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Aggregate+Expenditure+and+Equilibrium+Output.ppt
1.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster MACROECONOMIC CONCERNS 1. INFLATION Overall increase in the price level. Hyperinflation – period of very rapid increases in the overall price level. Who gains from inflation? Who loses? What costs does inflation impose on society? How severe are they? What causes inflation? What is the best way to stop it?
2.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 2. OUTPUT GROWTH: Short and Long Run MACROECONOMIC CONCERNS Economies don’t grow in an even rates at all time. BUSINESS CYCLE Aggregate Output – the total quantity of goods and services produced in an economy in a given period. Recessions – periods during which aggregate output declines (2 successive quarters). Depression – prolonged and deep recession.
3.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster MACROECONOMIC CONCERNS 3. UNEMPLOYMENT The percentage of labor forced that is unemployed A key indicator in the health of an economy! Related to aggregate output Why do labor markets not clear when other markets do? (Major economic concern)
4.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster On way the government affects the economy is through its tax and expenditures decisions (FISCAL POLICY) The magnitude of TAXES and EXPENDITURES have major effects in the economy. Keynes believed that : Government should cut taxes and / or raise spending to get the economy out of a slump. (EXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY) Government should raise taxes and/or cut spending to bring the economy out of inflation. (CONTRACTIONARY FISCAL POLICY)
5.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster MONETARY POLICY Through the central bank reserve, the government can determine the quantity of money in the economy. Economists agree that the amount of money in circulation affects the: Overall price level Interest rates Exchange rates Unemployment rate Level of output
6.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster GROWTH POLICIES Economists believe that the focus of the economy should be to stimulate aggregate supply.
7.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster
8.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The level of GDP, the overall price level, and the level of employment—three chief concerns of macroeconomists— are influenced by events in three broadly defined “markets”: Goods-and-services market Financial (money) market Labor market
9.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster
10.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output aggregate output The total quantity of goods and services produced (or supplied) in an economy in a given period. aggregate income The total income received by all factors of production in a given period. In any given period, there is an exact equality between aggregate output (production) and aggregate income. You should be reminded of this fact whenever you encounter the combined term aggregate output (income) (Y). aggregate output (income) (Y) A combined term used to remind you of the exact equality between aggregate output and aggregate income.
11.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster Income, consumption and Saving (Y, C and S) (Simple and closed economy)
12.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster
13.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster Two types of Spending Behavior - Spending by Households (consumption) - Spending by Firms (Investment) How do households decide how much to consume? (aggregate consumption depends on the following: a. Household Income b. Household wealth c. Interest Rates d. Household expectations about the future
14.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Keynesian Theory of Consumption consumption function The relationship between consumption and income. A Consumption Function for a Household A consumption function for an individual household shows the level of consumption at each level of household income. 1. Positive slope 2. The intercept of the curve is above zero
15.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Keynesian Theory of Consumption With a straight line consumption curve, we can use the following equation to describe the curve: C = a + bY An Aggregate Consumption Function The aggregate consumption function shows the level of aggregate consumption at each level of aggregate income. The upward slope indicates that higher levels of income lead to higher levels of consumption spending.
16.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster Suppose that the slope is .75, an increase in income of P100 would increase consumption by b∆Y = .75 x 100 = Ᵽ75
17.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Keynesian Theory of Consumption marginal propensity to consume (MPC) That fraction of a change in income that is consumed or spent. marginal propensity to consume slope of consumption function C Y aggregate saving (S) The part of aggregate income that is not consumed. S ≡ Y – C
18.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Keynesian Theory of Consumption identity Something that is always true. marginal propensity to save (MPS) That fraction of a change in income that is saved. MPC + MPS ≡ 1 Because the MPC and the MPS are important concepts, it may help to review their definitions. The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is the fraction of an increase in income that is consumed (or the fraction of a decrease in income that comes out of consumption). The marginal propensity to save (MPS) is the fraction of an increase in income that is saved (or the fraction of a decrease in income that comes out of saving).
19.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Keynesian Theory of Consumption The Aggregate Consumption Function Derived from the Equation C = 100 + .75Y In this simple consumption function, consumption is 100 at an income of zero. As income rises, so does consumption. For every 100 increase in income, consumption rises by 75. The slope of the line is .75. AGGREGATE INCOME, Y (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION, C (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 0 100 80 160 100 175 200 250 400 400 600 550 800 700 1,000 850
20.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Keynesian Theory of Consumption Deriving the Saving Function from the Consumption Function Because S ≡ Y – C, it is easy to derive the saving function from the consumption function. A 45° line drawn from the origin can be used as a convenient tool to compare consumption and income graphically. At Y = 200, consumption is 250. The 45° line shows us that consumption is larger than income by 50. Thus, S ≡ Y – C = -50. At Y = 800, consumption is less than income by 100. Thus, S = 100 when Y = 800. Y - C = S AGGREGATE INCOME (Billions of Dollars) AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION (Billions of Dollars) AGGREGATE SAVING (Billions of Dollars) 0 100 -100 80 160 -80 100 175 -75 200 250 -50 400 400 0 600 550 50 800 700 100 1,000 850 150
21.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Keynesian Theory of Consumption Other Determinants of Consumption The assumption that consumption depends only on income is obviously a simplification. In practice, the decisions of households on how much to consume in a given period are also affected by their wealth, by the interest rate, and by their expectations of the future. Households with higher wealth are likely to spend more, other things being equal, than households with less wealth.
22.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster Planned Investment (I) The Planned Investment Function For the time being, we will assume that planned investment is fixed. It does not change when income changes, so its graph is a horizontal line.
23.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster Planned Investment (I) planned investment (I) Those additions to capital stock and inventory that are planned by firms. actual investment The actual amount of investment that takes place; it includes items such as unplanned changes in inventories(UIC). INPUT INFO: Assume that I is fixed at I = Ᵽ25B and does not vary with income (So graphically I is a horizontal line)
24.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Determination of Equilibrium Output (Income) equilibrium Occurs when there is no tendency for change. In the macroeconomic goods market, equilibrium occurs when planned aggregate expenditure is equal to aggregate output. planned aggregate expenditure (AE) The total amount the economy plans to spend in a given period. Equal to consumption plus planned investment: AE ≡ C + I. Y > C + I aggregate output > planned aggregate expenditure C + I > Y planned aggregate expenditure > aggregate output Equilibrium: Y = AE or Y = C + I Non-Equilibrium Conditions
25.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Determination of Equilibrium Output (Income) Deriving the Planned Aggregate Expenditure Schedule and Finding Equilibrium The Figures in Column 2 Are Based on the Equation C = 100 + .75Y. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Aggregate Output (Income) (Y) Aggregate Consumption (C) Planned Investment (I) Planned Aggregate Expenditure (AE) C + I Unplanne d Inventory Change Y - (C + I) Equilibrium? (Y = AE?) 100 175 25 200 - 100 No 200 250 25 275 - 75 No 400 400 25 425 - 25 No 500 475 25 500 0 Yes 600 550 25 575 + 25 No 800 700 25 725 + 75 No 1,000 850 25 875 + 125 No Equilibrium in the goods market is achieved only when aggregate output (Y) And planned aggregate expenditure (C + I) are equal, or when actual and planned investment are equal
26.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Determination of Equilibrium Output (Income) Equilibrium Aggregate Output Equilibrium occurs when planned aggregate expenditure and aggregate output are equal. Planned aggregate expenditure is the sum of consumption spending and planned investment spending.
27.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster Equilibrium computation
28.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Determination of Equilibrium Output (Income) The Saving/Investment Approach to Equilibrium Because aggregate income must either be saved or spent, by definition, Y ≡ C + S, which is an identity. The equilibrium condition is Y = C + I, but this is not an identity because it does not hold when we are out of equilibrium. By substituting C + S for Y in the equilibrium condition, we can write: C + S = C + I Because we can subtract C from both sides of this equation, we are left with: S = I Thus, only when planned investment equals saving will there be equilibrium.
29.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Determination of Equilibrium Output (Income) The Saving/Investment Approach to Equilibrium Aggregate output is equal to planned aggregate expenditure only when saving equals planned investment (S = I). Saving and planned investment are equal at Y = 500. The S = I Approach to Equilibrium
30.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Determination of Equilibrium Output (Income) Adjustment to Equilibrium The adjustment process will continue as long as output (income) is below planned aggregate expenditure. If firms react to unplanned inventory reductions by increasing output, an economy with planned spending greater than output will adjust to equilibrium, with Y higher than before. If planned spending is less than output, there will be unplanned increases in inventories. In this case, firms will respond by reducing output. As output falls, income falls, consumption falls, and so on, until equilibrium is restored, with Y lower than before.
31.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Multiplier multiplier The ratio of the change in the equilibrium level of output to a change in some exogenous variable. exogenous variable A variable that is assumed not to depend on the state of the economy—that is, it does not change when the economy changes.
32.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Multiplier The Multiplier as Seen in the Planned Aggregate Expenditure Diagram At point A, the economy is in equilibrium at Y = 500. When I increases by 25, planned aggregate expenditure is initially greater than aggregate output. As output rises in response, additional consumption is generated, pushing equilibrium output up by a multiple of the initial increase in I. The new equilibrium is found at point B, where Y = 600. Equilibrium output has increased by 100 (600 - 500), or four times the amount of the increase in planned investment.
33.
CHAPTER 23 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output © 2009 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster The Multiplier The Multiplier Equation MPS S Y MPS I Y Because S must be equal to I for equilibrium to be restored, we can substitute I for S and solve: therefore, Y I MPS 1 multiplier MPS 1 , or multiplier MPC - 1 1 The marginal propensity to save may be expressed as: