13,000,000 14,000,000 15,000,000 16,000,000 17,000,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 March 2013 Restricted Unrestricted Transfer The restricted endowment portion has increased from $6.1 million to $12.6 million, or 107%, from FYE 2006 to March $3.4 million $16,407,221 Endowment Growth
  • 24.
    2006 Strategic Plan ImprovedFacilities McGilley Field House Berkel Residence Hall New Construction
  • 25.
    2006 Strategic Plan ImprovedFacilities Renovations Mead Hall Nursing Student Services Berchmans Hall Health Sciences
  • 26.
  • 27.
    2011 Strategic Plan HealthSciences Improved Retention Facilities and Technology Infrastructure
  • 28.
    2011 Strategic Plan ImprovedRetention Improving Retention Rates First-time Full-time Freshmen Fall 2011 – 52% Fall 2012 – 65% Fall 2013 goal – 70%
  • 29.
    2011 Strategic Plan ImprovedRetention Athletes‘ GPA Athletes with a GPA above 3.0 Fall 2010: 50% Fall 2012: 61% Athletes with a GPA below 1.9 Fall 2010: 15% Fall 2012: 8%
  • 30.
    2011 Strategic Plan Facilitiesand Technology Infrastructure Berchmans as Health Sciences Headquarters Utilizing ‗The Cloud‘ Classroom Technology
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
    MOOCs What are they? Newweb-based tools/ ―platforms‖ What distinguishes them from traditional classes and makes them attractive? Unlimited enrollment, name recognition, and cost – they are free!
  • 34.
    MOOCs Four Comments onThose Observations 1. The originators are not accrediting their own courses 2. The originators were individual professors 3. Remaining free is not going to be sustainable 4. The completion rate is between 5% and 10%
  • 35.
    MOOCs Three Explanatory Notes 1.Most are asynchronous 2. A few are moving in a synchronous direction 3. Completion rate at 5% to 10%
  • 36.
  • 37.
    MOOCs The Promise andthe Apparent Reality of MOOCs MOOCs will transform teaching and learning ―The revolution is not about IT. It is about teaching and learning.‖
  • 38.
    MOOCs The Promise andthe Apparent Reality of MOOCs Although still a ―moving target‖ and not fully matured, MOOCs are not proving to be a disrupter, but rather ―just one spice among many online education spices.‖ The challenge of picking what spice or spices to use
  • 39.
    MOOCs Who Are theBiggest Users of MOOCs? People living outside the US Among US students: – Non-traditional students • Not enrolled in a degree program • Seeking to enhance their skills • Just intellectually curious
  • 40.
    MOOCs What Schools areMost Likely to be Affected, If Any? Potentially most affected: small, marginal, independent colleges Least likely: selective, well-established independent colleges Somewhere in the middle: the publics, including community colleges The California State University System Experiment
  • 41.
    MOOCs Some Unresolved Issues Wheredo MOOCs appear to be heading? Political pressure to expand educational opportunities and contain costs – will MOOCs fill the bill? The illusion of name brand Future costs
  • 42.
  • 43.
    MOOCs MOOCs May AlreadyBe Yesterday‘s News A note on competency-based learning What is it? What are its potential advantages? Western Governors University Southern New Hampshire University What are the potential liabilities?
  • 44.
    MOOCs Recommended Resources ―What youneed to know about MOOCs‖ on the Chronicle of Higher Education website http://chronicle.com/article/What-You-Need-to-Know-About/133475
  • 45.
    Current Environment Student Loan BubblePutting Hundreds of Colleges at Risk — Business Insider | August 2012 Colleges take extreme cost-cutting measures — CNN Money | March 2012 Does It Still Make Sense to Borrow to Pay for College? — The Daily Ticker | April 2012
  • 46.
    Strategic Enrollment Traditional EnrollmentPlanning Annual Scope Focus on the Admissions Department Administration AthleticsAdmissions Academics
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
    The Imperative ofStrategic Enrollment Planning Rob Baird Senior Vice President and Principal
  • 50.
  • 51.
    What will benecessary to change in our enrollment processes, priorities and systems to achieve our enrollment goals and respond to the institutional strategic plan within an ever changing environment?
  • 52.
     Increasing enrollment? Improving gross and net revenue?  Filling under enrolled programs?  Improving geographical representation?  Improving diversity  Improving retention  Attracting better qualified students (more likely to persist)  Improving efficiency and effectiveness of operations?  Determining and responding to program demand locally, regionally, and/or nationally  Improving awareness, image, and perception of the institution?  Professional staff development and ongoing training in state-of-the-art enrollment management practices?  Introducing and enhancing the ‘breakthrough enrollment technologies and systems?”  Other Key Questions to Consider
  • 53.
    My institution hasa written, long- range strategic enrollment plan Percent of respondents in agreement Type of institution Yes Yes and it’s of excellent quality* Four-year private 69.5% 18.0% Four-year public 64.6% 23.1% Two-year public 61.4% 4.5% *Indicates the percentage of respondents who rated the quality of their plan “excellent” as opposed to “good,” “fair,” “poor,” or “no” (nonexistent) © 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc. 2011 Marketing and Student Recruitment Practices at Four- Year and Two-Year Institutions
  • 54.
    Nearly 40 years;60+ consultants; 500 years experience; 2,700 campuses served
  • 55.
  • 57.
  • 58.
    Six megatrends facinghigher education Enrollment growth will slow Demographic shifts Retention and completion pressures will intensify Changing economic model Impact of technology on communicating with students Managing new learning modalities
  • 59.
    Higher education’s compoundedannual growth rates is expected to drop by 39 percent from 1.8 to 1.1 percent 5.6% 1.1% 1963-1980 1980-2009 2009-2020 1.8% NCES Projections of Education Statistics to 2020 ( 2011); p. 62
  • 60.
    We are atthe beginning of a long slump for future freshman classes 4,200,000 4,300,000 4,400,000 4,500,000 4,600,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Data Source: Population Projections Branch of the U.S. Census Bureau Projected Number of 18-Year Olds: United States
  • 61.
    $75,486 $68,961 $39,538 $38,500 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 Asian WhiteHispanic African American Hispanic and African American families have median incomes that are approximately 57 percent of white families Trends in College Pricing, 2011. © 2011. The College Board. Reproduced with permission. www.collegeboard.com.
  • 62.
    Projected percentage changein the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 2007-08 through 2020-21 Source: IES
  • 63.
    † In-state institutionsreceiving the largest number of in-state freshmen. †† Competition factor equals college continuation rate less number of students migrating and the three in-state institutions receiving the largest number of in- state freshmen. Kansas: The competition factor 32,289 high school seniors / 2012-13* 67 institutions of higher education** 64.7% college continuation rate (20,891)*** (ranks 17th among states) 15.6% leave the state to go to college (3,262)**** (ranks 31st among states) Three Largest Institutions†***** Number of In-state Freshmen***** Kansas State University 2,763 University of Kansas 2,467 Johnson County Community College 1,445 10,954 students ÷ 64 institutions = 171 students per institution†† Sources: *Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door, 2012 **The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2012 ***Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Chance for College by Age 19 by State 1986-2010, 2013 ****Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Interstate Migration of College Freshmen 1986-2010, 2012 *****National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey (2010)
  • 64.
    † In-state institutionsreceiving the largest number of in-state freshmen. †† Competition factor equals college continuation rate less number of students migrating and the three in-state institutions receiving the largest number of in- state freshmen. Sources: *Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2008 **The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2010 ***Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2010 ****Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Interstate Migration Data, 2010 *****National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey (2010) Missouri: The competition factor 65,304 high school seniors / 2011-12* 132 institutions of higher education** 60.0% college continuation rate (39,182)*** (ranks 33rd among states) 17.7% leave the state to go to college (6,933)**** (ranks 29th among states) Three Largest Institutions†***** Number of In-state Freshmen***** University of Missouri – Columbia 4,297 Missouri State University – Springfield 2,279 Ozarks Technical Community College 2,037 23,636 students ÷ 129 institutions = 183 students per institution††
  • 65.
    † In-state institutionsreceiving the largest number of in-state freshmen. †† Competition factor equals college continuation rate less number of students migrating and the three in-state institutions receiving the largest number of in- state freshmen. Sources: *Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2008 **The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2010 ***Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2010 ****Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Interstate Migration Data, 2010 *****National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey (2010) Nebraska: The competition factor 21,176 high school seniors / 2011-12* 43 institutions of higher education** 65.5% college continuation rate (13,870)*** (ranks 18th among states) 19.1% leave the state to go to college (2,648)**** (ranks 25th among states) Three Largest Institutions†***** Number of In-state Freshmen***** University of Nebraska – Lincoln 3,189 University of Nebraska at Omaha 1,539 Southeast Community College Area 1,082 5,412 students ÷ 40 institutions = 135 students per institution††
  • 66.
    † In-state institutionsreceiving the largest number of in-state freshmen. †† Competition factor equals college continuation rate less number of students migrating and the three in-state institutions receiving the largest number of in- state freshmen. Sources: *Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2008 **The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2010 ***Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2010 ****Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Interstate Migration Data, 2010 *****National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey (2010) Texas: The competition factor 279,129 high school seniors / 2011-12* 240 institutions of higher education** 56.9% college continuation rate (158,824)*** (ranks 41st among states) 11.7% leave the state to go to college (18,617)**** (ranks 40th among states) Three Largest Institutions†***** Number of In-state Freshmen***** Texas A & M University – College Station 7,809 The University of Texas at Austin 6,368 The University of Texas at San Antonio 4,721 121,309 students ÷ 237 institutions = 512 students per institution††
  • 67.
    • 60 percentof all four-year institutions want larger freshman classes • 56 percent of all four-year colleges want better freshman classes • 52 percent want a more ethnically diverse student body Institutions are facing never-ending expectations
  • 68.
    Miles from home 4.8% 6.2% 26.3% 17.4% 31.4% 14.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 5or less 6 to 10 11 to 50 51 to 100 101 to 500 Over 500 © 2012 The Regents of the University of California. All Rights Reserved.
  • 69.
    Percentage of studentssatisfied or very satisfied with their overall experience © 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc. 2011 National Student Satisfaction and Priorities Report 57% 54% 61% 53% 48% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 60% 62% Four-year privates Four-year publics Community colleges Career schools
  • 70.
  • 71.
    Importance factors in thedecision to enroll
  • 72.
    Four-year private enrollment factors Item2009-10 Importance Percentage 1994-95 Importance Percentage Shift Financial aid 81.0% 75.9% 5.1% Academic reputation 78.8% 78.9% -0.1% Cost 74.3% 67.5% 6.8% Personal attention prior to enrollment 64.6% 60.5% 4.1% Geographic setting 57.4% 53.3% 4.1% Campus appearance 57.4% 51.8% 5.6% Size of institution 56.4% 65.1% -8.7% Recommendations from family/friends 42.7% 39.9% 2.8% Opportunity to play sports 26.7% 24.6% 2.1% © Noel-Levitz, Inc. The National Student Satisfaction and Priorities 15-Year Trend Report: Four-Year Private Colleges and Universities
  • 73.
    What content mattersmost to them at this point? 1. A list of academic programs or degrees 2. Cost/tuition/fees 3. Academic program details 4. Admissions requirements 5. Financial aid 6. Scholarships 7. Student life 8. Career options 9. Student activities 10. Ways to connect with admissions © Noel-Levitz, Inc. E-Expectations 2010: Focusing Your E-Recruitment Efforts to Meet the Expectations of College-Bound Students
  • 74.
    Impact of theeconomic crisis on student college planning • 46% report that the current economic crisis has caused them to reconsider the schools to which they apply or may attend (up from 34% last year) – Avoiding private school options—26% (11%) – Commuting instead of living on campus—25% (13%) – Working while going to school—25% (21%) – Attending a community or technical college—19% (21%) – Vo-tech instead of traditional—4% (2%) – Part-time attendance instead of full-time—1% (7%) – Not attending college at all—1% (2%) © Noel-Levitz, Inc. E-Expectations Report: Focusing Your E-Recruitment Efforts to Meet the Expectations of College-Bound Students
  • 75.
    What is thehighest academic degree you intend to obtain? 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% 21.4% 42.0% 19.1% 10.2% 4.2% 0.2% 1.3% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% NoneVocational certificateAA BA, BS MA, MS PhD or EdDMD, DO, DDS, DVM JD BD or MDIV Other © 2012 The Regents of the University of California. All Rights Reserved.
  • 76.
    Number of othercolleges applied to for admission this year 12.2% 8.8% 11.7% 14.7% 13.3% 10.5% 7.9% 16.4% 4.6% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% None 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 to 10 11 or more © 2012 The Regents of the University of California. All Rights Reserved.
  • 77.
    The college attendedis the student’s… 57.9% 27.0% 9.7% 5.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% First choice Second choice Third choice Less than third choice © 2012 The Regents of the University of California. All Rights Reserved.
  • 78.
    Can you thinkof a specific school you have taken off your list because of the experience you had with the Web site? Why pay close attention to your Web site? Yes 24% Noel-Levitz, E-Expectations survey of 1,043 college-bound seniors ©2010
  • 79.
    Approximate cost tomaintain admissions Web presence © 2012 Noel-Levitz, Inc.
  • 80.
    Mobile gap 52% ofcollege- bound students have looked at a college Web site on a mobile phone or tablet Less than 40% of colleges offer Web sites that are optimized for mobile browsing © 2012 Noel-Levitz, Inc. 2012 E-Recruiting Practices and Trends at Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions
  • 81.
  • 82.
    Effective search campaignsinclude multiple contacts. Sending a search mailer and waiting for a response typically does not work with today’s prospective students. © 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc. 2011 Marketing and Student Recruitment Practices at Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions
  • 83.
    Cost to recruita single student *Limited sample size for this sector. © 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc. 2011 Cost of Recruiting an Undergraduate Student: Benchmarks for Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions $1,364 $342 $37 $2,185 $457 $108 $3,172 $642 $313 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 Four-year private Four-year public Two-year public* 25th percentile Median cost 75th percentile
  • 84.
    Median number ofnew students enrolled per FTE employee in recruitment or admissions *Limited sample size for this sector © 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc. 2011 Cost of Recruiting an Undergraduate Student: Benchmarks for Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions 33 117 328 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Four-year private Four-year public Two-year public*
  • 85.
    Median number ofnew students enrolled per FTE outreach employee *Limited sample size for this sector. © 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc. 2011 Cost of Recruiting an Undergraduate Student: Benchmarks for Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions 57 256 533 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Four-year private Four-year public Two-year public*
  • 86.
    Marketing and Recruitment Plan Developannual and long-range as well as retention and recruitment plans – for each market segment
  • 87.
    What is What isstrategic enrollment planning (SEP)?
  • 88.
    Strategic Enrollment Planning… • Involves the campus in identifying, prioritizing, implementing, evaluating, an d modifying enrollment strategies and goals within a changing environment in order to effectively and efficiently :  Realize the institution’s mission and vision, and  Support the institution’s capabilities to recruit and maximally serve students currently and in the future.
  • 89.
    Effective organization models Strategic plan Mission Vision Institutional Effectiveness StrategicEnrollment Plan KPI Strategies Enrollment Goals Annual Plans Marketing Recruitment Success and Completion (PPRC/G)
  • 90.
    The value ofnot planning The nicest thing about not planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise and is not preceded by a period of worry and depression. “ “ John Preston Boston College
  • 91.
    How does thestrategic enrollment planning model differ from the traditional planning model?
  • 92.
    Strategic Planning = Align organizationwith its environment to promote stability and survival Traditional Planning = Set goals then develop steps to achieve those goals
  • 93.
    • Provides realisticquantifiable goals • Uses a return-on-investment (ROI) and action item approach • Aligns the institution’s mission, current state, and changing environment to foster planned long-term enrollment and fiscal health Strategic enrollment planning is continuous and data-informed
  • 94.
    Connects your goalsto: • Product (academic, co-curricular, services, support) • Place (on-site, off-site, online, hybrid) • Price and Revenue (tuition, fees, discounts, incentives) • Promotion (marketing, recruitment, Web presence) • Purpose and Identity (mission, distinctiveness, brand) • Process (data-informed, integrated planning) Strategic enrollment planning
  • 95.
    Integration of allelements of SEM as part of the development of a Strategic Enrollment Management Plan SEP • Academic Plans • Marketing Plan • Student Success Plan • Recruitment Plan Target new student enrollment goals or new market penetration PPRC/G Start, Grow, Maintain, Eli minate programs Linking internal and external communications Strategic enrolment Plan
  • 96.
    Organizing for strategicplanning Institutional Strategic Plan Strategic Enrollment Plan Recruitment Planning Committee Marketing Planning Committee Retention Planning Committee Clear goals Key strategies Detailed Action Plans Objectives Timetables Responsibility Budgets Evaluation
  • 97.
    Communication is key tosuccess • Preparation • Data Collection • Key Performance Indicators • Situation Analysis Phase One: Data Analysis • Strategy Development • Tactics Identified • Strategy Prioritization Phase Two: Strategies • ROI Considerations • Enrollment Projection • Goal Setting • Finalize Written Plan Phase Three Enrollment Goals • Implementation of Plan • Form Strategic EM Council Phase Four: Implementation Introduction to the SEP phases:
  • 98.
    Sample Table ofContents for the finalized SEP plan Introduction and Executive Summary Organizational Structure for Planning and Foci Situation Analysis Mission, Vision, Key Performance Indicators, Planning Assumptions, Strategies and Priorities for action Enrollment goals, projections, and return on investments Future structure to monitor enrollment management Summary
  • 99.
    Key Performance Indicators Enrollment External Marketdemand Selectivity DiversityTrue Capacity Pricing and Net Costs Persistence & Graduation Experience & Engagement Possible indicators
  • 100.
    Strategic Enrollment ManagementCouncil (SEMC) Goals • Assesses progress towards goal obtainment KPI • Monitors KPIs Strategy Implementation • Sets priorities and budget dollars linked to priorities to accomplish goals
  • 101.
    Typical elements ina strategic enrollment plan
  • 102.
    • Resources • Dollars •Time • Staff • Technology • Expected level of strategy impact • Priority to accomplishing enrollment projection • Campus readiness for implementation ROI strategy analysis
  • 103.
    A multi-year toolshould have the ability to model the following items: • Enrollment (first-year, transfer, full-time, part-time, etc.) • Direct cost – tuition and fees (sometimes room and/or board) • Residency • Retention • Revenue and institutional aid annualization/realization − Annualization factors adjust for revenue due to mid-year attrition (i.e., who you lose after fall and pick up in spring) − Annualization factors allow you to estimate annual revenues and expenditures from fall term enrollment − For example, if the presence of one freshman in the fall term indicates that you will collect 99% of an FTE annual tuition (when in-year attrition and subsequent term enrollees are considered), the annualization factor for tuition revenue for freshmen would be 99% • Model institutional aid (funded and unfunded), discount rate, and net revenue by class as well as on the aggregate
  • 104.
    Scenarios provide comparisons ©Noel-Levitz, Inc. All rights reserved Noel-Levitz University Current Date: February 28, 2012 Last Modified Date: Enrollment Projections Combining All Scenarios January 30, 2011 Model #1: Full-time/Bachelors Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020 Freshmen 458 462 463 463 463 463 463 463 463 463 463 Sophomore 270 300 305 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 Junior 220 228 247 252 253 253 253 253 253 253 253 Senior 228 232 240 255 261 262 262 262 262 262 262 Total 1,176 1,222 1,255 1,276 1,283 1,284 1,284 1,284 1,284 1,284 1,284 Scenario #2: 5% increase in new; 5% increase in retention Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020 Freshmen 458 462 471 486 503 520 539 558 578 600 622 Sophomore 270 300 329 337 346 356 366 377 388 400 413 Junior 220 228 248 269 276 282 290 297 305 314 323 Senior 228 232 242 260 278 286 292 299 306 313 321 Total 1,176 1,222 1,290 1,352 1,403 1,444 1,487 1,531 1,577 1,627 1,679 Scenario 3: 5% new student every other year; plus 5% retention increase in 2012; 1% in 2013, 2% in 2014 Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020 Freshmen 458 462 463 476 478 492 494 508 511 526 544 Sophomore 270 300 328 313 323 320 327 328 335 338 346 Junior 220 228 247 267 259 265 264 268 271 275 278 Senior 228 232 241 258 273 270 274 275 277 281 283 Total 1,176 1,222 1,279 1,314 1,333 1,347 1,359 1,379 1,394 1,420 1,451
  • 105.
    Factoring in FinancialAid © Noel-Levitz, Inc. All rights reserved 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 Actual Projected Projected Projected Projected Total Enrollment 2367 2536 2625 2760 2923 Tuition revenue $43,769,546 $49,307,508 $53,364,871 $58,856,214 $65,384,548 Required fee revenue $1,576,470 $1,846,357 $1,930,236 $2,129,487 $2,365,672 Room/board revenue $15,208,685 $16,581,903 $18,066,523 $19,988,345 $22,202,265 Other charges $443,767 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total revenue $60,998,468 $67,735,768 $73,361,630 $80,974,046 $89,952,485 Unfunded gift aid - tuition $16,636,731 $20,337,206 $22,943,014 $26,558,534 $29,017,554 Unfunded gift aid - room/board $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Funded gift aid $3,437,548 $2,975,000 $2,975,000 $2,175,000 $2,175,000 Total institutional gift $20,074,279 $23,312,206 $25,918,014 $28,733,534 $31,192,554 Employee dependent waivers $1,863,153 $1,812,496 $1,652,158 $1,510,827 $1,474,210 Net Tuition Revenue (NACUBO) $25,271,737 $27,841,659 $29,377,093 $32,252,167 $36,557,666 Overall unfunded net revenue $42,498,584 $45,586,066 $48,766,458 $52,904,685 $59,460,721 Tuition Discount Rate (NACUBO) 44.3% 45.6% 46.9% 47.1% 46.0% Overall unfunded discount 28.1% 30.8% 32.0% 33.4% 32.8% Summary of Annual Results ABC University Projection of Undergraduate Enrollment, Net Revenue and Discount for the Incoming through 2013-2014 Academic Years
  • 106.
    End Result © Noel-Levitz,Inc. All rights reserved Noel-Levitz University Current Date: February 28, 2012 Last Modified Date: Revenue Projections Combining All Scenarios January 30, 2011 Model #1: Full-time/Bachelors Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020 Tuition Revenue Based on Enrollment and/Student Revenue Freshmen $5,086,620 $5,352,512 $5,620,137 $5,901,144 $6,196,201 $6,506,011 $6,831,312 $7,172,877 $7,531,521 $7,908,097 Sophomore $3,854,700 $4,114,892 $4,334,803 $4,551,543 $4,779,120 $5,018,076 $5,268,980 $5,532,429 $5,809,050 $6,099,503 Junior $2,945,760 $3,350,802 $3,589,564 $3,783,998 $3,973,198 $4,171,858 $4,380,451 $4,599,474 $4,829,447 $5,070,920 Senior $2,856,152 $3,102,372 $3,461,084 $3,719,647 $3,920,594 $4,116,623 $4,322,454 $4,538,577 $4,765,506 $5,003,781 Total $14,743,232 $15,920,578 $17,005,587 $17,956,332 $18,869,113 $19,812,569 $20,803,197 $21,843,357 $22,935,525 $24,082,301 Scenario #2: 5% increase in new; 5% increase in retention Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020 Tuition Revenue Based on Enrollment and/Student Revenue Freshmen $5,086,620 $5,444,996 $5,899,323 $6,410,962 $6,959,016 $7,573,953 $8,232,985 $8,954,478 $9,760,071 $10,623,837 Sophomore $3,854,700 $4,438,687 $4,773,950 $5,146,516 $5,560,022 $6,002,013 $6,491,521 $7,014,975 $7,593,530 $8,232,336 Junior $2,945,760 $3,364,368 $3,831,717 $4,127,998 $4,428,624 $4,781,972 $5,142,269 $5,544,820 $5,993,859 $6,473,941 Senior $2,856,152 $3,128,225 $3,528,948 $3,961,923 $4,279,732 $4,587,992 $4,932,877 $5,300,781 $5,693,143 $6,130,587 Total $14,743,232 $16,376,276 $18,033,938 $19,647,399 $21,227,395 $22,945,929 $24,799,652 $26,815,054 $29,040,603 $31,460,700 Scenario 3: 5% new student every other year; plus 5% retention increase in 2012; 1% in 2013, 2% in 2014 Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020 Tuition Revenue Based on Enrollment and/Student Revenue Freshmen $5,086,620 $5,352,512 $5,777,938 $6,092,326 $6,584,300 $6,941,619 $7,495,262 $7,916,502 $8,556,329 $9,291,587 Sophomore $3,854,700 $4,425,196 $4,433,965 $4,804,407 $4,997,773 $5,362,454 $5,647,796 $6,056,744 $6,416,533 $6,896,824 Junior $2,945,760 $3,350,802 $3,803,228 $3,873,737 $4,161,650 $4,353,243 $4,640,162 $4,926,709 $5,249,399 $5,571,999 Senior $2,856,152 $3,115,299 $3,501,802 $3,890,665 $4,040,306 $4,305,171 $4,536,927 $4,798,419 $5,111,096 $5,404,848 Total $14,743,232 $16,243,808 $17,516,933 $18,661,135 $19,784,029 $20,962,487 $22,320,147 $23,698,374 $25,333,357 $27,165,257
  • 107.
    Five points toremember relative to calculating and communicating ROI 1. Optimal number of students for your capacity 2. The desired characteristics of sub-groups of your students as well as overall 3. Achieve a targeted net revenue goal by sub-populations of your students 4. Control the institution’s discount rate/financial aid expenditures 5. Understand the retention implications of your current enrollment initiatives, both in terms of recruitment of populations as well as awarding strategies
  • 108.
  • 109.
    Evaluating the economicsof programs – strategic response Manage Grow or build StartReduce or eliminate Enrollmentas%ofCapacity Net Operating Income Per Student
  • 110.
    The quality perceptionof Group A schools is relatively weak; in fact, they are almost indistinguishable from the community colleges
  • 111.
    Job placement andprogression to graduate school Year Survey Response Placement Rate Employed Graduate or Professional School 2009 80.4% 96.0% 57.1% 38.9% 2008 79.5% 94.0% 53.0% 41.0% 2007 79.0% 97.8% 56.5% 41.3% 2006 77.6% 96.6% 54.9% 41.7% 2005 70.0% 94.4% 46.9% 47.5%
  • 112.
    Assessing alumni satisfaction Notat All Satisfied/Not Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Satisfied/ Very Satisfied My Sample U education prepared me well for my first real job after graduation. 12% 17% 71% My Sample U education prepared me well for graduate school. 5% 10% 85% In general, the tuition I paid for my education was a worthwhile investment. 6% 14% 80%
  • 113.
    Competition, market demand, programstrength Program: What we do best -- Authenticity Market Demand: What students want -- Relevance Competition: Unoccupied market positions -- Differentiation
  • 114.
    Adams State College AngeloState University Arkansas State University- Main Campus Arkansas Tech University Auburn University at Montgomery Boise State University Cameron University Central Washington University Delta State University Eastern Washington University Emporia State University Fort Hays State University Henderson State University Indiana University- Northwest Indiana University- Purdue University- Fort Wayne Indiana University- South Bend Louisiana State University- Shreveport Minnesota State University Moorhead Missouri Southern State University Missouri State University- Springfield Missouri Western State University Montana State University- Billings Morehead State University Northern Kentucky University Northern State University X university Net Price High Cost Low Selectivity Low Cost High Selectivity High Cost High Selectivity Low Cost Low Selectivity Selectivity National Center for Education Statistics. Data Feedback Report 2012.
  • 115.
    Occupations with thelargest numerical growth requiring at least a BA 2008-18 Occupation # of New Jobs % Change 2008 Median Wage Registered Nurse* 581,500 22% $62,450 Accountants and auditors 279,400 22% $59,430 Postsecondary teachers 256,900 15% $58,830 Elementary school teachers 244,200 16% $49,330 Management analysts 178,300 24% $73,750 Computer software engineers, applications 175,100 34% $85,430 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition http://www/bls.gov/oco/ * Only requires an AA
  • 116.
    Occupations with thelargest numerical growth requiring at least a BA 2008-18 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition http://www/bls.gov/oco/ Occupation % Change # of New Jobs 2008 Median Wage Biomedical engineers 72% 11,600 $77,400 Network systems and data communications analysts 53% 155,800 $71,000 Financial examiners 41% 11,100 $70,930 Medical scientists 40% 44,200 $72,590 Physician assistants 39% 29,200 $81,250 Biochemists and biophysicists 37% 8,700 $82,840 Athletic trainers 37% 6,000 $39,640 Computer software engineers 34% 175,100 $85,430 Veterinarians 33% 19,700 $79,050
  • 117.
    Sample University’s out-of-statemarket: All students with B+ and above GPA OH IN IL MD VA NJ PA TN WV MO TX Medical Physician 11,144 5,733 11,739 4,596 6,790 7,782 11,866 6,587 2,190 5,871 27,502 Nursing/Health Care 7,906 4,362 7,760 3,393 4,393 3,741 7,937 4,985 1,548 3,300 20,128 Lawyer/Legal Services 5,173 2,417 6,538 3,091 3,802 5,217 6,633 2,861 646 2,912 13,203 Engineering (General) 4,171 2,034 4,476 2,413 2,735 3,597 4,943 1,897 610 2,327 11,721Law Enforcement/Criminal Justice 2,977 1,474 3,868 1,839 2,081 2,916 4,106 1,680 467 1,279 8,324 Business Owner/Entrepreneur 3,151 1,430 3,275 1,916 2,350 2,445 4,128 1,731 344 1,699 8,476 Architecture 3,245 1,497 3,744 1,501 2,096 2,720 3,674 1,251 382 1,626 8,282 Culinary/Chef 2,992 1,245 3,672 1,720 2,040 2,476 3,545 1,437 468 1,730 7,187 Athletics/Coaching 2,875 1,319 3,112 1,324 1,732 1,815 3,297 1,500 409 1,426 7,375 Engineering (Mechanical) 2,774 1,417 2,639 1,200 1,791 1,607 2,811 1,393 481 1,103 7,447 Physical Therapy 3,382 1,657 2,875 937 1,586 1,470 3,784 1,769 696 1,290 3,855 Child Care/Development 2,448 1,127 2,802 1,240 1,474 1,631 3,166 1,558 367 1,498 5,959 Sports Medicine 3,286 1,328 2,343 1,292 1,893 1,523 3,196 1,590 532 1,236 4,614 Veterinary Medicine 2,350 1,330 2,040 936 1,483 1,004 2,264 1,232 428 1,144 5,257 Military Science 2,267 894 2,179 1,106 1,809 1,671 2,456 1,255 308 1,114 4,142 Engineering (Electrical) 1,862 956 2,079 1,254 1,446 1,362 2,106 1,038 416 815 5,767 Pharmacy 2,164 1,211 2,109 536 1,054 1,286 2,567 1,433 579 919 4,443 Photography/Video/Film 1,821 1,041 2,225 984 1,360 1,417 2,373 947 287 871 4,793 Graphic Arts/Design 1,880 900 2,122 991 1,153 1,504 2,331 856 254 967 4,598 Fashion Merchandising 1,447 559 1,758 1,047 1,239 1,508 1,822 659 133 730 4,506 States Majors
  • 118.
    USM’s admission selectivityaverage ACT is 23 Selectivity Level ACT SAT (Middle 50%) (Middle 50%) Highly selective 25–30 1710–2000 Selective 21–26 1470–1770 Traditional 18–24 1290–1650 Liberal 17–22 1230–1530 Open 16–21 1170–1480 Source: Compiled from ACT Institutional Data File, 2012. 2012. ACT, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 119.
    SMU’ selectivity averageACT is 23 Selectivity Level ACT SAT (Middle 50%) (Middle 50%) Highly selective 25–30 1710–2000 Selective 21–26 1470–1770 Traditional 18–24 1290–1650 Liberal 17–22 1230–1530 Open 16–21 1170–1480 Source: Compiled from ACT Institutional Data File, 2012. 2012. ACT, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 120.
    0 0 63.7 53.9 48.2 93.4 78.3 62.7 53.6 62.2 88.4 80.2 69.9 44.8 66.2 93.9 84.4 74.2 75.1 71.6 0 25 50 75 100 Highly selectiveSelective Traditional Liberal Open AA BA MA Ph.D. First- to second-year retention rates for private institutions USM’s most recent rate is 64% Source: Compiled from ACT Institutional Data File, 2012. 2012. ACT, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 0.0 0.0
  • 121.
    42 47.8 71.3 47.3 86.1 68.4 41.5 42.3 44.2 82.4 65.3 49.448.1 47.3 84.6 66.4 51.7 48.9 56.1 0 25 50 75 100 Highly selective Selective Traditional Liberal Open AA BA MA Ph.D. 0.0 USM’s graduation rate is 51.5 Source: Compiled from ACT Institutional Data File, 2012. 2012. ACT, Inc. All Rights Reserved. National graduation rates for private institutions
  • 123.
  • 124.
  • 125.
    2014 Strategic Plan Mission& Vision Vision represents where we want to go. Mission is our raison d'être. It represents who we are.
  • 126.
    Our Mission Educates studentsof diverse backgrounds to realize their God-given potential And prepares them for value-centered lives and careers That contribute to the well being of our global society.
  • 127.
    Our Mission Educates studentsof diverse backgrounds to realize their God-given potential and prepares them for value-centered lives and careers that contribute to the well being of our global society. Is it still relevant? Is it appropriate for today?
  • 128.
    Our Mission Educates studentsof diverse backgrounds to realize their God-given potential and prepares them for value-centered lives and careers that contribute to the well being of our global society. Are we fulfilling it? Where do we excel? Where do we fall short?
  • 129.
    2014 Strategic Plan Mission& Vision Vision represents where we want to go. Mission is our raison d'être. It represents who we are.
  • 130.
    2014 Strategic Plan 2006Plan Vision Statement ―The University of Saint Mary will realize its mission through regional recognition for its nursing program, build synergy with the introduction of programs and strategic partnership in Allied Health, and foster financial stewardship to further promote and enhance its reputation of academic excellence.‖
  • 131.
    2014 Strategic Plan 2011Plan Vision Statement ―USM will advance its mission by continuing development of health science programs, improving student persistence rates, and enhancing facilities and technology infrastructure.‖
  • 132.
  • 133.
    The Benefits ofVisioning purpose breakingboundaries outside the box vision unique solutions laser-like focus commitment creativity
  • 134.
  • 135.
    USM Board ofTrustees
  • 136.
    2014 Strategic Plan Envisioningthe Future Forest PRODUCT DELIVERY BUSINESS MODEL Accountability Perceived Value Demand How Where-Online/Brick & Mortar When Tuition Loans & Aid Discounting
  • 137.
    Envisioning the FutureForest Questions for Group Discussions ‗What opportunities and risks do you see for USM given the current business model/product/delivery methods?‘
  • 138.
    Envisioning the FutureForest Questions for Group Discussions ‗Considering the characteristics of USM students and the demand for degrees, what are the implications for product/delivery/business model?‘
  • 139.
    Envisioning the FutureForest Questions for Group Discussions ‗What challenges does the current environment pose to USM‘s business model/product/delivery? How do we address those challenges?‘

Editor's Notes

  • #54 Even though the majority of schools report having written annual and long-range plans, a significant number fail to rate their plans as good or excellent.
  • #70 Approximately 40% of students are dissatisfied nationally. Two-year publics have higher overall satisfaction than the other sectors.
  • #73 The 15-year Study – SSI SuiteSSI first available in 1994-95Looking at the results across all 15 years, including a special comparison of the original academic year of data with the more recent 2009-10 academic year to see what has shifted over timeThe SSI has been completed by more than 2,400 four-year and two-year, public, and private institutions over 15 yearsNational reports can be found at www.noellevitz.com/benchmark
  • #80 Nearly 2/3 of 4yr institutions and more than 90% of 2yr institutions are now spending less than $25K to maintain admissions-specific content and services on their institution’s Web site.