D2,1.philippines country practices


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D2,1.philippines country practices

  1. 1. Measuring Gross Regional Domestic Product: The Philippine Experience by MARIA FE M. TALENTO Division Head Production Accounts Division National Statistical Coordination Board International Workshop Regional Products and Income Accounts Tiantan Hotel, Beijing China 15 -17 March, 2010
  2. 2. <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Compilation Process: Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of the Philippines </li></ul><ul><li>Sources of Data </li></ul><ul><li>Estimation Methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Development Efforts </li></ul><ul><li>Issues on the GRDP </li></ul><ul><li>Current Improvements </li></ul><ul><li>Next Steps </li></ul>OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
  3. 3. I. INTRODUCTION <ul><li>The Philippine Statistical System (PSS) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A highly decentralized statistical system: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- statistics are produced by a number of major producers of primary data and by smaller units in all levels of government which generates statistics as a by-product of their administrative or regulatory functions </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. I. INTRODUCTION <ul><li>The Current Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>follows the 1968 UNSNA but to a limited extent already incorporates the recommendations of the 1993 SNA. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>a Designated Statistics under Executive Order No. 352 and is currently being developed and maintained by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB ) </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. I. INTRODUCTION <ul><li>Milestones in GRDP estimation: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1974 – first compilation of the GRDP for the period 1971-1974 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1978 – GRDP compilation was resumed and institutionalized </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data Series of GRDP: 1978-2008 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Coverage of GRDP: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>17 regions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Date of Release of GRDP: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Every first Thursday of August of the current year </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. II. COMPILATION PROCESS <ul><li>The current GRDP is compiled by industrial origin: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Agriculture </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Forestry </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mining and Quarrying </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Construction </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Electricity and Water </li></ul></ul></ul>
  7. 7. II. COMPILATION PROCESS <ul><li>The current GRDP is compiled by industrial origin: </li></ul><ul><li>3. Services </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Wholesale and Retail Trade </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Transportation, Communication and Storage (TCS) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Finance </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Ownership of Dwellings and Real Estate (ODRE) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Private Services </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Government Services </li></ul></ul></ul>
  8. 8. II. COMPILATION PROCESS <ul><li>GRDP Measurement : uses the production approach: </li></ul><ul><li>- Unduplicated sum of all the goods and services produced in the regional economy (by resident producers), valued at producers’ </li></ul><ul><li>prices </li></ul>GRDP (P) =  Gross Value Added (GVA) by industry, by region
  9. 9. II. COMPILATION PROCESS <ul><ul><li>Top to Bottom Approach: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- National control total by sector is allocated by region </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- data support is stronger at the national level </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. II. COMPILATION PROCESS <ul><ul><li>The NSCB is in the process of devolving the estimation of the GRDP to the NSCB Regional Offices: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- the NSCB Central Office estimates the GRDP by sector for all 17 regions using the national level as control total. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Simultaneously, the 9 NSCB regional offices come up with an independent estimate of their region’s GDP by sector using available data and indicators from their respective regions </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. II. COMPILATION PROCESS <ul><ul><li>Estimates of the Central Office and the NSCB Regions go through a deliberation process by sector by region (validation of data, major developments in the region, etc.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The final estimates are reached, in consensus with the NSCB Regions after incorporating all considerations in the deliberation process. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Independent estimates from the regions, however, will not add up to the national total </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>National total by sector is allocated to the Regions using percentage distribution. </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. III. SOURCES OF DATA <ul><ul><li>Census/Survey-based data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Census of Phil. Business & Industry (CPBI) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Annual Survey of Phil. Business & Industry (ASPBI) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Quarterly Survey of Phil Business & Industry (QSPBI) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Administrative-based data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Special Studies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Indicators from Industry Associations (i.e., Chamber of Mines, Cement Manufacturers Assn. of the Philippines, etc.) </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. <ul><li>Indirect Approach : Use of GVARs </li></ul><ul><li>GVA = Gross Output * Gross Value Added </li></ul><ul><li>Ratio (GVAR) </li></ul><ul><li>where: </li></ul><ul><li>GVAR = Gross Value Added </li></ul><ul><li>Gross Output </li></ul><ul><li>Sectors: Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry, Mining </li></ul><ul><li>and Quarrying </li></ul>IV. Current Price Estimation: by region
  14. 14. <ul><li>Value Extrapolation </li></ul><ul><li>GVA t = previous GVA level t-1 * growth rate of </li></ul><ul><li> the value of production t /t-1 </li></ul><ul><li>Example: Services sectors – value extrapolation using the trend of gross revenue from the Quarterly Survey of Phil Business and Industry (QSPBI) </li></ul>IV. Current Price Estimation: by region
  15. 15. <ul><li>Uses the fixed-base year method: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Single Deflation: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GVA k = GVA t /Deflator </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quantity Revaluation: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GVA k = (Qty t * Price at base year)*GVAR </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Volume Extrapolation: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GVA k = GVA level t-1 * 1+ GR rate of </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> volume or output indicator /t-1 </li></ul></ul>IV. Constant Price Estimation: by region
  16. 16. V. DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS <ul><li>Addressing increasing demand for local level statistics: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>pilot compilation of the Provincial Product Accounts for the provinces of Palawan in 1998 and Guimaras in 2006 </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. V. DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS <ul><li>ADVANCE RELEASE CALENDAR: NSCB has adopted a policy of releasing in advance the schedule of press releases for the national accounts & its related accounts including the GRDP </li></ul><ul><li>Forging of partnerships with source agencies </li></ul><ul><li>- bilateral meetings, Task Forces </li></ul>
  18. 18. V. DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS <ul><li>S upplementary data from the private sector: </li></ul><ul><li>- financial statement of companies </li></ul><ul><li>- gross revenue of top food chains </li></ul><ul><li>- volume and value of utilities </li></ul><ul><li>- Indicators from industry associations </li></ul><ul><li>I ncorporated emerging industries such as the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) in GRDP beginning 2003 </li></ul>
  19. 19. V. DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS <ul><li>Use of NSCB website to inform the public: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Press Releases, Announcements on the GRDP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technical Notes on the GRDP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Metadata on the GRDP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Advance Release Calendar on National Accounts and its Related Accounts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional Fact Sheets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Response to erroneous GRDP reports from the media </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. VI. ISSUES <ul><li>Data Problems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Data support at the regional level </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Frequent revision of regional compositions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>T ime lag of data sources Survey/Census results, Price indices, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>N eed to update/improve parameters </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ratios used in estimation i.e., GVAR, undercoverage ratios </li></ul></ul>
  21. 21. VI. ISSUES <ul><li>Coverage </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E merging Industries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Births and deaths of establishments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Undercoverage of illegal activities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Undercoverage of own-account production </li></ul></ul>
  22. 22. VI. ISSUES <ul><li>Some Measurement Problems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional allocation of output </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-Economic activities such as Fishing, Transportation and Communication industries which extend beyond regional boundaries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-Problem of allocating the cost of operations of the head office for companies with regional branches </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional estimates of the informal sector </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. VI. ISSUES <ul><li>RESOURCES </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Manpower </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- fast turnover of national accounts staff in the central office </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- need for training on National Accounts for NSCB personnel in the Regions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- need for the NSCB Central Office staff to revive visits to the regions for validation of estimates </li></ul></ul>
  24. 24. VI. ISSUES <ul><li>RESOURCES </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Software for GRDP Compilation: </li></ul></ul><ul><li>-need to upgrade current hardware and </li></ul><ul><li>software resources </li></ul><ul><li> - need to refine the existing computerized </li></ul><ul><li>GRDP compilation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Financial Resources for statistical activities: limited budget given to censuses and surveys; Statistical offices always get low priority in the allocation of resources </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. VII. CURRENT IMPROVEMENTS <ul><li>Over-all Revision/Rebasing of the GRDP </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Revised/rebased 1998-2009 series </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Implementation of 1993 SNA Concepts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shift in base year to 2000 & eventually 2006 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improvement in Data and Methodology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Refinements in the computerized compilation of the GRDP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Date of Release: September 2010 </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. VIII. NEXT STEPS <ul><ul><li>Compilation of City/Provincial Product Accounts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provision of training to Compilers and Data Producers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Policy on Overall Revision/Rebasing of the GRDP </li></ul></ul>
  27. 27. Maraming Salamat Po! URL: http://www.nscb.gov.ph e-mail: [email_address]