The political and economic crises that shake Brazil at the moment have some similarities to those that occurred in 1930 and led to the deposition of President of Republic, Washington Luis. The political crisis in 1930 was the product of exhaustion of the oligarchic regime inaugurated in 1889 with the proclamation of the Republic and the economic crisis was a consequence of economic infeasibility of the existing agro-export model in Brazil since the colonial period that suffered heavy blow to the global economic crisis of 1929. In turn, the 2015 political crisis in Brazil is the product of exhaustion of the social contract established with the 1988 Constitution and the current economic crisis is a result of the exhaustion of the neoliberal economic model dependent on the outside in place since 1990 and it is also suffering the consequences of the 2008 economic crisis that erupted in the United States and spilled over the world.

1. 1
SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE CRISIS OF 1930 AND 2015 IN BRAZIL
Fernando Alcoforado *
The political and economic crises that shake Brazil at the moment have some
similarities to those that occurred in 1930 and led to the deposition of President of
Republic, Washington Luis. The political crisis in 1930 was the product of exhaustion
of the oligarchic regime inaugurated in 1889 with the proclamation of the Republic and
the economic crisis was a consequence of economic infeasibility of the existing agro-
export model in Brazil since the colonial period that suffered heavy blow to the global
economic crisis of 1929. In turn, the 2015 political crisis in Brazil is the product of
exhaustion of the social contract established with the 1988 Constitution and the current
economic crisis is a result of the exhaustion of the neoliberal economic model
dependent on the outside in place since 1990 and it is also suffering the consequences of
the 2008 economic crisis that erupted in the United States and spilled over the world.
The Washington Luis deposition of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil occurred in
1930. The end of the oligarchic regime was related both to the economic crisis that hit
Brazil, especially after the crash of the New York Stock Exchange in 1929, as the
political crisis in context of the oligarchy that ruled the Federal Executive Power. The
crash of the New York Stock Exchange in October 1929 and the subsequent Great
Depression influenced directly the decline of the Brazilian economy, since the coffee
represented ¾ of Brazilian exports and because of the global economic crisis, the
country was in a precarious financial situation. The result was a deep crisis on the
Brazilian economy, which is also reflected in the political alliances of their own
agrarian oligarchy of the country. Washington Luis did not respond to the request for
economic salvation demanded by coffee farmers who had suffered losses with the fall of
the price of the product in the international market. Thus, Washington Luis just growing
dissatisfaction of its base of political support.
In connection with the oligarchies of other states, the fact that Washington Luis
indicated another political based in São Paulo to succeed him, Julio Prestes, resulted in
the abandonment of the alliance with politicians of Minas Gerais, known as the "Coffee
with Milk" policy. In view of this, the Liberal Alliance was formed, whose electoral
plate, headed by Getúlio Vargas, was composed by the opposition of Minas Gerais, Rio
Grande do Sul and Paraíba, with a platform that sought to attract the interests of the
urban strata of Brazil. The 1930 election resulted in Julio Prestes's election that was
considered fraudulent, a fact that has made the most radical wing of the Liberal Alliance
initiate a conspiratorial process aimed at the overthrow of President Washington Luis.
The conspiracy gained strength after the murder of João Pessoa, candidate for vice
president in Recife. At the time, there were allegations that the crime was ordered by
Washington Luis.
Members of the Liberal Alliance won the support of some of the officers who had taken
part in the lieutenants' movement, the name given to the political-military movement
and the number of young officers rebellions of low- and middle-patent of the Brazilian
Army in the early 1920s, unhappy with the political situation of Brazil. In October
1930, the military movements began in Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Paraíba,
with the seizure of power in those states. On October 24, 1930, military forces in Rio de
Janeiro achieved the deposition of Washington Luis, moving temporarily to occupy the
post of Chairman the Gaucho Getulio Vargas. It was the end of Oligarchic Republic or
Old Republic and the start of Vargas Era.

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The severe economic crisis affecting Brazil was faced and overcome by the Getúlio
Vargas government. The agrarian export model was replaced by the national
development model after the 1930 Revolution, when Vargas rises to power and starts
the period of industrialization in Brazil. Vargas based his administration in the precepts
of populism, nationalism and Labor. The economic policy came to value the internal
market, which favored industrial growth and, consequently, the process of urbanization.
The Vargas Era, so the change of the direction of the Republic, by transferring the
nucleus of political power from agriculture to industry. However, the political crisis that
led Getúlio Vargas to power through a coup d'etat resulted in the establishment of a
authoritarian regime under his command, which became known as the "New State",
which only ended in 1945.
In the contemporary era, the catastrophe that records today is the product of almost
terminal crisis of the political and economic systems in Brazil. The political crisis that
shakes the Brazil result from the failure of the political model adopted in the
Constituent 1988. The failure of the political model in Brazil is configured on the fact
that the presidential system in force have completely failed and be generator of political
and institutional crises, the political system country is contaminated by corruption and
representative democracy in Brazil show clear signs of exhaustion not only by
corruption scandals in the powers of the Republic, but above all to discourage popular
participation in government decisions.
The massive economic crisis that faces Brazil in time results from the failure of the
neoliberal economic and anti-national model. This model failed in Brazil after
provoking a real devastation in the Brazilian economy from 1990 to 2014 configured on
the insignificant economic growth, inflation uncontrolled, the existing bottlenecks in
economic and social infrastructure, the de-industrialization of the Brazilian economy,
the explosion of public debt and the denationalization of the Brazilian economy. In an
attempt to overcome the economic crisis, the Dilma Rousseff government decided to
adopt an extremely recessive policy that is already translating in the stagnant economy,
rising public debt, the imbalance in the external accounts and also in mass
unemployment. The economic stagnation that hit Brazil and compromise capitalists'
profits, raise unemployment and adversely affect the distribution of income, is reducing
state revenues that is already demanding cuts in the government budget and tax
increases.
In these circumstances, no domestic and foreign investor would invest in Brazil with a
stagnant economy as it is right now. The stagnation of the Brazilian economy that is
also occurring causes government revenues fall at all levels implying no public
resources for investment in sufficient quantity to invest in economic and social
infrastructure. Because of all this, Dilma Rousseff is gradually losing the support of the
ruling classes and also of the lower social classes that is translating in the very low
popularity ratings of the government. We must make it clear that, in order to govern,
every government should seek to ensure the gains of the capitalists and the
improvement of material well-being of the population. And to improve it, the
government needs to promote economic development to facilitate the accumulation of
capital and generate employment and income for the population.
The governance of Brazil and the Brazilian economy are at risk because the Dilma
Rousseff government does not have the support of the vast majority of the population
and its different social classes, and has no parliamentary majority to implement his

3. 3
policies. It should be noted that governance concerns the government's political ability
to decide, enabling the execution of public policies. Dilma Rousseff does not meet any
of these conditions to govern the nation. This situation will only be reversed with the
existence in Brazil of a government that is able to unite the nation around a common
project of economic, political and social development and consists of competent people
in the nation's command.
Faced with the inability of Dilma Rousseff government to prevent the ongoing
economic and social chaos that tends to lead the Brazilian economy to bankruptcy and
the increase in social inequalities, ensuring the political governance of the country and
unite the nation around a common development project, will it becomes increasingly
unlikely their hold on power. Faced with the most serious political crisis in Brazil
whose government “bleeds” without being able to remain in power in the face of
rejection of the overwhelming majority of the population and the grave economic crisis
that is leading the country to bankruptcy, it is urgent to replace the Dilma Rousseff
government by another that can lead the celebration of a new social contract and join
the Brazilian nation around a common development project. It seems that if Dilma
Rousseff is not deposed by impeachment because of the crime of tax liability or
electoral crime, as happened with Julio Prestes election in 1930, his deposition could
happen, just as in 1930, through coup d’état with the worsening political and economic
crises.

Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011),
Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012) and
Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2015).