Bill Ralph, R.K. Johns & Associates

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Bill Ralph, R.K. Johns & Associates

  1. 1. Hyatt Regency Sarasota Panel Discussion: Projected Impacts on Regional Business from the Expansion of the Panama Canal Bill Ralph April 19, 2010 R. K. Johns & Associates, Inc.
  2. 2. Agenda & Speakers: • Start the panel discussion with some Panama Canal current events (thanks to the Canal Authority!) and share my thoughts on the expansion’s impact on U.S. trade, ships & ports • Introduce our starting lineup of panel experts: Franc J. Pigna Managing Director Aegir Port Property Advisers David L. McDonald PPM® Port Manatee Executive Director • Encourage audience participation R. K. Johns & Associates, Inc. 2
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  15. 15. U.S. Container Port Review Top 10 U.S. Ports Container Volume, 1999-2009 (in 000 TEU, including loads & empties) % chg. 10-Year % chg. Jan-Feb 1999 2009 CAGR '09 vs '08 '10 vs '09 1 Los Angeles 3,829 6,749 5.8% -14% 10% 2 Long Beach 4,408 5,068 1.4% -22% 17% 3 NY/NJ 2,829 4,561 4.9% -13% 11% 4 Savannah 793 2,357 11.5% -10% 20% 5 Oakland 1,664 2,051 2.1% -8% 7% 6 Houston 1,031 1,797 5.7% flat 10% 7 Hampton Roads 1,307 1,745 2.9% -16% 11% 8 Seattle 1,490 1,583 0.6% -7% 33% 9 Tacoma 1,271 1,546 2.0% -17% -17% 10 Charleston 1,483 1,181 -2.2% -28% na Source: AAPA, and individual ports 12 of 19 ports that report monthly info to AAPA show an increase in 2010 R. K. Johns & Associates, Inc. 15
  16. 16. All-Water Coastal Shares of North Asia – U.S. Trade (000 TEU) East Coast West Coast Gulf Coast 2000 2009 2030 839 3,6493 13,900 15% 27% 31% 157 1,050 2% 3% 4,699 9,4587 29,500 85% 71% 66% Source: R. K. Johns • Key assumption: cargo goes to the consumer in the most efficient, cost effective way the retailer can achieve with the growing use of local distribution centers • 30% of the US population (=consumer spending) is located within one state of the Eastern seaboard • Assuming East coast ports & Panama Canal are prepared, carriers & their customers will bring the containers all-water R. K. Johns & Associates, Inc. 16
  17. 17. Franc J. Pigna Managing Director Aegir Port Property Advisers David L. McDonald PPM® Port Manatee Executive Director R. K. Johns & Associates, Inc. 17
  18. 18. Thank you ! Bill Ralph R. K. Johns & Associates 226 Chestnut St. Roselle Park NJ brrkja@aol.com 908-245-2181 R. K. Johns & Associates, Inc. 18

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