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Genworth MI Canada Q2 2016 Results Highlights 8% EPS Growth
1. 1Genworth MI Canada Inc.Q2 2016 Results
August 3rd, 2016
Second Quarter 2016 Results
2. 2Genworth MI Canada Inc.Q2 2016 Results
Forward-looking and
non-IFRS statements
DRIVING VALUE THROUGH CUSTOMIZED SERVICE EXPERIENCE
Public communications, including oral or written communications such as this document, relating to Genworth MI Canada Inc. (the
“Company”, “Genworth Canada” or “MIC”) often contain certain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements
include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the Company’s future operating and financial results, expectations
regarding premiums written, losses on claims and investment income, the Canadian housing market, and other statements that are
not historical facts. These forward-looking statements may be identified by their use of words such as “may”, “would”, “could”, “will,”
“intend”, “plan”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “seek”, “propose”, “estimate”, “expect”, and similar expressions. These statements are based
on the Company’s current assumptions, including assumptions regarding economic, global, political, business, competitive, market
and regulatory matters. These forward-looking statements are inherently subject to significant risks, uncertainties and changes in
circumstances, many of which are beyond the control of the Company. The Company’s actual results may differ materially from
those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including as a result of changes in the facts underlying the
Company’s assumptions, and the other risks described in the Company’s most recently issued Annual Information Form,
Management’s Discussion and Analysis, its Short Form Base Shelf Prospectus dated June 18, 2014, the Prospectus Supplements
thereto, and all documents incorporated by reference in such documents. Management’s current views regarding the Company’s
financial outlook are stated as of the date hereof and may not be appropriate for other purposes. Other than as required by
applicable laws, the Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a
result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
To supplement its financial statements, the Company uses select non-IFRS financial measures. Non-IFRS financial measures
include net operating income, interest and dividend income (net of investment expenses), operating earnings per common share
(basic), operating earnings per common share (diluted), shareholders’ equity excluding accumulated other comprehensive income
(“AOCI”), operating return on equity and underwriting ratios such as loss ratio, expense ratio, combined ratio, cures and effective tax
rate. The Company believes that these non-IFRS financial measures provide meaningful supplemental information regarding its
performance and may be useful to investors because they allow for greater transparency with respect to key metrics used by
management in its financial and operational decision making. Non-IFRS measures do not have standardized meanings and are
unlikely to be comparable to any similar measures presented by other companies. These measures are defined in the Company’s
glossary, which is posted on the Company’s website at http://investor.genworthmicanada.ca. A reconciliation from non-IFRS
financial measures to the most readily comparable measures calculated in accordance with IFRS, where applicable can be found in
the Company’s most recent management’s discussion and analysis, which is posted on the Company’s website and is also available
at www.sedar.com.
3. 3Genworth MI Canada Inc.Q2 2016 Results
0.99 1.00
1.03
0.99
1.07
Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016
Q2 2016 financial results
$MM except
ROE, EPS &
MCT
Q2
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2015
Q/Q Y / Y
Premiums
written
$249 $117 $205 +113% +21%
Loss ratio 21% 24% 17% -3 pts +4 pts
Net Operating
Income
$99 $91 $92 +8% +8%
Operating ROE 12% 11% 12% +1% Flat
Operating EPS
(dil.)
$1.07 $0.99 $0.99 +8% +9%
MCT1 233% 234% 231% -1 pt +2 pts
Q2 key highlights
• Premiums written increased Q/Q due to portfolio
insurance volumes and seasonality
• Loss ratio of 21%, driven by typical seasonality
and improvements in Quebec
• Operating income up 8% Q/Q, driven by higher
premiums earned and lower losses on claims
• Ongoing capital strength with MCT ratio of
233%1
Operating EPS (diluted) Book Value Per Share (diluted, incl. AOCI)
36.18 36.14 36.82 37.23
38.23
Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016
+6%
YoY
1. Q2 2016 MCT company estimate. MCT denotes ratio for operating insurance company.
2. Company sources.
4. 4Genworth MI Canada Inc.Q2 2016 Results
2016 market drivers
Macroeconomic environment
• Slow growth environment with GDP growth of 1.3% in 2016,
and 2.2% in 20171
• Average oil price expected to remain in the $40 to $50 range
• Home price appreciation continues to benefit from strong
demand outside of oil-producing regions
1. Source: Bank of Canada.
2. Company estimates.
Expectations for full year 20162 Alberta National
Unemployment rate 8% to 8.5% 7.1% to 7.6%
Home price appreciation (depreciation) (5)% to (10)% 2% to 6%
Business trends
• Modest pressure on share due to prudent underwriting
• Portfolio insurance rule changes impacting demand
• New delinquencies, net of cures, decreased Q/Q due to
seasonality
Regulatory environment
• New capital framework expected to be published in September 2016
• More risk sensitive by incorporating credit scores and outstanding insured amounts
• Includes supplementary capital for metropolitan areas where regional house price to income metric threshold exceeds OSFI’s
prescribed threshold… Victoria, GVA, Calgary, Edmonton and GTA exceed proposed thresholds as of Mar. 2016
Key takeaways
• Total premiums written expected to be lower than 2015 as modestly lower transactional insurance premiums
are partly offset by higher portfolio insurance volumes
• Updated estimated range for 2016 loss ratio: 25% to 35%
5. 5Genworth MI Canada Inc.Q2 2016 Results
Top line
$3.9 $3.4
$5.9 $4.5
$6.8 $5.8
$4.1
$25.9
$8.3
$6.1
$6.2 $9.6
2015 YTD Q2'16 2015 YTD Q2'16
New insurance written ($ billions) Net premiums written ($ millions)
Note: Company sources.
$25.2 $25.7
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Highlights
• Lower Y/Y transactional volumes and premiums written, partially offset by a higher average premium rate
• Total premiums written increased, largely due to portfolio insurance
• Portfolio insurance average premium rate primarily reflects low LTVs and high credit quality
Transactional Portfolio
$104 $99
$183 $170
$236
$181
2015 YTD Q2'16
$705 $104
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Transactional Portfolio
$26 $18
$22
$78$24
$32
2015 YTD Q2'16
Average premium rate
2.79% 2.93%
$9.2
$30.4
$270
$96
Average premium rate
0.40% 0.32%
6. 6Genworth MI Canada Inc.Q2 2016 Results
Portfolio quality improving
TRANSACTIONAL PORTFOLIO QUALITY SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED COMPARED TO ‘07/08
Note: Company sources for transactional new insurance written.
Highlights
Steady credit score
improvement year-over-year
Seasonal
decrease due to
regional mix
Stable debt
servicing ratios
Credit score Average gross debt service ratio (%)Median home price (In ‘$000s)
24%
23%
22%
24%
25%
24%
23%
24%
24%
25%
24%
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
$225
$232
$240
$255
$270
$275
$280
$291
$295
$301
$288
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
16%
3%
716
754
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
% Score <660 (R) Avg score (L)
7. 7Genworth MI Canada Inc.Q2 2016 Results
344 365 385 383 349
228 203 181 187 166
227 258 303
424 467
579 578
624
656
578
191 198
204
222
212
97 113
132
162
189
Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16
1,666 1,715
1,829
2,034
1,961
Delinquency trends
Ontario
BC2
Alberta
Quebec
Atlantic
Prairies1
Based on reported outstanding balances
Delinquency Rates3 Q3’15 Q4’15 Q1’16 Q2’164
Transactional 0.29% 0.31% 0.34% n.a.
Portfolio 0.08% 0.08% 0.09% n.a.
Total 0.21% 0.21% 0.23% n.a.
Company sources. 1 Prairies include MB and SK. 2 BC includes the Territories. 3 Delinquency rates are based on outstanding insured mortgage balances as at the end of the
quarter and exclude delinquencies that have been incurred but not reported. 4 Outstanding insured mortgage balances are reported on a one quarter lag.
• Seasonally lower net new
delinquencies
• 2016 revised full year loss ratio
range: 25 – 35%
New delinquencies, net of cures, by region
Ontario
Pacific2
Alberta
Quebec
Atlantic
Prairies1
Total
Outstanding delinquencies
Total
59
105 96 77
36
38
42
31
40
17
43
75 89
183
125
119
116 156
138
63
58
76
82
92
59
2
26
33
38
52
Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16
319
440
487
568
352
Loss ratio 17% 21% 23% 24% 21%
QoQ
∆
-216
+14
-33
-75
-58
-23
-41
8. 8Genworth MI Canada Inc.Q2 2016 Results
Solid financial performance
$MM except EPS & BVPS Q2’16 Q1’16 Q2’15
Transactional premiums written $170 $99 $183
Portfolio premiums written 78 18 22
Total premiums written $249 $117 $205
Premiums earned 158 154 144
Losses on claims (32) (37) (25)
Expenses (30) (28) (29)
Underwriting income $95 $88 $90
Net investment income
(excl. realized gains / losses)
44 41 42
Net operating income $99 $91 $92
Operating EPS
(diluted)
$1.07 $0.99 $0.99
Book value per share
(diluted, incl. AOCI)
$38.23 $37.23 $36.18
Q2 highlights
• Transactional premiums written lower by
7% Y/Y, primarily due to a decline in
volume partially offset by a higher average
premium rate
• Premiums earned increased Y/Y by
$14 million, or 10%, as expected
• Loss ratio of 21%, down 3 pts Q/Q,
primarily due to a seasonal decrease in
new delinquencies, net of cures
• Net investment income up $3 million Q/Q
• Net operating income up $7 million Y/Y or
8% on higher dividend income
• Book value per share up 6% Y/Y
Company sources. Note: Amounts may not total due to rounding.
9. 9Genworth MI Canada Inc.Q2 2016 Results
Solid underwriting profitability
90 89 90 88 95
29 28 27 28
30
25 31 35 37
33
Q2' 15 Q3' 15 Q4' 15 Q1' 16 Q2' 16
Underwriting profitability ($ millions)
Underwriting
profit
Expenses
Losses on claims
Loss ratio 17% 21% 23% 24% 21%
Expense ratio 20% 19% 18% 19% 19%
Combined
ratio
37% 40% 41% 42% 40%
Avg. reserve
per delq. ($000s)
$69.8 $70.4 $71.9 $70.9 $75.4
New delqs.
net of cures
319 440 487 568 352
Premiums earned $154$144 $148 $151 $158
Highlights
• Single up-front premium model provides visibility
into future premiums earned
• Six consecutive quarters of Q/Q increases…
trend should continue into 2017
• Premiums earned in 2H16 should consist of
approximately $295 to $310 million (from
current unearned premiums reserve of $2.1
billion) plus a further amount to be earned
from premiums written in 2H16
• YTD loss ratio at 22%; revised 2016 full year
range to 25% to 35%
• Average reserve per delinquency increased
primarily due to higher Alberta mix
• Potential for increased new delinquencies
and loss ratio in 2H16 from pressure in oil-
producing regions
Company sources.
10. 10Genworth MI Canada Inc.Q2 2016 Results
Federals
Provincials
Preferred shares
Emerging markets debt3
Investment grade
corporates2
Cash4
34%
16%
34%
5%
6%
5%
Investments contribute steady
income
Duration: 3.7 years
Book yield: 3.1%1
Invested assets
(C$ millions, unless noted)
Note: Company sources.
1. Represents market value. Book yield represents pre-tax equivalent book yield after dividend gross-up of portfolio (as at Jun. 30, 2016).
2. Market value, includes CLOs. 3. ~99% Investment grade. 4. Cash includes short-term investments.
Total Invested Assets ($6.1B portfolio1) Net Investment Income ($ millions)
$5,917
$5,867
LOW RATES CONTINUE TO PRESSURE INVESTMENT
YIELD…FOCUS ON OPTIMIZING YIELD WITHIN RISK APPETITE
$209 million of
maturities over
remainder of 2016
5,633 5,798
235
282
Q1 2016 Q2 2016
Book value
Net
unrealized
gain
$5.9B
$6.1B
Investment
yield
3.1% 3.3%
$42 $41
$42 $44
$42
$44
2015 YTD Q2'16
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
$169
$86
11. 11Genworth MI Canada Inc.Q2 2016 Results
2,413 2,486
436 424
570 582
217 206
March 31st, 2016 June 30th, 2016
Capital management
INTEND TO OPERATE IN THE 225-230% MCT RANGE,
PENDING FINALIZATION OF THE CAPITAL FRAMEWORK
Regulatory capital at 220% MCT holding target
(by risk category, $ millions)
Flexibility Efficiency
Strength
Note: Company sources. 1. Market risk includes interest rate, credit, equity risk, and foreign exchange risk.
MCT denotes ratio for operating insurance company. 2Q16 MCT based on company estimates.
2. Represents liquid investments and cash held in addition to capital in operating insurance company.
• New regulatory framework targeted
for Jan. 1, 2017 implementation:
• Base requirement incorporates
credit score, LTV and outstanding
insured amount
• Supplementary capital for
metropolitan areas where home
price to income metric exceeds
OSFI prescribed threshold
(Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton,
Toronto, and Victoria as of March
31, 2016 based on draft advisory)
• Established $100 million line of
credit for capital flexibility
Highlights
3,636 3,698
Insurance Risk
Market Risk1
Operational Risk
Capital in
excess of 220%
MCT 234% 233%
Holdco
cash2
($ millions)
$173 $166
12. 12Genworth MI Canada Inc.Q2 2016 Results
Keen focus on risk management
Proactive loss mitigation
programs
Investing in our customer
experience strategy
Key takeaways
Proven
business model
has positioned
MIC for
future
performance
Balanced approach to writing
new business
13. 13Genworth MI Canada Inc.Q2 2016 Results
investor@genworth.cominvestor.genworthmicanada.ca
Investor Relations
Jonathan A. Pinto, MBA, LL.M
Vice President, Investor Relations
jonathan.pinto@genworth.com905.287.5482