1. all other means of payment in a headlong rush toward
safety. Let us be quite clear here this morning: we
have come to this point in the cycle of currencies when
gold has become a currency and has become what we
like to refer to as being the 2nd reservable asset,
supplanting the EUR, as reserve managers at the
central banks around the world become all too aware
that the EUR denominated assets they’ve accumulated
over the course of the past decade are not heading
Wednesday, May 12th, 2010 toward total dysfunction. Rather than hold EUR
Dennis Gartman: Editor/Publisher denominated assets toward dissolution of the monetary
Phone 757‐238‐9346 Fax 757‐238‐9546 union, and not certain what shall happen along the
Email dennis@thegartmanletter.com
way, they are selling those assets, selling the EURs
London Sales: Donald Berman, Alberdon International
they receive and moving to other, better assets as
Phone: 011 44(0) 79 8622 1110
swiftly as they might. We cannot blame them for their
actions. Too, the public is doing the same, for having
seen the scenes from
GOLD IN US$ TERMS: A downtown Athens in
Double Top? We Think recent days as the
Not: Some will argue that gold’s citizens there have
become a Bubble, but we think protested the “reforms”
otherwise. It will become
Bubbly… sooner rather than that are being forced
later… but not until prices have upon them… and let us
“gone parabolic.” They’ve not
done so yet; they will, however.
be even clearer here;
these reforms are long,
long overdue and are very much needed!!... public
investors are shedding EUR denominated assets and
OVERNIGHT NEWS: are bidding for gold instead. It is not yet a frenzy. It
shall become so before too long however.
THE WORLD WANTS C$, STERLING
What this means is that even though gold seems to
AND, ABOVE ALL ELSE, GOLD as it
have gone skyward, it has not yet gone parabolic to the
shuns EURS, antipodean dollars, and nearly any and upside. It shall. Such is the nature of these sorts of
things, and gold with its strange psychological “hold”
upon people almost everywhere is perhaps the most
prone to this sort of action. Not wishing to sound like
one of the Gold Bugs like Peter Schiff and the like
whom we so openly disdain but fearing that we are
and shall be, we note that gold is bid at new highs in
US dollar terms and is bid even higher in terms of
the EUR, or of Sterling, or of the Swiss franc et al. If
the EUR were to go “sellers” below 1.2500 today,
and especially if the Yen/dollar were to go “bid”
above 93.00, we fear that the acceleration higher by
gold shall be more than merely noteworthy; it may be
2.
historic in nature. The $1 trillion in “weaponry” that the ECB/IMF have
said they intend to use shall be the worst of all
Moving on, Sterling rallied from its low yesterday at
attempts to buoy-up, or support, a bad trade… even
1.4720 when the announcement finally came that a
worse than the US government’s attempts, via the Fed,
new government in Her Majesty’s name had finally
to buoy-up the nation’s housing industry or to help the
been pieced together. For a while yesterday morning it
nation’s businesses via TARP. The authorities here are
seemed possible… although it would have been
“averaging down” into a losing trade, and we all know
manifestly idiotic had it taken place… that the Lib-
the end result of that sort of trading technique: tears
Dems would throw in with a headless Labour Party and
and losses abounding. At least the TARP funds are
form a minority coalition government. Had that
supposed to go to road building, or machinery, or
happened the only certainty would have been that a
sewage systems, or railroad tracks and the like; the $1
new election would have to have been called for within
trillion in question here is for foreign exchange support
weeks, or at least within months. But cooler, wiser
efforts and that is idiocy of the first order.
heads prevailed and Mr. Clegg was shown the
rationality in offering Liberal-Democratic support for a 05/12 05/11
Tory based government. On that news, Sterling turned Mkt Current Prev US$Change
Japan 92.85 92.50 + .35 Yen
for the better, trading up to 1.5000 before finding EC 1.2711 1.2703 - .08 Cents
resistance. Government, even coalition government… Switz 1.1090 1.1090 unch Centimes
even a Tory/Lib-Dem coalition… is better than no UK 1.5010 1.4835 - 1.75 Pence
C$ 1.0165 1.0235 - .70 Cents
government at all, for at least a while confusion is A$ .8955 .8980 + .25 Cents
defused, and confusion as we know breeds contempt. NZ$ .7175 .7200 + .25 Cents
Mexico 12.54 12.51 + .03 Centavos
Sterling has held its quiet bid from those lows, but all
Brazil 1.7885 1.7710 + 1.75 Centavos
shall be for naught if the EUR breaks below 1.2500, Russia 30.27 30.22 + .05 Rubles
carrying the rest of the forex world with it. China 6.8276 6.8276 + .14 Renminbi
India 45.29 45.13 + .16 Rupees
Moving on then, is 1.2500 likely to be “given” today? Prices "marked" at 09:45 GMT
Our answer is, “Yes, quite probably… and if not today,
Regarding the economic news of the day, Germany
then tomorrow, and if not tomorrow, then Friday.”
has rather unexpectedly reported growth… yes
Europe is in dissolution. The EUR… as magnificent an st
growth!!!... in its economy in the 1 quarter of this year,
experiment as it was… is on its way to oblivion, for the
tepid and “revisable-away” it might be in the future
market knows, and the authorities there know, and we
given the very small number that was reported out of
know that if $1 trillion in “weaponry” can only push the
Berlin today. Growth in the 1st quarter was 0.2%
EUR higher for one day before it comes under assault,
compared to that of the 4th quarter of last year, and
then the EUR is terminally weak. We have been EUR-
was +1.7% year-on-year. As everyone should
skeptics here at TGL for many, many years, believing
remember, the German economy was contracting at a
initially that the EUR would never really become a
1.5% annualised rate in the 4th quarter, so this is a
viable currency, and believing even more that if it did
good number. Certainly, however, it is not a great
become the adopted currency of a newly “unified”
number. Great numbers are those of Canada, or
Europe it would not survive long given the cultural,
China, or even the US. This number was a nice
philosophical and even religious differences that mark
number; a pleasant number: a non-robust “Third Way”
the various nations in a federalized Europe. Now we
number that is about as good as can be expected.
are watching the EUR’s dissolution and eventual
German capital markets traders were expecting
demise before our very eyes and it is not pretty to
something closer to 0.0% quarter-on-quarter and 1.2%
watch. It shall become uglier still and it may become so
year-on-year. The impact upon the EUR? Negligible…
quickly.
if anything at all. The EUR has other concerns at the
3.
moment beyond a mere positive “miss” of 0.5% in COMMODITIES PRICES HAVE DONE
annualised GDP growth.
NOTHING, GENERALLY, in the past
As for the US, the focus today shall be upon the twenty four hours if by “generally” we mean the net
International Trade figures. We care not a whit about changes in the broad commodity market indices, for
the trade data, and have not for a decade or more. the net movement of the DJ-UBS and the
There was a time in the not-so-distant-past when the Reuters/Jefferies indices is zero since yesterday. The
trade data trumped all other concerns. Then, the precious metals are of course massively stronger, and
markets would actually grind to a halt in the days the grains are modestly so, but the base metals are
preceding the release of the trade imbalance; now the weak and energy is weaker. Thus, those who argue
trade numbers come and go with only a passing nod in that commodities are an asset class are left to explain
their direction. In a world where a simple key-stroke this huge divergence between the base and precious
can send tens of billions of dollars across one border metals, or between the grains and energy. Again,
and to another, the trade figures are really quite commodities are not an asset class; they are instead
unimportant. More important are capital flows, for real individual entities driven by their own supply demand
capital net inflows mean that confidence in the figures in an ever changing global economy. Bonds
currency is rising, and real capital outflows mean the are an asset class: real estate is an asset class;
opposite… sometimes, and sometimes not. Further, equities are an asset class. Commodities? They are
an airplane order sped-up or another airplane order anything but.
delayed by a day or two or three can mean the
difference in tens of billions of dollars, distorting the Concerning gold, we note that for the first time in
trade data materially even through the actual trade several weeks one of the legacy central banks of
itself that generated the number was done weeks ago. Europe was in the market last week selling a small
The whole exercise in waiting for and forecasting the sum of gold under the auspices of The Washington
number seems sadly comical to us here. Agreement. The sum was less than small… it was
meagre… 1125 ounces or just a bit less than $1.4
That caveat having been given, we look for the trade million. As our friend, John Brimelow notes, sales such
deficit for March… and let’s remember, this is a bit of as these are “usually explained as coin transactions.”
data that is already nearly two months old!!!....to be a This time, however, no explanation was given. Given
bit higher than was the deficit for February, which was the meagre size of the transaction, no explanation
itself $-39.7 billion. The Street, according to needed to be given.
Bloomberg.com, has the deficit at $-41.0 billion, with a
The movement of the past several days sets the stage,
range from low-to-high of $-38 to $-42 billion.
as noted above, for a parabolic move higher. It is not
fear that we sense developing in the capital markets, or
All we know for certain is that since the economy here
more properly in the foreign exchange markets, but
in the US turned for the better late last summer and
rather it is disdain and dismay for currencies generally.
early last autumn the trade deficit has been worsening.
Again, we are not gold bugs here at TGL. We do not
The reality of the world in the 90’s and early ‘00’s was
believe in black helicopters, or the Bilderbergs, or the
that the stronger the US economy the worse was the
Trilateral Commission, or the Oswald-wasn’t-alone
US trade deficit. Back then we actually cheered the
Tommy rot that the gold bugs are prone to. We find
higher trade deficits near $-60 billion for the meant that
that sort of thing laughable and sad at the same time.
consumer demand for goods and services was high
But we do understand the role that gold is beginning to
and rising. We long for those same days to return. We
play amongst the reserve managers of the world and it
await their arrival optimistically.
is a larger and larger role. It is reasonable that it should
4.
be. Were we a manager at one of the 1st or 2nd tier delay the crop will be put into the ground far ahead of
central banks of the world, and were we to find any problematic dates.
ourselves too deeply immersed in EUR denominated
As for wheat, the Department had all winter wheat
assets, accumulated by ourselves or by our
production forecast at 1.458 billion bushels, well above
predecessors from years past, we would certainly be
the consensus “guess-timate” of 1.435 billion bushels,
looking for ways to dis-invest in EURs at the largest of
but the market took that rather bearish number quite
margins for from this point on the “risk/reward” to one’s
well, finishing the day higher.
job becomes terribly skewed. If the EUR does decline
into oblivion and if one were to be left holding large Turning to the corn market, firstly the Department
sums of EUR denominated debt, one’s job and one’s raised the old crop carryout by a rather sizeable 161
country’s assets and perhaps one’s life would be very million bushels and it had the new crop on 88.8 million
much in jeopardy. So ridding oneself of those EUR acres to be planted with a trend line yield of 163.5
assets buys job security and buys diversification. bushels/acre [Ed. Note: The yield last year was 164.7
bushels/acre just for comparison purposes) for a
If the EUR does remain intact, then one can always
potential new crop of 13.37 billion bushels. Simply put,
buy those assets back, holding the gold that one had
this is a lot of corn. Given this size, and given that this
bought anyway, and arguing that prudence carried the
is an election year, and given further the public’s
day. One’s job is probably still secure; the nation’s
strange embrace of ethanol, we have to imagine that it
assets are still intact and new assets can be deployed
is only a matter of weeks before the Obama
as one sees fit at the time. But for the moment, with the
Administration raises the ethanol mandate from 10% to
EUR tenuously poised on a brink, swapping EURs for
15% for gasoline. In so doing, it will “buy” votes on
gold seems reasonable, wise… even prudent. And so
nearly all fronts… from the farmers to the public…
gold goes bid and EURs go offered. We needn’t really
hoping to secure Democratic control of the House and
know anything more:
the Senate for another two years at least.
05/12 05/11
Gold 1233.6 1209.4 + 24.20 ENERGY PRICES ARE TRYING TO
Silver 19.45 18.40 + 1.05!!!!
Pallad 526.00 520.00 + 6.00 MOVE HIGHER but the stronger US dollar has
Plat 1693.0 1684.0 + 9.00
made that a bit more difficult. However, prices are
GSR 63.40 65.70 - 2.30!!
Reuters 264.95 265.44 - 0.1% holding and it does appear for the nonce that $74-$76
DJUBS 130.30 130.24 + 0.1% is holding for WTI. We do note that WTI has now gone
Regarding the grains, the USDA’s supply/demand discounted to Brent all the way out into early ’11, and
figures from yesterday were not all that exciting, other that we find worthy of note.
than to those intimately involved in the grain business.
This is Wednesday and that means the DOE
The USDA had the old crop carryover in soybeans
inventories are due out. The API’s were out last
unchanged at 190 million bushels, but had the
evening and the crude build was “only” .4 million
prospective new crop carryout at a very comfortable
barrels, down from the trade’s pre-report guess-timate
365 million bushels, about 25-30 million bushels more
of +1.6 million barrels. Gasoline inventories, on the
than LaSalle Street had been looking for. The
other hand, fell 0.9 million barrels, and that was a
Department had crop yields at 42.9 bushels/acre, spot
bullish bit of surprise. Distillate inventories rose 0.1
on the trend line of the past several years. Concerning
million barrels, leaving the aggregate +0.8 million
planting, it is raining in the Midwest, delaying planting
barrels, well below what had been feared. But this was
for a few days, but the crop was well ahead of
the API data, and this data is even more erratic than is
scheduled until the rains this week, and even with this
5.
that from the DOE, so we take it with a grain of trading Just to make our point a bit clearer, in harder numbers
salt. rather than in graphic form, we note that the average
July’10/”red” July’11 contango for both Brent and WTI
Going into the DOE figures, the trade is looking for
crude was two weeks ago $4.75. Last week it was
crude inventories still to be up around 1.2-1.4 million
$5.33. This morning it is $6.62. Crude is bidding for
barrels; for gasoline inventories to be up 0.3-0.7 million
storage when and where it can be found [Ed. Note:
barrels and for distillates to be up 1.0-1.5 million
Because we had trouble reporting the net changes in
barrels, for an aggregated increase of 3.05 million
prices here yesterday, the net changes noted this
barrels. Our confidence in this number? As usual it is
morning are from two days ago, just for consistency’s
near nil, but we’ve no choice other than to put some
sake. We trust this will not be too confusing.]:
number forward… and so we have.
JulyWTI down 63 80.55-60
The crude oil market remains in a huge contango, with AugWTI down 35 82.54-94
soon-to-expire June now trading very nearly $4/barrel SepWTI down 26 83.63-68
OctWTI down 22 84.43-48
less than July [Ed. Note: Cf. the chart of the NovWTI down 18 85.10-15
June/July’10 contango, taken this morning from the DecWTI down 14 85.65-70
work done by the very capable and always interesting Jan WTI down 11 86.03-08
OPEC Basket $83.91 04/26
Mr. Stephen Schork of the eponymous daily newsletter Henry Hub Nat-gas $4.15
on the energy markets. Those in the energy business
that do not subscribe to Mr. Schork’s work should do SHARE PRICES HAVE FALLEN
so! He can be reached at:
contact@schorkreport.com.] For those with the ability
SINCE YESTERDAY in what has become
to do so, standing or delivery of June futures, storing known as “Turnaround Tuesday.” For months, most of
the crude and then retendering it into July the returns the upside in the markets has taken place on Mondays;
are astronomical when annualised. For refiners, there much, if not most, of the downside has taken place on
is nearly as much money to be Tuesdays, and that tendency
made by merely storing crude continues this month as it
and selling the deferred has for months past.
futures as there is by “boilin’”
Several things have our
the black stuff and turning it
interest, note the least of
into gasoline, distillates, jet
which is that the shares of
fuel and other residuals. The
companies such as MMM,
refiners have to asking the
P&G, and most notable of
question, “Why run the risks of
all, GS, which suffered the
pushing crude through our
most last week during the
refineries when we can sit tight
“Flash Crash” remain
with crude inventories and
vulnerable to selling. Many stocks have gone back to
short deferred futures and make the same sums of
and beyond the levels that prevailed just before these
money?” It is a very reasonable question with a very
problems erupted, but Goldman has not. We find that
clear answer: there is no reason to take the chances
disconcerting… indeed very so. Stocks that cannot
with cracking crude; sit tight with the inventories; be
rally when others do, will weaken when these same
paid handsomely and wait… and wait… and wait some
others simply hold steady and will fall badly when the
more. If one’s bank lines are secure and if the storage
others merely falter. Our old rule is to “Thrown rocks
facilities are there, cracking crude is senseless; storing
into the wettest paper sack.” Goldman’s business
it is wisdom: It can always be cracked later.
6.
model remains intact; its “headline risk” on the other
hand is high and is growing. Goldman, we should note I hope this is the start of the new politics I
here is our clearing broker for our hedge fund, and have always believed in - diverse, plural,
government, where politicians of different
we’ve nothing but confidence in its ability to handle any persuasions come together, overcome their
and all business that comes its way. Further, there is differences in order to deliver good
no stronger, nor better CEO in the business than is Mr. government for the sake of the whole country
…. [so] I can imagine this evening you'll be
Lloyd Blankfein, but its shares remain vulnerable. having many questions, maybe many doubts,
Headline risk will do that sort of thing: about this new governing arrangement.
But I want to assure you that I wouldn't have
Dow Indus down 37 10,748 entered into this agreement unless I was
CanSP/TS up 53 12,001 genuinely convinced that it offers a unique
FTSE down 53 5,334 opportunity to deliver the kind of changes you
CAC down 27 3,693 and I believe in…. So I hope you'll keep faith
DAX up 20 6,038 with us, I hope you will let us prove to you that
NIKKEI down 17 10,394 we can serve you and this country with
HangSeng down 95 20,040 humility, with fairness at the heart of everything
AusSP/AX up 26 4,574 we do, and with total dedication to the interests
Shanghai down 6 2,649 and livelihoods of everyone in Great Britain.
Brazil down 1028 64,425
TGL INDEX down 0.3% 7,521 It was a most pleasant speech and set the tone for
ON THE POLITICAL FRONT, standing what is hoped shall be a reasonable stable and
reasonably long standing government that shall not
outside of #10 Downing Street, Mr. David Cameron
require the British people to head back to the polls
ushered in a new government in the UK, saying in what
anytime soon. There are a number of things that have
seemed to us to be a nicely commanding voice,
been worked out already, not the least of which is a
pledge to have a referendum on any further transfer of
Her Majesty, The Queen, has asked me to
form a new government and I have accepted. powers to the EU and a commitment from the Lib-
Dems not to adopt the euro for the lifetime of the next
We rather like the British way of doing this sort of thing, Parliament.
for no country anywhere does pomp and no nation
holds to good manners and traditions as well as does
GENERAL COMENTS
Britain. Rule Brittania! It is the glue that keeps the
ON THE CAPITAL MARKETS
remnants of Empire together, and we wish Mr.
Cameron God speed in taking over this rather difficult
JAPAN’S INSOLVABLE DILEMMA:
job. After a good deal of back room haggling, and after
Japan is getting very old, and Japan is about to
a stumble or two by former Prime Minister Brown, Mr.
become very, very small, for her people have simply
Cameron and Mr. Clegg hammered out a series of
passed beyond that point in the demographic cycle
agreements that will allow for a coalition government to
where they replicate themselves and keep the
be seated, removing the confusion of the past several
population young and growing. Instead, Japan’s men
weeks within the UK itself and replacing it with the
and women are becoming steadily older; there are
confusion facing the UK as she looks across the
fewer and fewer and ever so many fewer young babies
Channel and sees Europe in all sorts of political and
born that Japan has passed the tipping point… to the
monetary trouble.
point where the government has said that the
population there shall fall by half sometime after 2050.
That being said, Mr. Clegg said, when announcing that
Until then, there will be fewer Japanese alive in the
he and the other leaders of the Liberal-Democrats had
various islands that are that once proud nation.
reached an accord with the Tories that
7.
Indeed, it is quite possible, in many villages in some of than marginally… very so… to change itself. Japan,
the northern islands, never to hear the sound of an we fear, is doomed to demographic failure and we are
indigenous baby crying again. watching this great train wreck in very, very slow
motion, knowing all too well what the final outcome
But beyond that, Japan is aging… rapidly. According shall be.
to the government, Japan’s median age is presently
45.1, but it will be all the way out to 59 by 2064. Having “HIE THEE TO A UNIVERSITY:”
a median age of 59 means that have the people in the
Actually Hamlet said to Ophelia, “Get thee to a
country will be less than 59 and half shall be older than
nunnery,” rather than “Hie thee…” as he spoke to
59. Never has there been a nation as “old” as Japan is
Ophelia only moments after his “To be or not to be”
about to become, and no matter how one tries to “spin”
soliloquy in Act III, scene I of “Hamlet,” but it makes
that information it cannot be spun bullishly.
little difference. His point was made.
Let us consider something known as the “Dependency
We this morning are saying to the children of our
rate,” which is the ratio of dependent to productive
clients, “Hie thee to a university” in light of the data that
citizens. Historically, demographers classify people
keeps piling in to us on what is taking place in the new,
between the ages of 20-64 as “productive,” while
small, modern world that “pays” more and more for
classifying those less than 20 and those older than 64
education, and pays less and less for brawn and hard
as “dependent.” As the population grows older and as
labour. The Brookings Institute, a centre-left think
there are fewer and fewer “productive” workers, this
tank… and one of the very few centre-left TT’s that we
aged dependency rate moves “from the lower left to
give any credence to… notes that since 1979 the real
the upper right” and that is never good. Japan has no
wages paid in the US according to levels of education
choice… absolutely no choice… but to make certain
are as follows (hourly earnings in real terms, rounded
that all of its “productive” citizens work, and it has to
to the nearest whole number)::
force those who are elderly to continue to work much,
much later in life than they had expected to previously.
High school dropouts males -15%
females - 1%
Secondly the government is going to have to increase
High school graduates males -12%
the consumption tax levied there. Thirdly, society will
females + 5%
have to focus upon education predicated upon and
directed toward real production and away from art, law Some college males - 5%
females +11%
and perhaps even accounting. The average retirement
age is going to have to be pushed far into the future, College graduate males +10%
perhaps to 75 or more… and even then it will be females +30%
difficult, if not entirely impossible, to maintain the Post-Graduate males +25%
pension payouts that have heretofore been promised. females +35%
We see no way out for Japan from its demographic Education pays… across the board, and it pays hugely
trap other than to fling open the gates of its harbours as the data shows. Yes, education is expensive and
and invite… aggressively invite… foreigners into the yes one forgoes the incomes that might be earned
country. That, however, will never happen in Japan. while one is being educated but when one compares
Japan prides itself upon its racial purity. It defines the the +25% increase for men with some post-graduate
Japanese psyche; it dominates Japanese foreign education to the -15% for male high school drop-outs
policies with its neighbours and it will not bend other and computes that over one’s lifetime it is a huge… a
stunningly huge… difference that keeps getting “huge-
8.
er” with each passing year. So, “Get thee to a provided for informational purposes only. The Gartman Letter
L.C. serves as a sub adviser to the products mentioned below.
university” then! Investors in the CIBC Gartman Global Allocation Deposit Notes
should go to:
http://www.cibcppn.com/ScreensCA/canproductsearch.aspx?QS=gartman&PC=0&NN=&M
RECOMMENDATIONS DRS=&MDRE=&IDRS=&IDRE=&ADP=&FC=&ADV=False
for more information. Existing investors in HAG should go to
1. Long of Four Units of the C$ and Three http://www.hapetfs.com/gartman_cf.asp.
of the Aussie$/short of Five Units of the In our Canadian “Notes” we did make changes to the portfolio last
EUR and Two Units of the Yen: Twenty weeks ago week but they were not material changes. We are, as of late last
week...
we bought the Canadian dollar and we sold the EUR with the cross
trading 1.5875. Eighteen weeks ago we added to the trade at or near Long: 15% gold; 10% silver; 15% Canadian and 15% Australian
1.5100, and twelve weeks ago we added yet again, giving us an dollars… and the only change we made here was to increase our
average price of 1.5250. The cross is trading this morning at 1.2920, position in Silver modestly.
having traded at 1.400 Friday morning and these are new lows for
the year in our favour. Twelve weeks ago we bought the A$ and we Short: 15% EURs; 15% Pounds sterling; and 15% Yen. Here we
sold the EUR at or near .6417. It is this morning trading .7045 cut our short position in corn and added to our short position in Yen.
compared to .6983 Friday and nearly new highs for us.
Horizons AlphaPro Gartman Fund (TSX:HAG):
Yesterday’s Closing Price on the TSX: $9.16 vs. $9.08
2. Long of Two Units of Gold with one Yesterday’s Closing NAV: $9.21 vs. $9.15
priced in EUR and One in Yen terms: Nearly
nine weeks ago we bought three units of gold via the EUR, the CIBC Gartman Global Allocation Deposit Notes Series 1-4;
British Pound Sterling and the Swiss franc and one day later we The Gartman Index: 116.32 vs. 115.69 previously; and
bought gold in Yen terms. We did so with gold trading £706; €812, The Gartman Index II: 93.87 vs. 93.36 previously.
CHf 1190 and Yen 101,824. As we write, gold is trading £821.85
compared to £815.25 yesterday; €970.55 compared to €952.05 Unofficially for April the NAV of our ETF closed at 9.1445, which
yesterday; CHf1368.05 compared to CHf1341.25 yesterday, and we round to 9.14 for our reporting purposes here each day. Also
¥114,540 compared to ¥111,870 yesterday also. unofficially, the average closing price for the various tranches
of our “notes” in Canada ended April at 104.88. After a rather
Friday morning we wanted out of half of this trade, and so we violent start to the month, we are profitable in both instances
took the Sterling and Swiss franc portions off upon receipt of with the ETF up 0.8% and our notes up 0.1%
this commentary. Now, we need to find a place to get back in.
We’ll sit tight with the remaining position, and we shall look for any Good luck and good trading, Dennis Gartman
periods of reasonable… and hopefully material… correction into
which to buy back that which we’ve sold … and a bit more.
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As we have said, we now have to go out and find new trades to This publication is proprietary and intended for the sole use of subscribers. No license is granted to any
subscriber, except for the subscriber’s personal use. No part of this publication or its contents may be copied,
replace the ones that did us so much good for such a long period of downloaded, stored in a retrieval system, further transmitted, or otherwise reproduced, stored, disseminated,
time, but to which we intend to return in the not-so-distant future. As transferred, or used, in any form or by any means, except as permitted under the subscription agreement or
noted recently, perhaps buying steel and buying gold, or buying with the prior written permission of The Gartman Letter, L.C. (“Gartman”). Any further disclosure or use,
copper while buying gold, or buying stocks while buying gold… or distribution, dissemination or copying of this publication, message or any attachment is strictly prohibited.
buying lumber while buying gold… all positions that shall benefit from
Each reproduction of any part of this publication or its contents must contain notice of Gartman’s copyright.
what we are calling the “Zimbabwe-isation” of the capital markets in
Pursuant to U.S. copyright law, damages for liability or infringing a copyright may amount to $30,000 per
Europe. We are not ready to act yet, but we obviously are infringement and, in the case of willful infringement; the amount may be up to $150,000 per infringement, in
considering acting, and those with a somewhat more acute sense of addition to the recovery of costs and attorneys’ fees. Gartman is financial publisher, publishing information
timing and/or a greater sense of trading adventure might wish to about markets, industries, sectors and investments in which it believes subscribers may be interested. The
information in this letter is not intended to be personalized recommendations to buy, hold or sell investments.
venture in this morning. Gartman is not permitted to offer personalized trading or investment advice to subscribers. The information,
statements, views and opinions included in this publication are based on sources (both internal and external
The following positions are “indications” only of what we hold in our sources) considered to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their
accuracy, completeness or correctness. Such information, statements, views and opinions are expressed as
ETF in Canada, the Horizon’s AlphaPro Gartman Fund, at the end of
of the date of publication, are subject to change without further notice and do not constitute a solicitation for
trading yesterday. We reserve the right to change our the purchase or sale of any investment referenced in the publication.
opinions at any time and at a moment’s notice:
SUBSCRIBERS SHOULD VERIFY ALL CLAIMS AND DO THEIR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING
IN ANY INVESTMENTS REFERENCED IN THIS PUBLICATION. INVESTING IN SECURITIES AND OTHER
Long: We are long of an “Asian” short term government bond INVESTMENTS, SUCH AS OPTIONS AND FUTURES, IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE
OF RISK. SUBSCRIBERS MAY LOSE MONEY TRADING AND INVESTING IN SUCH INVESTMENTS.
fund and we still have a small position in Canadian nat-gas trusts.
We are long of the C$; long of gold; long of a property REIT focused
Affiliates of Gartman serve as investment advisers to clients, including limited partnerships and other pooled
upon rental units; long of silver; long of a surgical supply firm and investment vehicles. The affiliates may give advice and take action with respect to their clients that differs
now also of Steven Jobs. from the information, statements, views and opinions included in this publication. Nothing herein or in the
subscription agreement shall limit or restrict the right of affiliates of Gartman to perform investment
management or advisory services for any other persons or entities. Furthermore, nothing herein or in the
Short: We are short Sterling, short of the EUR and short too of subscription agreement shall limit or restrict affiliates of Gartman from buying, selling or trading securities or
other investments for their own accounts or for the accounts of their clients. Affiliates of Gartman may at any
the Yen. We remain short of office suppliers but we’ve covered our
time have, acquire, increase, decrease or dispose of the securities or other investments referenced in this
short in children’s clothing. Finally, having bought the surgical supply publication. Gartman shall have no obligation to recommend securities or investments in this publication as
firm noted above , we sold the largest “search” firm short to hedge result of its affiliates’ investment activities for their own accounts or for the accounts of their clients. If you
that position… and that has served us rather well. have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by electronic mail or telephone. This
disclaimer applies to any trial subscription. Anyone who says otherwise is itchin' for a fight.
The following is not a recommendation, a solicitation or an offer to
sell the securities and reflects publicly available pricing information
