MCX CRUDE OIL as seen in the monthly chart opened at 2475 levels and made low of 1902 levels. During this period prices corrected & made high of 2566 levels finally closed at 2288 levels. Now, there are chances of further downward movement technically & fundamentally.

1. COMMODITY SPECIAL REPORT
FEBRUARY
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2. Despite the unlikely scenario of supply cutbacks in the oil market, prices have found some
support above $30 a barrel. We believe this basis is fragile, with fundamentals expected to
weaken in the coming weeks," ANZ said on Friday.
Oil Prices Soar as Russia Could Cut Production by 500,000 Barrels per Day. On Thursday,
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia was ready to take part in an
OPEC meeting together with other non-cartel countries.
The Head of Russia's Transnet energy company Nikolay Tokarev stated that Saudi Arabia
had proposed holding a meeting on the state on global oil market. According to Tokarev,
OPEC is likely to hold the meeting in February, with oil production decrease on the agenda.
Market prices for crude benchmarks dropped to a 12-year low in mid-January, sliding below
the historic level of $30 a barrel before starting to recover after January 20.
Crude accelerated higher after Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak revealed the
proposed reductions in output, which would amount to about 500,000 barrels a day of cuts
by Russia, one of the largest producers outside OPEC.
If implemented, the output reductions could help ease a supply glut that caused oil prices to
fall more than 60 percent since mid-2014. Prices hit their lowest level for more than 12 years
last week.
The report showed that production from OPEC fell by 130,000 barrels a day in December
from a month earlier, to 32.28 million barrels a day, according to a Platt’s survey of OPEC
oil industry officials and analysts released Friday. Platt’s attributed the decline to output
cuts in Iraq, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis lowered output by 50,000 barrels a day
to 10.1 million barrels a day.
After keeping US interest rates unchanged as expected, Fed policymakers said the economy
was still on track for moderate growth and a stronger labor market even with "gradual"
rate increases, suggesting its concern about global events had diminished but not squashed
chances of a rate hike in March.
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FUNDAMENTALS

3. Monthly Oil Market Report: BY OPEC
• Monday, 18 January
• Wednesday, 10 February
• Monday, 14 March
• Wednesday, 13 April
• Friday, 13 May
• Monday, 13 June
• Tuesday, 12 July
• Wednesday, 10 August
• Monday, 12 September
• Wednesday, 12 October
• Friday, 11 November
• Wednesday, 14 December
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4. MCX CRUDE OIL as seen in the monthly chart opened at 2475 levels and made low of 1902 levels.
During this period prices corrected & made high of 2566 levels finally closed at 2288 levels. Now,
there are chances of further downward movement technically & fundamentally.
Technical view: Crude oil has broken the support for down side near 2550, MACD
indicator also indicating down trend.
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TECHNICAL CHART

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