Presentation delivered at UK Caribbean Infrastructure Conference in November 2023.

1. RegulationsandStandards
forClimateResilience
oftheConstructionSector
TheHonTonyGibbs CHB FREng FIStructE
UK Caribbean Infrastructure Conference
24 November 2023, StVincent & the Grenadines

2. What do we know
about global climate change?
SMALL changes in temperature
have HUGE global consequences

3. Hurricane Catarina as it approached the Brazilian shore at
midday on 27 March 2004.
(Illustration courtesy Greg Holland; satellite data courtesy NOAA/University of Wisconsin.)
The first recorded hurricane in the South Atlantic

4. Hurricane Ivan
just before striking
Grenada
Central Pressure 956 mbar
Peak GustWind ~135 mph
“The most intense
hurricane ever recorded so
close to the equator in the
North Atlantic” – NHC

5. A newWorld Surface
Wind Gust Record
was registered at
the Paso Real de San Diego
meteorological station (78317)
in Pinar del Rio, Cuba,
during hurricane Gustav.
The Dines
pressure tube anemometer
recorded a gust of
340 km/h (=211mph).
Hurricane Gustav 2008

7. proportion
number

17. (1958-2008)
(1998-2008)

18. 18
Comparison of H*Wind and BestTrack Wind Speeds
for Hurricane Ivan (2004)
y= 0.9244x
R² =0.6952
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
HWind
Wind
Speed
(kts)
HURDATWindSpeed(kts)
2004HurricaneIvan
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
9/5/04 0:00 9/8/04 0:00 9/11/04 0:00 9/14/04 0:00 9/17/04 0:00
Max.
1-min
Surface
Winds
for
Marine
Exposure
(knot)
Time(UTC)
2004HurricaneIvan
H*Wind
H*WindInterpolatedtoHURDATTimes
BestTrack

19. Comparison of Model and Historical Hurricane Frequencies
by Category in the Eastern Caribbean.
19
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5
Number
of
Hurricanes/Year
Hurricane Category
1900-2007
Model(with 10% wind speed adjustment)

20. Effect of Increasing Annual Frequencies of Category 4 and
5 Hurricanes on the Peak Gust Wind Speeds Hazard Curve
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
10 100 1000 10000
Peak
Gust
Wind
Speed
in
Open
Terrain
(mph)
Return Period (Years)
Hurricane Hazard Based on Current Climate History
Frequencies Multiplied by: Cat 0=1,Cat 1=1,Cat 2=1, Cat 3=1, Cat 4=2, Cat 5=2
Frequencies Multiplied by: Cat 0=1,Cat 1=1,Cat 2=1, Cat 3=1, Cat 4=3, Cat 5=3

21. Percentage Increase in Basic Wind Speed in Eastern Caribbean vs
Percentage Increase in Annual Rates of Cat 4 and 5 Hurricanes
0%
5%
10%
15%
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%
Increase
in
Basic
Wind
Speed
Increase in Annual Frequency of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes
Category II Buildings
Category III and IV Buildings

22. Wind Pressure (kPa) Wind Speed
(m/sec)
qref q100 Vref
Grenada 0.89 1.06 38
St Vincent&
the
Grenadines
0.90 1.09 38
St Lucia 0.90 1.11 38
Dominica 0.93 1.08 39
Montserrat 0.97 1.11 40
St Kitts &
Nevis
0.97 1.06 40
Antigua &
Barbuda
0.94 1.03 40
Anguilla 1.00 1.14 41
British
Virgin
Islands
1.05 1.19 42

23. StVincent
& the Grenadines 155 171

24. 300‐year
700‐year
1700‐year
3000‐year

27. 165‐182 mph gust over land
= Category 4‐5 Hurricane
Hurricane Irma 2017

28. Rising sea levels endangers island nations

29. Settlement Point, Bahamas 0.32 (0.18-0.47) 0.82 (0.43-1.32)
Glbara, Cuba 0.27 (0.14-0.41) 0.74 (0.36-1.22)
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba 0.29 (0.16-0.43) 0.79 (0.41-1.28)
Port Royal, Jamaica 0.30 (0.10-0.51) 0.81 (0.31-1.40)
Port Au Prince, Haiti 0.28 (0.08-0.50) 0.79 (0.29-1.37)
Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic 0.28 (0.07-0.50) 0.77 (0.26-1.37).91)
Magueyes Island, Puerto Rico 0.27 (0.16-0.39) o.76 (0.39-1.24)
Pointe-A-Pitre, Guadeloupe 0.28 (0.08-0.49) 0.78 (0.28-1.37).98)
Puerto Castilla, Honduras 0.35 (0.16-0.55) 0.91 (0.41-1.49}
Puerto Limon, Costa Rica 0.27 (0.13-0.43) 0.76 (0.34-1.30)
Cristobal, Panama 0.31(0.19-0.43) 0.82 (0.47-1.31)
Location 2050 2100
Probabilistic sea-level projections assuming unabated emissions.
Median values given with credible intervals (5th- 95th percentiles) in
parentheses. Units of meters. – Benjamin Strauss and Scott Kulp

30. MaximumWave Heights (50‐year return)
CDMP
9 N
89.5
W
23 N
59
W
Wave Heights
Meters
Feet
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
5 10 15 20 25

31. Maximum Storm Surge (50‐year return)
Surge Heights
1 2 3 4 5 6
5 10 15 20
Meters
Feet
USAID-OAS CDMP

32. Ross Wagenseil
for CDMP
January 2000
15.8 N
89.25
W
87.25
W
18.6 N
CDMP
10Year
Return
Ross Wagenseil
for CDMP
January 2000
15.8 N
89.25
W
87.25
W
18.6 N
CDMP
25Year
Return
Ross Wagenseil
for CDMP
January 2000
15.8 N
89.25
W
87.25
W
18.6 N
CDMP
50Year
Return
15.8 N
89.25
W
87.25
W
18.6 N
CDMP
100Year
Return
Surge Heights
1 2 3 4 5 6
5 10 15 20
Meters
Feet
Belize Surge
The many low Cays of
Belize are quite
vulnerable to waves and
surge, and the low coast
of the northern half of
the country is easily
flooded.
USAID‐OAS CDMP

33. FEMA

34. Final Run‐up Values (m) for a Realistic Event at Kick ‘em Jenny
(Smith and Shepherd 1992)

35. TsunamiTravelTimes from Kick ‘em Jenny Source
(Smith and Shepherd 1992)

36. 1st November 1755
Lisbon Earthquake
tele-tsunami

37. The Rainfall Threat
Prolonged DROUGHTS
in some regions and
heavier PRECIPITATION
in others?

38. The Rainfall Threat
Reduced fresh water
for a large portion of
humankind?

39. Whereas an
overall drying or
wetter trend is
not evident, the
number of dry
days between
rain events is
increasing, and
when rain
occurs it tends
to be heavier
PRECIS-Caribbean Project – Partners: UWI, (Mona, Cave Hill) INSMET, AdeKUS,
5C’s, ONAMET, Hadley Centre (UK)
1961-2010 1986-2010

40. General
tendency for
drying (main
Caribbean basin)
by end of the
century. Drying
between 25%
and 30%
Possibly wetter far north Caribbean. Drying exceeds
natural variability June-October – wet season dryer!
PRECIS-Caribbean Project – Partners: UWI, (Mona, Cave Hill) INSMET, AdeKUS,
5C’s, ONAMET, Hadley Centre (UK)

41. The Rainfall Threat
(additional impacts)
Soil amplification of
earthquake ground shaking
is likely to be more
pervasive?

42. The Rainfall Threat
(additional impacts)
Landslides triggered in
earthquakes and severe
rainstorms are likely to be
more pervasive?.

44. y = 21.178ln(x) + 8.9237
R² = 0.9647
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 10 100
Rainfall
Intensities
(mm/hr)
Return Period (T)
Guyana Rainfall 30min‐IDF Curve
30 minute IDF Curve Log. (30 minute IDF Curve)

45. St Vincent – E T Joshua Airport
Return
period
(years)
Duration (minutes)
1440 720 360 120 60 30 15 10 5
Rainfall intensity (mm/hour)
2 4.0 6.5 10.4 21.8 35.0 55.9 89.5 117.9 188.6
5 5.8 9.1 14.4 29.5 46.6 73.5 115.9 151.2 238.5
10 7.3 11.3 17.7 35.7 55.7 86.9 135.6 175.9 274.5
15 8.2 12.8 19.8 39.6 61.3 95.0 147.3 190.3 294.9
25 9.6 14.8 22.7 45.0 69.1 106.3 163.4 210.2 323.3
50 11.8 18.0 27.4 53.4 81.4 124.0 188.8 241.5 367.8
St Vincent – E T Joshua Airport
Return
period
(years)
Duration (minutes)
1440 720 360 120 60 30 15 10 5
Rainfall intensity (mm/hour)
2 4.0 6.5 10.4 21.8 35.0 55.9 89.5 117.9 188.6
5 5.8 9.1 14.4 29.5 46.6 73.5 115.9 151.2 238.5
10 7.3 11.3 17.7 35.7 55.7 86.9 135.6 175.9 274.5
15 8.2 12.8 19.8 39.6 61.3 95.0 147.3 190.3 294.9
25 9.6 14.8 22.7 45.0 69.1 106.3 163.4 210.2 323.3
50 11.8 18.0 27.4 53.4 81.4 124.0 188.8 241.5 367.8

46. Farrell CIMH

47. Montserrat – Volcano Observatory North
Duration (minutes)
(years)
period
Return
5
10
15
30
60
120
360
720
1440
Rainfall intensity (mm/hour)
154
99.7
77.3
50
32.4
21
10.5
6.8
4.4
2
164.5
109.8
86.6
57.8
38.6
25.8
13.6
9.1
6
5
171
116.9
93.6
64
43.7
29.9
16.4
11.2
7.7
10
174.7
121.2
97.9
67.9
47.1
32.7
18.3
12.7
8.8
15
179.6
127
103.7
73.3
51.9
36.7
21.2
15
10.6
25
186.6
135.6
112.5
81.7
59.4
42.2
26
18.9
13.7
50

49. Jamaica

50. Maximum recorded intensity for
given durations for 7 stations in
Belize together with IDF curves for
Miami for 2, 10, 50 and 100 year
return periods – CHaRIM Project

52. H RWallingford and CIMH

53. H RWallingford and CIMH

55. Bahamas
Cayman
Montserrat
StVincent
Trinidad &Tobago
IDF curves
IDF curves and
flood hazard maps
H RWallingford and CIMH

56. Conceptualization of climate change impacts on the theoretical design
compromise for typical urban infrastructure. (Jean‐Luc Martel et al)

59. Management Carbon (Mc)
the off‐site cost of managing the delivery of a
project – customer, consultants, contractors,
etc

60. Embodied Carbon (Ec)
the carbon impact of the extraction,
production and assembly of the raw
materials and components of a project
Carib Cement Company

61. Construction Carbon (Cc)
the carbon input required to assemble the
building on site
StVincent Port Expansion

62. Operating Carbon (Oc)
the cost of operating and maintaining the
building through its working life
APUA RO Plant

63. Deconstruction Carbon (Dc)
the impact of taking apart the building at the
end of its life, and recovering materials for
reuse or recycling, land‐filling or other
disposal

64. Source: Partially adapted from A Quick Reference Guide for Teams to
Reduce their Project’s Embodied Carbon, International Living Future
Institute, 2020.

65. Six Stages of Carbon Reduction in Construction Projects:
1. Predesign & Site Selection

66. Six Stages of Carbon Reduction in Construction Projects:
2. Conceptual & Schematic Design

69. Six Stages of Carbon Reduction in Construction Projects:
3. Design Development
& Construction Documents

70. Six Stages of Carbon Reduction in Construction Projects:
4. Bidding & Procurement

71. Six Stages of Carbon Reduction in Construction Projects:
5. Construction

72. Six Stages of Carbon Reduction in Construction Projects:
6. Occupancy:
Maintenance, Renovations &Tenant Fit‐Outs