In the contemporary era, international geopolitical chess points to the existence of three major players: the United States, China and Russia. The future confrontation between these three great military powers may result in alternative scenarios to what has characterized the hegemony of the United States on the world scene since the end of the bipolar world in which the United States and the Soviet Union confronted each other. Based on the three main protagonists of contemporary international geopolitical chess, it can be said that the United States aims to maintain its global hegemony in the economic and military spheres. To achieve this goal, the US government's strategies basically consist of the following: 1) prevent Russia from rising to the status of great world power, and 2) stop the rise of China as the hegemonic economic power of the planet. In practice, the US government wants to avoid facing the future of two giants: Russia and China. The escalation of a possible 4th World War can be used as a solution to the general crisis of the world capitalist system that erupted in 2008 in the United States as occurred with the advent of World War I after the depression of 1873, the Second World War after Depression of 1929 and of the Third World War (Cold War) to face the socialist system led by the Soviet Union after 1945.

1. THE WORLD TOWARD WORLD WAR 4?
Fernando Alcoforado *
In the article Cientistas calculam probabilidade de uma quarta guerra mundial
(Scientists calculate probability of a fourth world war), published in the website
<https://br.sputniknews.com/portuguese.ruvr.ru/2013_04_12/Christians-calculate-
probability-of-a-4-world-war/> is presented the thesis of Serguei Malkov that the world
will come in the next decade for the 4th World War. According to Serguei Malkov, a
member of the Academy of Military Sciences and Professor at Moscow University, the
next world war may begin in the next decade, according to the Kondratieff long cycle
theory developed by the Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratieff.
The Kondratieff cycles are periods of economic development of modern civilization
lasting forty to sixty years. Nikolai Kondratieff outlined a total of six cycles spanning a
historical period between the years 1803 and 2060. The fourth cycle ran approximately
between the end of World War II and the first half of the 1980s. At this time we are
living the fifth cycle which according to Kondratieff's predictions is expected to end in
2018. The adherents of this theory link each economic cycle directly to its technological
standard or level. According to Serguei Malkov, the current period is characterized by
the development of telecommunications and robotics. The next cycle, the sixth, should
be marked by a breakthrough in nanotechnology, biotechnology and information and
knowledge technologies.
Each cycle is accompanied by crises and wars. The end of the current cycle and the
transition to the next technological standard will be accompanied by at least a very
strong political instability, or even by a world war, in the opinion of Professor of the
Moscow University Serguei Malkov. We are now in the phase of crisis that has evolved
into a depression and we are looking for possible solutions for this state of depression
with the use of nanotechnology, biotechnologies, information technologies and
cognitive sciences. But this period is very dangerous because we cannot yet see one
solution, while the contradictions have already accumulated. At that time, world wars
usually take place. Both the commercial, financial, economic and political, as well as
the wars themselves. There is a kind of reordering of the world.
Indeed, if we consider cycle theory as a model to follow, we can see that during the last
two centuries the bloodiest events in world history occurred at the end of each so-called
Kondratieff wave. The crisis has passed and now we are approaching the fatal point.
According to predictions from supporters of Kondratieff's theory, the critical moment
will occur between 2016 and 2017. In Malkov's view, the United States is currently
losing its positions worldwide. World economic instability will value the US dollar, and
political instability will increase the need for the United States to act as an international
arbitrator. As the United States can no longer sustain world leadership based on its
economic power, they will begin to use their political, financial, technological, and even
military tools. The Americans are simply compelled to provoke the instability in the
world to keep their world power.
In the contemporary era, international geopolitical chess points to the existence of three
major players: the United States, China and Russia. The future confrontation between
these three great military powers may result in alternative scenarios to what has
characterized the hegemony of the United States on the world scene since the end of the
bipolar world in which the United States and the Soviet Union confronted each other.

2. Based on the three main protagonists of contemporary international geopolitical chess,
it can be said that the United States aims to maintain its global hegemony in the
economic and military spheres. To achieve this goal, the US government's strategies
basically consist of the following: 1) prevent Russia from rising to the status of great
world power, and 2) stop the rise of China as the hegemonic economic power of the
planet. In practice, the US government wants to avoid facing the future of two giants:
Russia and China.
Michael Klare, professor of world peace and security studies at Hampshire College in
Amherst, Mass., and author of the recently released Rising powers, shrinking planet;
The new geopolitics of energy, published in the United States by Metropolitan Books,
and the United Kingdom by One World Publications, states in an article of his own,
Washington analyzes scenarios for an "open war", published on the website
<http://www.diplomatique.org, which significant conflicts with nuclear powers like
Russia and China are what Western strategists see in the future, as occurred at the height
of the Cold War.
According to Klare, today tensions in relations between Russia and the West are
growing, each watching the other in anticipation of a confrontation. In Brussels, as in
Washington, for many years Russia has ceased to be a priority in defense programs. But
this will no longer be the case in the future. Today, the United States and the European
Union consider that it is necessary to focus again the concerns of a confrontation with
Moscow. Klare says that the perceived conflict would be more likely to occur on the
eastern front of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), encompassing Poland
and the Baltic states, with conventional high-tech weapons. But it could extend to
Scandinavia and the surrounding North Sea, and lead to the use of nuclear weapons. US
and European strategists therefore recommend building capacity in all these regions and
want to consolidate NATO's nuclear option.
The new US military budget marks a major change of direction. While in recent years
the United States has given priority to "large-scale anti-insurrectionary operations", they
must now prepare for a "return of rivalry between great powers" without ruling out the
possibility of an open conflict with a "major enemy" such as Russia or China. Russia
and China are the "main rivals" of the United States, according to Klare, because they
possess very sophisticated weapons to counteract some of the advantages of the
Americans who must show that they have the capacity to cause intolerable losses to a
well-equipped aggressor, To dissuade him from performing provocative maneuvers or
to make him regret bitterly in case he launches them. Such an objective requires
reinforcing the US's ability to counteract a hypothetical Russian attack on NATO's
Eastern European positions. The installation of four battalions in Poland and the Baltic
states is all the more remarkable when it is thought to be the first semi-permanent
garrison of multinational NATO forces in the territory of the former Soviet Union.
Theresa May, the new British prime minister, obtained the endorsement of her
Parliament for the preservation and development of the Trident nuclear missile program,
stating that the nuclear threat did not disappear, on the contrary, it has become more
pronounced. To justify preparing a major conflict against a "major enemy," US and
European analysts almost invariably invoke Russian aggression in Ukraine and Beijing's
expansion in the South China Sea. In this new era of "rivalry between the great powers,"
the American strike force seems less fearsome than before, while the ability of rival
powers keeps increasing. The maneuvers of Moscow in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine

3. and the active forces in Crimea and Syria show that Russia has taken giant steps in
developing its ability to use its force effectively.
Similarly, by transforming reefs and atolls of the South China Sea into islets that could
house important facilities, Beijing has given rise to astonishment and concern in the
United States, which for a long time considered it a "North American lake". Westerners
are impressed by the growing power of the Chinese Army. Washington today enjoys a
naval and air superiority in the region, but the audacity of the Chinese maneuvers
suggests that Beijing has become a rival that cannot be neglected. Strategists see no
other option but to preserve broad superiority in order to prevent future potential
competitors from harming US interests. Hence the insistent threats of a larger conflict,
which would justify the extra expenses in the hypersophisticated weaponry that a
"major enemy" demands.
Klare says that fabulous sums are devoted to acquiring state-of-the-art equipment
capable of overtaking Russian and Chinese defense systems and strengthening US
capabilities in potential conflict zones such as the Baltic Sea or the Pacific West. The
Pentagon will also buy (Virginia-class) submarines and additional destroyers (Burke) to
confront Chinese advances in the Pacific. It has begun deploying its latest-generation
anti-missile system, the Thaad (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) in South Korea.
Officially, it is about tackling North Korea, but it is also possible to consider this
decision to address the threat posed by China..
It is highly unlikely that Donald Trump will relinquish preparation for a conflict with
China or Russia. Trump repeated several times that he wants to rebuild the country's
"depleted" military capabilities. Intimidation and military training in sensitive areas
such as Eastern Europe and the South China Sea may become the new norm, with the
risks of unintended escalation. Washington, Moscow and Beijing, in any case,
announced that they would install additional forces there and conduct exercises there.
The Western approach to this type of major conflict also counts with numerous
supporters in Russia and China. The problem, then, is not just an East-West opposition:
the eventuality of an open war between great powers spreads in the minds and leads the
decision-makers to prepare for it.
The escalation of a possible 4th World War can be used as a way out of the general
crisis of the world capitalist system that erupted in 2008 in the United States as occurred
with the advent of World War I after the Depression of 1873, Of World War II after the
depression of 1929 and World War 3 to face the Soviet-led socialist system after 1945.
For the foregoing, the prediction of the Russian scientist Malkov about the advent of a
new world war based on the long cycles of Kondratieff could be realized.
* Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011),

4. Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012),
Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2015) and As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo
(Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016) .