President Lula said in his inaugural speech in 2003 he won the election because hope (of the people) won fear (of change). However, when taking office, President Lula and his team have shown that the fear of facing the real causes of national problems overlapped on the hope of the people to carry out the changes required to promote economic and social progress of Brazil because it kept neoliberal economic policy of the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government. Instead of mobilizing civil society to together with the government to develop and implement a national development plan capable of breaking the barriers to economic and social progress of Brazil that correspond to the true interests of the majority of the Brazilian people, governments of PT (Worker Party) of Lula and Dilma Rousseff decided to maintain the neoliberal economic model opened in the Fernando Collor government which resulted in increased dependence of the country on foreign capital and low economic growth.

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FEAR WON HOPE IN BRAZIL
Fernando Alcoforado *
The very bad performance of the Brazilian economy in the 1980s, when presented the
lowest economic growth rates recorded in the twentieth century, did it become
imperative to search for alternative ways by Brazilian government. It was disastrous to
attempt to overcome the 1980s crisis with the introduction in Brazil, in the 1990s, the
neoliberal economic model of indiscriminate opening of the Brazilian economy,
privatization of state enterprises and reducing the size of government, among other
measures, deployed from the Fernando Collor government and consolidated in the
Fernando Henrique Cardoso government considering that contributed to further barriers
to the development of the country represented primarily by its growing economic,
financial and technological dependence on the outside and their vulnerability to attack
of speculative foreign capital.
Much of the electorate that elected Lula President of the Republic in 2002 voted in the
hope that his government perform substantial changes in the economy to contribute to
halt the process of domestic and foreign debt of Brazil, the denationalization of the
national economy, restricting the country's economic growth, the rise in unemployment
and the deterioration of its huge social problems. President Lula said in his inaugural
speech in 2003 he won the election because hope (of the people) won fear (of change).
However, when taking office, President Lula and his team have shown that the fear of
facing the real causes of national problems overlapped on the hope of the people to
carry out the changes required to promote economic and social progress of Brazil
because it kept neoliberal economic policy of the Fernando Henrique Cardoso
government.
Instead of mobilizing civil society to together with the government to develop and
implement a national development plan capable of breaking the barriers to economic
and social progress of Brazil that correspond to the true interests of the majority of the
Brazilian people, governments of PT (Worker Party) of Lula and Dilma Rousseff
decided to maintain the neoliberal economic model opened in the Fernando Collor
government which resulted in increased dependence of the country on foreign capital
and low economic growth. Some fundamental measures would have to be put in place
by Lula and Dilma Rousseff for the actions in the economic system could be successful,
such as the planning of national economic activity to ensure economic growth and the
country's development in sovereign and sustainable bases and the audit of public debt
before the renegotiation of terms of payment of the public debt of the country whose
resources would be used in economic expansion in Brazil.
By maintaining the neoliberal economic model, Lula and Dilma Rousseff governments
helped to lead Brazil to the brink of bankruptcy that is occurring at the time. Brazil is
currently a country that is terminally ill, as well said the Financial Times recently. This
is manifested in the fact that there are a vertiginous wave of unemployment, widespread
business failure and growing indebtedness of households, companies and the federal
government, the states and municipalities that can cause an unprecedented upheaval in
the history of Brazil. Most companies are highly vulnerable and unstable markets with
the high dollar and falling export earnings could lead the country to bankruptcy. In turn,
the financial position of the federal government, state governments and the municipal
governments are already quite committed to the vertiginous drop of the tax collection
resulting of the downturn in economic activity in Brazil.

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The bankruptcy and default of companies that register at the time aggravate the
economic crisis in Brazil. Many small and medium-sized businesses closed their doors
in early 2015 with the credit crunch and falling demand. Several large companies are
also nearing bankruptcy with mass layoffs and defaults on high. The record number of
defaulting companies reached 4 million, with R$ 91 billion in debt. In turn, the number
of default of consumers hit record in August 2015. Are 57.2 million consumers with
debt arrears, totaling R$ 246 billion. This set of debt represents 39% of the total adult
population of the country - that is, people of 18 years or more. That is to say four adults
every ten consumers are with debt arrears in Brazil. Unemployment and high inflation
are the main factors to explain the increase in indebtedness among individuals in Brazil.
The smaller wage increases in this period of crisis also reduce workers' purchasing
power. With less money in your pocket makes it difficult for consumers to consume and
pay off debts (See the website <http://folhacentrosul.com.br/brasil/7693/quebradeira-e-
inadimplencia-de-empresas-complicam-a-crise-no-brasil>).
The trend is that defaults continue to rise among companies and individuals. With
declining sales and high interest rates there is no change in this debt scenario. A reversal
of this situation depends on what the federal government will take to restructure the
Brazilian economy on new foundations. To overcome the current economic crisis, it is
urgent to replace the neoliberal model in place of wide opening of the Brazilian
economy to foreign markets for other model supported domestically and of selective
opening of the Brazilian economy to halt the economic stagnation in progress. The
national economic model developmentalist would cause Brazil to take on the direction
of its destination, unlike the neoliberal model in place that makes the future of the
country be dictated by market forces all of them committed to national and international
financial capital.
The recession of the weakened Brazilian economy has worsened further with the fiscal
adjustment implemented by the economic team of the Dilma Rousseff government
because maintaining the "status quo" contributes to further increase of the huge tax
burden in the country to cover the budget deficit. Fiscal adjustment is also contributing
to further decrease access to credit for individuals and businesses due to higher interest
rates and push up the inflation. With this, the demand is being negatively impacted. All
this shows that Brazil, as an economic, social and policy organization is disintegrating.
The signs of disintegration are evident in all parts of the country. The neoliberal
economic model in place shows clear signs of exhaustion. In addition, all the political
and administrative system of the country is contaminated by corruption and state
administrative apparatus is inefficient and ineffective.
All that has just been described coincides with the existence of a weak government
under the incompetent management of Dilma Rousseff that doesn´t have political
leadership nor the administrative capacity needed to make the changes required for
Brazil in the current considering to have rejection of 70% of the population who want
his removal from power. To avoid catastrophe political, economic and social threat to
Brazil, it is urgent to replace the Rousseff administration with one that is able to lead the
celebration of a new social contract and join the Brazilian nation around a common
development project. It seems that if Dilma Rousseff is not devoid of power through
impeachment by unlawful acts that would have practiced, Brazil could be the stage of
upheaval with the confrontation between the vast majority of the Brazilian people that
want their deposition and government supporters with unforeseeable consequences. One
must consider the lessons of history that teach us that the social upheaval can lead to the

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establishment of dictatorships of right-wing or left-wing. This is the risk that threatens
the Brazilian society. Brazil live, thus, decisive moments in its history.

Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011),
Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012) and
Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2015).