DWP Summer School 2008


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Talk delivered to the DWP Summer School on 'The Changing Context of Welfare'

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  • * Good to be here - strange being on other side -- used to be group facilitator Know that role of lecturer: provide something to be ripped to shreds in study group! Also: only academic speaker. Step outside of the immediate concerns of day-to-day business of DWP. Long run perspective. Also, introduce a bit of theory that might allow for some critical analysis of where we are and where we need to go. MORE SPECIFICALLY --> changing context of welfare
  • DWP Summer School 2008

    1. 1. The Changing Context of Welfare Kevin Hall & John Hudson Department of Social Policy & Social Work, University of York
    2. 2. Session Overview <ul><li>Reflect on Changing Context of Welfare </li></ul><ul><li>Major Shifts Since Beveridge & Keynes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Demographic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Political </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technological </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Social Policy Shaped by this Context </li></ul>
    3. 3. Demographic Change <ul><li>Aging Population </li></ul><ul><li>Declining Fertility Rate </li></ul><ul><li>Rising Migration </li></ul><ul><li>Fewer ‘Traditional’ Family Households </li></ul>
    4. 4. Demographic Change Source: ONS
    5. 5. Demographic Change Source: OECD
    6. 6. Demographic Change Source: ONS a Age demographic predictions – UK to 2050
    7. 7. Demographic Change Source: ONS
    8. 8. Demographic Change Source: ONS
    9. 9. Demographic Change Source: ONS
    10. 10. Labour Market Change <ul><li>Unemployment </li></ul><ul><li>Rising Part Time Employment </li></ul><ul><li>Rising Female Participation </li></ul>
    11. 11. Labour Market Change Source: OECD
    12. 12. Labour Market Change Source: OECD
    13. 13. Labour Market Change Source: ONS
    14. 14. Economic Change <ul><li>Post-Industrial Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Globalisation </li></ul>
    15. 15. Economic Change Source: ONS
    16. 16. Economic Change
    17. 17. Economic Change Source: OECD
    18. 18. Economic Change
    19. 19. Political Change <ul><li>A Hollowing Out of the State? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Transnational Governance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sub-National Governance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Agencification </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mixed Economy of Welfare </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Steering Rather Than Rowing? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wicked Issues? </li></ul></ul>
    20. 20. Political Change <ul><li>A repositioning of social policy needed? </li></ul><ul><li>Competition State replaces Welfare State? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Globalisation = low taxation and spending </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Knowledge Economy = invest in skills </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technological Change = flexible labour </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Fits New Labour Rhetoric </li></ul>
    21. 21. Political Change <ul><li>“ Beveridge, like most of his contemporaries, was committed to full employment, delivered by Keynesian demand management. The assumption of enduring full employment held good during the 1940s and 1950s . . . [but] began to come apart as early as the 1970s. . . . Today the assumption has completely broken down. Globalisation has placed a premium on workers with the skills and knowledge to adapt to advancing technology.” </li></ul><ul><li>Tony Blair </li></ul>
    22. 22. Political Change <ul><li>“… [the third way] looks to develop a wide-ranging supply side policy, which seeks to reconcile economic growth mechanisms with structural reform of the welfare state [because] in the information economy, human (and) social capital becomes central to economic success…” </li></ul><ul><li>Anthony Giddens </li></ul>
    23. 23. Political Change <ul><li>“… in a global marketplace characterised by ever more fierce competition, and unparalleled waves of technological change, we need - more than ever before - to be able to respond to change…” </li></ul><ul><li>Gordon Brown </li></ul>
    24. 24. Political Change <ul><li>“… in a globalised world, we simply cannot afford the high price of large numbers of people on benefits… we need people in work, making the best use of their talents and helping us compete” </li></ul><ul><li>Gordon Brown </li></ul>
    25. 25. Challenging Change <ul><li>Powerful notions of change </li></ul><ul><li>Danger of deterministic thinking </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Structure - Agency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>‘ Big Mac’ model </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mutually constitutive </li></ul></ul><ul><li>There are choices </li></ul>
    26. 26. Challenging Change <ul><li>“ [Beware of the Poverty of Historicism in which]… the most reasonable attitude to adopt is so to adjust one’s system of values as to make it conform with the impending changes…” </li></ul><ul><li>“ [in my view, such] belief in historical destiny is sheer superstition” </li></ul><ul><li>Karl Popper, 1957 </li></ul>