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State of Consumer VR & AR
and
Predictions for 2018 & 2028
Charlie Fink
Contributor, Forbes.com
Contributing Editor, VR Voi...
About Me
• Contributor, Forbes; Editor, VR Voice
• Entrepreneur & Producer
• President, AG Interactive 00-04
• SVP, Americ...
• AR and VR Represent a Major Paradigm Shift
in Computing
• Technology succeeds when it makes what we
are already doing be...
• Microsoft – Hololens, Microsoft VR
• Apple - iGlass
• Facebook – Rift, Oculus Store for Gear
• Google – Daydream, Magic ...
Wild Cards
• Magic Leap
• Disruptive tech
• Apple AR
• Wearable (Probably)
• Microsoft Hololens
• Windows VR
• OEM
• The d...
Early Markets for Consumer Tech Are
Driven by Killer Apps
• Personal Computer
• Online Services (email)
• Shopping
• Socia...
How People Are
Exposed to VR
• Mobile
• Cardboard
• GearVR
• Work
• VRcades
• Room Scale
• Free Roam
• Movies/Pop Culture
...
Enterprise Goes First
• Military
• Design & Construction
• Industrial Maintenance
• Remote Experts
• Medical
• Monitor Con...
VR/AR Consumer Products
• 360 Video
• Pro
• Consumer
• VR
• Mobile
• Fully Immersive
• AR/MR
• 3D Mobile Apps
• Wearable
360 Video – The Tip of the Spear
• Pro
• News
• Entertainment
• Consumer
• Travel
• Sports
AR
• Mobile (3D enhanced screens)
• Pokemon Go
• Filters (Snapchat, FB, Lumyer)
• Snapdragon/Tango
• Wearable Computing
• ...
Home VR Systems
• Samsung GearVR – 5 Million
• Google Daydream -
• HTC Vive (Room Scale) – 500,000
• Oculus Rift – 250,000...
Path to Success for Home VR
• Awareness
• Most people don’t know about VR
• Cost, Ease of Use
• Plug and Play Products
• P...
Case Study: HTC,
Playing the Long Game
• Address the Exposure Problem
• Vrcades, Franchise Titles
• Nurture Developers and...
Location Based Entertainment (LBE)
• New Vrcades
• IMAX VR
• Viveport
• Tick Tock Unlock
• Free Roam VR
• The Void
• Zero ...
Predictions for June, 2018
• Neither VR nor AR will hit an inflection point
• 360 will become more commonplace
• Snapdrago...
Predictions for June, 2028
• Wearable computing commonplace
• All laptops and cell phones VR/AR Ready
• The Killer App wil...
THANK YOU!
@charliefink
Join the conversation @ARealityEvent & #AWE2017
Charlie Fink's AWE Presentation, June 2, 2017
Charlie Fink's AWE Presentation, June 2, 2017
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Charlie Fink's AWE Presentation, June 2, 2017

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An overview of consumer VR/AR in mid-2017, concluding with short and long term predictions.

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Charlie Fink's AWE Presentation, June 2, 2017

  1. 1. State of Consumer VR & AR and Predictions for 2018 & 2028 Charlie Fink Contributor, Forbes.com Contributing Editor, VR Voice @charliefink Join the conversation @ARealityEvent & #AWE2017
  2. 2. About Me • Contributor, Forbes; Editor, VR Voice • Entrepreneur & Producer • President, AG Interactive 00-04 • SVP, America Online 95-99 • EVP, COO, Virtual World Entertainment 92-95 • VP, Disney 85-92
  3. 3. • AR and VR Represent a Major Paradigm Shift in Computing • Technology succeeds when it makes what we are already doing better, cheaper and faster • Change happens very, very slowly, and then all at once • The killer app is other people Things I Know Are True
  4. 4. • Microsoft – Hololens, Microsoft VR • Apple - iGlass • Facebook – Rift, Oculus Store for Gear • Google – Daydream, Magic Leap • Samsung – GearVR • Sony Playstation VR – Huge Installed Base It’s All About The Guys At The Top of Pyramid
  5. 5. Wild Cards • Magic Leap • Disruptive tech • Apple AR • Wearable (Probably) • Microsoft Hololens • Windows VR • OEM • The dark horse(s) • Meta, ODG, Kopin, Epson Movio, Lenovo, Qualcomm
  6. 6. Early Markets for Consumer Tech Are Driven by Killer Apps • Personal Computer • Online Services (email) • Shopping • Social Media • Smart Phones • Messaging • Photography • Maps • Music/Media
  7. 7. How People Are Exposed to VR • Mobile • Cardboard • GearVR • Work • VRcades • Room Scale • Free Roam • Movies/Pop Culture • The Matrix • Ready Player One
  8. 8. Enterprise Goes First • Military • Design & Construction • Industrial Maintenance • Remote Experts • Medical • Monitor Consolidation • Heads Up Display • Tele surgery • Sales & Marketing
  9. 9. VR/AR Consumer Products • 360 Video • Pro • Consumer • VR • Mobile • Fully Immersive • AR/MR • 3D Mobile Apps • Wearable
  10. 10. 360 Video – The Tip of the Spear • Pro • News • Entertainment • Consumer • Travel • Sports
  11. 11. AR • Mobile (3D enhanced screens) • Pokemon Go • Filters (Snapchat, FB, Lumyer) • Snapdragon/Tango • Wearable Computing • Microsoft Hololens • ODG (wearable android phone) • Apple i-Glass (?)
  12. 12. Home VR Systems • Samsung GearVR – 5 Million • Google Daydream - • HTC Vive (Room Scale) – 500,000 • Oculus Rift – 250,000 • Playstation VR – 400,000
  13. 13. Path to Success for Home VR • Awareness • Most people don’t know about VR • Cost, Ease of Use • Plug and Play Products • Prices still high • Compelling Non-Game content • Social/Telepresence • Improvements in Optics, Ergonomics • Outward facing cameras enable MR • Affordable haptics (touch)
  14. 14. Case Study: HTC, Playing the Long Game • Address the Exposure Problem • Vrcades, Franchise Titles • Nurture Developers and Relationships • Viveport • Help Develop technology ecosystem via Venture Investments • Tools, Haptics, Social, Education, Sports, Entertainment, Games, etc. • Improve Content Quality & Distribution • The Netflix of VR
  15. 15. Location Based Entertainment (LBE) • New Vrcades • IMAX VR • Viveport • Tick Tock Unlock • Free Roam VR • The Void • Zero Latency • Dreamscape • VR LBEs in the 90s • The mundane reality of retail
  16. 16. Predictions for June, 2018 • Neither VR nor AR will hit an inflection point • 360 will become more commonplace • Snapdragon will start to have an impact on AR and mobile VR • Apple Ships iGlass version 1.0 for iPhone 10 • VR Comes to a Mall Near You • More & much improved content for home VR systems • Inter-operability and standards developed • Magic Leap Comes Out, Ships Developer Version in 2018
  17. 17. Predictions for June, 2028 • Wearable computing commonplace • All laptops and cell phones VR/AR Ready • The Killer App will be telepresence (social) • Second most popular VR app: Westword (casual game) • Automated Trucks, Cars, commonplace • AI, IoT, Automation will cause mass unemployment • Medicare for all will pass the Congress • We will need a much, much bigger room
  18. 18. THANK YOU! @charliefink Join the conversation @ARealityEvent & #AWE2017

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