This document discusses using scenario planning and games to model participatory and multi-stakeholder management of natural resources. It provides examples of scenario planning games that explore different outcomes based on rules about tree ownership rights. The document also summarizes the results of one such game, finding that granting tree rights led to higher farmer incomes and tree cover but reduced biodiversity compared to having no tree rights.

1. Escenarios, Juegos y
Estrategias
Modelos participativso y manejo multi-actores de
recursos naturales
Claudio Garcia

2. FORDEV

3. FORDEV
Karbi Anglong
TiCoYa

5. Juegos

8. • The purpose of scenario
planning is not to pinpoint
future events but to
highlight large-scale
forces that push the future
in different directions.
• It's about making these
forces visible
• It's about helping make
better decisions today.
http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html

10. Que techo? Para la seguridad de quién?
Que trayectoria?
Quién elige?
Que objetivos?
Resiliencia de
qué? Para
quién?
Quién gana?
Quién pierde?

12. 3
1 2

14. December 15,
2014
WCA 2014 – Delhi 14

15. Biodiversity
changes
Forest to
Agroforest

16. Landscape Trends
December 15,
2014
WCA 2014 – Delhi 16

17. Stand dynamics

19. Biodiversity
changes
Forest to
Agroforest
Reducing
canopy
Replacing
by
G. robusta
Tree
ownership
rights
Implementation
of public policies
Labor costs
Coffee
prices
fluctuation
Timber
smuggling

20. Timber Rights
Cheynier 2006

21. Timber Rights

22. “While conferring ownership rights […] right over the
tree growth may be excluded. As otherwise, it is
apprehended that in 10 years time the entire tree
growth is likely to disappear.”
- G.K. Lokare, Secy. to Govt., Revenue Dept., 22/9/99

24. ComMod: Objectives
1rst : to improve knowledge / understanding
Through Modeling
2nd : to support collective decision-making
processes

25. sells
Market Forest Dpt
Coffee
owner
Input
WCA 2014 – Delhi 25
Irrigation
infrastructure
Labor
buys
hires
works
climbs on
Management
bloc
sell
Timber
merchant
buys
buys
enforces policies

26. Conceptual Model
Régénération naturelle
Role Playing Game
Grevillea robusta
Ferme
Poivre Force de travail
Irrigation
Intrants
Perche
Arbre élagué
Junglewood
Caféier
10 cm

27. Scenarios
• No Tree Rights
– Difficult to sale Jungle Wood on the legal
market
– No restrictions on Silver Oak
• Tree Rights
– No restrictions on Jungle Wood as well as
on Silver Oak

28. December 15,
2014
WCA 2014 – Delhi 28

29. Result - Livelihood
250
200
150
100
50
0
Average Income: Coffee + Pepper + Timber
1 2 3 4 5
Farmer's Income (in CINC)
No Tree
Rights
Tree Rights
Game Turns

30. Result – Tree cover
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Tree Rights
0 1 2 3 4 5
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
No Tree Rights
0 1 2 3 4 5
Trees Saplings Seedlings

31. Result - Biodiversity
100%
50%
0%
No Tree Rights
0 1 2 3 4 5
100%
50%
0%
Tree Rights
0 1 2 3 4 5
Jungle Wood Silver Oak

32. Biodiversity
changes
Forest to
Agroforest
Opening
the canopy
Certification
GI
PES
Planting
G. robusta
ownership
Implementation
of public policies
Labor costs
Coffee
prices
fluctuation
Timber
smuggling
Tree
Ownership
rights

33. 5
1
Multi-Agent Universe
3
2
Information Action

34. sells
Market Forest Dpt
Coffee
owner
Input
Irrigation
infrastructure
Labor
buys
hires
works
climbs on
Management
bloc
sell
Timber
merchant
buys
buys
enforces policies

35. Conceptual model

36. Stupid agent Applet

37. Conceptual model

38. Online Platform
http://www.fordev-kodagu.ethz.ch/

40. AAR

43. Outcome?
SCENARIOS
S1 S2 S3 S4
LIVELIHOODS ++ + + -
CULTURAL IDENTITY - + - - -
BIODIVERSITY + ++ - ++

44. AAR

45. Landscape Trends

46. Sígannos!
http://www.fordev-kodagu.ethz.ch/
https://www.facebook.com/fordev.eth