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1 
The Base Stock Model
2 
Assumptions 
 Demand occurs continuously over time 
 Times between consecutive orders are stochastic but 
independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) 
 Inventory is reviewed continuously 
 Supply leadtime is a fixed constant L 
 There is no fixed cost associated with placing an order 
 Orders that cannot be fulfilled immediately from on-hand 
inventory are backordered
3 
The Base-Stock Policy 
 Start with an initial amount of inventory R. Each time a new 
demand arrives, place a replenishment order with the 
supplier. 
 An order placed with the supplier is delivered L units of time 
after it is placed. 
 Because demand is stochastic, we can have multiple orders 
(inventory on-order) that have been placed but not delivered 
yet.
4 
The Base-Stock Policy 
 The amount of demand that arrives during the replenishment 
leadtime L is called the leadtime demand. 
 Under a base-stock policy, leadtime demand and inventory 
on order are the same. 
 When leadtime demand (inventory on-order) exceeds R, we 
have backorders.
5 
Notation 
I: inventory level, a random variable 
B: number of backorders, a random variable 
X: Leadtime demand (inventory on-order), a random variable 
IP: inventory position 
E[I]: Expected inventory level 
E[B]: Expected backorder level 
E[X]: Expected leadtime demand 
E[D]: average demand per unit time (demand rate)
6 
Inventory Balance Equation 
 Inventory position = on-hand inventory + inventory on-order 
– backorder level
7 
Inventory Balance Equation 
 Inventory position = on-hand inventory + inventory on-order 
– backorder level 
 Under a base-stock policy with base-stock level R, inventory 
position is always kept at R (Inventory position = R ) 
IP = I+X - B = R 
E[I] + E[X] – E[B] = R
8 
Leadtime Demand 
 Under a base-stock policy, the leadtime demand X is 
independent of R and depends only on L and D with 
E[X]= E[D]L (the textbook refers to this quantity as q). 
 The distribution of X depends on the distribution of D.
9 
I = max[0, I – B]= [I – B]+ 
B=max[0, B-I] = [ B - I]+ 
Since R = I + X – B, we also have 
I – B = R – X 
I = [R – X]+ 
B =[X – R]+
10 
 E[I] = R – E[X] + E[B] = R – E[X] + E[(X – R)+] 
 E[B] = E[I] + E[X] – R = E[(R – X)+] + E[X] – R 
 Pr(stocking out) = Pr(X ³ R) 
 Pr(not stocking out) = Pr(X £ R-1) 
 Fill rate = E(D) Pr(X £ R-1)/E(D) = Pr(X £ R-1)
11 
Objective 
Choose a value for R that minimizes the sum of expected 
inventory holding cost and expected backorder cost, 
Y(R)= hE[I] + bE[B], where h is the unit holding cost 
per unit time and b is the backorder cost per unit per 
unit time.
12 
The Cost Function 
Y R hE I bE B 
= + 
= - + + 
= - + + 
= - + + - 
= - + + å - = 
( ) [ ] [ ] 
h R E X E B bE B 
h R E X h b E B 
h R E D L h b E X R 
h R E D L h b x R X x 
( [ ] [ ]) [ ] 
( [ ]) ( ) [ ] 
( [ ] ) ( ) ([ ] - 
) 
( [ ] ) ( ) ¥ 
( )Pr( ) x = 
R
13 
The Optimal Base-Stock Level 
The optimal value of R is the smallest integer that satisfies 
Y (R + 1) - Y (R) ³ 0.
Y R + Y R = h R + - E D L + h + b x - R - X = 
x 
( 1) - ( ) 1 [ ] ( ) ( 1)Pr( ) 
14 
( ) 
( ) 
h R E D L h b x R X x 
h h b x R x R X x 
h h b X x 
h h b X R 
h h b X R 
b h b X R 
- - - + - = 
= + + - - - - = 
= - + = 
= - + ³ + 
= - + - £ 
= - + + £ 
[ ] ( ) ( )Pr( ) 
( ) 
( ) ( 1) ( ) Pr( ) 
( ) Pr( ) 
( )Pr( 1) 
( ) ( 1 Pr( ) 
) 
( )Pr( ) 
1 
1 
1 
x R 
x R 
x R 
x R 
¥ 
= + 
¥ 
= 
¥ 
= + 
¥ 
= + 
å 
å 
å 
å
15 
Y R + Y R 
³ 
b h b X R 
( 1) - ( ) 0 
( )Pr( ) 0 
Pr( ) 
Û - + + £ ³ 
X R b 
b h 
Û £ ³ 
+ 
Choosing the smallest integer R that satisfies Y(R+1) – Y(R) ³ 0 
is equivalent to choosing the smallest integer R that satisfies 
Pr(X R) b 
b h 
£ ³ 
+
X x l L x e l L E X l L Var X l 
L 
16 
Example 1 
 Demand arrives one unit at a time according to a Poisson 
process with mean l. If D(t) denotes the amount of demand 
that arrives in the interval of time of length t, then 
D t x l t x e -l 
t x 
Pr( ( ) = ) = ( ) , ³ 
0. 
! 
x 
 Leadtime demand, X, can be shown in this case to also have 
the Poisson distribution with 
Pr( ) ( ) , [ ] , and ( ) . 
! 
x 
- 
= = = =
 If X can be approximated by a normal distribution, then: 
17 
The Normal Approximation 
R E D L z Var X 
Y R h b Var X f z 
* ( ) ( ) 
/( ) 
( *) ( ) ( ) ( ) 
/( ) 
b b h 
b b h 
+ 
+ 
= + 
= + 
 In the case where X has the Poisson distribution with 
mean lL 
* 
/( ) 
( *) ( ) ( ) 
/( ) 
b b h 
b b h 
R l L z l 
L 
+ 
Y R h b l L f 
z 
+ 
= + 
= +
If X has the geometric distribution with parameter r , 0 £ r £ 1 
18 
Example 2 
x 
= = - 
r r 
r 
( ) (1 ). 
1 
[ ] 
1 
Pr( ) 
Pr( ) 1 
x 
x 
P X x 
E X 
X x 
X x 
r 
r 
r + 
= 
- 
³ = 
£ = -
The optimal base-stock level is the smallest integer R* that 
satisfies 
19 
Example 2 (Continued…) 
* 
* 
Pr( ) 
1 * 
* 
ln[ ] 
1 1 
ln[ ] 
ln[ ] 
ln[ ] 
R 
X R b 
b h 
b 
b R b h 
b h 
b 
R b h 
r 
r 
r 
+ 
£ ³ 
+ 
Þ - ³ Þ ³ + - 
+ 
ê ú 
ê + ú Þ = ê ú 
ê ú 
ë û
20 
Computing Expected Backorders 
 It is sometimes easier to first compute (for a given R), 
E I =åx= R -x X = x 
0 [ ] ( )Pr( ) R 
and then obtain E[B]=E[I] + E[X] – R. 
 For the case where leadtime demand has the Poisson 
distribution (with mean q = E(D)L), the following 
relationship (for a fixed R) applies 
E[B]= qPr(X=R)+(q-R)[1-Pr(X£ R)]

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Lecture 7 2011

  • 1. 1 The Base Stock Model
  • 2. 2 Assumptions  Demand occurs continuously over time  Times between consecutive orders are stochastic but independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.)  Inventory is reviewed continuously  Supply leadtime is a fixed constant L  There is no fixed cost associated with placing an order  Orders that cannot be fulfilled immediately from on-hand inventory are backordered
  • 3. 3 The Base-Stock Policy  Start with an initial amount of inventory R. Each time a new demand arrives, place a replenishment order with the supplier.  An order placed with the supplier is delivered L units of time after it is placed.  Because demand is stochastic, we can have multiple orders (inventory on-order) that have been placed but not delivered yet.
  • 4. 4 The Base-Stock Policy  The amount of demand that arrives during the replenishment leadtime L is called the leadtime demand.  Under a base-stock policy, leadtime demand and inventory on order are the same.  When leadtime demand (inventory on-order) exceeds R, we have backorders.
  • 5. 5 Notation I: inventory level, a random variable B: number of backorders, a random variable X: Leadtime demand (inventory on-order), a random variable IP: inventory position E[I]: Expected inventory level E[B]: Expected backorder level E[X]: Expected leadtime demand E[D]: average demand per unit time (demand rate)
  • 6. 6 Inventory Balance Equation  Inventory position = on-hand inventory + inventory on-order – backorder level
  • 7. 7 Inventory Balance Equation  Inventory position = on-hand inventory + inventory on-order – backorder level  Under a base-stock policy with base-stock level R, inventory position is always kept at R (Inventory position = R ) IP = I+X - B = R E[I] + E[X] – E[B] = R
  • 8. 8 Leadtime Demand  Under a base-stock policy, the leadtime demand X is independent of R and depends only on L and D with E[X]= E[D]L (the textbook refers to this quantity as q).  The distribution of X depends on the distribution of D.
  • 9. 9 I = max[0, I – B]= [I – B]+ B=max[0, B-I] = [ B - I]+ Since R = I + X – B, we also have I – B = R – X I = [R – X]+ B =[X – R]+
  • 10. 10  E[I] = R – E[X] + E[B] = R – E[X] + E[(X – R)+]  E[B] = E[I] + E[X] – R = E[(R – X)+] + E[X] – R  Pr(stocking out) = Pr(X ³ R)  Pr(not stocking out) = Pr(X £ R-1)  Fill rate = E(D) Pr(X £ R-1)/E(D) = Pr(X £ R-1)
  • 11. 11 Objective Choose a value for R that minimizes the sum of expected inventory holding cost and expected backorder cost, Y(R)= hE[I] + bE[B], where h is the unit holding cost per unit time and b is the backorder cost per unit per unit time.
  • 12. 12 The Cost Function Y R hE I bE B = + = - + + = - + + = - + + - = - + + å - = ( ) [ ] [ ] h R E X E B bE B h R E X h b E B h R E D L h b E X R h R E D L h b x R X x ( [ ] [ ]) [ ] ( [ ]) ( ) [ ] ( [ ] ) ( ) ([ ] - ) ( [ ] ) ( ) ¥ ( )Pr( ) x = R
  • 13. 13 The Optimal Base-Stock Level The optimal value of R is the smallest integer that satisfies Y (R + 1) - Y (R) ³ 0.
  • 14. Y R + Y R = h R + - E D L + h + b x - R - X = x ( 1) - ( ) 1 [ ] ( ) ( 1)Pr( ) 14 ( ) ( ) h R E D L h b x R X x h h b x R x R X x h h b X x h h b X R h h b X R b h b X R - - - + - = = + + - - - - = = - + = = - + ³ + = - + - £ = - + + £ [ ] ( ) ( )Pr( ) ( ) ( ) ( 1) ( ) Pr( ) ( ) Pr( ) ( )Pr( 1) ( ) ( 1 Pr( ) ) ( )Pr( ) 1 1 1 x R x R x R x R ¥ = + ¥ = ¥ = + ¥ = + å å å å
  • 15. 15 Y R + Y R ³ b h b X R ( 1) - ( ) 0 ( )Pr( ) 0 Pr( ) Û - + + £ ³ X R b b h Û £ ³ + Choosing the smallest integer R that satisfies Y(R+1) – Y(R) ³ 0 is equivalent to choosing the smallest integer R that satisfies Pr(X R) b b h £ ³ +
  • 16. X x l L x e l L E X l L Var X l L 16 Example 1  Demand arrives one unit at a time according to a Poisson process with mean l. If D(t) denotes the amount of demand that arrives in the interval of time of length t, then D t x l t x e -l t x Pr( ( ) = ) = ( ) , ³ 0. ! x  Leadtime demand, X, can be shown in this case to also have the Poisson distribution with Pr( ) ( ) , [ ] , and ( ) . ! x - = = = =
  • 17.  If X can be approximated by a normal distribution, then: 17 The Normal Approximation R E D L z Var X Y R h b Var X f z * ( ) ( ) /( ) ( *) ( ) ( ) ( ) /( ) b b h b b h + + = + = +  In the case where X has the Poisson distribution with mean lL * /( ) ( *) ( ) ( ) /( ) b b h b b h R l L z l L + Y R h b l L f z + = + = +
  • 18. If X has the geometric distribution with parameter r , 0 £ r £ 1 18 Example 2 x = = - r r r ( ) (1 ). 1 [ ] 1 Pr( ) Pr( ) 1 x x P X x E X X x X x r r r + = - ³ = £ = -
  • 19. The optimal base-stock level is the smallest integer R* that satisfies 19 Example 2 (Continued…) * * Pr( ) 1 * * ln[ ] 1 1 ln[ ] ln[ ] ln[ ] R X R b b h b b R b h b h b R b h r r r + £ ³ + Þ - ³ Þ ³ + - + ê ú ê + ú Þ = ê ú ê ú ë û
  • 20. 20 Computing Expected Backorders  It is sometimes easier to first compute (for a given R), E I =åx= R -x X = x 0 [ ] ( )Pr( ) R and then obtain E[B]=E[I] + E[X] – R.  For the case where leadtime demand has the Poisson distribution (with mean q = E(D)L), the following relationship (for a fixed R) applies E[B]= qPr(X=R)+(q-R)[1-Pr(X£ R)]