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© Wood Mackenzie 0
Refinery Evaluation Model
Independent Appraisal of Refinery Competitive Position
Refinery Evaluation Model
SATORP’s Jubail Project: The rise of a new wave
of export refineries
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© Wood Mackenzie 1
© Wood Mackenzie 1
Introduction
Jubail (SATORP) is a 400 kb/d greenfield export-orientated refinery built and operated by a JV partnership comprising
French oil major, Total, and Saudi Arabia’s national oil company, Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco). Jubail
(SATORP) is expected to be fully operational by end of 2013.
In May 2006, a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was signed to develop the Jubail Refining and
Petrochemical Project. The plant was built in Jubail Industrial City 2, located on the east coast of the Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia (‘The Kingdom’).
On June 22, 2008, the shareholders, Total (37.5%) and Saudi Aramco (62.5%), signed an agreement to form Saudi
Aramco Total Refining and Petrochemical Company (SATORP), which was officially established on September 21,
2008.
Pre-commissioning began during the first quarter of 2013, with full operation expected by the end of 2013.
The vision for Jubail (SATORP) is to be the Middle East and Asia’s leading performer in refining and petrochemicals
with a passion for the environment.
Project History
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Refinery Evaluation Model, SATORP
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2
Product Export Destination by Region
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Jubail (SATORP)
Asia
Pacific
Europe
Jubail (SATORP) is expected to export refined products to Europe and Asia
Pacific
Note: The thickness of the arrows do not represent any magnitude. They are only to show the direction.
* Exports by Volume represent the split of total volumes exported NOT total refinery output.
Region % Exports by
Volume*
Europe 40
Asia Pacific 60
Diesel, Jet/Kero
Paraxylene, Propylene, LPG, Pet Coke
US export opportunity
diminished due to
domestic tight oil
developments
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Operating
Expense
Configuration
Effect *
Refinery Net Cash Margin (NCM) Methodology, calculated with PetroPlan
Location
Benefit
Crude Oil
Cost
Crude Oil
Transport
$
/
Barrel
+
-
Net Cash Margin (EBITDA) = Gross Margin, $/bbl – Cash Operating Expenses, $/bbl
* Configuration effect is synonymous with Refinery Gross Product Worth (GPW)
Net Cash
Margin
PetroPlan
Delivering commercial insight
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PetroPlan’s Block Flow Diagram (BFD) provides a transparent interface to scrutinize and interpret the
internal optimisation of Jubail (SATORP) refinery.
Utilisation of individual units, internal stream routing, and final product yields are all visible to the
user.
© Wood Mackenzie 4
© Wood Mackenzie 4
PetroPlan – Jubail (SATORP) Block Flow Diagram and Yield Profile
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Refinery Evaluation Model
Jubail (SATORP) Yield Profile, PetroPlan
Product Yield, wt%*
Benzene 0.6
Paraxylene 3.6
Propylene 0.7
LPG 1.5
Gasoline Regular 16.3
Gasoline Premium 6.2
Jet/Kerosene 4.4
Diesel 51.6
Petroleum Coke 9.9
Sulphur 2.0
Refinery Fuel and Loss 3.2
*WM estimates
Delivering commercial insight
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© Wood Mackenzie 5
© Wood Mackenzie 5
Its first quartile position provides Jubail (SATORP) the opportunity to “push”
distillate products into Europe and compete, on a Net Cash Margin basis, with
top European sites…
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Refinery Evaluation Model Note: NCM curve shows European refineries only
* 2012 NCM on a preliminary basis
Delivering commercial insight
www.woodmac.com
© Wood Mackenzie 6
© Wood Mackenzie 6
…. and be well placed to compete with other export oriented refineries in Asia
Pacific
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Refinery Evaluation Model Note: NCM curve shows Asia Pacific refineries only
* 2012 NCM on a preliminary basis
Delivering commercial insight
www.woodmac.com
© Wood Mackenzie 7
© Wood Mackenzie 7
Jubail (SATORP)’s completion will increase Saudi Arabia’s surplus middle
distillate position whilst helping to lower the gasoline deficit in the short term
Saudi Arabia was broadly balanced
diesel/gasoil during 2012
Jubail (SATORP)’s completion will move
the country to a diesel/gasoil surplus of
just over around 8.5 Mt by 2014
The jet/kerosene surplus will increase to
just over 6 Mt over the same period
Gasoline is expected to remain in deficit
territory throughout the forecast period as
local demand outweighs supply; hence
gasoline production from Jubail remains
in country
Post completion of Yanbu(2015) and
Jazan(2017) refineries, Saudi Arabia will
become a significant exporter of middle
distillates
LPG and naphtha will continue to be
exported to Asia Pacific as demand from
the petrochemical industry grows
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Product Markets Service Note: Balances reflect Jubail (SATORP) running at reduced rates during 2013 then fully operational during 2014
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kero Diesel/Gasoil
Balances
(kt)
2012 2013 2014
Surplus
Deficit
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Delivering commercial insight
www.woodmac.com
8
Wood Mackenzie Disclaimer
Strictly Private & Confidential
This report has been prepared by Wood Mackenzie Limited. The report is intended solely for the benefit of
the recipient (sent directly by Wood Mackenzie Ltd) and its contents and conclusions are confidential and
should not be disclosed to any other persons or companies without Wood Mackenzie’s prior written
permission.
The information upon which this report is based has either been supplied to us or comes from our own
experience, knowledge and databases. The opinions expressed in this report are those of Wood Mackenzie.
They have been arrived at following careful consideration and enquiry but we do not guarantee their
fairness, completeness or accuracy. The opinions, as of this date, are subject to change. We do not accept
any liability for your reliance upon them.
Delivering commercial insight
www.woodmac.com
© Wood Mackenzie 9
Global Offices
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
India
Global Contact Details
Europe +44 (0)131 243 4400
Americas +1 713 470 1600
Asia Pacific +65 6518 0800
Email energy@woodmac.com
Website www.woodmac.com
Japan
Malaysia
Russia
Singapore
South Korea
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries.
We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide
clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com

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refinery-evaluation-model.pdf

  • 1. www.woodmac.com Delivering commercial insight © Wood Mackenzie 0 Refinery Evaluation Model Independent Appraisal of Refinery Competitive Position Refinery Evaluation Model SATORP’s Jubail Project: The rise of a new wave of export refineries
  • 2. Delivering commercial insight www.woodmac.com © Wood Mackenzie 1 © Wood Mackenzie 1 Introduction Jubail (SATORP) is a 400 kb/d greenfield export-orientated refinery built and operated by a JV partnership comprising French oil major, Total, and Saudi Arabia’s national oil company, Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco). Jubail (SATORP) is expected to be fully operational by end of 2013. In May 2006, a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was signed to develop the Jubail Refining and Petrochemical Project. The plant was built in Jubail Industrial City 2, located on the east coast of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (‘The Kingdom’). On June 22, 2008, the shareholders, Total (37.5%) and Saudi Aramco (62.5%), signed an agreement to form Saudi Aramco Total Refining and Petrochemical Company (SATORP), which was officially established on September 21, 2008. Pre-commissioning began during the first quarter of 2013, with full operation expected by the end of 2013. The vision for Jubail (SATORP) is to be the Middle East and Asia’s leading performer in refining and petrochemicals with a passion for the environment. Project History Source: Wood Mackenzie, Refinery Evaluation Model, SATORP
  • 3. Delivering commercial insight www.woodmac.com 2 Product Export Destination by Region Source: Wood Mackenzie Jubail (SATORP) Asia Pacific Europe Jubail (SATORP) is expected to export refined products to Europe and Asia Pacific Note: The thickness of the arrows do not represent any magnitude. They are only to show the direction. * Exports by Volume represent the split of total volumes exported NOT total refinery output. Region % Exports by Volume* Europe 40 Asia Pacific 60 Diesel, Jet/Kero Paraxylene, Propylene, LPG, Pet Coke US export opportunity diminished due to domestic tight oil developments
  • 4. Delivering commercial insight www.woodmac.com Operating Expense Configuration Effect * Refinery Net Cash Margin (NCM) Methodology, calculated with PetroPlan Location Benefit Crude Oil Cost Crude Oil Transport $ / Barrel + - Net Cash Margin (EBITDA) = Gross Margin, $/bbl – Cash Operating Expenses, $/bbl * Configuration effect is synonymous with Refinery Gross Product Worth (GPW) Net Cash Margin PetroPlan
  • 5. Delivering commercial insight www.woodmac.com PetroPlan’s Block Flow Diagram (BFD) provides a transparent interface to scrutinize and interpret the internal optimisation of Jubail (SATORP) refinery. Utilisation of individual units, internal stream routing, and final product yields are all visible to the user. © Wood Mackenzie 4 © Wood Mackenzie 4 PetroPlan – Jubail (SATORP) Block Flow Diagram and Yield Profile Source: Wood Mackenzie, Refinery Evaluation Model Jubail (SATORP) Yield Profile, PetroPlan Product Yield, wt%* Benzene 0.6 Paraxylene 3.6 Propylene 0.7 LPG 1.5 Gasoline Regular 16.3 Gasoline Premium 6.2 Jet/Kerosene 4.4 Diesel 51.6 Petroleum Coke 9.9 Sulphur 2.0 Refinery Fuel and Loss 3.2 *WM estimates
  • 6. Delivering commercial insight www.woodmac.com © Wood Mackenzie 5 © Wood Mackenzie 5 Its first quartile position provides Jubail (SATORP) the opportunity to “push” distillate products into Europe and compete, on a Net Cash Margin basis, with top European sites… Source: Wood Mackenzie, Refinery Evaluation Model Note: NCM curve shows European refineries only * 2012 NCM on a preliminary basis
  • 7. Delivering commercial insight www.woodmac.com © Wood Mackenzie 6 © Wood Mackenzie 6 …. and be well placed to compete with other export oriented refineries in Asia Pacific Source: Wood Mackenzie, Refinery Evaluation Model Note: NCM curve shows Asia Pacific refineries only * 2012 NCM on a preliminary basis
  • 8. Delivering commercial insight www.woodmac.com © Wood Mackenzie 7 © Wood Mackenzie 7 Jubail (SATORP)’s completion will increase Saudi Arabia’s surplus middle distillate position whilst helping to lower the gasoline deficit in the short term Saudi Arabia was broadly balanced diesel/gasoil during 2012 Jubail (SATORP)’s completion will move the country to a diesel/gasoil surplus of just over around 8.5 Mt by 2014 The jet/kerosene surplus will increase to just over 6 Mt over the same period Gasoline is expected to remain in deficit territory throughout the forecast period as local demand outweighs supply; hence gasoline production from Jubail remains in country Post completion of Yanbu(2015) and Jazan(2017) refineries, Saudi Arabia will become a significant exporter of middle distillates LPG and naphtha will continue to be exported to Asia Pacific as demand from the petrochemical industry grows Source: Wood Mackenzie, Product Markets Service Note: Balances reflect Jubail (SATORP) running at reduced rates during 2013 then fully operational during 2014 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kero Diesel/Gasoil Balances (kt) 2012 2013 2014 Surplus Deficit Source: Wood Mackenzie
  • 9. Delivering commercial insight www.woodmac.com 8 Wood Mackenzie Disclaimer Strictly Private & Confidential This report has been prepared by Wood Mackenzie Limited. The report is intended solely for the benefit of the recipient (sent directly by Wood Mackenzie Ltd) and its contents and conclusions are confidential and should not be disclosed to any other persons or companies without Wood Mackenzie’s prior written permission. The information upon which this report is based has either been supplied to us or comes from our own experience, knowledge and databases. The opinions expressed in this report are those of Wood Mackenzie. They have been arrived at following careful consideration and enquiry but we do not guarantee their fairness, completeness or accuracy. The opinions, as of this date, are subject to change. We do not accept any liability for your reliance upon them.
  • 10. Delivering commercial insight www.woodmac.com © Wood Mackenzie 9 Global Offices Australia Brazil Canada China India Global Contact Details Europe +44 (0)131 243 4400 Americas +1 713 470 1600 Asia Pacific +65 6518 0800 Email energy@woodmac.com Website www.woodmac.com Japan Malaysia Russia Singapore South Korea United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com