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Monte Carlo Simulations

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[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Basic Definition ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
Schema of the Monte Carlo Method; ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Three Point Estimates ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Three Point Estimates cont. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Best-Case estimate + 4X the Most Likely estimate + the Worst Case estimate / 6 = Estimate (E).
Caveats ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Essential Construct a.k.a. the “ Three Point Estimate ” (“ TIME ” on EACH project task/activity ) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Execute the Monte Carlo Method (Time) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Overlay Plot of MCS http://www.isixsigma.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=925:using-monte-carlo-simulation-as-process-control-aid&Itemid=218
MCS (a MATLAB plot)
Tools/Reference ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://physics.gac.edu/~huber/envision/instruct/montecar.htm

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Monte Carlo Simulations

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  • 12. Overlay Plot of MCS http://www.isixsigma.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=925:using-monte-carlo-simulation-as-process-control-aid&Itemid=218
  • 13. MCS (a MATLAB plot)
  • 14.