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28-29 October, 2013, Amsterdam
RealOptions
Jerry de Leeuw
Course Leader
This is a practical, hands-on course
in Real Options, which we’ve
constructed to be within the grasp of
non-mathematical experts.
Introduction
We designed this two day course specifically to instruct
participants in the areas of outright, embedded and real
options, physical assets, hedging future cash flows of
assets, optimization of allocation of assets, flexibility,
pricing of options, valuation of real options and Greek
variables as indicators for sensitivities.
The course is about real options and while statistics are
important in this area of expertise and there is a bit of
mathematics in the course material, in this course things
are explained so that everybody will be able to understand,
regardless of their mathematical abilities.This does not
affect the level of the course in any negative way, but allows
us to explain all subjects in an even more in-depth manner
than you can imagine.
Learning objectives
Acquiring insight and knowledge of:
▶ Option and options theory
▶ Options valuation and valuation of physical assets
▶ Scenario analysis
▶ Sensitivity analysis of cash flows
▶ Greeks variables
OURSOURSOURS Who should attend?
This program was specifically developed for Traders,
Asset & Portfolio managers, Quants, Risk managers and
Analysts, but more it is also suitable to and helpful for:
▶ Front, Mid and Back office staff
▶ Originators
▶ ICT experts and Project managers
▶ Legal staff and Compliance officers
▶ Staff of the Finance department
▶ Controllers and Accountants
Training
The training is based on a strong interactive approach
in which the contribution of participants is of utmost
importance.Theory and practice are explained and
expounded using official definitions, scientific theories,
practical exercises, cases and simulations.
Documentation
Participants will be provided with a syllabus with study
material for this specific program.The syllabus contains
all relevant documents including power point slides, fact
sheets, cases and exercises.
RealOptions
AGENDAAGENDAAGENDA
Program
DAY 1
Session 1:
Options
▶ Call & put options
▷ Premium
▷ Strike price
▷ Options style
▪ American, European & Asian Style, and more
▪ Plain vanilla versus Exotic options
▶ Options
▶ Outright options
▶ Embedded options
▶ Real options
▶ Flexibility as option
▷ 1-sided right vs. 2-sided obligation
▷ The real options approach
Session 2:
Option valuation
▶ Valuation models
▷ Black & Scholes
▷ Binomial models
▪ Trees
▶ Disadvantages of models
▷ Assumptions do not represent real life
▶ Skew
▷ Skewness of normal distributed curve
▷ Tail risk
▷ Volatility smile
▷ Positive skew
▷ Negative skew
▶ Kurtosis
▷ Lepto-kurtosis
▷ Height of the mean
▶ Impact on options premiums
▷ Volatility curve
▷ Volatility smile
Exercises
▶ Calculation of option value via binomial tree
▶ Calculation of option value with normal distribution
▶ Calculation of option value with log-normal distribution
▶ Calculation of option value with skew
Session 3:
Power plants as real options
▶ Power plants as sequence of call options on the spark/
dark spread
▶ Asset-backed trading
▷ Spark spread optimization
▷ Delta hedging
▷ Strategy to lock in
▷ Dynamic hedging
▷ Objective approach
▷ Subjective approach
▪ Under/over-hedging
▷ Value of real option
▪ Time value
▪ Intrinsic value
▪ Volatility of the spark spread
Exercise:
Power plants as real options
Session 4:
Gas storages
▶ Gas storage
▷ Sequence of time-spread options
▶ Locking in the value of the gas asset
▷ Hedging process
▪ Setting up hedge
- Choose amount/significance
▪ Unwinding hedge
- Choose significance
▪ Repeat sequence
▪ Timing as critical element
▪ View on the market
Exercise: Gas storage valuation
Simulation: Trading simulation to lock in and optimize
asset value
Excel: Option with 2 legs, 2 prices & 2 volatilities
LOURSOURSOURSProgram
DAY 2
Session 5:
Transport capacity as real options
▶ Gas transport capacity
▷ String of location-spread options
▶ Power transport capacity
▷ Series of location-spread options
▶ Basis trading
▷ Trading the basis
Session 6:
Greek variables
▶ Sensitivity analysis
▷ Delta; What is it? What is its interpretation? How to apply
to assets?
▷ Gamma; What is it? What is its interpretation? How to
apply?
▷ Vega; the impact of volatility
▷ Theta; premium decay over time
▷ Rho; interest rate sensitivity
▶ Scenario analysis versus sensitivity analysis
▶ Combined reporting
▶ Matrix
Simulation:
Trading options & managing flexibility in energy portfolios
Session 7:
Managing Greeks in large portfolios
– Part 1
▶ Creating an overview of all Greeks
▶ Combining this overview with scenario analysis
▶ Steering exposures by doing transactions
▷ What deals are required or preferable?
Exercises:
▶ Greeks management for an energy portfolio of an energy
producer.
▶ Power options (estimate the Greeks of the individual
assets as well as the Greeks of the overall position; over
three moments in time: now, a week before expiration, as
well as at expiration).
Session 8:
Managing Greeks in large portfolios
– Part 2
▶ Management of an integrated portfolio of options
▷ Calculate (or estimate) the Greeks
▷ Create a matrix which incorporates both:
▪ Scenario analysis, and
▪ Sensitivity analysis
Exercise:
Analysis of a portfolio of power options
LEADERLEADERLEADERCOURSELEADER
Jerry de Leeuw founded
Mercurious in 2004, when
many gas & electricity
markets in Europe were
liberalized. After completing
his study in Economics in
1995 he became a Market
Maker on the trading-
floor of the European
Option Exchange (EOE) in
Amsterdam.
He was employed by Curvalue on EOE, Amsterdam
Exchanges (AEX) and Euronext. In 1999 he
established his own Market Maker company, which
was licensed under the supervisory body AFM.
This firm became a Member of Euronext Liffe, and
had clearing-contracts with Fortis, KBC bank and
Goldman Sachs. Over the years, Jerry has traded
by open out-cry on the floors of various exchanges
and has a great deal of experience in screen-based
trading. He has extensive experience in a variety of
products, (amongst others) ranging from stocks, FX
and commodities to futures, options and structured
products. He is also author of the books ‘Milkshakes
& Butterflies’, ‘Hit & Lift’ and ‘Energy problems &
future perspective’
JERRY DE LEEUW
Managing Director Mercurious
Jerry de Leeuw founded
Mercurious in 2004, when
many gas & electricity
markets in Europe were
liberalized. After completing
his study in Economics in
1995 he became a Market
Maker on the trading-
floor of the European
Option Exchange (EOE) in
Amsterdam.
Reviews from the last
Real Options course:
“I have now a better understanding of Risk Management
activities”
Edison Trading
“I am now able to hedge the portfolio better”
Edison Trading
“Very good electronic exercises”
Dong Energy
LANGUAGE
The workshop will be delivered in English.
DATE
28-29 October, 2013, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
SCHEDULE
Each day starts at 09.00 and finishes at 17.00hrs.
REGISTRATION
http://www.energy-expert-network.com/courses
E-mail: Johanna.oberg@energy-expert-network.com
Phone:+46 (0) 85 333 2599
FEES
Early Bird 2061€ (register before 18 september)
+ Dutch VAT
Standard price 2490€ + Dutch VAT
MULTIPLE REGISTRATION DISCOUNT
Register two or more people from the same company
and get a 10% discount per person.
FOOD AND BEVERAGE
Food and beverages will be provided to the
participants during the day. Specific wishes can be
submitted to the organization.
DOCUMENTATION
Participants receive documentation, calculations and
exercises in a manual.
ABOUT THE ORGANIZERS
ENERGY EXPERT NETWORK
The Energy Expert Network is a network of experts
and hands-on energy market participants that provides
companies with tailored courses.
The Energy Expert Network consists of the ‘best of the
best’ industry experts, well known for their knowledge and
experience in teaching energy industry professionals. Energy
Expert Network also provide open courses on fixed dates in
co-operation with external experts.

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Real Options

  • 1. 28-29 October, 2013, Amsterdam RealOptions Jerry de Leeuw Course Leader
  • 2. This is a practical, hands-on course in Real Options, which we’ve constructed to be within the grasp of non-mathematical experts. Introduction We designed this two day course specifically to instruct participants in the areas of outright, embedded and real options, physical assets, hedging future cash flows of assets, optimization of allocation of assets, flexibility, pricing of options, valuation of real options and Greek variables as indicators for sensitivities. The course is about real options and while statistics are important in this area of expertise and there is a bit of mathematics in the course material, in this course things are explained so that everybody will be able to understand, regardless of their mathematical abilities.This does not affect the level of the course in any negative way, but allows us to explain all subjects in an even more in-depth manner than you can imagine. Learning objectives Acquiring insight and knowledge of: ▶ Option and options theory ▶ Options valuation and valuation of physical assets ▶ Scenario analysis ▶ Sensitivity analysis of cash flows ▶ Greeks variables OURSOURSOURS Who should attend? This program was specifically developed for Traders, Asset & Portfolio managers, Quants, Risk managers and Analysts, but more it is also suitable to and helpful for: ▶ Front, Mid and Back office staff ▶ Originators ▶ ICT experts and Project managers ▶ Legal staff and Compliance officers ▶ Staff of the Finance department ▶ Controllers and Accountants Training The training is based on a strong interactive approach in which the contribution of participants is of utmost importance.Theory and practice are explained and expounded using official definitions, scientific theories, practical exercises, cases and simulations. Documentation Participants will be provided with a syllabus with study material for this specific program.The syllabus contains all relevant documents including power point slides, fact sheets, cases and exercises. RealOptions
  • 3. AGENDAAGENDAAGENDA Program DAY 1 Session 1: Options ▶ Call & put options ▷ Premium ▷ Strike price ▷ Options style ▪ American, European & Asian Style, and more ▪ Plain vanilla versus Exotic options ▶ Options ▶ Outright options ▶ Embedded options ▶ Real options ▶ Flexibility as option ▷ 1-sided right vs. 2-sided obligation ▷ The real options approach Session 2: Option valuation ▶ Valuation models ▷ Black & Scholes ▷ Binomial models ▪ Trees ▶ Disadvantages of models ▷ Assumptions do not represent real life ▶ Skew ▷ Skewness of normal distributed curve ▷ Tail risk ▷ Volatility smile ▷ Positive skew ▷ Negative skew ▶ Kurtosis ▷ Lepto-kurtosis ▷ Height of the mean ▶ Impact on options premiums ▷ Volatility curve ▷ Volatility smile Exercises ▶ Calculation of option value via binomial tree ▶ Calculation of option value with normal distribution ▶ Calculation of option value with log-normal distribution ▶ Calculation of option value with skew Session 3: Power plants as real options ▶ Power plants as sequence of call options on the spark/ dark spread ▶ Asset-backed trading ▷ Spark spread optimization ▷ Delta hedging ▷ Strategy to lock in ▷ Dynamic hedging ▷ Objective approach ▷ Subjective approach ▪ Under/over-hedging ▷ Value of real option ▪ Time value ▪ Intrinsic value ▪ Volatility of the spark spread Exercise: Power plants as real options Session 4: Gas storages ▶ Gas storage ▷ Sequence of time-spread options ▶ Locking in the value of the gas asset ▷ Hedging process ▪ Setting up hedge - Choose amount/significance ▪ Unwinding hedge - Choose significance ▪ Repeat sequence ▪ Timing as critical element ▪ View on the market Exercise: Gas storage valuation Simulation: Trading simulation to lock in and optimize asset value Excel: Option with 2 legs, 2 prices & 2 volatilities
  • 4. LOURSOURSOURSProgram DAY 2 Session 5: Transport capacity as real options ▶ Gas transport capacity ▷ String of location-spread options ▶ Power transport capacity ▷ Series of location-spread options ▶ Basis trading ▷ Trading the basis Session 6: Greek variables ▶ Sensitivity analysis ▷ Delta; What is it? What is its interpretation? How to apply to assets? ▷ Gamma; What is it? What is its interpretation? How to apply? ▷ Vega; the impact of volatility ▷ Theta; premium decay over time ▷ Rho; interest rate sensitivity ▶ Scenario analysis versus sensitivity analysis ▶ Combined reporting ▶ Matrix Simulation: Trading options & managing flexibility in energy portfolios Session 7: Managing Greeks in large portfolios – Part 1 ▶ Creating an overview of all Greeks ▶ Combining this overview with scenario analysis ▶ Steering exposures by doing transactions ▷ What deals are required or preferable? Exercises: ▶ Greeks management for an energy portfolio of an energy producer. ▶ Power options (estimate the Greeks of the individual assets as well as the Greeks of the overall position; over three moments in time: now, a week before expiration, as well as at expiration). Session 8: Managing Greeks in large portfolios – Part 2 ▶ Management of an integrated portfolio of options ▷ Calculate (or estimate) the Greeks ▷ Create a matrix which incorporates both: ▪ Scenario analysis, and ▪ Sensitivity analysis Exercise: Analysis of a portfolio of power options
  • 5. LEADERLEADERLEADERCOURSELEADER Jerry de Leeuw founded Mercurious in 2004, when many gas & electricity markets in Europe were liberalized. After completing his study in Economics in 1995 he became a Market Maker on the trading- floor of the European Option Exchange (EOE) in Amsterdam. He was employed by Curvalue on EOE, Amsterdam Exchanges (AEX) and Euronext. In 1999 he established his own Market Maker company, which was licensed under the supervisory body AFM. This firm became a Member of Euronext Liffe, and had clearing-contracts with Fortis, KBC bank and Goldman Sachs. Over the years, Jerry has traded by open out-cry on the floors of various exchanges and has a great deal of experience in screen-based trading. He has extensive experience in a variety of products, (amongst others) ranging from stocks, FX and commodities to futures, options and structured products. He is also author of the books ‘Milkshakes & Butterflies’, ‘Hit & Lift’ and ‘Energy problems & future perspective’ JERRY DE LEEUW Managing Director Mercurious Jerry de Leeuw founded Mercurious in 2004, when many gas & electricity markets in Europe were liberalized. After completing his study in Economics in 1995 he became a Market Maker on the trading- floor of the European Option Exchange (EOE) in Amsterdam. Reviews from the last Real Options course: “I have now a better understanding of Risk Management activities” Edison Trading “I am now able to hedge the portfolio better” Edison Trading “Very good electronic exercises” Dong Energy
  • 6. LANGUAGE The workshop will be delivered in English. DATE 28-29 October, 2013, Amsterdam, The Netherlands SCHEDULE Each day starts at 09.00 and finishes at 17.00hrs. REGISTRATION http://www.energy-expert-network.com/courses E-mail: Johanna.oberg@energy-expert-network.com Phone:+46 (0) 85 333 2599 FEES Early Bird 2061€ (register before 18 september) + Dutch VAT Standard price 2490€ + Dutch VAT MULTIPLE REGISTRATION DISCOUNT Register two or more people from the same company and get a 10% discount per person. FOOD AND BEVERAGE Food and beverages will be provided to the participants during the day. Specific wishes can be submitted to the organization. DOCUMENTATION Participants receive documentation, calculations and exercises in a manual. ABOUT THE ORGANIZERS ENERGY EXPERT NETWORK The Energy Expert Network is a network of experts and hands-on energy market participants that provides companies with tailored courses. The Energy Expert Network consists of the ‘best of the best’ industry experts, well known for their knowledge and experience in teaching energy industry professionals. Energy Expert Network also provide open courses on fixed dates in co-operation with external experts.