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? -------- 非概率,等概率,不等概 每个单元入样的概率 第五章 不等概抽样
例 ,[object Object]
等概率的抽取样本医院的缺点? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
其他办法? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
场合:总体单元差异比较大时 ; 抽样审计 ; 多阶段的 PSU. 入样概率不同是否导致估计偏差? 例如“水野法”抽样使得比估计为无偏估计量 一、不等概抽样的必要性 * 提高估计精度 * 放回的 PPS 抽样简化方差计算 应用条件:通常需要知道一个辅助变量,用以确定其入样的概率
类型 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
(Probability Proportional  to Size) 也称 PPZ
1 代码法案例 一种多项抽样 累计 代码 1 0.6 6 6 1~6 2 14.5 145 151 7~151 3 1.5 15 166 152~166 4 13.7 137 303 167~303 5 7.8 78 381 304~381 6 15 150 531 382~531 7 10 100 631 532~631 8 3.6 36 667 632~667 9 6 60 727 668~727 10 1.1 11 738 728~738 = 738 738    
2 拉希里方法 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
M i <k 不重复 >k 可能重复 >2k 肯定重复 3 不等概等距抽样 K = M 0 /n
估计量 ,[object Object],例如:估计超市销售额, m :员工人数 解释公式意义
[object Object]
例 5.2   ,[object Object]
1* 38.23 10926 10 6.50 1900 19 1.50 10 2 13.70 1024 11 15.00 864 20 8.00 80 3 0.75 13 12 7.00 17 21 28.42 13672 4 2.85 30 13 16.00 1045 22* 9.01 3845 5 2.00 1102 14 12.30 220 23 0.75 480 6 5.00 600 15 3.86 4600 24 6.00 311 7 10.80 290 16 15.80 2370 25 28.43 9284 8 2.00 430 17 9.00 940 26 9.97 842 9 8.81 992 18* 21.00 640 27 6.20 510
                            757087 (元) 相对误差 相对误差达到 20 %时所需样本量? =45% 174118
不放回的与单元大小成比例的概率抽样为 πPS 抽样   n 固定条件下的包含概率   第 i 单位入样概率 第 i , j 单位都入样概率
 
i=1  j>i 是 Y 的无偏估计 是  的无偏估计 PPS
其他公式在某种程度上可用这两个公式表现。 如:在 srs 中 (等概抽样) 在 srs 等概抽样条件下,每个单元包含概率是 则
又如,对于霍维茨——汤普森估计量 在入选概率与规模成比例条件下, 的性质为 则
πPS 抽样的实施 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
布鲁尔方法 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
德宾方法 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
水野方法 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
莫蒂方法 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
作业 5 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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不等概抽样