4. Regular and increasingly large disruptions will impact the social, political and
economic foundations of the internet, all underpinned by faster connectivity
and new users.
THEME 1
DISRUPTION DIVIDES AND CONQUERS
5. Gigabit connectivity will offer new possibilities for everyone including criminals.
Impact: Increased exposure to attacks and disruption to critical business
systems.
Threat 1.1
Supercharged connectivity overwhelms defences
6. Organised crime will migrate online, developing complex internal hierarchies
and commoditising their activities at a global level. Impact: Law enforcement
and infosec struggle to keep pace, resulting in business disruption and increased
security budgets.
Threat 1.2
Crime syndicates take a quantum leap
7. Civil unrest will emerge in response to relentless technology advances that
increase socio-economic inequality. Impact: Disruption, including negative
publicity and brand damage, to organisations caught in the unrest.
Threat 1.3
Tech rejectionists cause chaos
8. Society is increasingly dependent on digital systems that are highly complex and
often based on trust. This will prove to be an unreliable method of operating
systems that are integral to the global economy.
THEME 2
COMPLEXITY CONCEALS FRAGILITY
9. Following several large cascading failures (e.g. to energy grid or GPS) hidden
dependencies on digitally connected critical infrastructure will become
transparent. Impact: Delayed production and deliveries. Reputational damage
and loss of customers.
Threat 2.1
Dependence on critical infrastructure becomes dangerous
10. Targeted exploitation of widely distributed and homogenous technologies will
occur frequently and have implications for the normal functioning of the
Internet and wider global economy. Impact: Loss of business-critical
information. Reduced or unavailable customer service.
Threat 2.2
Systemic vulnerabilities are weaponised
11. Digital connectivity inside and between organisations grows, exposing legacy
technology to attackers and a greater likelihood of accidents. Impact: Inability to
maintain consistent service delivery. Steep costs for maintenance expertise and
technology transformation programmes.
Threat 2.3
Legacy technology crumbles
12. Disruption to cyber-physical systems (i.e. systems that have direct physical
impact) will lead to verifiable human deaths. Impact: Loss of life. Loss of
customer trust. Legal liabilities increase dramatically. Safety regulations bring
new costs.
Threat 2.4
Death from disruption to digital systems
13. Large information providers will continue to expand into emerging markets,
solidifying their global ambitions and frustrating government attempts at
regulation. Companies will become complacent about dealing with data
breaches, and poorly conceived regulations will be enforced selectively.
THEME 3
COMPLACENCY BITES BACK
14. Major information companies such as Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple will
grow their global market share, raising concerns about competition and anti-
trust law. Impact: Lack of commercial competition. Regulators struggle to keep
pace, neither enforcing fair competition nor delivering optimal prices to
consumers.
Threat 3.1
Global consolidation endangers competition and security
15. The number of data breaches will grow along with the volume of compromised
records, becoming far more expensive for organisations of all sizes. Impact:
Customer impact and delay as liabilities are unravelled in court. Reputational
damage. Unforeseen costs from expensive and lengthy remediation.
Threat 3.2
Impact of data breaches increases dramatically
16. 1. Disruption divides and conquers
1.1. Supercharged connectivity overwhelms defences
1.2. Crime syndicates take a quantum leap
1.3. Tech rejectionists cause chaos
2. Complexity conceals fragility
2.1. Dependence on critical infrastructure becomes dangerous
2.2. Systemic vulnerabilities are weaponised
2.3. Legacy technology crumbles
2.4. Death from disruption to digital services
3. Complacency bites back
3.1. Global consolidation endangers competition and security
3.2. Impact of data breaches increases dramatically
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