3. Abstract
Three years after being taken #1 overall in the 2007 NBA Draft by the Portland Trailblazers,
Greg Oden has been a massive disappointment and proven to be a bust. His inability to stay on the
court in more ways than one, substandard production when on the court, and inability to be a consistent
difference maker in the NBA back up such bold claims, leading to the conclusion that Portland wasted
their #1 draft pick on a player who was not as good as previous #1 draft picks, nor as good as players
taken after Greg Oden. Irrefutable statistical data backs this up, as the following will show. Based on
these conclusions, we can learn that, in the future, it would be wise to pick the 18 year old once-in-a-
generation scoring machine over the 75 year old geriatric man with uneven leg lengths.
4. Chapter One – What is a Bust?
When discussing the topic of whether or not Greg Oden is a bust, the first thing that needs to be
understood is the term 'bust' with regards to sports. So we open with the simple task of defining what
makes a bust.
Although formal definitions are somewhat uncommon due to the derogatory nature of the term,
a bust in this context is considered a high-draft pick who fails. In the context of the NBA, more specific
terminology is called for. Obviously, a high-draft pick is, at the minimum, a lottery pick. Depending on
the strength of a draft class, what makes a high-draft pick can be changed from season to season. It is
safe to say that any player taken in the top six of a draft, regardless of draft class, has particularly high
expectations. It could be argued that the same could be said for the top eight, but let's proceed with a
top six prerequisite.
Next, the high-drafted player needs to seriously fall short of expectations for the team that
selected him. In the NBA, a high draft pick is expected to be a top contributor to a championship
winning team at some point in their career. A player can do this by being a quality scorer, play
maker/passer, defender, leader, or rebounder, or any combination of these qualities. And they are
expected to display these qualities for the team that drafted them within a few seasons.
For this article, I'll make references to 'stats', a statistic that I find to be useful in looking at
players. There are two types of stats, major stats and total stats. The major stat is the sum of the three
statistical categories out of five (Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals) that the player is most
prominent in and the total stat is the sum of all five categories.
With this in mind, take a look at the stats of some recent 1st overall NBA draft picks in their first
few seasons.
Major Stat (1) Total Stat (1) Major Stat (2) Total Stat (2) Major Stat (3) Total Stat (3)
Derrick Rose 27 28 30.6 31.6 ? ?
Dwight Howard 23.7 25.5 29.7 32 31.8 34.6
Lebron James 32.3 34.6 41.8 44.6 45 47.4
Andrew Bogut 17.2 20.1 21.6 25.3 25.8 29.2
Andrea Bargnani 16.3 17.6 14.4 15.8 21.9 23.5
Kwame Brown 8.5 9.6 13.7 15 19 21.4
What conclusions can we draw from this? Rose has shown his value as a high pick early in his
career, and has already justified Chicago's #1 overall pick. Howard progressed from a solid contributor
into a monster. James went from one of the all-time great rookies to one of the greats in the league.
Bogut started off questionably but got better and evolved into a quality player. Bargnani was shaky but
improved enough to at least show he can be an okay contributor. Kwame Brown had a miserable start
and managed to progress to mediocrity.
Howard and James are among the top five players in the league today, Rose is one of the up and
coming stars, Bogut has evolved into an elite big man, Bargnani is a talent with an unusual skillset with
some weaknesses, and Brown is one of the bigger busts in recent times. I must stress, this doesn't
always work out. Joe Smith for instance showcased more potential early in his career than he ended up
showing, and Kobe Bryant didn't suggest he'd become one of the all-time great scorers until his fifth
season, but it's a fair way to evaluate players with high expectations. In all six of the above instances,
cues given early in a player's career gave an idea of where they were headed, except for Rose who has a
5. future who is yet to play out.
Another thing to consider is how a player performed in college, presumably a NBA team hopes
that a player can do similar to things in the NBA. Derrick Rose had 24.1 major stats in 40 games on
Memphis, a well rounded point guard threat. Dwight Howard's 4 years in high school saw a 36.3 major
stat spread, as well as 51 major stats in his senior year, a man among boys who dominated the boards
and had insane athletic abilities. Lebron James averaged 21-6.2 his freshman HS season, 38.2 major
stats as a sophomore, 43 major stats as a junior, and 44.8 major stats in his senior season, another
completely dominant force who could do any and everything for his team. Bogut's two seasons in
college featured 30 major stats over 68 games, a high percentage shooter who was known as a quality
defender. Bargnani had 24.1 major stats in his final season in Euroleague, an emphasis placed on his
combination of center size and elite three point shooting. These five players are doing the same things
they did in college, high school, or euroleague, so the team's that drafted them got what they bargained
for.
Kwame Brown, on the other hand, concluded his HS career at the historic Glynn Academy as
the all-time leading rebounder (1,235) and shot-blocker (605), as well as being second all-time in
scoring (1,539). His senior major stats came in at 39.2. The Wizards did not get what they were hoping
out of the Brown union, expecting a dominant big man. So this is yet another reason we can call Brown
a bust.
On top of being a large disappointment, a player taken in the draft after the player is often a
much better player. For the drafting team to truly feel as if they wasted their pick, there has to be a far
superior player who was available at that pick they could have taken instead. For instance, if the twenty
players taken after Kwame Brown all proved to be bad to average players, at least Washington could
say that there was nothing 'right' they could have done with the pick and their picking of Brown meant
nothing. Of course, Pau Gasol went just 2 picks after Brown, a big man like Brown who proved to be a
far better player, so it is fair to say that Washington took a poor player when a great player was there.
A bust also sets the team that drafted him back, forcing them to pursue other means to fill a hole
on their team. For instance, the Bulls drafted Derrick Rose and now have no need to pursue an elite
point guard since they are secure at that position for the next decade. The Wizards, on the other hand,
found themselves out a center four years after taking Brown and needed to pursue a new one.
Finally, often the player leaves the team that drafted him, either to another team to play a
piddling role or leaving the league entirely. The team gets either no compensation (other than no longer
having to pay the player) or a compensation far smaller than the amount they spent to get the player.
From this point, the player may or may not redeem their career, but the team that selected them has
already sunk the cost of selecting the player and will still regard him as a bust.
So now we know what a bust is and the requirements for being one. To recap:
– Must be selected within the top-six picks of a NBA Draft
– Must fail to produce for the team that drafted them in the first few years of career
– Must fail to live up to expectations established in college/high school/europe
– Must be selected above a considerably superior player in hindsight
– Must set the team that drafted them back by leaving them lacking at a position
– Must eventually leave the team, giving the team back little to nothing in compensation
6. Chapter Two – Understanding Greg Oden
Now that we understand the 'bust' part of the claim that 'Greg Oden is a Bust', we now need to
reach some conclusions about understanding Greg Oden. Specifically, what did he do to generate the
hype and hope necessary to be selected 1st overall in a draft?
So we need to trace his career arc to see how we got here. In Middle School, a young Oden
played interscholastic basketball, then dominated the scene at Lawrence North High School, where he
won three straight Indiana Class 4A championships. Parade named him Co-Player of the Year in High
School with Monta Ellis and he was the National Boys Basketball Player of the Year in 2005. He
repeated as National Boys Basketball PoTY in 2006, along with being Indiana Mr Basketball. The
Mcdonald's All-American team also put him on their roster, and he played in the All-American game.
So naturally he was enthusiastically recruited by Ohio State. The ability to play like a man among boys
at the high school level as a center is a key trait NBA teams look for when picking one high in the draft,
and Oden certainly accomplished this.
Presumably around this time, Oden filled out to the frame he is today. 7 feet 0 inches. 285
pounds. This as an eighteen year old freshman in college. You need to be a physical specimen to be
regarded as an elite prospect by NBA scouts, and particularly today with big men and true centers being
a rare commodity, Oden's size alone made him a valued prospect.
In college, Oden did not disappoint. After missing time due to wrist surgery, Oden participated
in 32 games for Ohio State. 28.6 major stats, 29.9 total stats, which doesn't completely include his elite
defense that won him defensive player of the year in the Big 10. First team all-big ten. The game
winning block against Tennessee in the Sweet 16. A 25-12-4 in the National Title game, even in a loss.
Clearly, we're painting the picture of an elite NBA prospect, highlighted by being named to the All-
American team.
There you have it. The expectations are set for Oden. He'll come into the NBA as a high lottery
pick, expected to be a traditional styled center with dominant defense, an elite paint presence, top-
quality rebounding, good scoring, and the ability to change the game like few players in the history of
the game. After all, that's what he did in college. So, even with the wrist injury and a knee injury
hanging over his head already, plus apparently having unbalanced leg lengths, The Blazers couldn't
pass up the chance to get a franchise center and selected Oden with the 1st overall pick.
So we understand Oden. He was a top-six pick in a NBA draft. As we might say, phase one
complete. He's been given immense expectations. Anything less would be a disappointment, and
anything significantly less would be...well...we'll get there.
7. Chapter Three – The First Three Seasons of the Oden era
How has Greg Oden been working out for the Trail Blazers? This is probably the most
important part of this whole thing, Oden's ability to produce for the Blazers and how it compares to
expectations. We'll start from the beginning, although there's sadly very little to find.
Perhaps more accurate would be to say there's nothing to find. Well, he signed a contract.
Salary $3,885,000.00 $4,176,000.00 $4,476,000.00 $4,476,000.00
Fair enough. The only thing is what he did to earn that initial 3.885 million. Or rather what he
didn't do.
Greg Oden Points Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals
Stats 0 0 0 0 0
That's his statline in 2007-2008. He contributed as much as I did to the Blazers that season, not
playing a single minute. Before the season even started, he went under the knife for micro-fracture
surgery on his knee and it was immediately obvious he wouldn't be playing that year.
The ramifications here are obvious. In the short-term, he loses all of his ability to contribute to
the team in his first year. The chance to leave an immediate impact on the league is gone. In the long-
term we now have to worry about his injury history, including a wrist and now a knee. There's an
extended history of NBA players who had careers cut short or limited by frequent injuries, and Oden's
had two significant ones before playing a second in the NBA.
That being established, let's go check his 2nd season, officially his rookie season.
Greg Oden Points Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals
Stats 8.9 7 0.5 1.1 0.4
Of course, that won't tell the whole story, so let's flesh it out.
Oden played in 61 games, starting 39 of them, with 21.5 minutes per game. He shot 56.4% from
the field and 63.7% from the stripe. 2.8 of his rebounds were on the offensive end. He turned it over 1.4
times per game. He picked up 3.9 fouls per game. And finally, Portland's overall defense was 94.1, 9th
in the league, compared to 96.3 the year before (8th).
His production given his minutes is reasonable, his shooting percentages are acceptable, his
turnovers are in line with what you'd expect, and he was a member of a solid defense that improved
from the previous season. The positives being said, there are clear problems.
His actual production isn't enough, his impact on the game for the Blazers was on par with what
you'd get from a role player. He sustained another major injury that kept him out for an extended period
of time. He lost some starts to Joel Przybilla, a career backup who's never averaged double digit points
8. or boards, indicative of his struggles. He showed no signs of being a capable passer (not that this was a
surprise). But the most damning thing here is his historic number of fouls.
To put this in perspective, Oden's 3.9 fouls in 21.5 minutes parlays out to 6.5 fouls per 36
minutes, 36 minutes being a fair amount of court time for a franchise player. There was a reason his
minutes were limited; he got into foul trouble in record time. And being able to stay on the court is
probably the most important thing. Oden failed to do this in three different ways. So his meager
production may be the fault of meager minutes, but it comes back to Oden.
As for the six game postseason romp...an average of 5 points, 4.3 boards and 1 block in 16
minutes, with 4.5 fouls as icing on the cake. When you're more likely to commit a foul then grab a
rebound, well...thinks like getting buried for Joel Przybilla are gonna happen.
And we come to...his 3rd season.
Greg Oden Points Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals
Stats 11.1 8.5 0.9 2.3 0.4
21 games, 21 starts. 23.9 minutes each. 60.5% from the field, 76.6% from the stripe. 3.0
offensive boards. 1.9 turnovers. 4 fouls per. 94.8 defensive ranking (3rd).
Alright, he improved, both in actual production and per minute production. His blocks in
particular skyrocketed. He didn't lose any starts to backups. His shooting percentages went up to strong
marks for big men. And the Blazers had a great defense.
Alas...his production still isn't any more than a very good role player. He still can't pass. But two
things really, really stick out here that expose his 09-10 campaign as a failure.
21 games. A quarter of the way into the season Oden blew his knee out and immediately cut his
year short. Now his fourth significant injury. What else can you say at this point? Maybe he's extremely
unlucky, but at some point it's fair to say that his body just isn't built for this.
And then...fouls. They went up right alongside his minutes more or less, clocking in at 6 fouls
per 36 minutes. Even Dwight Howard, regularly pestered by foul trouble in Orlando, can't come close
to such gaudy numbers.
It took Oden 3 seasons to play 1 season worth of games (82 games, 60 starts). That hypothetical
season would hold the averages of 22.1 minutes, 9.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 1.4 blocks, and
0.4 steals. Not to mention 3.9 fouls and 1.5 turnovers. Let's remember these numbers as we move
forward in our analysis.
Greg Oden Points Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals Minutes Fouls Turnovers
Stats 9.4 7.3 0.6 1.4 0.4 22.1 3.9 1.5
9. Chapter Four – Oden VS. The World
Clearly, Oden failed to live up to expectations from high school and college. Major stats of 17.3,
total stats of 19.1, a far cry from his college days. How else can we compare Oden, however? There's
more to it than simply saying he's not the guy we thought we were getting. How does Greg Oden stack
up with other big men taken #1 overall throughout NBA history?
Points Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals Minutes Fouls Turnovers MS TS
Oden 9.4 7.3 0.6 1.4 0.4 22.1 3.9 1.5 18.1 19.1
Bargnani 12.4 4.3 1 0.9 0.4 26.9 2.9 1.5 17.6 19
Bogut 11.9 8.5 2.6 1.1 0.7 32.4 3.2 2 21.5 24.8
Howard 15.1 11.6 1.5 1.7 0.9 35.4 3.1 2.8 28.4 30.8
Ming 16.4 8.5 1.3 1.9 0.4 30.8 3.3 2.3 26.8 28.5
Brown 7.8 5.6 1 0.7 0.6 22.9 1.9 1.4 14.1 15.7
Martin 14.6 7 2.3 1.4 1.2 34 3.8 2.3 23 26.5
Brand 19.4 10.6 2.5 1.8 0.9 38 3.2 2.6 31.8 35.2
Olowokandi 9.1 7.4 0.5 1.5 0.4 28.5 3.3 2.1 18 18.9
Duncan 22 12 2.8 2.4 0.8 39 3 3.2 36.4 40
Smith 16.2 7.7 1.2 1.1 0.9 34.2 3 2 25 27.1
Webber 19.1 9.1 4.2 1.8 1.4 34.9 3.3 2.9 30 35.6
O'Neal 27.3 12.8 2.3 2.9 0.9 38.2 3.6 3 43 46.2
First Three Season Averages
For Big Men Taken #1 Overall
30 Oden
Bargnani
Bogut
Howard
25 Ming
Brown
Martin
Brand
20 Olowokandi
Duncan
Smith
Webber
15
Amount
O'Neal
10
5
0
Points Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals
Stat
10. First Three Season Averages
For Big Men Taken #1 Overall
50 Oden
45 Bargnani
Bogut
40
How ard
35
Ming
30 Brow n
Amount
25 Martin
Brand
20
Olow okandi
15 Duncan
10 Smith
Webber
5
O'Neal
0
MS TS
Stat
In a nutshell, Shaq was out of the stratosphere, Duncan, Brand and Webber were very strong,
Howard, Ming and Joe Smith were solid, Bogut and Martin were decent, Oden, Bargnani and
Olowokandi were mediocre, and Brown was useless. Now, all of these big men play different styles
with different strengths and weaknesses (Bargnani comparisons are arguably useless since he's more of
a perimeter shooter). Regardless, in terms of per game averages, Oden is on the same tier as
Olowokandi and Bargnani, and just a bit above Brown.
In a way, we're being generous to Oden with these comparisons. Let's scrap the per game
averages and look at career totals over the first three years.
Points Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals Minutes Fouls Turnovers MS TS
Oden 773 602 50 117 33 1816 322 126 1492 1575
Bargnani 2745 959 233 187 89 5946 632 959 3891 4213
Bogut 2696 1919 589 238 163 7326 729 447 4853 5605
Howard 3716 2853 358 407 212 8719 754 699 6976 7546
Ming 4000 2079 320 463 87 7522 801 573 6542 6949
Brown 1656 1174 213 158 132 4827 408 293 2988 3333
Martin 3183 1530 508 304 266 7404 836 502 5017 5791
Brand 4570 2481 586 413 217 8929 756 620 7464 8267
Olowokandi 1885 1538 109 303 92 5899 691 431 3726 3927
Duncan 4531 2466 579 497 166 8042 611 667 7494 8239
Smith 3899 1867 298 271 221 8252 731 488 6037 6556
Webber 2774 1326 603 258 203 5056 483 422 4358 5164
O'Neal 6585 3095 561 709 209 9218 860 733 10389 11159
11. First Three Season Averages
For Big Men Taken #1 Overall
7000 Oden
Bargnani
Bogut
Howard
6000
Ming
Brown
Martin
5000 Brand
Olowokandi
Duncan
4000 Smith
Webber
Amount
O'Neal
3000
2000
1000
0
Points Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals
Stat
12000
Oden
10000
Bargnani
Bogut
8000 How ard
Ming
Brow n
6000
Martin
Brand
4000 Olow okandi
Duncan
2000 Smith
Webber
O'Neal
0
MS TS
To further hammer the point home, a couple of charts that display just how much time Oden missed.
12. Minutes
10000 Oden
Bargnani
9000
Bogut
8000
Howard
7000 Ming
6000 Brown
5000 Martin
Brand
4000
Olowokandi
3000
Duncan
2000 Smith
1000 Webber
0 O'Neal
Minutes
Games
300
Oden
250 Bargnani
Bogut
Howard
200
Ming
Brown
150 Martin
Brand
Olowokandi
100
Duncan
Smith
50 Webber
O'Neal
0
Gms
MPG
45 Oden
Bargnani
40
Bogut
35 How ard
30 Ming
Brow n
25
Martin
20 Brand
15 Olow okandi
Duncan
10
Smith
5 Webber
0 O'Neal
Minutes
13. In conclusion, what do these statistics and charts show? Oden's per game averages are poor
when compared to other 1st overall picks, his bulk statistics are comically abysmal, and he has shown
an inability to get on the court and stay on the court like no other recent #1 overall big. Could you
believe that, not only is Greg Oden on the Michael Olowokandi/Kwame Brown level in this discussion,
but Olowokandi/Brown contributed many times more what Oden did in their first three seasons to
Oden in his? In a way, those two guys, two of the biggest busts of all time, displayed far more than
Oden has in the same timespan.
So, let's take a quick step back. Since we can see the poor nature of Oden's stats in multiple
ways, and since we can see how badly they stack up with other 1st overall big men, we can safely say
that he has spent the first few years of his career failing to produce for his team and failing to live up to
college born expectations. Leaving us halfway there.
– Must be selected within the top-six picks of a NBA Draft (Check)
– Must fail to produce for the team that drafted them in the first few years of career (Check)
– Must fail to live up to expectations established in college/high school/europe (Check)
So yes, Oden was a high draft pick. Oden did not produce at a reasonable level for the team that
drafted him, notable on it's own but even more glaring when compared to previous top picked bigs.
Oden did not live up to the college expectations. But is Portland truly regretting the decision to take
Oden?
Let's start with the easiest comparisons, Oden against other bigs selected in the 2007 NBA
Draft. Again, it's important to say that some of these bigs play different styles than Oden, Horford is an
undersized center, Noah is a hustle guy, Davis is an undersized jump shooter...but they all play power
forward or center.
Points Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals Gms Min MPG MS TS
Oden 9.4 7.3 0.6 1.4 0.4 82 1816 22.146 18.1 19.1
Horford 12 9.6 2.1 1.1 0.8 229 7627 33.306 22.7 25.6
Jianlian 9.6 5.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 179 4723 26.385 16.2 17.7
Wright 6.2 3.3 0.4 0.8 0.4 77 1064 13.818 10.3 11.1
Noah 7.9 7.9 1.5 1.3 0.7 218 5397 24.757 17.1 19.3
Hawes 8.8 5.5 1.6 1 0.4 220 5094 23.155 15.3 17.3
Williams 4.3 3.5 0.3 1.2 0.3 126 1871 14.849 9 9.6
Smith 4 2.8 0.4 0.6 0.3 132 1765 13.371 7.4 8.1
Landry 12.2 5.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 191 4647 24.33 18 19.2
Davis 5.9 3.6 0.7 0.3 0.5 199 3510 17.638 9.8 11
Fesenko 2.4 1.9 0.3 0.5 0.2 79 634 8.025 4.8 5.3
Gasol 13.1 8.2 2 1.3 0.9 151 4990 33.046 22.6 25.5
Gray 3.8 3.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 149 1639 11 7.4 8.4
14. Big Men in the 2007 Draft
14 Oden
Horford
12 Jianlian
Wright
10
Noah
8 Haw es
Williams
6 Smith
Landry
4 Davis
Fesenko
2
Gasol
0 Gray
Points Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals
MS and TS
30
Oden
Horford
25
Jianlian
Wright
20 Noah
Hawes
Williams
15
Smith
Landry
10 Davis
Fesenko
Gasol
5 Gray
0
MS TS
The good news: Oden is clearly on the 2nd tier of big men, his per game averages compare
favorably to other bigs taken in his draft. Al Horford and Marc Gasol are clearly a tier above, but Gasol
was a very late pick that the Blazers could not reasonably have taken with a top pick. Oden is probably
a solid 3rd or 4th among these bigs, in the same tier as Jianlian, Noah and Landry.
Of course...when you're the number one overall pick and considered a once-in-a-generation
player, that isn't enough. The expectation was that Oden would be the best big man in the draft at the
very least, anything else leaves a lot to be desired. Horford (3rd overall pick) proving to be a superior
player does make you wonder, and there was nothing Portland could do about Gasol but the fact
remains he's being outplayed by a 2nd rounder.
Now for the really bad news.
15. 250
Oden
Horford
200
Jianlian
Wright
150 Noah
Haw es
Williams
100 Smith
Landry
Davis
50
Fesenko
Gasol
0 Gray
Gms
9000
8000 Oden
Horford
7000
Jianlian
6000 Wright
Noah
5000
Haw es
4000 Williams
Smith
3000
Landry
2000 Davis
Fesenko
1000
Gasol
0 Gray
Min
35
Oden
30
Horford
Jianlian
25
Wright
Noah
20
Haw es
Williams
15
Smith
10 Landry
Davis
5 Fesenko
Gasol
0 Gray
MPG
So he's on the very bottom tier when it comes to getting in games, the 2nd from the bottom tier in
minutes, and middle of the pack in MPG. Not what you're looking for from the 1st overall pick. So, all
things considered, there were at least 2 or 3 big men better than Oden that were there at Portland's pick.
And as should be fairly clear, a look at total career production will cast Oden in an even poorer light, so
16. depending on your point of view other players may be more desirable.
But the buck doesn't stop at big men. Who were some other players that became something in
the NBA?
Points Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals Gms Min MPG MS TS
Oden 9.4 7.3 0.6 1.4 0.4 82 1816 22.146 18.1 19.1
Durant 25.3 6.2 2.7 0.9 1.4 236 8892 37.678 34.2 36.5
Conley 10.9 2.8 4.7 0.1 1.1 215 6458 30.037 18.4 19.6
Green 14 5.8 1.7 0.6 1 240 8166 34.025 21.5 23.1
Brewer 9.2 3.5 1.9 0.3 1.2 176 4592 26.091 14.6 16.1
Young 12.4 4.8 1.1 0.2 1.2 216 6276 29.056 18.3 19.7
Wright 4 2.3 0.7 0.3 0.5 179 2283 12.754 7 7.8
Thornton 13.3 4.5 1.3 0.6 0.7 225 6891 30.627 19.1 20.4
Stuckey 13 3.3 4.3 0.1 1.1 209 6097 29.172 20.6 21.8
Young 9.1 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.4 231 4416 19.117 11.6 12.2
Belinelli 6.6 1.3 1.4 0.1 0.6 141 2243 15.908 9.3 10
Cook 8 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.4 179 3965 22.151 11.6 12.2
Dudley 6.6 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.9 223 4530 20.314 11.2 12.3
Chandler 13.4 5.1 1.9 0.8 0.7 182 5740 31.538 20.4 21.9
Fernandez 9.4 2.7 2 0.2 0.9 140 3434 24.529 14.1 15.2
Brooks 13 2 3.6 0.1 0.6 213 5525 25.939 18.6 19.3
Afflalo 5.9 2.3 1 0.2 0.5 231 4434 19.195 9.2 9.9
Sessions 10 3 4.7 0.1 0.9 178 4355 24.466 17.7 18.7
40
35
30
Oden Young
Durant Belinelli
25
Conley Cook
Green Dudley
20
Brew er Chandler
15 Young Fernandez
Wright Brooks
10 Thornton Afflalo
Stuckey Sessions
5
0
MS TS
I'll leave the statistical comparison to this since a comparison across positions for specific stats
is largely worthless. What we can measure is overall impact on the game. Oden slaps up 19.1 'stats' per
game on average, which is fairly close to the middle of this list of players. Some players clearly
outclass him, others arguably do. Disappointments like Conley, Thornton and Stuckey actually have
him beat. A games played, minutes played and MPG comparison will have expectedly poor results for
Oden, as should be already obvious by the chart. Oden has far fewer games, minutes, and a low-end
MPG on this, a full list of impact players taken in the 2007 draft. It just doesn't cut it.
17. Chapter Five – Healing the Wound
So yes, there's a fairly long list of players who would have been better picks for Portland at #1
overall. Not to mention the move of simply trading down. We're getting closer. Oden was a top draft
pick who failed to produce or live up to his college expectations, and there were many superior players
taken later in the 2007 draft. How did the Blazers deal with this unfortunate reality?
First, it's fair to say the team is doing okay. They have their franchise guard and a worthy back-
court teammate. They have a reasonably solid power forward and all sorts of depth at all position with
role players of varying success. They've won their games and made the playoffs. Just no thanks to
Oden, and that's the whole problem.
When Oden came to the Blazers, the incumbent center and probable backup was Joel Przybilla,
a quality backup big but not too much else. So Oden's escapades so far in his career have forced
Przybilla to play more minutes. This is a guy who gave them around 5 points and 8 and a half boards to
go with a bit more than a block a game. You can live with that...but you don't want to. Other players
who got extra time at center because of Oden's shortcomings include Channing Frye (never worked out
in Portland), washed up Raef LaFrentz, undersized Juwan Howard and Jeff Pendergraph, and even
Aldridge has had to bump over to the 5. None of these are desirable options, all largely avoidable if
Oden hadn't disappointed to the degree that he had.
This season, the Blazers had enough of this and made a swap for Marcus Camby. It was a
quality trade, Portland gave up little, but getting a player such as Camby goes against what Portland has
been trying to do recently (use their draft picks, build up a core of young players in europe, maintain
cap freedom). Desparation to obtain a quality center forced Portland to make such a move, and it all
comes back to Oden.
And now, the Blazers have given Camby a 2 year, 20-25 million dollar deal for next season and
the one after. Awful lot of money for an old man who could get over the hill at any time, right?
Especially for a team that spent a #1 on a franchise center and have a backup under contract, no? You
see where this is going? Substandard center play, trades that go against normal team philosphy, large
contracts for aging big men, everything points at Greg Oden. The Blazers needed him to work out, and
he hasn't. And it's cost them in multiple ways.
There's little else to say. Portland has paid dearly for their mistake already, and further debts are
in line. This established...is Oden officially a bust?
18. Chapter Six – The Portland Redemption?
Well, not officially. There's one last step to fulfill. I'll grant that the final step is for posterity. By
leaving the team, there's nothing that player can do to salvage his career. Anything he does for another
team means nothing to the team that drafted him. Once he moves on, the coffin is sealed and buried.
He's a bust, and it's done. So the final step is a sort of a confirmation of what is already the case,
proving that the player is a bust and there's no going back. However, I would say a player can be a bust
without having left yet, so long as it is a foregone conclusion the player will leave eventually with little
to no compensation.
And that's exactly where we're going. Oden got paid 5.3+ mil to play mediocre basketball for 21
games. He's getting 6.8 mil next year and is a RFA up to about 8.8 mil for 11/12. With everything
you've read above, would you honestly cough up 9 mil a year to a guy who produces average numbers
when healthy and is rarely healthy? And that's optimistic, what if he's looking for a long term deal or 8
figures? You think a team won't bite on his crazy potential and give him a juicy contract?
I suppose there are alternatives, but they're just as bad or worse. Maybe the Blazers are crazy
enough to give Oden that big deal. Now they've sunk significant money into an injury-crippled player
who probably can't do what he was expected to be able to do originally. That's probably a lot worse.
Perhaps Oden decides to take a small deal and become officially a role player, just giving them
15-20 minutes a game, occasionally producing adequately when healthy, and the Blazers willing to
accept whatever he can give and nothing more. Of course, all the above points would still stand, and all
this means is Oden would continue to be a massive Portland disappointment, except the fans and team
would now expect and accept it. In this situation I'd just regard Oden as a bust who decided to be good
natured about it.
There's really only one way out of this. Oden has to come back with a vengeance next season,
or the following, and show he can be everything hoped coming out of college. 20 points and 10
rebounds. 2-3 blocks a night. Lock-down defense in the paint. It has to be consistent, it has to be big,
and it has to happen soon. Maybe there can be late redemption, although much damage has already
been done.
Given the long list of injuries, established history regarding big men suffering such damages,
and everything we know about Oden, I don't think it has any real chance of happening. But, if it does,
there can be redemption yet for Oden and his Blazers. He can worm his way out of the bust label and
become the franchise center Portland dreamed about.
But it's all an unrealistic pipe dream. So in conclusion, I come to the claim that everything in
this article has lead me to. Oden was a #1 pick. Oden could not fulfill the hopes instigated by his
college career, generic elite NBA expectations, and other #1 pick big men. Oden could not produce on
the level of other players selected in his own draft class. Oden's failures caused the Blazers to lose
capabilities on the court (leading to losing games) and give up money/players/flexibility for
replacements at center. We're just waiting for him to look to reverse his fortunes elsewhere in the NBA,
and then, he will be etched in stone as an all-time NBA bust. Until then, we'll have to settle for simply
knowing that he's effectively already one, and all that remains is for history to eternally remember him
as so.
