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The Mattereum Big Deck

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This is a 160 page deck outlining the realities of our environmental plight, and analysing how a specific blockchain technology approach could take 5% or 10% off our global environmental footprint while also supporting certain key sustainable development goals.

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The Mattereum Big Deck

  1. 1. We aren’t just here to change the world, we’re here to fix it 1 This is a 160 page deck outlining the realities of our environmental plight, and analysing how a specific blockchain technology approach could take 5% or 10% off our global environmental footprint while also supporting certain key sustainable development goals.
  2. 2. second public release: proof of concept deck should be read full-screen because it relies on slides being built across several pages. very confusing if you try to scroll through it. a few todo pages are in comic sans 2
  3. 3. Part One: Climate Macrostrategy 3
  4. 4. Earth soaks up 16 gigatons of CO2 per year. 16 gigatons divided by 8 billion people is 2 tons. 
 2 tons of CO2 per person per year is safe. Average Americans emit 17 tons of CO2 per year, nearly 8 times the sustainable personal CO2 limit. 4
  5. 5. Poverty & Climate: two issues, or one issue? 5
  6. 6. rural urban 100m rural rich below 2 tons 50 million urban rich below 5 tons 1300 million rural poor close to zero 150 million urban poor below 1 ton Data is hard to find this far back - emissions were negligible rural urban 500 million rural rich around 10 tons 3000 million urban rich around 10 tons 3500 million rural poor below 2 tons 1000 million urban poor below 3 tons CO2 per capita and population numbers both approximate The climate-development disaster Rural poor become urban rich, destroying the world in the process. poorrich poorrich 1900 2020 INCREDIBLY BAD WORLD DESTROYING MACROTREND 6
  7. 7. rural urban 100m rural rich below 2 tons 50 million urban rich below 5 tons 1300 million rural poor close to zero 150 million urban poor below 1 ton Data is hard to find this far back - emissions were negligible rural urban 500 million rural rich around 10 tons 3000 million urban rich around 10 tons 3500 million rural poor below 2 tons 1000 million urban poor below 3 tons CO2 per capita and population numbers both approximate poorrich poorrich 1900 2020 Remember, sustainable means 
 2 tons of CO2 per person per year, or 16 gigatons for the entire planet. 7
  8. 8. rural urban 100m rural rich below 2 tons 50 million urban rich below 5 tons 1300 million rural poor close to zero 150 million urban poor below 1 ton Data is hard to find this far back - emissions were negligible rural urban 500 million rural rich around 10 tons 3000 million urban rich around 10 tons 3500 million rural poor below 2 tons 1000 million urban poor below 3 tons CO2 per capita and population numbers both approximate poorrich poorrich 1900 2020 MASSIVE RURAL POPULATION GROWTH DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER The only “development path” we offer vastly increases CO2, destroying the future. DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER 8
  9. 9. rural urban 500 million rural rich around 10 tons 3000 million urban rich around 10 tons 3500 million rural poor below 2 tons 1000 million urban poor below 3 tons rural urban 100m rural rich below 2 tons 50 million urban rich below 5 tons 1300 million rural poor close to zero 150 million urban poor below 1 ton Data is hard to find this far back - emissions were negligible In 1900 the world output only 3gt of CO2 per year. Now cities alone produce 30gt annually. poorrich poorrich 1900 2020 3gt 30gt MASSIVE RURAL POPULATION GROWTH DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER 9
  10. 10. rural urban 500 million rural rich around 10 tons 3000 million urban rich around 10 tons 3500 million rural poor below 2 tons 1000 million urban poor below 3 tons rural urban 100m rural rich below 2 tons 50 million urban rich below 5 tons 1300 million rural poor close to zero 150 million urban poor below 1 ton Data is hard to find this far back - emissions were negligible In 1900 the world output only 3gt of CO2 per year. Now cities alone produce 30gt annually. poorrich poorrich 1900 2020 3gt 30gt DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER MASSIVE RURAL POPULATION GROWTH Remember, sustainable means 
 2 tons of CO2 per person per year, or 16 gigatons for the entire planet. 10
  11. 11. rural urban 500 million rural rich around 10 tons 3000 million urban rich around 10 tons 3500 million rural poor below 2 tons 1000 million urban poor below 3 tons rural urban 100m rural rich below 2 tons 50 million urban rich below 5 tons 1300 million rural poor close to zero 150 million urban poor below 1 ton Data is hard to find this far back - emissions were negligible People flow from the villages to the cities, from poverty to wealth, but CO2 climbs too. poorrich poorrich 1900 2020 3gt 40gtDEVELOPM ENT DISASTER MASSIVE RURAL POPULATION GROWTH 11
  12. 12. Every path we have out of poverty massively increases people’s resource consumption. Outlying exceptions: Cuba (2.5 tons), Kerala (under 1 ton per capita). 12
  13. 13. More or less the entire human population is trapped in either poverty or climate destruction. poorrich poorrich 1900 2020 DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER MASSIVE RURAL POPULATION GROWTH rural urban rural urban poverty huge CO2 slum development13
  14. 14. One ton of CO2 per human per year adds 
 8 gigatons to our CO2 load. The earth soaks up 16 gigatons per year. Every ton above this trashes the future. 2 tons per year each is safe. Our current emissions are 40 gigatons per year. 
 Roughly 24 gigatons per year over our safe CO2 budget. Once we emit a few hundred excess gigatons of CO2 above our 16gt per year, we break the climate. Less that 10 years at current rates. 14
  15. 15. todo: a proper chart of personal carbon emissions, time, and expected level of climate change. 15
  16. 16. Right now we are betting the future of the planet on an as-yet-unproven Bright Green Urbanism poorrich 2020 DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER rural urban poverty huge CO2 flooded, burning poor cities 2050 rural urban drought and agricultural collapse we are saved only if this exists MAYBE Bright Green Urbanism poorrich 16
  17. 17. does 
 Bright Green Urbanism exist? 17
  18. 18. What does it look like? • Cheap solar energy all year • Probably needs superconductors • Self driving cars as fleet vehicles • Pretty much the whole world lives in green cities • Circular economy • Doughnut economics squares environmental and social footprints Bright Green Urbanism 18
  19. 19. Steering a middle path? • The better your technology is, the more social good you can have while remaining within your ecological ceiling • Geoengineering also increases your ecological ceiling. • It’s not clear how much room there really is for a “regenerative and distributive economy” but Kerala and Cuba show options. Doughnut Economics 19
  20. 20. • Massive movement to the cities The trend lines which fuel Bright Green Urbanism 20
  21. 21. • Massive movement to the cities • Reduced CO2 per dollar of GDP The trend lines which fuel Bright Green Urbanism 21
  22. 22. • Massive movement to the cities • Reduced CO2 per dollar of GDP • Radical improvements in solar The trend lines which fuel Bright Green Urbanism 22
  23. 23. • Massive movement to the cities • Reduced CO2 per dollar of GDP • Radical improvements in solar • Plunging global birth rates The trend lines which fuel Bright Green Urbanism 23
  24. 24. • Massive movement to the cities • Reduced CO2 per dollar of GDP • Radical improvements in solar • Plunging global birth rates • Seriously plunging birth rates in the wealthiest countries The trend lines which fuel Bright Green Urbanism 24
  25. 25. • Massive movement to the cities • Reduced CO2 per dollar of GDP • Radical improvements in solar • Plunging global birth rates • Seriously plunging birth rates in the wealthiest countries All great then? 25
  26. 26. Bright Green Urbanism doesn’t sound so bad 26
  27. 27. Unfortunately we have some issues… 27
  28. 28. Being in the global middle class burns CO2 28
  29. 29. Poor countries are close to sustainable Remember, sustainable means 
 2 tons of CO2 per person per year, or 16 gigatons for the entire planet. Everything this text block covers up is over consuming. 29
  30. 30. All great then? Unfortunately not quite yet… this is a problem NOPE just these ones just these ones 30
  31. 31. To work, Bright Green Urbanism requires close to
 ten-fold improvements in CO2 per unit of lifestyle benefit poorrich 2020 DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER rural urban poverty huge CO2 flooded, burning poor cities 2050 rural urban drought and agricultural collapse we are saved only if this exists MAYBE Bright Green Urbanism poorrich X 31
  32. 32. Let’s look at this in brutally simple terms 32
  33. 33. Here are cities. Let’s draw a line through them at two tons of CO2 per person per year 33
  34. 34. When people think Green Urbanism, they aren’t thinking Kolkata and Manila mostly Two tons per capita: all the cities above this line are unsustainable 34
  35. 35. Radical improvements in environmental efficiency (2x) get us a bit closer… but not close Say we find a way to half CO2 use: this is better, but 2x is a hard push… 35
  36. 36. A 10x efficiency boost would make most of the world’s key cities sustainable. How the helldo w e getto 10X? 36
  37. 37. • Started in 2010 • Integrative Design • Whole Systems Thinking on steroids for manufacturing • Great early work
 • But we do not have a feasible path to this 10XE world yet.
 Rocky Mountain Institute 10XE made a start on this kind of resource efficiency 37
  38. 38. • Probably the best attempt to actually design a Doughnut Economy is Lester Brown’s “Plan B”. • Plan B involves a lot of rice and beans, and recycling, and tree planting. • I think the numbers are broadly- speaking pretty reasonable. • I don’t know why Plan B isn’t much, much more widely known. • Even at 40gt we are probably doing 10% of the social good we need to do in this world. 10XE social good per unit CO2. What is the real space available to humanity in the Doughnut Economy? 40gt 16gt 38
  39. 39. • Yes, eventually. But when? • The odds are high that we will hit planetary buffers long before the last coal fired power plant is turned off. • No doubt in my mind that a “Manhattan Project” on solar is the keystone of sustainability. • But the global middle class’s insatiable appetite for stuff will still cause massive environmental problems in all scenarios. • Addressing the stuff problem helps. Can’t we fix all this with cheap solar? 39
  40. 40. todo: need to explain geoengineering specifically reversibility vs. permanent options 40
  41. 41. Bright Green Urbanism is not very likely 41
  42. 42. Let’s look at the Lean Green option Convergence on a low-burn Lean Green Urbanism 42
  43. 43. • The history is incredibly complex • The society is agrarian, but with excellent education and health care • Demographics look like Europe • CARBON NEGATIVE SOCIETY (-.5t) • 75 year life expectancy (same as Arkansas, Hungary, Fujian) • 96% literacy rate (same as Macedonia, better than any American state) 10XE is far away. Kerala works today! 43
  44. 44. • By any reasonable standard, Kerala looks like a wealthy society, except… • Kerala’s GDP per capita is $10 a day • A sane global poverty line is $7.40 a day (not $1.90) - they’re just 25% above it • Concepts like “human development index” attempt to capture this concept • Kerala scores .78 (Mexico, Georgia) but on a third or less of the money • And carbon negative… Separate Wealth from Money to see clearly 44
  45. 45. • Modelled on Amory Lovin’s 
 Soft Energy Path (1976) • A high-tech, low-impact well- organised alternative to Bright Green Urbanisation • Good evidence it can work, but maybe dependent on culture • An excellent fit for ultra-cheap solar panels and “small farm” high yield agriculture Introducing the 
 “Soft Development Path” 45
  46. 46. A Soft Development Path Gallery: Poor 46
  47. 47. rural urban 100m rural rich below 2 tons 50 million urban rich below 5 tons 1300 million rural poor close to zero 150 million urban poor below 1 ton Data is hard to find this far back - emissions were negligible rural urban 500 million rural rich around 10 tons 3000 million urban rich around 10 tons 3500 million rural poor below 2 tons 1000 million urban poor below 3 tons CO2 per capita and population numbers both approximate poorrich poorrich 1900 2020 MASSIVE RURAL POPULATION GROWTH DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER Practically no money has gone into “soft development path” approaches in 50 years SOFTDEVELOPMENT X 47
  48. 48. rural urban 100m rural rich below 2 tons 50 million urban rich below 5 tons 1300 million rural poor close to zero 150 million urban poor below 1 ton Data is hard to find this far back - emissions were negligible rural urban 500 million rural rich 2 tons? 3000 million urban rich around 10 tons 3500 million rural poor below 2 tons 1000 million urban poor below 3 tons CO2 per capita and population numbers both approximate poorrich poorrich 1900 2020 MASSIVE RURAL POPULATION GROWTH DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER Practically no money has gone into “soft development path” approaches in 50 years SOFT DEVELOPMENT PATH X 48
  49. 49. rural urban 100m rural rich below 2 tons 50 million urban rich below 5 tons 1300 million rural poor close to zero 150 million urban poor below 1 ton Data is hard to find this far back - emissions were negligible rural urban 500 million rural rich 2 tons? 3000 million urban rich around 10 tons 3500 million rural poor below 2 tons 1000 million urban poor below 3 tons CO2 per capita and population numbers both approximate poorrich poorrich 1900 2020 MASSIVE RURAL POPULATION GROWTH DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER Americans are flooding to “Zoom Towns” as commuting is taken out by covid SOFT DEVELOPMENT PATH XMaybe also for us? 49
  50. 50. MAYBE Offgrid Tiny House Suburbs MAYBE Nukes and Geoeng “BLIGHT Green” Urban Rich “problem children”
 may have other options… poorrich 2020 DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER rural urban poverty huge CO2 2050 rural urban less Bright Green Urbanism MAYBE Bright Green Urbanism poorrich eco- favelas and downshifted suburbs nuclear green and geoeng Convergence on a low-burn Lean Green Urbanism 50
  51. 51. But a Lean Green future seems more likely than a Bright Green Urbanism global solution poorrich 2020 DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER rural urban poverty huge CO2 2050 rural urban some Bright Green Urbanism MAYBE Bright Green Urbanism poorrich rural resource-rich but still cash poor RURAL SOFT DEVELOPMENT PATH eco- favelas? can we do better? URBAN SOFT DEVELOPMENT PATH 51
  52. 52. A Soft Development Path Gallery: Rich 52
  53. 53. todo: also going to need to explain what appropriate technology is, but also why Schumacher is wrong. 53
  54. 54. Before we wade into the new plan, let’s review the first major intervention I did on climate change. 54
  55. 55. (these are not architectural renderings, these are all real buildings people made from my Open Source plans) • 1995 I spent 6 months working with folks from Stephen Gaskin’s Farm in TN on zero-waste geodesic domes. • 2002 the RMI Sustainable Settlements Charrette asks for a shelter which can be folded up and reused when refugees are resettled. • The goal becomes to reshelter the hundreds of million climate refugees we are expecting, using industrial materials. • I start a 30 year project to get the job done: Open Source plans plus common industrial materials equals shelter magic. My climate journey started with by designing a shelter for refugees 55
  56. 56. (these are not architectural renderings, these are all real buildings people made from my Open Source plans) • Hexayurts spread over Burning Man: 20% or so of 70,000 people. • People build their own units, thousands per year. • Half a dozen commercial manufacturers (small scale.) • Second-generation hexayurts, called ShiftPods, get real scale. • Easy to build, all materials in the commercial supply chain, hundreds of builders, documenters, innovators. That first project is broadly- speaking on track (over decades) 56 this is real
  57. 57. (these are not architectural renderings) • UN provides tents (6 month life) to refugee camps (average stay 17 years). • Local manufacturing and deployment end-run around bureaucratic wilful blindness. • I have no doubt there will be dozens of large hexayurt cities within 10 years, right on the 30 year schedule I laid out in 2002. Formerly homeless Americans live in hexayurts today in LA. this is real 57
  58. 58. injury hunger toohot thirstillness toocold person home village town region country world the individual home hospital sewage plant toilet police military food mkts food shops kitchen stores cooking heating power station water plant tap water energy mkts fuel mkts cooling From homes to cities: 
 Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps • Next step: how do we design the infrastructure and systems for massive new refugee cities? • Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps - another Open Source system I designed. • The SCIM system has been used by several governments for humanitarian response planning. 58 Individual needs
  59. 59. communications transportation space resource control the group injury hunger toohot thirstillness toocold person home village town region country world the individual home hospital sewage plant toilet police military food mkts food shops kitchen stores cooking heating power station water plant tap water energy mkts fuel mkts cooling Mapping urban systems in crises: Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps 59 individual group organization nation state injury hunger toohot thirstillness toocold person home village town region country world shared plan shared succession model shared map jurisdiction territory effective organizations citizens international recognition
  60. 60. Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps is a design language for (refugee) cities people groups orgs states 60 injury hunger toohot thirstillness toocold person home village town region country world the individual home hospital sewage plant toilet police military food mkts food shops kitchen stores cooking heating power station water plant tap water energy mkts fuel mkts cooling shared plan shared succession model shared map jurisdiction territory effective organizations citizens international recognition communications transportation space resource control the group
  61. 61. MAYBE Bright Green Urbanism Cheap mass manufactured ecological long term refugee and general purpose housing poorrich 2020 DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER rural urban poverty huge CO2 2050 rural urban we are saved only if this exists poorrich Xflooded, burning poor cities drought and agricultural collapse 61
  62. 62. MAYBE Bright Green Urbanism drought and agricultural collapse It does not matter much whether the ecologically sound homes are built in crisis or hope - it’s the same technology poorrich 2020 DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER rural urban huge CO2 2050 rural urban we are saved only if this exists poorrich Xpoverty 62 Convergence on a low-burn Lean Green Urbanism MAYBE Offgrid Tiny House Suburbs
  63. 63. MAYBE Bright Green Urbanism drought and agricultural collapse Cheap, durable, ecological housing changes our whole environmental and economic outlook poorrich 2020 DEVELOPM ENT DISASTER rural urban huge CO2 2050 rural urban we are saved only if this exists poorrich Xpoverty 63 THE SOFT DEVELOPMENT PATH THE SOFT DEVELOPMENT PATH $1500
  64. 64. 64 $1500 • Can be mass produced without any copyright or patent licence: the design is fully public domain. • Can be manufactured from almost any industrial sheet goods requiring only a table saw. • Even if you gold plate this it’s less than $5,000. • Add additional smaller hexayurt as bedrooms or private offices. • Panels can be reused in other buildings, the shapes are all the same. • The mortgage is obsolete. The 2008 crisis need never happen again. 
 Behold the Hexayurt Quaddome
  65. 65. (these are not architectural renderings) • $350 of materials for a building which will last for years. Easy volunteer build. Simple. • Costs about the same as a disaster relief tent for initial purchase, but lasts 5x+ as long: much cheaper in the long run. • $100 for a solar charger, light, fan, and battery for basic services. • We are pretty much ready for the climate refugees. It’s just like this, but a lot more units. • And, really, only we appear to be ready. A small project in LA this is real homeless in LA 65
  66. 66. We have developed most of the tools required to rehome hundreds of millions of people affordably. Not just artefacts but living systems. Not an architectural rending. This is a photograph. 66
  67. 67. Part Two: Saving the Goddamned World 67
  68. 68. Let’s do some thinking about how the global economy works 68 Production Consumption key: assets trade money harm
  69. 69. Consumption creates Waste 69 Production Consumption Waste key: assets trade money harm
  70. 70. Investment creates Production 70 ProductionInvestment Consumption Waste key: assets trade money harm
  71. 71. The Investment, Consumption, Production, Waste pipeline powers everything except Nature itself. 71 ProductionInvestment Consumption Waste key: assets trade money harm
  72. 72. Cornucopian Optimised Production Systems Over the past 70 years, statistical and algorithmic optimisation have transformed Investment and Production systems… 72 ProductionInvestment Consumption Waste Total Quality Management Statistical Process Control Six Sigma Quantitative Finance Revolution Targeted Advertising 1950s1980s 2000s
  73. 73. Over the past 70 years, statistical and algorithmic optimisation have transformed Investment and Production systems… but Consumption and Waste remain chaotic 73 ProductionInvestment Consumption Waste Destructive Chaotic Consumption System No data to perform optimisation on yet. No data to perform optimisation on yet. Total Quality Management Statistical Process Control Six Sigma Quantitative Finance Revolution Targeted Advertising 1950s1980s 2000s Cornucopian Optimised Production Systems
  74. 74. A Lean Green Economy has to bring 
 statistical process control to Consumption and Waste processes 74 ProductionInvestment Consumption Waste The time has come to build a Lean Green Economy Gather statistical insights into Consumption patterns. Use data to correctly value and direct Waste streams into revenue streams. Total Quality Management Statistical Process Control Six Sigma Quantitative Finance Revolution Targeted Advertising 1950s1980s 2000s 2020s 2020s
  75. 75. Let’s map the loops, then get all the missing data 75
  76. 76. Investment generates returns on investment 76 ProductionInvestment Consumption Waste return on investment key: assets trade money harm
  77. 77. Recycling and coproduction reclaim value 77 ProductionInvestment Consumption Waste return on investment recycling key: assets trade money harm
  78. 78. Generating a return on investment inevitably generates waste 78 ProductionInvestment Consumption Waste return on investment recycling Capital Resources The Marketplace Unintended Consequences key: assets trade money harm
  79. 79. Capital Resources Waste depletes our capital resources over time 79 ProductionInvestment Consumption Waste return on investment recycling Capital Resources The Marketplace Unintended Consequences capital depletion key: assets trade money harm
  80. 80. Now let’s add in Natural Capital TheMarketplace Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts key: assets trade money harm 80 and make coproducts visible
  81. 81. Now let’s add in Natural Capital TheMarketplace Investment of Financial and Natural Capital creates Production Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts key: assets trade money harm 81 investment ecosystem services
  82. 82. Now let’s add in Natural Capital TheMarketplace Production fuels Consumption Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts key: assets trade money harm 82 investment ecosystem services
  83. 83. Now let’s add in Natural Capital TheMarketplace Consumption generates a return on investment Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts investment key: assets trade money harm returnon investment 83 ecosystem services
  84. 84. Now let’s add in Natural Capital TheMarketplace Production creates Waste. Consumption creates Waste. Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts investment key: assets trade money harm returnon investment 84 ecosystem services inefficiency inefficiency end-of-life
  85. 85. Now let’s add in Natural Capital TheMarketplace Waste is recycled
 or sold as coproducts Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts investment key: assets trade money harm returnon investment 85 ecosystem services technical nutrients products reuse re/upcycling supply& demand inefficiency inefficiency end-of-life
  86. 86. Now let’s add in Natural Capital TheMarketplace Waste depletes capital Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts investment key: assets trade money harm returnon investment 86 ecosystem services reduced profits technical nutrients inefficiency inefficiency end-of-life products reuse re/upcycling supply& demand
  87. 87. Now let’s add in Natural Capital TheMarketplace Pollution and so on deplete 
 Natural Capital Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts investment key: assets trade money harm returnon investment 87 ecosystem services reduced profits pollution technical nutrients inefficiency inefficiency end-of-life products reuse re/upcycling supply& demand
  88. 88. Now let’s add in Natural Capital TheMarketplace Financial Capital can be reinvested in Nature.
 
 Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts investment key: assets trade money harm returnon investment 88 ecosystem services reduced profits pollution reinvestment technical nutrients inefficiency inefficiency end-of-life products reuse re/upcycling supply& demand
  89. 89. Now let’s add in Natural Capital TheMarketplace Coproducts can also regenerate nature. Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts investment key: assets trade money harm returnon investment 89 ecosystem services reduced profits pollution reinvestment biological nutrients technical nutrients inefficiency inefficiency end-of-life products reuse re/upcycling supply& demand
  90. 90. Consumption WasteProduction By-products Natural Capital Financial Capital The Marketplace Unintended Consequences Capital Resources Reduced Profits Inefficiency Pollution Supply& Demand Inefficiency Solid Waste End-of-life Biological Nutrients Ecosystem Services Natural Capital Financial Capital Waste Supply & Demand Returnon Investment Investment Reclamation Recycling Reuse Products Technological Nutrients Reinvestment Original available from http://mushika.co.uk/ Free for most uses. See the Creative Commons license for details: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/1.0/ © Mushika Ltd 2003 • I developed this model in 2003, and it was used in an RMI report on sustainable consumption and production. • This is the 2003 diagram. • One of the first attempts to model how investor behaviour shapes our total environmental impact. • Part of an early attempt to define sustainable investment as part of the sustainable consumption and production agenda. Two personal notes: (1) this model has been battle tested 90
  91. 91. • “You know it is a whole system if the costs show up on one balance sheet, and the benefits show up on another.” • There is no balance sheet for nature. • So how could we expect business to account for it? • Of course business externalises costs. • How could it not? • Ok, let’s get back to it! Two personal notes: (2)
 Gupta’s Law of Whole Systems TheMarketplace Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts reinvestment inefficiency products investment inefficiency end-of-life pollution technical nutrients biological nutrients ecosystem services returnon investment reuse re/upcycling reduced profits supply& demand key: assets trade money harm 91
  92. 92. TheMarketplace Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts reinvestment inefficiency products investment inefficiency end-of-life pollution technical nutrients biological nutrients ecosystem services returnon investment reuse re/upcycling reduced profits supply& demand key: assets trade money harm 92 This is the full Investment Consumption Production Waste model. The economy has a lot of potential to be fully circular.
  93. 93. How today’s economy is • We are drawing down ecosystem services, i.e. Capitalism’s interface to Nature, so fast Nature is dying. • Our entire economy just bleeds energy and raw materials. • Plus global capitalism keeps going bankrupt. TheMarketplace Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts reinvestment products investment technical nutrients biological nutrients ecosystem services returnon investment reuse re/upcycling supply& demand key: assets trade money harm 93 inefficiency inefficiency end-of-life pollution reduced profits
  94. 94. • In an optimised future, all waste steams will have been thinned out as far as is ecologically necessary. • Most of this waste can be prevented or recovered if people will only think. • The resulting lean green economy is more profitable, and puts a lot of resources back into nature. • The point of maximum profitability is the point of maximum efficiency, if externalities are counted at all. How tomorrow’s economy must be TheMarketplace Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts investment ecosystem services supply& demand key: assets trade money harm returnon investment inefficiency inefficiency end-of-life pollution reduced profits products reuse re/upcycling technical nutrients biological nutrients reinvestment 94
  95. 95. 95 What went wrong: messy industrial bootstrap • THIS WAS ALL BUILT ON COAL. • These systems were never planned or designed, and still aren’t. It’s just what grew in the economy before we hit ecological limits. • All we can hope to do is reshape the incentive landscape to transition to a sustainable economy. • Hopefully radical legislation is coming to help us soon. TheMarketplace Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts reinvestment products investment technical nutrients biological nutrients ecosystem services returnon investment reuse re/upcycling supply& demand key: assets trade money harm inefficiency inefficiency end-of-life pollution reduced profits
  96. 96. What went wrong: divided guardians • The systems which should be protecting the efficiency of the entire economy in both financial and environmental terms DO NOT EXIST. • Instead we have a patchwork, mostly made of holes, and financial and environmental regulators exist in different universes. • We have to pull financial data and impact data into the same databases so that we can optimise. • How do we get a little closer to the 10XE transformation, to make room for a better life for all? TheMarketplace Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts reinvestment inefficiency products investment inefficiency end-of-life pollution technical nutrients biological nutrients ecosystem services returnon investment reuse re/upcycling reduced profits supply& demand key: assets trade money harm audit the EPA ? efficiency regulations ? recycling laws ? audit ? ? 96
  97. 97. • The IT systems used by industry are archaic: there’s just nowhere in the databases to put the information on environmental factors. • Or social factors. • Or really anything other than how much it costs. • Audit post-facto is super expensive and stupidly hard to get right (see triple entry book keeping and triple bottom line accounting for more info on this). • Lean manufacturing etc. have done fantastic work using computers to streamline production: let’s build on those modernised systems. How do we fix it? Integrated product information markets TheMarketplace Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts reinvestment inefficiency products investment inefficiency end-of-life pollution technical nutrients biological nutrients ecosystem services returnon investment reuse re/upcycling reduced profits supply& demand key: assets trade money harm audit the EPA ? efficiency regulations ? recycling laws ? audit ? ? fully integrate financial and ecological data 97
  98. 98. utility expert seller buyer compliance expert identity expert goods ecology expert • As you will discover in the next section, Mattereum has discovered a scalable business opportunity to build product information markets using the blockchain. • First for authenticity, addressing 
 $2 trillion of consumer fraud, and • in parallel, markets for ecological and social impact information. • Both on the same technology platform, for the same assets. • This is how we start integrating the databases to build a Lean Green world. About product information markets 98
  99. 99. Yes, we know, hear me out… • If you want to use computers, you’ve got two choices: • FAANGBAT companies run everything, or • Do it on a blockchain. • So if you want the global environmental management system run by a single corporation, go right ahead. • But, actually, the world’s governments will insist on local data sovereignty, so we aren’t running all of this from California. • It has to be a blockchain. • Vitalik does good work. Blockchain? Ugh. 99
  100. 100. ok fine it’s going to be a 100 slide deck 100
  101. 101. So very seriously, not today’s blockchain. • Today’s blockchain systems are roughly where the Web was in 1987, or Mobile was in 1994. • They’re toy systems printing toy money compared to what we are going to need for a global environmental management system. • We have to start building the businesses now so that we can shape and integrate into those technology platforms as they arise. • This is too important to be a passenger on the ride: we need to lead. Not today’s blockchain 101
  102. 102. • Vinay Gupta’s work in cryptography starts in the mid-90s. He ran the Ethereum blockchain launch. • Mattereum has roots going back decades in technical, legal and environmental understanding. • He did a stint on cryptographic applications research for the US Office of the Secretary of Defense, worked on the Dubai Blockchain Strategy, and of course helped launch Ethereum in a pretty responsible role. • Years in energy policy, defence think tanks, and supporting critical infrastructure provision in poor countries. • Pretty spectacular staff too. Get stuff done people. TODO: [[team slides go here]] Can Mattereum really pull off something this complicated? Vinay Gupta does the closing keynote at Ethereum DevCon One. 102
  103. 103. • The “World Wide Web” existed for a while without any Domain Names. Sites were only identified by their IP addresses until ISPs got DNS servers. We emailed around site IP lists. • Blockchains are ideal for transacting real value, but real assets do not have blockchain names yet. As a result, blockchains are filled with unreal assets: form without real content. • Mattereum creates blockchain names for physical things, like domain names were for information. • Enabling safe trade in Real World Assets. • Now the blockchain has a gateway to the real world, and the revolution can begin in earnest. Blockchain needs Mattereum Vinay Gupta does the closing keynote at Ethereum DevCon One. Ethereum launch graphics from 2015 103
  104. 104. • Elon Musk laid out a plan, where each step was profitable, which may largely fix CO2 emissions from transport, given time. • He’s 14 years into that plan and it seems to be going pretty well. He’s changed the world. • We have a plan for building a global blockchain platform for managing the world’s environmental impact, where each step is profitable, resulting in a goal state which largely manages the CO2 emissions from consumer goods. • A lot less capital intensive and risky than car manufacturing too. The Secret Tesla Master Plan this is real homeless in LA 104
  105. 105. • Built a product information market for consumer goods. • Use that money to build or integrate search engines, auction sites, securization: the whole ecosystem. • Use that money to help fix the carbon situation by creating a fully functional circular economy. • Don’t lose sight of poverty on the way. The Secret Mattereum Master Plan 105
  106. 106. todo: capital conversion matrix goes hereThere is no generally accepted rigorous definition of social enterprise. This is almost certainly a temporary state of affairs because, in the fullness of time, a legal framework akin to non-profit status is likely to arise from government finalizing the debate about what constitutes social enterprise. However, a legal definition of a social enterprise will not necessarily help us design social enterprise business models or know exactly how to go about creating successful ones. Triple Bottom Line (3BL) accounting practices are a source of significant insight into social enterprise, and I would like to present an analysis of the social enterprise conceptual framework from a 3BL perspective, using the capital conversion matrix (CCM). Triple Bottom Line asks that businesses justify themselves in three ways: natural capital, social capital and financial capital are the terms from natural capitalism for these three "bottom lines." These three are often shorthanded as planet, people and profit. Social enterprises predominantly define themselves as businesses which have a substantial impact on the second two bottom lines: cash positive with substantial social impact is the goal. But can we create a more insightful model of what a social enterprise really is? The Capital Conversion Matrix I first saw the CCM drawn on a whiteboard at the Rocky Mountain Institute in Snowmass, Colorado. It looks like this. This is a sort of 2D balance sheet. Resources come into the company at the top, and costs are at the side.Veggies come from the planet but cost profit. Staff are people and cost profit. Energy from the planet costs both profit and planet. Three Rules for Designing the Social Enterprise Vinay Gupta Hexayurt Project hexayurt@gmail.com pizzas bought interest on startup loan profit planet people planet profit/loss sweat equity staff wages pollution from energy veggies energy people capital conversion matrix for a pizza joint Using the capital conversion matrix to analyze a pizza joint is a sledgehammer to crack a nut. So let's try Grameenphone. Defining Social Enterprise I believe there are three definitive rules for designing a social enterprise. i. A social enterprise must convert financial capital into social capital. A social enterprise must also convert social capital into financial capital. Each direction of this flow There is no generally accepted rigorous definition of social enterprise. This is almost certainly a temporary state of affairs because, in the fullness of time, a legal framework akin to non-profit status is likely to arise from government finalizing the debate about what constitutes social enterprise. However, a legal definition of a social enterprise will not necessarily help us design social enterprise business models or know exactly how to go about creating successful ones. Triple Bottom Line (3BL) accounting practices are a source of significant insight into social enterprise, and I would like to present an analysis of the social enterprise conceptual framework from a 3BL perspective, using the capital conversion matrix (CCM). Triple Bottom Line asks that businesses justify themselves in three ways: natural capital, social capital and financial capital are the terms from natural capitalism for these three "bottom lines." These three are often shorthanded as planet, people and profit. Social enterprises predominantly define themselves as businesses which have a substantial impact on the second two bottom lines: cash positive with substantial social impact is the goal. But can we create a more insightful model of what a social enterprise really is? The Capital Conversion Matrix I first saw the CCM drawn on a whiteboard at the Rocky Mountain Institute in Snowmass, Colorado. It looks like this. This is a sort of 2D balance sheet. Resources come into the company at the top, and costs are at the side.Veggies come from the planet but cost profit. Staff are people and cost profit. Energy from the planet costs both profit and planet. Using the capital conversion matrix to analyze a pizza joint is a sledgehammer to crack a nut. So let's try Grameenphone. This diagram shows that Grameenphone is efficiently converting social capital to financial capital and back again. Let's break that down. The network cost (red) improves social connectivity for customers. But the Grameen distribution channels - aided by that social connectivity - help to sell the phone services. Social capital to financial capital, and financial capital to social capital. Grameenphone is a social enterprise. Defining Social Enterprise I believe there are three definitive rules for designing a social enterprise. i. A social enterprise must convert financial capital into social capital. A social enterprise must also convert social capital into financial capital. Each direction of this flow should be clearly identifiable, and the two flows together should form a positive loop, each supporting the other. ii. A social enterprise should use its alignment of interests with its customers to reduce customer-vendor conflict thereby reducing transaction costs for both parties, as trust is value. iii. A social enterprise should be net positive in both financial capital and social capital terms. It must be self- supporting financially, and produce objectively measurable social value. CSR programs from conventional companies typically fail (i) in that there is no feedback loop between core business operations and any social component. They fail (ii) because they do not build real trust. Charities usually fail (i) and (iii) by simply converting money into social good. The true social enterprise is a company which grows social capital to achieve its triple bottom line goals. The unique economic advantages of the true social enterprise will allow it to out-compete conventional businesses in many areas. I hope these models will assist with social enterprise design. network costs social connectivity phone call fees profit planet people phone ladies social network planet profit/loss Grameen channels people capital conversion matrix for Grameenph one 106
  107. 107. todo: discriminate between waste which cuts profits, and externalisation of costs on to nature or society. 107
  108. 108. Part Three: Engineering Epistemology creating systems to protect meaning 108
  109. 109. • Various brands are working piecemeal to solve this problem. • But it’s an infrastructure and architecture problem, below the level that any one retailer can solve. • Mattereum used cryptography and insurance to anchor both ends of the deal, not just the credit card payments, to get safe trade back. • Stamping out fraud is the incentive we need to get the entire consumer goods cycle on to a blockchain, where we can then go about optimising consumption and waste to hit our environmental targets. We will build an economic engine by eliminating hundreds of billions of online fraud 109
  110. 110. • Most things online sell at an “invisible” discount - we doubt that they are real, and are willing to pay less. • In wine alone this is tens of billions. • Two trillion a year of fake goods are sold to buyers. This shadow falls over all trade on the internet. • Tens of trillions of goods globally are sold at effective discounts because buyers are not sure they are real, and so reduce the price they are willing to pay for goods which may well be genuine • Second hand markets are key to the circular economy because they provide services with near-zero ecological footprint. Fraud is now the rate limiting factor in the growth of e-commerce and particularly second hand markets 110
  111. 111. Shoppers aren’t the only ones who think this is a problem 111
  112. 112. • Value exists only in networks of relationships and stories • Advertising is stories • Brands are relationships • Both are attempts to industrialise value creation • People tell us a story about what they are selling. • We tell a story when we sell. • A fair deal is when the story is true. • Congruence between things and their stories is the goal of the Mattereum platform. Seek truth. • When the stories told about goods stop being true, trade breaks down, and trade is badly impacted. Value is accessed through relationships and stories 112
  113. 113. The Yahoo home page from 1995 - it was a web ontology of content • A domain name made information valuable in three ways: • you could find the information • you could prove the information was real using cryptography (via HTTPs) • you could pay for the information • Mattereum does the same process for 
 all physical matter that holds value. • Our ecosystem will grow to encompass all valuable matter in the same way the web now stores essentially all valuable information. • I’ll explain how it works in a few slides. But first… • But how do I know the information on this “secure domain name for physical things” is true? Mattereum Asset Passports are domain names for physical things instead of information resources on web pages 113
  114. 114. • Domain Names once had a truth problem: how do I know that Amazon.com the web site is run by Amazon, Inc. and my credit card number is safe? • This problem was solved using cryptography: there is a chain of X509 digital certificates that authenticates Amazon, and protects your payment. • Several of the companies creating these certificates became the unicorns of the 1990s. • Their business model is to verify that the person asking for the certificate really is acting on behalf of the company. • The cryptography then takes that legal fact and represents it in the web browser as a little green padlock. • Those little green padlocks carry insurance. In the early 1990s e-commerce was paralysed by credit card fraud. You can tell how long we’ve been doing HTTPS certificates for from the age of the graphics 114
  115. 115. 115 cryptographyinsurance proof of insurance . user interface communicated to users Web HTTPS Trust Models proof of insurance communicated to users on the blockchain in a web/mobile app The Mattereum Asset Passport has the same logical structure as the HTTPS certificates that enabled the global e-commerce revolution. HTTPS Certificate Authorities are the trust infrastructure which has protected all e-commerce for decades.
  116. 116. • Mattereum does for the decentralised web what HTTPS did for the Web: it makes safe trade possible. • We use similar techniques: cryptography and insurance. • We build trust frameworks around valuable assets so they can be bought and sold online. • One day there will be a blockchain “Amazon for Houses” where you pay on the blockchain and the electronic locks let you, as the new owner, into your house immediately. • Mattereum makes that, and everything else like that, possible. • We use verify the house exists, and prove to all parties that you now own it. • Mattereum is the missing link for blockchain 
 e-commerce. Also we help fix climate change. Mattereum Asset Passports are like HTTPS certificates for physical things 116
  117. 117. 117 cryptographyinsurance proof of insurance . user interface communicated to users Web HTTPS Trust Models proof of insurance communicated to users on the blockchain in a web/mobile app
  118. 118. seller buyer story of goods payment delivery of goods goods • Normally a vendor is wearing two hats: they describe the goods (story), as well as delivering the goods (service). • If we could split those two roles, we could create nearly fraud-free trade • This dual role is responsible for almost all fraud: we need more voices in the conversation to build active trust. • Experts tell the story of the goods, and are assed on their accuracy. • Efficient vendors deliver the goods Mattereum uses technology to tell the story of things in a Trust Community 118
  119. 119. buyer expert seller payment for assets delivery goods • Experts tell the story of the goods. • These statements are verified by cryptography and backed by insurance. • An exact parallel to domain names secured using HTTPS certificates. • With domain names, only a single “expert” can vouch that amazon.com really is Amazon. • Mattereum Asset Passports allow for 
 multi-expert collaboration in verifying goods. • Experts work together to give us faith, certainty, and insurance on our purchases. The logic of trade using the
 Mattereum Asset Passport 119
  120. 120. utility expert seller buyer compliance expert identity expert goods ecology expert • When we wish to buy goods, we can consult with a variety of experts to corroborate the story of the goods. • Different experts can contribute their expertise so we can get a full 360° understanding of what we are buying. • Real experts, real insurance, real safety for buyers. • Lots of unexpected benefits because now we can get universal insight into the goods. • Every expert adds value to the goods. Goods are worth more in a Trust Community 120
  121. 121. utility expert seller buyer compliance expert identity expert goods • When we wish to buy goods, we can consult with a variety of experts to corroborate the story of the goods. • Different experts can contribute their expertise so we can get a full 360° understanding of what we are buying. • Real experts, real insurance, real safety for buyers. • Lots of unexpected benefits because now we can get universal insight into the goods. • Every expert adds value to the goods. Goods are worth more in a community 40gt 16gt ecology expert do not forget this bit, this is still a deck about saving the world from climate change 121
  122. 122. Mattereum claims back the value lost to fraud buyer bonus ex[expert fees Mattereum seller bonus doubt what buyers are willing to pay buyers pay full price sellers get more value FRAUD IS ELIMIATED • Buyers choose to pay less than goods are really worth to compensate them for the risk of fraud. That’s just their rational risk management. • Good sellers know their goods are genuine, and are losing 20% per sale to the “doubt discount”. • Experts bring buyers and sellers together by providing blockchain proofs (with insurance) that the goods are genuine: the community knows! • Mattereum orchestrates all these moving parts using blockchain smart contracts, and takes a cut of the fees as our compensation. • Everybody comes out ahead, and we collaborate to squeeze fraud out of markets. In the Mattereum Trust Community, we all get paid what the goods are worth 122
  123. 123. Mattereum’s addressable markets are very large 0 750 1500 2250 3000 2021 2022 2023 2024 • Wine: $364bn • Collectibles: $370bn • Fine art: $60bn • Luxuries: $1.2tn • Gold bullon: $2tn • and so on Asset onboarding (millions) 123
  124. 124. • Some experts might: • Calculate the embodied carbon in the object • Verify the carbon offsets in the Asset Passport are valid • Check the asset can be recycled effectively • Verify that no component of the asset is a result of slave labour practices • Because we have bound the commercial value of the asset directly to its ecological footprint we can now start to do ecological optimisation of our own personal footprints using the machine-readable impact records linked in the Mattereum Asset Passport. Now back to this guy: climate change 124
  125. 125. • The trouble in online commerce, and the high end fraud in art, wine, and gold, are not going away any time soon. • Our company hacks down that fraud to arbitrarily low levels, and should print money while doing so. • That money pays for the rail which manages environmental impact data right along side of the fraud prevention data. • That data opens up vast policy options, and real competition to be green. • But wait, there’s more! We have a plausible economic engine: a potential stream of profits to pay for a revolution 125
  126. 126. • Once durable goods exist, they can go round forever. • In practice, this does not happen because of friction: • It takes too much effort to document an object and find buyers. • The marketplace takes 10% to 30% for the transaction. • And people still get ripped off all the time. No guarantees. • Asset Passported second hand goods are easy to sell on the blockchain (or eBay). • Ultra-low fees for simple sales, and the “experts” can be local bike or camera or car repair stores looking for extra income. Now let’s talk about demand reduction TheMarketplace Production Capital Resources Unintended Consequences Natural Capital Financial Capital Consumption Waste Coproducts resold products technical nutrients supply& demand key: assets trade money harm 126 BUY
  127. 127. • Everybody is getting into the second hand business: IKEA, Patagonia and many more big brands are starting to act as second hand dealers for their own products. • Pro-market dynamics start to apply to more and more areas: “buy the really good stuff, use it for your project, then sell it on for 80% of what you paid for it”. • Anything which is sufficiently expensive and durable will demonstrate these dynamics: cameras, a Tesla, high fashion accessories. • Infrastructure for global corporate second hand markets is a really good place to be. Global corporate second hand markets 127
  128. 128. • Human culture knows how to make things which last essentially forever: stainless steel, polypropylene, denim, glass, aluminium. • Most well-designed useful things don’t wear out. Ever. We just need markets which incentivise these goods over trash. • In this model, you can consume as much as you like as long as you sell what you aren’t using, and your effective footprint is near-zero. • Even the first user, if the goods are near- permanent, has negligible footprint. • The global demand for durable goods is near- infinite. Elite consumption plus efficient second hand markets is a mechanism to fill this need. Second hand consumption has almost no footprint. 128
  129. 129. • This is the user interface for the circular economy. • When you purchase goods, new or second hand, they come with an AP which populates your inventory app. • Time to sell? Drag to “Sell.” • Lend? Drag to a friend, indicate which one of you is paying for the insurance. Job done. • Calculate carbon footprint, and buy offsets right in the app. • “You haven’t used $5800 worth of items in six months, would you like me to sell them?” The user interface for this new world already exists, with a billion ready users 129
  130. 130. • To get Real World Assets to behave like NFTs requires two additional components. • It needs a Titleholder and it needs a Register of Ultimate Beneficial Owners. • We know how to build both of these things. They are hard, but we’re good. • Once that’s done, transferring a RawNFT to somebody else will also transfer the legal ownership of the asset. • That’s when putting physical things that you own into Defi contracts becomes possible. • There are no shortcuts on this one. We checked. Real World Asset NFTs (RawNFTs) 130
  131. 131. • Project Status • LALAUNCHPAD.ORG is a small village of hexayurts in Los Angeles. • mattereum.com/about has working asset passports for a range of test customers including William Shater, our first pilot • mattereum.com/lp has the legal framework that powers these asset passports • Mattereum can stretch the assets for the very poorest by enabling access to tools through efficient markets. This is work in progress. • Thank you for your attention. • Two appendices follow. Mattereum and the Soft Development Path 131 • Built a product information market for consumer goods. • Use that money to build or integrate search engines, auction sites, securization: the whole ecosystem. • Use that money to help fix the carbon situation by creating a fully functional circular economy. • Don’t lose sight of poverty on the way. The Secret Mattereum Master Plan
  132. 132. 132 1. vinay@mattereum.com 2. this deck is not a solicitation of investment: those usually come without 75 pages of climate doom in the preamble.
  133. 133. Part Four: A few words from Demos Helsinki 133
  134. 134. 134
  135. 135. 135
  136. 136. 40t => 8tMaterial footprint/annum/person by 2050
  137. 137. 10t => 0.7tCO2e/annum/person by 2050
  138. 138. We can assume a plurality of social models, economic systems and technological regimes under which society and various lifestyles of its members can meet the normative sustainability target of 8 tonnes.
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  146. 146. So what we learn from SPREAD 2050? 1. The importance of long-term quantitative targets (e.g. on climate neutrality) 2. Spreadsheets that provide metrics on what is needed in order to reach the critical targets. 3. There are various social and economic models that a climate macrostrategy can legitimately assume 4. Under each social and economic model there can still be plurality of lifestyles 5. Different political groups/ideologies should have an explicitly outline climate macrostrategy, based on scientifically sound metrics, yet prioritizing their favorit values and priorities.
  147. 147. 1. Note on the DEMOS HELSKINKI SPREAD SCENARIOS 1. Clear that Mattereum-style Asset Passports are going to be ubiquitous in most of these ultra clean futures - recycling instructions by law for example 2. Also clear that substantial freedom exists even within hard ecological limits, and that the ability to count costs becomes critical in the society 3. It would be nice if all environmental politics shipped with impact models 147
  148. 148. Part Five: Tech Riffs 148
  149. 149. 1. Data Formats 1. yes, it’s all XML/JSON under the hood 2. files stored in IPFS 3. hashes of the IPFS files in Ethereum smart contracts 2. 20 years of under-commercialised work in Semantic Web / Semantic Linked Data is going to come in very, very handy 149
  150. 150. 1. Taxation 1. wow that’s sure a lot of sweet, sweet data about the CO2 footprint of things that people own… 2. Shame if somebody were to… tax it… 2. There are a bunch of ways of doing carbon taxes 3. They’re all going to be exquisitely dependent on data about CO2 content 150
  151. 151. 1. Artificial intelligence for Stablecoins 1. Put half a trillion dollars of physical stuff on the blockchain with Mattereum 2. Gold, wine, art, 100kw diesel generators, buildings 3. AI can now buy/sell/trade fine-grained down to individual assets 2. Use AI to build anti-correlated portfolios of these fine-grained assets: extremely stable portfolios, unitised and sold, used as currency. So so stable! 151
  152. 152. 1. Boring but lucrative 1. Gold bricks into MakerDAO 2. Fractional ownership of a Picasso 3. Every damn securitisation company in the blockchain space has to have some kind of back end to prove the assets exist 4. We’re going to hire some kind of financial services scaling guy to service it 152
  153. 153. 1. how do you prove the asset in the asset passport is the asset that I have just bought? 1. NFCs, or super-NFCs with key pairs in ‘em - yes those exist 2. for a violin, you take a CAT scan: it’s $1000 or so, then an expert (or an AI?) compares it with the scan whose hash is on chain 2. for land it’s easier, but the hard thing is PROVING that there’s no lien on it >>> 153
  154. 154. 1. REAL ESTATE is Evil 1. in the Netherlands, there’s 200 possible legal statuses for a piece of land and their national system includes scanned goat hide land titles - yes, they scanned goat hides in Old Dutch 2. To fix this, you need Automated Custodians to own the land and only do what they are told do to by the blockchain. Yes, this is hard. But we do hard. 154
  155. 155. 1. Automated titleholders: mattereum.com/lp describes how to do that 2. Dispute resolution: mattereum.com/lp also describes how that works 3. there is also the fiendish https://mattereum.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/ mattereum_workingpaper.pdf which is quite old now but utterly comprehensive and gets into all the rabbit holes 4. https://medium.com/humanizing-the-singularity/engineering-consumption- 155
  156. 156. 1. what’s really going to happen with the environment? 1. solar panels kill carbon really fast in most of the world, particularly for new demand 2. the installed base of cars and people living in stupidly cold places, aeroplanes. etc. keep pumping out the CO2 3. eventually somebody’s going to lose their temper and blow up the oil wells 156
  157. 157. 1. what % of environmental footprint can Mattereum really fix 1. by the time it’s done, Mattereum will be first among equals in a big, big diverse market for object intelligence 2. WHAT THE WEB DID FOR INFORMATION, BLOCKCHAIN WILL DO FOR PHYSICAL MATTER - 50% to 80% less object waste? 10%+ global net CO2? 3. Software is eating the world, and also making it searchable 157
  158. 158. 1. search for physical matter 2. search for physical matter 1. your downstairs neighbour is selling you his mac charger for $35 so you can finish your term paper, and his new one arrives tomorrow between 11AM and noon, guaranteed. 1. handy for you, but IN LIGHT INDUSTRY THIS IS GAME CHANGING 158
  159. 159. 1. small world networks: we can’t boil the ocean. But it’s not an ocean, it’s lots of rivers. Travel up the rivers of value, high fraud, high value, easy to physically ID - get scale, generate value, do tech 2. with a few very solid verticals in play, the hard, grimy push out into the endless seas of “barely worth selling, but certainly shouldn’t be landfilled” starts - I’m hoping to leave a lot of that to either our competitors or my deputies… must do. 159
  160. 160. 1. tell me a bit more about AI 2. it’s all feedstock for AI: a vast, highly accurate blockchain database of facts about the material world 3. also the AI can buy and sell stuff using the blockchain, so maybe you can teach it to recognise bargains and then auto-trade. 4. yes, I know that’s going to get really weird. Like spam, but physical things. OK. 160
  161. 161. 1. there’s a real need to finish this deck properly, and I don’t think it’s going to happen quite yet - there just isn’t time. 1. it would be 300 pages and I’d need a lot of help from Ramez Naam, who’s too busy I am sure. 2. thanks for putting up with the general oddness of it, that’s how I prevent my first drafts getting mistaken for final work product. IT WILL COME IN TIME. 161
  162. 162. The End. 162
  • DevavratRavetkar

    Dec. 19, 2020

This is a 160 page deck outlining the realities of our environmental plight, and analysing how a specific blockchain technology approach could take 5% or 10% off our global environmental footprint while also supporting certain key sustainable development goals.

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