SicuroIMS's Threat Assessment report for Yemen from 21 May to 15 June, reviewing clashes with Houthis in the Amran area, counterterrorism operations in the Shabwa area and a detailed review of the status of the political transition process in the country.

1. YEMEN
T H R E A T A S S E S S M E N T May 21 – June 15, 2014
Protesters in Sana’a demonstrate against the on-going power cuts to the capital while calling for
President Hadi and his government to step down. Many protesters carried pictures of former
President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

2. SECURITY SITUATION
OVERVIEW
Security Threat Assessment
Following the military campaign against AQAP in the southern governorates, the Yemen army and security forces continued to track down suspected militants throughout Sana’a, Shabwa,
Lahj and Abyan during the reporting period. Despite the supposed progress made against the terrorist group, AQAP was able to launch several reprisal attacks against government troops
and facilities throughout the country demonstrating their resolve. Power cuts in Marib led to power being shut off in Sana’ for close to four days, which caused protests dominated by GPC
supporters in the capital city. As a result of the protests, the government clamped down against supporters of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh by shutting down the Yemen Today
television station and surrounding the Saleh Mosque in downtown making much of 70 metre road impassable. Concern is growing in the capital that further conflicts between President
Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi and former President Saleh might expand the protests into violent clashes between security forces and demonstrators.
This report assesses issues that have arisen from May 21 to June 15, 2014. Please note that the heat map’s concentrations are higher than usual in key areas of the country. The red areas
are larger and centred on areas of Yemen where significant activity have occurred throughout the last two and a half weeks. For a detailed record of security incidents occurring in Yemen,
subscribers should refer to SicuroIMS Incident Mapping Platform.
Military Police raided a
hotel in Seiyun on June 1
arresting four mid-level
AQAP commanders
YEMEN
A large AQAP force
conducted a raid on Seiyun
early on May 24 that killed
at least 30.
A suspected AQAP
commander was arrested
in Lahj on May 21 as he
fled from the Abyan .
AQAP militants opened fire
on a bus in Aden killing 9
and wounded a reported
10 on June 15.
Clashes on May 29
between Houthis and
tribesmen in Amran led to
at least 12 deaths.
Warplanes bombed Houthi
locations in Sulatah and
Sahab, Amran on June 2
killing a senior leader.
Protests in Sana’a on June
10-12 challenged Hadi’s
government to step down
Protests erupted in Aden
on May 21 to demonstrate
against Unity Day and call
for secession.

3. SECURITY SITUATION
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
YEMEN
SABA REGION Trend:
• Many of the problems in Sana’a this period stem from power line
cuts in Marib, which occur when tribesmen attack the main power
grid for the region. These areas are not well-protected and
disruptions can often last for several days. Former President Saleh
has strong connections with these tribes.
• A international was kidnapped traveling in Marib to Sana’a, thus
becoming the sixth kidnapped person since January.
AZAL REGION Trend:
• Protestors took to the streets on June 10 to demonstrate against President
Hadi’s inability to provide basis services to the capital. Only numbering a
few hundred, they did call for his downfall and appeared to be comprised
mainly of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s supporters.
• President Hadi announced the first significant cabinet reshuffle in his
tenure as president. Although announced during the protests, the move
has been rumoured for several months, but it was not a sweeping as had
been expected.
ADEN REGION Trend:
• Discontent in Aden with the trajectory of the Yemen government
and lack of a cohesive Southern solution to the political transition
were on display with the May 21 protests in Aden. Secessionists in
Dhalae continue their tit-for-tat fighting with the military’s 33rd
Brigade
• AQAP is responsible for a number of attacks in the Abyan, Lahj and
Aden governorates.
HADRAMOUT REGION Trend:
• Reeling from the government offensive in April-May, AQAP
demonstrated their continued capacity to launch attacks on
military targets throughout Shabwa and Seiyun.
• Assassination attempts against security officials continued
throughout the Hadramout region as a sign of the political unrest
that exists in the area. These assassinations can be attributed to
both AQAP and the former regime.
TEHAMA REGION Trend:
• Saudi border guards arrested one and shot four Yemenis near the shared border with Hajja on
June 2. The refugees from the Haradh camp were trying to re-enter Saudi Arabia illegally. This
area received an influx in refugees late last year when the Saudi government expelled hundreds of
thousands of Yemeni migrant workers in the Kingdom. Increased criminality in the region should
be expected during Ramadan.
JANAD REGION Trend:
• Police arrested a 27-year-old AQAP recruiter in Taiz on charges of attempting to recruit members
to his cause. AQAP has often had recruiters/cells operating in Taiz; however rarely do the attacks
occur in this region.
• As the Houthi conflict heated up in Amran, the Houthi presence in Ibb became becomes of greater
concern to authorities. While they remained relatively peaceful in Ibb this time, it is an area to
watch.

4. SECURITY SITUATION
Cabinet Reshuffle
YEMEN
Cabinet Reshuffle
• Ahmed Obaid Ben Daghr, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Telecommunications and
Information
• Abdullah Mohsen Al-Akwa, Deputy Prime Minister, Ministry of Electricity
• Nasr Taha, Minister of Information
• Ahmed Abdulqader Shayeh, Misister of Oil and Minerals
• Mohammed Mansour Zemam, Minister of Finance
• Ahmed Awadh Bin Mubarak, Executive Director of the President’s Office (former secretary-general
of NDC and CDC)
• Mansour Ali Al-Butani, Secretary General of the Presidency
• Sakhr Al-Wajeeh, Governor of Hodaidah
• Dr. Abu Bakr Al-Qirbi, Member of the Shura Council
• Ahmed Obaid Al-Fadhli, Member of the Shura Council
• Hussam Al-Sharjabi, Vice Minister of Finance
• Fuad Al-Hemyari, Vice Minister of Information
• Jamal al-Sallah, Minister of Foreign Affairs (former Yemen envoy to the UN)
The announcement made by President Hadi on June 11 marks the first majorcabinet reshuffle since he
took office in February 2012. While a couple ministers were replaced earlier this year, a major shakeup
has been expected for months. It remains to be seen what the mandate of this new cabinet is;
however, expectations are low as a power-sharing arrangement of the cabinet and sub-cabinet
positions between the GPC and Islah still dominates the remaining portfolio positions. Further, Islah
effectively dominates the civil service positions and is unlikely to allow significant reforms to be
undertaken.

5. SECURITY SITUATION
JANAD REGION (TAIZ AND IBB)
YEMEN
Gunmen stormed the Yemeni
Women’s Development Office in Ibb
on May 27 in an attempt to remove
the director, Bushra al-Sana’ani from
her position.
More than 60 migrants died on
approximately May 30-31 as their
boat sank off the coast of the Bab El
Mandeb coastline. Mostly Somali
and Ethiopian migrants died. This is
the largest single incident of
migrants dying this year; however,
the incident is not uncommon. The
death toll this year is at least 121.
Many from the Horn of Africa come
to Yemen for job opportunities or as
a gateway to the richer Gulf
countries.
TEHAMA REGION (HAJJA, MAHWET, HODEIDA AND RAYMA)
Residents in the Al-Ragam district in
Mahwet clashed on May 29 over an
on-going property dispute.
Residents of the Gabal Anham and
Mazoaq villages clashed over a area
where both claimed ownership.
Property disputes are common in
Yemen. Two died in the fighting and
four were injured. Police arrested
two more.
Police arrested a 27-
year-old AQAP
recruiter in Taiz on
charges of attempting
to recruit members to
his cause.
Three gunmen broke into a shop in
the Gibla area of Ibb on Friday and
killed the owner. The owner died
when he chased the robbers and
tried to kill them with his own
weapon.
Saudi border guards arrested one
and shot four Yemenis near the
shared border with Hajja on June 2.
The refugees from the Haradh camp
were trying to re-enter Saudi Arabia
illegally.

6. SECURITY SITUATION
AZAL REGION (SAADA, AMRAN, SANA’A AND DHAMAR)
YEMEN
Protests erupted in Sana’a on June 10 as
demonstrators called for the downfall of President
Hadi’s government. Reports of tyres being burned
and troops loyal to the president locking down the
central area around the presidential palace were
commonplace. Protestors could be seen holding
pictures of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
Fierce clashes erupted between Houthis and the Yemeni
military in Al-Jamima and Beit al-Rabuo’ee on the northern
outskirts of Amran on May 23. This follows reports of Houthi
forces moving to the governorate last week from Sa’ada.
Warplanes bombed Houthi locations in Sulatah and
Sahab, Amran on June 2 killing a senior leader.
These were in response to an attack on a military
checkpoint earlier in the day.
Houthis clashed with military forces following the failure of
tribal mediation efforts on May 21. At least four soldiers and
four tribesmen died in the clashes. Clashes resumed earlier
in the week after a ceasefire expired.
Guardsmen loyal to President Hadi raided the
television studios of Yemen Today, long-viewed as a
mouthpiece of the GPC and former President Saleh,
who had used the channel during the recent
protests to call people to the street. Hadi said the
station was leading to “incitements of disturbances).
Anti-terrorism units arrested twelve AQAP suspects in a raid
of the Ahrab district of Sana’a on May 25. Three militants
were killed. Of those arrested, eight are Saudi nationals. In
retaliation for the raid, a senior intelligence officer was
assassinated in the area. Although not confirmed to be part
of this raid, the government announced they had killed Abu
Yasir, a top AQAP commander on May 26.
On May 21, Rajinder Singh Verdi, a British national, was
arrested and deported in Sana’a after trying to leave the
airport with 16 Yemeni artefacts dating to the Stone Age. He
works for an oil company in Yemen.
Gunmen shot at Prime Minister Mohammed Salim
Basindawa’s house on June 2 after UN Envoy Jamal
Benomar left his house.
Counter terrorism united raided two suspected terrorist
hideouts in Sana’a on May 27 killing one of the movement’s
leaders near Tunisia Street in downtown. Forces also raided
the Beit Al-Adhari neighbourhood in the Arhab district again.
Clashes between Houthis and tribesmen erupted on
May 29 killing at least 12 in Amran. The tribesmen,
affiliated with Islah, were manning a checkpoint
near the city.

7. SECURITY SITUATION
ADEN REGION (LAHJ, DHALAE, ADEN AND ABYAN)
YEMEN
Armoured vehicles in the Snah area of Dhalae were hit by an IED on May 27,
killing a member of the Southern Movement (Hirak Al-Janoubi) and a grocer. One
soldiers was wounded.
The commander of the 33rd Brigade in Dhalae survived an assassination attempt
on June 2 when visiting a base in the area.
A suspected AQAP commander was arrested in Lahj on May 21 as he fled from the
Abyan province. Identified as Mu’az Majid al-Hamid Al-Asiri, a Saudi national, the
military considers his arrest as part of the self-labeled “sweep up” operations
resulting from their proclaimed successful military offensive in Abyan/Shabwa
against AQAP.
Gunmen attacked a army post in Mahfad, Abyan on June 14
with VBIED. The reported attack is being attributed to AQAP.
Gunmen shot and killed a security officer near the Ashreen Camp in Aden on May
28. This is located in the Crater area of Aden.
Hameed Al-Tawil, a intelligence colonel, died in a drive-by shooting in Lahj on May
31. Gunmen shot the colonel several times in the head before fleeing.
Protestors blocked the roads in Mansoura, Khormaksar and
Sira in Aden on June 11 following a twelve hour cut in
electricity to the governorate. Led by the Southern
Movement, the protests were similar to those in Sana’a as
tyres were burned and police intervened.
A military vehicle was attacked in Dhalea by an IED on June 8. No injuries were
reported.
Military forces clashed with gunmen on June 8 in Lahj. The fighting came when
the gunmen reportedly demanded the release of detainees held by authorities.
Suspected AQAP militants attacked a police checkpoint in Lahj on June 10 with
RGPS on the main road to the Anad military base.

8. SECURITY SITUATION
SHEBA REGION (JAWF, MAREB AND BAIYDA)
YEMEN
A suicide bomber exploded at a Houthi checkpoint in Jawf on May 23 causing an
uncertain number of casualties.
Tribesmen sabotaged the main power line in Marib on June 10, which caused a
complete shutdown of the power grid in the capital. This led to a shutdown of
power for at least four days continuously in Sana’a, sparking protests in the capital
led by GPC allies.
Fibre optic cables that provide internet and telephone service to the capital were
cut in late May/early June, which caused service disruption throughout the region.
This is a common occurrence.
An expat employee of a US oil company was kidnapped by armed tribesmen while
driving to Sana’a from Maribe on June 8. Security forces cordoned off the highway.
This makes the sixth foreigner kidnapped in three months.
Masked gunmen on a motorcycle shot and killed the secretary-general of the
Baiyda local council on May 21. Abdullah Abu Talib was driving near the public
library in Rada’a when militants opened fire on his car.
A suspected US drone strike hit an AQAP vehicle traveling from central Marib on
June 4 near to Moghafar, just east of Wadi Obaida. Early reports suggest that four
died in the strike, including a commander named Jafar al-Shabwani.

9. SECURITY SITUATION
HADRAMOUT REGION (SHABWA)
YEMEN
The Army shelled AQAP positions near al-Saeed in Shabwa on May 22 leading to the death
of six civilians. The innocent tribesmen died when a shell hit a pick-up truck on accident.
A roadside bomb hit a military patrol vehicle and nearby civilian car on May 23 on the
main road between Ataq and Naqbah on Friday, Four civilians and three others were
injured.
A large AQAP force conducted a raid on Seiyun early on May 24 that killed at least 30.
While the government has regained control of the city, the militants attacked at least
seven major installations, including the military headquarters, police station, airport and
main banks. Some reports suggest that the militants were wearing Yemeni Army
uniforms, a common tactic of AQAP militants. Fighting occurred throughout the early
morning until repelled by the military, which deployed fighter jets to follow the retreating
AQAP militants.
Suspected AQAP militants attacked a checkpoint in Bayhan on June 5. The early morning
attack killed 17 police and wounded several others. The militants attacked in two pickup
trucks firing RPGS and other explosives. Several armoured cars were torched in the
attack.
The military deployed units to the Jabal Ridah, Hura and Maifa areas in Shabwa on June 5
following increasing instances of instability. The units are meant to restore stability to the
areas.
Two suicide attacks were stopped near the Banafea Hospital in Ataq on June 11by security
forces.
Yemeni forces directed a targeted strike on suspected terrorists in Ataq on June 13 killing
four suspects and destroying a weapons depot.
On late June 14, three suspected AQAP militants died in an apparent drone strike in the
Mafraq al-Saeed area of Shabwa while they were traveling in a vehicle.

10. SECURITY SITUATION
HADRAMOUT REGION (HADRAMOUT AND MAHRA)
YEMEN
Two gunmen shot and killed Colonel Salmin al-Obatani and his son on May 29
as they travelled back to their home in Mukallah, Hadramout. The gunmen
attacked from a motorcycle and killed the intelligence officer with automatic
weapons
Military Police raided a hotel in Seiyun on June 1 arresting four mid-level AQAP
commanders reportedly involved in recent assassination campaigns in the area.
A high-ranking security officer survived an assassination attempt in Seiyun on
June 1 afternoon after gunmen opened fire on his military car.
In Wadi Hadramout, police clashed with AQAP militants on June 4 at a
checkpoint. The clashes broke out when a vehicle with explosives and weapons
was stopped by police at the checkpoint.
A bomb disposal unit in Seiyun removed a explosive devise near a police camp
in the city on June 6.
Gunmen shot and killed a CID officer in Ghayl Ba Wazir on June 11 in the
Hadramout governorate, reportedly near the Bawazer Mosque.

11. CONCLUSION
ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS
YEMEN
Despite the on-going campaign in the South against AQAP, Unity Day proceeded with less violence than expected. The government anticipated the May 22nd Holiday
as a display of unity against AQAP following a harsh campaign against the militant group in the previous five weeks. The rather quiet celebration was not echoed in
the South where several thousand took to the streets in Aden to protest against the government and for Southern independence. While fighting slowed down during
the report period in the South between the government and AQAP, it remains unclear what impact the campaign had on AQAP’s presence in the country. Military
officials reported that several hundred AQAP militants died in addition to dozens of Yemeni soldiers; however, little independent reporting exists and many believe the
government’s casualties are extremely underestimated while the death toll for AQAP is exaggerated. Regardless, attacks over the past two weeks indicate that AQAP
still maintains a significant presence throughout Abyan, Shabwa, Lahj and several other governorates and is able to launch attacks. The government shifted focus away
from the South this last week and focused instead on the Arhab district in Sana’a where several raids led to the death of numerous AQAP suspects including Abu Yasser
(Saleh Hadi Tays). Meanwhile, service delivery in the capital of Sana’a continued to decline and further impact the public’s perception of a government unable to meet
the needs of its people.
Protests erupted in Sana’a on June 10 after the capital entered its second day without electricity. In the main areas of Sana’a (near the Hadda Post Office) and near
the presidential palace, protesters took to the street with messages calling for the downfall of the current government led by President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi.
Protesters burned tires and held pictures of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh who stepped down from the country’s top post after the signing of the Gulf
Cooperation Council Agreement in November 2011. While removed from power, Saleh remains in Yemen, exercises considerable power as he heads the General
People’s Congress (GPC), the country’s largest political party, and maintains considerable personal wealth as a result of his large real estate holdings and business
connections. Saleh has long-been believed to be behind some of the armed tribal attacks against the power infrastructure in Marib and the on-going assassination
campaigns of military/security officials throughout the South. Without question the protesters are linked to the GPC and and reliable sources on the ground suggest
many of Saleh’s thugs have been stirring up trouble between the protesters and soldiers deployed to contain the demonstrations. The protests are a direct challenge
by Saleh against Hadi’s government. In response, Hadi ordered the military to shutdown the pro-GPC Yemen Today and confiscate the equipment. His cabinet
reshuffle on Wednesday has been in the making for several months, but its announcement on June 11 was meant as a signal to the people of Yemen who were not
protesting that changes will be coming. However, the power sharing arrangement reached between Islah and the GPC to form the original cabinet appears to remain
largely unchanged with the recent shake-up. Noticeably absent from the list in the cabinet reshuffle is Prime Minister Mohammed Basindawa, who retains his post.
His departure has been speculated for months and might signal that more reshuffling will occur in the near future. Some rumours are circulating that former Prime
Minster Haider al-Attas, a prominent Southerner and leader in the Hirak Movement, might replace him.
Fighting between the Houthis and the government resumed in Amran and surrounding governorates during the reporting period as a ceasefire reached earlier in the
year elapsed. Since last October, the Houthis have taken advantaged of a deteriorating security situation throughout the country and the government’s pre-
occupation with AQAP in the South to expand its area of influence from the northern Sa’ada governorate. Clashes on May 20 between Houthis and Islah-backed
tribesmen in Amran led to the deaths of at least 25. The fighting continued for a week in Amran before the government reached a ceasefire agreement with the
Houthis on June 4. In the three days before the agreement was reached, an estimated 140 people died. As part of the ceasefire agreement, the Houthis released 100
soldiers held prisoner while the government guaranteed the safe return of those who had fled Amran during the fighting. Also, the government agreed to replace
Amran’s governor. In the past year, the Houthis have made incredible gains in the north as they have expanded their influence from Sa’ada following the October
clashes in Dammaj. The government has largely been unable to intervene due to pressures from AQAP in the South, thus leaving fighting between the Houthis and
tribesmen affiliated with the Isalh Party. The short-term ceasefire allows the Houthis to re-arm and prepare for renewed conflict. Of great concern in renewed fighting
would be the Houthis ability to control the Amran-Sana’a highway.

12. YEMEN
May 21 – June 15, 2014
With the appointment of Ahmed Awadh Bin Mubarak to the President’s Office staff, it remains unclear who will replace him at the helm of the technical
secretariat responsible for managing the Constitutional Drafting Committee (CDC). Previously, he guided the National Dialogue Conference (NDC), but was
criticized for receiving an out-sized salary of $240,000 per year to lead that process. Little news is emerging from the CDC; however, it appears they remain on-
track to publish the first draft of the constitution following the end of Ramadan. Some reports suggest that President Hadi’s fascination with the German federal
model might be shaping the committee’s approach to developing a federal structure for Yemen; however, it is unlikely the first draft will present a fully
developed concept to be debated and discussed. In conversations with international experts, the CDC (which visited German) is acting independent of
international experts and only seeking clarification and guidance when particular issues arise.
Also on the political front, the French Embassy reopened on May 27 after several weeks of closure due to security threats. Similarly, the US Embassy “re-
opened” with the arrival of the new Ambassador Matthew H. Tueller, a member of the senior foreign service. A graduate of Brigham Young University and the
Harvard Kennedy School of Government, Ambassador Tueller has held postings in many Arab countries, including the old consulate in Aden. Fluent in Arabic, Mr.
Tueller comes well-versed in politics, but not counter-terrorism which might signal the US’s interest in shaping the remaining phases of the transition process
while leaving the counter-terrorism relationships to the military an intelligence community. Known as a good listener, Ambassador Tueller presented his
credentials to President Hadi on June 10. Increasingly, the US Embassy staff limited in movement and few get outside the Sheraton compound or Embassy
grounds, thus limiting the visibility—for security reasons—of Embassy staff. As the US and French announced their reopening, the EU mission apparently quietly
informed the President’s Office of its indefinite departure from the country. While not confirmed, a June 9 meeting between the President and head of the EU
mission did occur where notice was given. This fits with other international organizations and missions who are preparing to drawdown staff toward the end of
June as Ramadan begins.
The first pilot phase of the biometric voter registration period in Constituency 10 of Sana’a is concluding this month after approximately 5 weeks of testing.
Despite expectations that the process would be marred by technical flaws, limited electricity, lack of procedural understanding and, possibly, security concerns,
period exceeded expectations. An estimated 23,000 were able to register to vote and the Supreme Committee for Elections and Referendum (SCER)
demonstrated an ability to adapt the process in order to speed up registration time. While this is an extremely small pilot in a relatively well-developed part of
Sana’a, it does provide some optimism that the pilot process can be expanded to Aden after Ramadan with a nation-wide launch in September. However, the
SCER faces significant obstacles recruiting enough workers to staff voter registration centres and it is still unclear whether or not Southerners will turn out to
register. It is likely this will be the only registration period until the constitutional referendum.
ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS

13. YEMEN
May 21 – June 15, 2014
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THREAT ASSESSMENT
Last year, Ramadan proved to be a dangerous time in Sana’a for internationals and most left toward the end of the holiday with the US and foreign governments
issuing a forced evacuation notice due to terrorist threats. It is highly recommended all internationals in Yemen depart for the entirety of the Ramadan holiday.
Fuel shortages continue, thus growing concern exists that supplies will continue to shrink as the holiday season approaches. Prices are doubling to
approximately 450 Yemeni Riyal per litre from earlier this year for petrol. Coupled with limited fuel supplies, the cost of remaining in country from a physical
security perspective outweigh the reasons to be in-country as the end of the month approaches.
Due to the government’s campaign against AQAP and continued police action against hideouts in Sana’a, it should be expected that future attacks are probably,
if not likely, in retribution. In the past, AQAP has demonstrated its sophistication in launch multi-front attacks against military bases and hospitals throughout
Sana’a and the South, which were high-profile. Installations prime for targeting would be oil facilities, government military bases, ministries, prisons and other
areas where government presence is high. While intentional targeting of non-Yemenis is not yet a typical behaviour of the terrorist group, there is popular
sentiment throughout the country against drone strikes by Americans, which indicates that it is not out of the realm of possibility that future attacks might occur
against Western targets, such as embassies and/or hotels. Internationals are encouraged to avoid these facilities unless absolutely necessary.
Kidnapping remains the main threat against international targets. These attempts typically occur when movements are taking place between two locations.
Drivers should avoid evening movements and vary daily routines to avoid surveillance. As indicated previously in these reports, grocery stores and popular
restaurants are prime scouting locations for would-be kidnappers, thus it is strongly recommended that internationals avoid these locations and find alternative
means to procure goods and services. Public transportation/taxis should not be used. Recent reports that both Sana’a and Aden’s airport had been subject to
terrorist plots is of concern as it is the only two ways in and out of the country (note – there are limited international flights from Hodeidah). It is advisable to
maintain necessary supplies for a stand-fast situation in case transportation out of the country is not possible for several days.