The next decade will see continued economic growth in developing nations driven by a growing middle class and demand for goods and services. Countries with strong agricultural sectors like Argentina, Brazil, and Australia are positioned to benefit from increased food demand. However, population aging and a shrinking workforce will put pressure on labor markets, pensions, and healthcare. Developing countries need to focus on increasing productivity through higher education, innovation, and ensuring growth is inclusive across regions. Cooperation between developing nations on trade and regional value chains will also be important to sustain rapid growth rates.

1. The Next Decade of the Global Economy
Let’s start by highlighting what has been perhaps the most relevant trend in terms of
shaping our future: The last decade has seen hundreds of millions of people lift themselves
out of poverty. We’re taking about 600 million persons solely in China between 1981 and
2004. Furthermore, in the last 20 years, 1990 – 2010, developing countries halved its
overall poverty rate from 43% to 21%. And the future looks bright: academic exercises
forecast another cut in half in the next 15 years.
That means the appearance of a new -and huge for that matter- middle class in the
developing nations. That means a bigger and rapidly growing demand for consumer goods
and services. What will be its impact on global markets?
If you take into account the advent of unconventional oil technology such as oil shales and
coal and gas conversion (which will increase ostensibly the offer of energy/fuel), it is
reasonable to conclude that the hottest item on demand will be calories, followed closely
by health, education and recreational services.
What does it means? The next decade has the potential to be about agriculture. Countries
such as Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and even New Zealand or Australia have the chance to
ride a favorable wave in terms of food commodity prices.
The other side of the coin spells trouble for nations that are both big minerals/oils
producers and big food buyers, think Russia or China.
However, this growing demand is not only about good and services. The widespread rise in
living standards puts pressure on the environment. Then again if history has proven a point
is that we adapt. In order to do so, all countries will have to become much more efficient in
energy consumption, probably affecting as well global trade patterns.
The rhythm of invention, innovation and its mainstream adoption has been increasing at an
astounding pace and there is no reason to think that it will slow down. The great challenge
for emerging economies is to become part of this process through the strengthening of
private, public and university partnerships; and also, fostering technology transfer from
abroad to their local centers of knowledge and the productive sector.
The next few years the challenge for emerging countries will be all about efficient
agriculture (ie. how to grow crops with less water), new materials (ie. Higher resistance less
weight, nano-technology), crowdsourced production (ie. 3d printing), and in general a
knowledge based economy.
But we are not only about to have more “middle income” people. We are also starting to
age. In this decade the demographic bonus will be spent. The transition will be complete
and there will be less young workers than now. That means pressure for the labor market,
the pension system and health services.
The challenge lies in finding a way to produce more with less people. The next decade will
be the turning point in terms of education and innovation. Developing nations should seek

2. higher productivity with a new generation of skilled workers. The goal should be to increase
the rate of higher education from 30-50% to 50%-70% and facilitate innovation in order to
increase the emergence of entrepreneurship and starts-ups.
This would also be a way to start tackling what I consider the main challenge in the big
picture: for developing nations to achieve a socially inclusive evolution, focusing not only on
pro-poor growth but also on addressing the big geographic gaps within countries.
It is time to level the game for rural and peripheral population and walking that path
includes early childhood programs and widespread and affordable health services to name
just a few steps. In the productive rural sector means putting the agricultural sector in the
formal economy and facilitating investment, for which guaranteeing the rule of law, will be
critical.
My point is that we cannot forget that sustainable growth in the hands of a legitimate
government has to provide not only economic prosperity and stability but also credible
paths to achieve social mobility.
There is also something to be said about the role of cooperation between developing
nations. Let me elaborate. This group of countries will continue to contribute more to the
overall growth of the world GDP than the developed nations. It is time to embrace an
“open regionalism” and increase the flows of commerce between neighbors to facilitate the
participation in global and regional value chains and the sustainability of their rapid growth
rates. The partial decoupling of the emerging economies from the developed countries
economic cycle has helped a lot to increase the resilience of the world economy.
We shouldn’t focus only on the consolidated markets of the first world but also understand
our strengths as a group. Furthermore, this approach will foster desirable processes such as
productive transformations and intra-sectoral specialization increasing the productivity of
the whole region.
On a different note I cannot pass this opportunity without outlining the issue that will
shape the next decade of my own country. Success relies heavily on our ability to ensure
that the social and economic benefits of an eventual peace agreement will not be eaten
away by narcotraffic and organized crime.
While I think that is time to change the paradigm in our fight with drugs, I think that the
most important part is to be pragmatic about it. It is not the time to put all efforts towards
legalization of hard drugs when is pretty clear that the global stage is not ready or
interested enough on it.
The main discussion should be about finding ways to socially penalize consumption, and I
mean ways beyond criminal prosecution, we as policy makers have to find a way to make it
less appealing, decreasing demand and prices. It is a hard issue to deal with, but it can’t
hurt developing nations to start exploring programs such as workplace testing.

3. Another critical issue will be maintaining the rule of law in all our territories and facilitating
the participation mechanisms for the rural population and urban poor in all our democratic
institutions guaranteeing the actual exercise of their citizenship.
And finally… food for thought. Will Africa be the next Asia? I mean, the prime destination
for manufacturing thanks to cheap labor?