“RiskWise - An intuitive approach to the Risk Process” kicks off by conducting a brief overview of the state of risk and highlights the underlying forces that have increased the difficulties in managing risk and in making decisions. Our world is changing at a rapid pace and we are often at pains to keep up with developments within our own environment, often at the neglect of other areas. We take a look back in history to the risks that were taken over 45 years ago. We examine the system and processes that were put in place to help manage the risk in the Apollo missions and in particular Apollo 13. How the risk was managed in a time when information was not so readily available and communications was nowhere near the level of sophistication we are exposed to today. We then take a leap forward to the present day and see how we might use this same RiskWise process to manage some of the risks we face today in our personal and business lives. We look at an everyday situation of a potential risk in the financial sector and filter it through the structured and intuitive RiskWise process. RiskWise has been designed to guide us through a systematic and structured thinking process which alerts us to potential problems in critical areas. Each of these potential problems needs to be evaluated in detail and an action plan formulated Areas covered in the session • Understanding and application of an applied Thinking Processes • Learning a systematic and intuitive risk strategy • Apply the RiskWise process in your own job situation • Apply a common terminology for the process

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Think .… Investigate
Resolve
John Hudson
Operations Director
Thinking Dimensions (UK)
Webinar
18 October 2016
An Overview of RiskWise©
Chartered Institute of Bankers
Keith Smith
Principal Consultant
RiskCovered

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Introduction
Why does it make sense to use structured
methods in risk management and decision
making? What has changed?

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The underlying forces

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Complexity
Stacey RD. Strategic management and organisational dynamics: the
challenge of complexity. 3rd ed. Harlow: Prentice Hall, 2002.

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Summary
In a world where we frequently lose certainty and
agreement, structured methods can help us claw
back understanding and clarity

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Overview
KEPNERandFOURIE - RiskWise
1.Brief History and Pedigree
2.The KEPNERandFOURIE Process
3.The Apollo 13 Mission
4.RiskWise Today
5.Q and A Session

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KEPNERandFOURIE
Charles H Kepner and
Mat-Thys Fourie
KEPNERandFOURIE
Continuous Improvement Processes
• PSDM
• itRCA
• Project Rescue
• Self Cyber

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The KEPNERandFOURIE
International Presence
• Baxter International
• Blue Cross Blue Shield
• Barclays IT
• Bosch
• Caltex Oil
• Carraro
• Crown Cork and Seal
• Dometic
• Electrolux
• Federal Judiciary Center
• General Dynamics IT
• Hollister,Inc
• Infineon
• BASF
• Macquarie Bank IT
• BT Financial IT
• Stihl
• Westpac IT
• Maersk
• Norfolk Naval Shipyard
• Selig
• Siemens
• SITA
• SKF
Americas
• Canada
• Chile
• Peru
• USA
EMEA
• Germany
• Italy
• Netherlands
• Poland
• Saudi Arabia
• South Africa
• Spain
• Turkey
• United Kingdom
Asia Pacific
• Australia
• China
• India
• South Korea
• Thailand
• Singapore

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The KEPNERandFOURIE
Processes
NeedtotakeAction
Many
Issues
One
Technical
One
Generic
PriorityWise
CauseWise
ThinkWise
Choose
Alternative
Find Better
Alternative
Have No
Alternative
Protect an
Action Plan
RiskWise
SW
MaxFour
SW
Create
SW
Choice

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RiskWise is
 A highly flexible and practical risk avoidance problem solving
approach.
 A systematic and integrative application of rational, intuitive
and creative risk avoidance strategies.
 Exploits the risk avoidance thinking approach using case
studies and exercises.
 Applies questioning techniques that are essential in affecting
the risk avoidance problem solving dimensions
 Apply the risk avoidance dimension and approach to own job
situations

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RISKWISE
Protective Actions
PAST NOW FUTURE
FINDING
CAUSE
FINDING
SOLUTIONS
FUTURE
RISKWISE
STANDARD
could could
Avoiding and
Contingent Actions

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The RiskWise Process

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The RiskWise Process
and Apollo 13
(11 April 1970)
State the
Situation
Identify
Potential
Problems
Plan
Protection
Develop
an Action
Plan
Check
your
Thinking

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The RiskWise Process
“Houston we have a problem”
Apollo 13
State the Situation: Damage to Oxygen and Hydrogen tanks critically
affects life support and electrical systems

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RiskWise
Critical Risk Areas
Critical Risk Areas (15)
• Select the most urgent
• Highest Impact events
• Stakeholders Perspective

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RiskWise
Identify Potential Problems
Potential Problems
• Non- return of Apollo 13
• Exhaust Oxygen Supplies
• Failure of Electrical systems
• Inability to steer spacecraft
• Recycle the CO²
“Failure is not an Option”

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Plan Protection
Avoiding Actions
Exit Command Module (CM)
Shut Down CM Systems
Relocate to Lunar Module
Reassess situation
Contingent Actions
Mission control to Reassess
Simulators in Houston and Kennedy
Minimise consumption of Oxygen, Water Electricity
CO² Control

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Develop an Action Plan
Action Steps
Repair Oxygen Link
Evacuate Command Module
Alter Flight Plan
Lunar Module to determine flight-path
Responsibilities
Apollo 13 crew
Apollo 13 Crew
Mission Control
LM Pilot
Action Plan

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Check Your Thinking (CYT)
Check Your Thinking
1. Identify Risk Areas
2. List Risks and Potential Problems
3. Identify Avoiding Actions
4. Identify Opportunity areas
5. List Opportunities
6. Identify Promoting Actions
7. Develop a plan (Include avoiding and promoting actions)

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Root Cause
Investigation into Apollo 13 Failure
Investigation Team Findings
(Human Error and Oversight)
Simulation test of Oxygen Bottles functions
Unable to empty contents of bottle 2
Heater used to burn off remaining contents
(incorrect voltage 65 volts instead of 28
volts)
Higher current welded the switches
together – the heaters operated when they
should not have functioned.
Damage to Teflon insulation on the fan,
when operated in flight this caused an
electrical arc and explosion
Protective Actions

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RiskWise Process
Safeguard against the scanning of Credit Cards by RFID
State the
Situation
Identify
Potential
Problems
Plan
Protection
Develop
an Action
Plan
Check
your
Thinking

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RiskWise
The Situation
Step 1: Situation Step 2: Critical Risk Areas
(15)
Safeguard against the scanning of
Credit Cards by RFID
(Radio Frequency Identification
Device)
1. New and Old Technology
3. Implementation Time

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RiskWise – Critical Risk Areas
Safeguard against the scanning of Credit Cards by RFID

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RiskWise
Intuitive Model
RiskWise - Intuitive Model
1. SITUATION: Safeguard against the scanning of Credit Cards by RFID
2 EVALUATE AREAS OF IMPACT
Risk Benefit
0 to H 0 to H
1 New & Old technology H H
2 Ease of Implementation M H
3 Implementation time H H
4 Research and development M H
5 Suppliers/vendors and customers L H
6 Recoveries L L
7 Target dates and/or deadlines/durations M M
8 Knowledge and skills L H
9 Labour/Resource issues M L
10 Security H H
11 Quality M H
12 Productivity L M
13 Strategic fit L H
14 Policies, procedures & processes L L
15 Environment, health & safety L l

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RiskWise – Potential Problems
2.2 Potential Problems Probability Serious
Intuitive Method
List all the potential problems 0 to H 0 to H
1
New and Old
Technology
1.1. Design and manufacture of device H H
1.2 Method of distribution M M
1.3 Inform customers of the initiative L L
1.4 Measure of effectiveness H M
3
Implementation
Time
3.1 Unable to make festive season deadline H H
3.2 Identify the bank products they are using H L
3.3 Customers don’t use the device L H
1. Situation: Safeguard against the scanning of Credit Cards by RFID

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RiskWise – Likely reasons
and related actions
3.1 Likely Reasons Prob3.2 Avoiding Actions Eff 3.3. Contingent Actions Eff
Identify reasons
(causes) for each
high threat
Identify actions to prevent
each reason.
Identify actions to deal with
each potential problem
2.1.1 New
technology and new
UK Manufacturer
H
2.1.1.1 Search for an
alternative overseas
supplier
H
Cooperate with multinational
partners to use their
suppliers
H
2.1.1.2 Alternative
materials available in Far
East
M
Ensure availability in an
emergency
M
Potential Problem - 2.1. Design and manufacture
of RFID blocking credit card wallet

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RiskWise – Action Plan
4. Action Plan Responsible Deadline
(Actions do not have to be in
sequence)
(Who is most qualified to do
this step?)
(What is a realistic time to
complete?)
2.1.1 (a) Establish if any
local suppliers can
produce the required
spec in the required time
JH to develop a short list
of suppliers
31 October
2.1.1 (b) Negotiate
design and production
with local supplier
KS to complete
procurement details
11 November

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Check Your Thinking
Safeguard against the scanning of Credit Cards by RFID
Check Your Thinking
1. Identify Risk Areas
2. List Risks and Potential
Problems
3. Identify Avoiding Actions
4. Identify Opportunity areas
5. List Opportunities
6. Identify Promoting Actions
7. Develop a plan

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RiskWise – Spreadsheet Layout

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RiskWise – Question Time

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Contact Details
Thinking Dimensions (UK)
KEPNERandFOURIE
John Hudson
Operations Director
Thinking Dimensions (UK)
www.thinkingdimensions.com
john@thinkingdimensions.com
Mobile +44 (0) 7890 518 167