SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 6
Download to read offline
Sample RMBS Analysis
September 2013
Ricardo Diaz – Head of Fixed Income Pete Vaky
rdiaz@figpartners.com pvaky@figpartners.com
Brian Zwerner Sean McGlynn
bzwerner@figpartners.com smcglynn@figpartners.com
Tim Horton Chris Wood
thorton@figpartners.com cwood@figpartners.com
Megan Levine Amanda Havriluk
mlevine@figpartners.com ahavriluk@figpartners.com
(404) 601 7248
2
Methodology for RMBS Analysis
 FIG Partners, LLC utilizes an in-depth analysis to produce cash flows for each RBS security that is
evaluated. A review is completed of the collateral and historical performance on each security. The
results are then compared to norms established for each product type and vintage and adjustments
are made as necessary. A prepayment rate (CPR), default rate (CDR) and severity rate is calculated
for each bond as detailed below:
 The prepayment rate (CPR) is determined by looking at certain collateral characteristics
(i.e., conforming loans, current mortgage rates and interest rates on underlying loans) and
examining the historical prepayment levels.
 The default rate (CDR) is set by using a roll rate process which incorporates an
expectation for each performance bucket (Current, 30 day, 60 day, 90+ day, bankrupt,
foreclosure, REO) to predict the probability of an ultimate default on that bucket. The roll
rate is evaluating using the historical performance of a range of loan attributes which
included CLTV, FICO, Loan Type, Vintage, and Geographic Concentrations.
 The Loss Severity is determined by evaluating the pool characteristics and actual loss
severities across the collateral over varying historical periods.
 For all securities, we then utilize a vector approach that accounts for our expectation that the U.S.
housing market will begin to normalize and eventually recover somewhat starting in approximately
two-years. This approach is reflected in an increase in voluntary prepayment speeds, coupled with a
moderation in loss rates and severities.
3
Methodology for RMBS Analysis
Once cash flows are created using the pricing parameters for each security, a Market Yield level is
then calculated for each bond as defined below.
Market Yield: the yield for a security corresponding to the price expected in the current
market environment. This is calculated by identifying similar securities based on a number
of attributes from a database of securities offerings and trading levels maintained by FIG
Partners.
Each security is then priced in a cash flow model to determine the Market Price. We then evaluate to
determine if there is an expected principal writedown. For these securities, we then calculate the Other
Than Temporary Impairment (OTTI) if any through a discounted cash flow model.
4
Projected Cash Flows, FMV and OTTI – ARMT 2005-12 3A1
The bond was priced with the following parameters:
CPR: 8% for 2 years, then 10% thereafter
CDR: 10% for 2 years, then 7.5% thereafter
Severity: 55% for 2 years, then 50% thereafter
The bond is expected to take a writedown under our base case scenario.
The discounted cash flow price is above the book price, thus no additional OTTI is appropriate.
Date Balance Int Pymt Prin Pymt Loss
1/3/2013 5,447,739 - - -
8/25/2013 4,693,395 94,831 550,178 204,166
8/25/2014 3,741,127 112,538 696,395 255,873
8/25/2015 2,983,224 91,442 595,258 162,645
8/25/2016 2,372,898 78,491 498,572 111,755
8/25/2017 1,880,571 70,820 402,344 89,983
8/25/2018 1,483,911 62,959 324,261 72,399
8/25/2019 1,164,085 53,793 261,644 58,183
8/25/2020 906,265 44,488 211,146 46,674
8/25/2021 698,808 36,133 170,105 37,351
8/25/2022 532,289 28,734 136,716 29,804
8/25/2023 399,144 22,464 109,448 23,697
8/25/2024 293,161 17,028 87,221 18,762
8/25/2025 209,333 12,410 69,053 14,776
8/25/2026 143,734 8,765 54,037 11,561
8/25/2027 93,143 5,820 41,616 8,975
8/25/2028 55,620 3,578 30,623 6,900
8/25/2029 28,895 2,002 21,485 5,239
8/25/2030 10,678 920 14,299 3,918
8/25/2031 - 222 8,154 2,524
SUM 747,440 4,282,554 1,165,184
CUSIP Curr Par Value Book Value
2254W0MH5 5,447,739 4,238,341
Book Price Book Yld DCF Price
77.80 3.85% 78.62
5
Disclaimer
Confidentiality Agreement / Legal Disclaimer
This presentation (the “Presentation”) is being furnished on a confidential basis to a limited number of sophisticated investors on a “one-on-
one” basis for informational and discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any
security. The information set forth herein does not purport to be complete and is subject to change.
The information contained herein does not purport to contain all of the information that may be required to evaluate any securities or other
opportunities and any recipient hereof is encouraged and should conduct its own independent analysis of the data referred to herein. FIG
Partners, LLC (“FIG”) and its affiliates disclaim any and all liability as to the information set forth herein or omissions here from, including,
without limitation any express or implied representation or warranty with respect to such information.
Certain information contained herein (including targets, forward-looking statements, economic and market information) has been obtained
from published sources and/or prepared by third parties and in certain cases has not been updated through the date hereof. While such
sources are believed to be reliable, none of FIG or any of their respective affiliates or employees assume any responsibility for the accuracy or
completeness of such information.
Each party should seek advice based on its particular circumstances from an independent tax advisor. The use of this Presentation in certain
jurisdictions may be restricted by law. The products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, nor
suitable for all types of investors; their value and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates,
interest rates, or other factors. All parties should inform themselves as to the legal requirements and tax consequences of an investment in the
products mentioned herein within the countries of their citizenship, residence, domicile and place of business.
No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the written permission of FIG. Information in this document has been
obtained from various sources; we do not represent that this information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.
Certain information contained in this report constitutes “forward-looking statements,” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking
terminology such as “may,” “will,” “seek,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue” or “believe” or the
negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the
actual performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.
To ensure compliance with Internal Revenue Service Circular 230, you are hereby notified that any discussion of tax matters set forth herein
was not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used by any party, for the purposes of avoiding penalties that may be imposed.
6
For More Information – Contact FIG Partners
1175 Peachtree Street 350 S. Figueroa Street
100 Colony Square, Suite 2250 Suite 550
Atlanta, GA 30361 Los Angeles, CA 90071
(404) 601-7200 866-FIG-BNKS

More Related Content

What's hot

Four moment risk decomposition presentation
Four moment risk decomposition presentationFour moment risk decomposition presentation
Four moment risk decomposition presentationPeter Urbani
 
Counterparty credit risk. general review
Counterparty credit risk. general reviewCounterparty credit risk. general review
Counterparty credit risk. general reviewRoman Kornyliuk
 
Credit Management Practices of BDBL
Credit Management Practices of BDBLCredit Management Practices of BDBL
Credit Management Practices of BDBLKhan Tanjeel Ahmed
 
San Luis Obispo County Investment Pool
San Luis Obispo County Investment PoolSan Luis Obispo County Investment Pool
San Luis Obispo County Investment PoolDaniel Rodriguez
 
Credit and financial risk analysis
Credit and financial risk analysisCredit and financial risk analysis
Credit and financial risk analysisMuhammadkhalid
 
Policy & procedural guidelines on crm(final)
Policy & procedural guidelines on crm(final)Policy & procedural guidelines on crm(final)
Policy & procedural guidelines on crm(final)Shemanto Dulon
 
Changes to the Accounting for Interest Rate Swaps Used in Hedging Relationshi...
Changes to the Accounting for Interest Rate Swaps Used in Hedging Relationshi...Changes to the Accounting for Interest Rate Swaps Used in Hedging Relationshi...
Changes to the Accounting for Interest Rate Swaps Used in Hedging Relationshi...MHM (Mayer Hoffman McCann P.C.)
 
Futurum Training : FINANCE FOR REAL ESTATE Professionals
Futurum Training : FINANCE FOR REAL ESTATE ProfessionalsFuturum Training : FINANCE FOR REAL ESTATE Professionals
Futurum Training : FINANCE FOR REAL ESTATE Professionalsmputrawal
 
S&p view of uae new regulation 8 jun15
S&p view of uae new regulation 8 jun15S&p view of uae new regulation 8 jun15
S&p view of uae new regulation 8 jun15Aftab Hasan
 
Loan Modifcications by a CPA
Loan Modifcications by a CPALoan Modifcications by a CPA
Loan Modifcications by a CPAy2kvettes
 
Compass Undervalued Top Picks Portfolio Series 3 Prospectus
Compass Undervalued Top Picks Portfolio Series 3 ProspectusCompass Undervalued Top Picks Portfolio Series 3 Prospectus
Compass Undervalued Top Picks Portfolio Series 3 ProspectusGregg Strohkorb, CFA
 
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Key information memorandumIDFC Sterling Value Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Key information memorandumIDFCJUBI
 
49571 building investment portfolios
49571   building investment portfolios49571   building investment portfolios
49571 building investment portfoliosavatenna
 
Introduction to fixed income securities
Introduction to fixed income securitiesIntroduction to fixed income securities
Introduction to fixed income securitiesSameen Zaidi
 

What's hot (18)

Four moment risk decomposition presentation
Four moment risk decomposition presentationFour moment risk decomposition presentation
Four moment risk decomposition presentation
 
Structured cash-flows-brochure-6.9.14
Structured cash-flows-brochure-6.9.14Structured cash-flows-brochure-6.9.14
Structured cash-flows-brochure-6.9.14
 
Counterparty credit risk. general review
Counterparty credit risk. general reviewCounterparty credit risk. general review
Counterparty credit risk. general review
 
The Art of Credit Management
The Art of Credit ManagementThe Art of Credit Management
The Art of Credit Management
 
Credit Management Practices of BDBL
Credit Management Practices of BDBLCredit Management Practices of BDBL
Credit Management Practices of BDBL
 
San Luis Obispo County Investment Pool
San Luis Obispo County Investment PoolSan Luis Obispo County Investment Pool
San Luis Obispo County Investment Pool
 
Understanding the Qualified Mortgage (QM) Final Rule from CFPB under Dodd–Frank
Understanding the Qualified Mortgage (QM) Final Rule from CFPB under Dodd–FrankUnderstanding the Qualified Mortgage (QM) Final Rule from CFPB under Dodd–Frank
Understanding the Qualified Mortgage (QM) Final Rule from CFPB under Dodd–Frank
 
Credit and financial risk analysis
Credit and financial risk analysisCredit and financial risk analysis
Credit and financial risk analysis
 
Policy & procedural guidelines on crm(final)
Policy & procedural guidelines on crm(final)Policy & procedural guidelines on crm(final)
Policy & procedural guidelines on crm(final)
 
Changes to the Accounting for Interest Rate Swaps Used in Hedging Relationshi...
Changes to the Accounting for Interest Rate Swaps Used in Hedging Relationshi...Changes to the Accounting for Interest Rate Swaps Used in Hedging Relationshi...
Changes to the Accounting for Interest Rate Swaps Used in Hedging Relationshi...
 
Futurum Training : FINANCE FOR REAL ESTATE Professionals
Futurum Training : FINANCE FOR REAL ESTATE ProfessionalsFuturum Training : FINANCE FOR REAL ESTATE Professionals
Futurum Training : FINANCE FOR REAL ESTATE Professionals
 
S&p view of uae new regulation 8 jun15
S&p view of uae new regulation 8 jun15S&p view of uae new regulation 8 jun15
S&p view of uae new regulation 8 jun15
 
Business Credit Risk Management
Business Credit Risk ManagementBusiness Credit Risk Management
Business Credit Risk Management
 
Loan Modifcications by a CPA
Loan Modifcications by a CPALoan Modifcications by a CPA
Loan Modifcications by a CPA
 
Compass Undervalued Top Picks Portfolio Series 3 Prospectus
Compass Undervalued Top Picks Portfolio Series 3 ProspectusCompass Undervalued Top Picks Portfolio Series 3 Prospectus
Compass Undervalued Top Picks Portfolio Series 3 Prospectus
 
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Key information memorandumIDFC Sterling Value Fund_Key information memorandum
IDFC Sterling Value Fund_Key information memorandum
 
49571 building investment portfolios
49571   building investment portfolios49571   building investment portfolios
49571 building investment portfolios
 
Introduction to fixed income securities
Introduction to fixed income securitiesIntroduction to fixed income securities
Introduction to fixed income securities
 

Similar to FIG Partners sample RMBS analysis

20130417 - Winged Foot Capital - How to diligence a quant strategy_d2.pdf
20130417 - Winged Foot Capital - How to diligence a quant strategy_d2.pdf20130417 - Winged Foot Capital - How to diligence a quant strategy_d2.pdf
20130417 - Winged Foot Capital - How to diligence a quant strategy_d2.pdfRam Ahluwalia, CFA
 
Beat FDs with US Treasuries | Century Financial
Beat FDs with US Treasuries | Century FinancialBeat FDs with US Treasuries | Century Financial
Beat FDs with US Treasuries | Century Financialrayanwarner
 
Beat FDs with US Treasuries | Century Financial
Beat FDs with US Treasuries | Century FinancialBeat FDs with US Treasuries | Century Financial
Beat FDs with US Treasuries | Century Financialrayanwarner
 
Earnings presentation q4fy2019-01_en
Earnings presentation q4fy2019-01_enEarnings presentation q4fy2019-01_en
Earnings presentation q4fy2019-01_env s
 
Callaway Golf: One Man's Restructuring is Another Man's Revenue
Callaway Golf: One Man's Restructuring is Another Man's RevenueCallaway Golf: One Man's Restructuring is Another Man's Revenue
Callaway Golf: One Man's Restructuring is Another Man's RevenueForward View Consulting
 
September 2019 Investor Presentation
September 2019 Investor PresentationSeptember 2019 Investor Presentation
September 2019 Investor PresentationNermin Bibic
 
Everything Blockchain Presentation - September 2022
Everything Blockchain Presentation - September 2022Everything Blockchain Presentation - September 2022
Everything Blockchain Presentation - September 2022RedChip Companies, Inc.
 
Silvergate Bank Results Presentation Deck Jan 2023.pdf
Silvergate Bank Results Presentation Deck Jan 2023.pdfSilvergate Bank Results Presentation Deck Jan 2023.pdf
Silvergate Bank Results Presentation Deck Jan 2023.pdfBryann Alexandros
 
Bragg Gaming Group Investor Deck May 2021
Bragg Gaming Group Investor Deck May 2021Bragg Gaming Group Investor Deck May 2021
Bragg Gaming Group Investor Deck May 2021RedChip Companies, Inc.
 
Cpi card group investor presentation march 2016
Cpi card group investor presentation march 2016Cpi card group investor presentation march 2016
Cpi card group investor presentation march 2016cpi2016ir
 

Similar to FIG Partners sample RMBS analysis (20)

20130417 - Winged Foot Capital - How to diligence a quant strategy_d2.pdf
20130417 - Winged Foot Capital - How to diligence a quant strategy_d2.pdf20130417 - Winged Foot Capital - How to diligence a quant strategy_d2.pdf
20130417 - Winged Foot Capital - How to diligence a quant strategy_d2.pdf
 
Beat FDs with US Treasuries | Century Financial
Beat FDs with US Treasuries | Century FinancialBeat FDs with US Treasuries | Century Financial
Beat FDs with US Treasuries | Century Financial
 
Beat FDs with US Treasuries | Century Financial
Beat FDs with US Treasuries | Century FinancialBeat FDs with US Treasuries | Century Financial
Beat FDs with US Treasuries | Century Financial
 
Big 5 Sporting Goods Competition Waning
Big 5 Sporting Goods Competition WaningBig 5 Sporting Goods Competition Waning
Big 5 Sporting Goods Competition Waning
 
Earnings presentation q4fy2019-01_en
Earnings presentation q4fy2019-01_enEarnings presentation q4fy2019-01_en
Earnings presentation q4fy2019-01_en
 
Callaway Golf: One Man's Restructuring is Another Man's Revenue
Callaway Golf: One Man's Restructuring is Another Man's RevenueCallaway Golf: One Man's Restructuring is Another Man's Revenue
Callaway Golf: One Man's Restructuring is Another Man's Revenue
 
캐피탈 Jp
캐피탈 Jp캐피탈 Jp
캐피탈 Jp
 
Tenet Q1 2022 Investor Presentation
Tenet Q1 2022 Investor PresentationTenet Q1 2022 Investor Presentation
Tenet Q1 2022 Investor Presentation
 
September 2019 Investor Presentation
September 2019 Investor PresentationSeptember 2019 Investor Presentation
September 2019 Investor Presentation
 
EBZT Presentation
EBZT PresentationEBZT Presentation
EBZT Presentation
 
Everything Blockchain Presentation - September 2022
Everything Blockchain Presentation - September 2022Everything Blockchain Presentation - September 2022
Everything Blockchain Presentation - September 2022
 
Bragg Investor Deck January 2021
Bragg Investor Deck January 2021Bragg Investor Deck January 2021
Bragg Investor Deck January 2021
 
Silvergate Bank Results Presentation Deck Jan 2023.pdf
Silvergate Bank Results Presentation Deck Jan 2023.pdfSilvergate Bank Results Presentation Deck Jan 2023.pdf
Silvergate Bank Results Presentation Deck Jan 2023.pdf
 
Inheritance, Retirement & Cash Flow
Inheritance, Retirement & Cash FlowInheritance, Retirement & Cash Flow
Inheritance, Retirement & Cash Flow
 
DeFi Technologies Deck
DeFi Technologies Deck DeFi Technologies Deck
DeFi Technologies Deck
 
Bragg Gaming Group Investor Deck May 2021
Bragg Gaming Group Investor Deck May 2021Bragg Gaming Group Investor Deck May 2021
Bragg Gaming Group Investor Deck May 2021
 
Cpi card group investor presentation march 2016
Cpi card group investor presentation march 2016Cpi card group investor presentation march 2016
Cpi card group investor presentation march 2016
 
Loan Against Property
Loan Against PropertyLoan Against Property
Loan Against Property
 
Loan Against Property
Loan Against PropertyLoan Against Property
Loan Against Property
 
Loan Against Shares
Loan Against SharesLoan Against Shares
Loan Against Shares
 

More from Brian Zwerner

The Different Types of Fixed-Income Securities
The Different Types of Fixed-Income SecuritiesThe Different Types of Fixed-Income Securities
The Different Types of Fixed-Income SecuritiesBrian Zwerner
 
Brian Zwerner's Kensington Blake Capital entity begins investing with Prosper
Brian Zwerner's Kensington Blake Capital entity begins investing with ProsperBrian Zwerner's Kensington Blake Capital entity begins investing with Prosper
Brian Zwerner's Kensington Blake Capital entity begins investing with ProsperBrian Zwerner
 
Brian Zwerner - PRUMC Sports
Brian Zwerner - PRUMC SportsBrian Zwerner - PRUMC Sports
Brian Zwerner - PRUMC SportsBrian Zwerner
 
Spotlight on TeamNYO's Pink Out Campaign Coming this October
Spotlight on TeamNYO's Pink Out Campaign Coming this OctoberSpotlight on TeamNYO's Pink Out Campaign Coming this October
Spotlight on TeamNYO's Pink Out Campaign Coming this OctoberBrian Zwerner
 
Brian Zwerner - Fixed Income Securities
Brian Zwerner - Fixed Income SecuritiesBrian Zwerner - Fixed Income Securities
Brian Zwerner - Fixed Income SecuritiesBrian Zwerner
 
Using Guideposts for Investment Risk Management
Using Guideposts for Investment Risk ManagementUsing Guideposts for Investment Risk Management
Using Guideposts for Investment Risk ManagementBrian Zwerner
 
Understanding Pass-through Mortgage Securities
Understanding Pass-through Mortgage SecuritiesUnderstanding Pass-through Mortgage Securities
Understanding Pass-through Mortgage SecuritiesBrian Zwerner
 
CDO market primer by Kensington Blake Capital
CDO market primer by Kensington Blake CapitalCDO market primer by Kensington Blake Capital
CDO market primer by Kensington Blake CapitalBrian Zwerner
 
Fig partners fi overview 2.24.14
Fig partners fi overview 2.24.14Fig partners fi overview 2.24.14
Fig partners fi overview 2.24.14Brian Zwerner
 

More from Brian Zwerner (9)

The Different Types of Fixed-Income Securities
The Different Types of Fixed-Income SecuritiesThe Different Types of Fixed-Income Securities
The Different Types of Fixed-Income Securities
 
Brian Zwerner's Kensington Blake Capital entity begins investing with Prosper
Brian Zwerner's Kensington Blake Capital entity begins investing with ProsperBrian Zwerner's Kensington Blake Capital entity begins investing with Prosper
Brian Zwerner's Kensington Blake Capital entity begins investing with Prosper
 
Brian Zwerner - PRUMC Sports
Brian Zwerner - PRUMC SportsBrian Zwerner - PRUMC Sports
Brian Zwerner - PRUMC Sports
 
Spotlight on TeamNYO's Pink Out Campaign Coming this October
Spotlight on TeamNYO's Pink Out Campaign Coming this OctoberSpotlight on TeamNYO's Pink Out Campaign Coming this October
Spotlight on TeamNYO's Pink Out Campaign Coming this October
 
Brian Zwerner - Fixed Income Securities
Brian Zwerner - Fixed Income SecuritiesBrian Zwerner - Fixed Income Securities
Brian Zwerner - Fixed Income Securities
 
Using Guideposts for Investment Risk Management
Using Guideposts for Investment Risk ManagementUsing Guideposts for Investment Risk Management
Using Guideposts for Investment Risk Management
 
Understanding Pass-through Mortgage Securities
Understanding Pass-through Mortgage SecuritiesUnderstanding Pass-through Mortgage Securities
Understanding Pass-through Mortgage Securities
 
CDO market primer by Kensington Blake Capital
CDO market primer by Kensington Blake CapitalCDO market primer by Kensington Blake Capital
CDO market primer by Kensington Blake Capital
 
Fig partners fi overview 2.24.14
Fig partners fi overview 2.24.14Fig partners fi overview 2.24.14
Fig partners fi overview 2.24.14
 

Recently uploaded

Call Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116 - With room Service
Call Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116  - With room ServiceCall Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116  - With room Service
Call Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116 - With room Servicediscovermytutordmt
 
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Howrah 👉 8250192130 Available With Room
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Howrah 👉 8250192130  Available With RoomVIP Kolkata Call Girl Howrah 👉 8250192130  Available With Room
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Howrah 👉 8250192130 Available With Roomdivyansh0kumar0
 
Call Girls In Radisson Blu Hotel New Delhi Paschim Vihar ❤️8860477959 Escorts...
Call Girls In Radisson Blu Hotel New Delhi Paschim Vihar ❤️8860477959 Escorts...Call Girls In Radisson Blu Hotel New Delhi Paschim Vihar ❤️8860477959 Escorts...
Call Girls In Radisson Blu Hotel New Delhi Paschim Vihar ❤️8860477959 Escorts...lizamodels9
 
rishikeshgirls.in- Rishikesh call girl.pdf
rishikeshgirls.in- Rishikesh call girl.pdfrishikeshgirls.in- Rishikesh call girl.pdf
rishikeshgirls.in- Rishikesh call girl.pdfmuskan1121w
 
VIP Call Girl Jamshedpur Aashi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service Jamshedpur
VIP Call Girl Jamshedpur Aashi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service JamshedpurVIP Call Girl Jamshedpur Aashi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service Jamshedpur
VIP Call Girl Jamshedpur Aashi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service JamshedpurSuhani Kapoor
 
Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
Regression analysis:  Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear RegressionRegression analysis:  Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear RegressionRavindra Nath Shukla
 
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSMMonte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSMRavindra Nath Shukla
 
RE Capital's Visionary Leadership under Newman Leech
RE Capital's Visionary Leadership under Newman LeechRE Capital's Visionary Leadership under Newman Leech
RE Capital's Visionary Leadership under Newman LeechNewman George Leech
 
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A SALESMAN / WOMAN
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A  SALESMAN / WOMANA DAY IN THE LIFE OF A  SALESMAN / WOMAN
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A SALESMAN / WOMANIlamathiKannappan
 
BEST Call Girls In Old Faridabad ✨ 9773824855 ✨ Escorts Service In Delhi Ncr,
BEST Call Girls In Old Faridabad ✨ 9773824855 ✨ Escorts Service In Delhi Ncr,BEST Call Girls In Old Faridabad ✨ 9773824855 ✨ Escorts Service In Delhi Ncr,
BEST Call Girls In Old Faridabad ✨ 9773824855 ✨ Escorts Service In Delhi Ncr,noida100girls
 
Call Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine Service
Call Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine ServiceCall Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine Service
Call Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine Serviceritikaroy0888
 
Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...
Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...
Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...Dave Litwiller
 
Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...
Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...
Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...lizamodels9
 
Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...
Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...
Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...lizamodels9
 
0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdf
0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdf0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdf
0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdfRenandantas16
 
Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023
Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023
Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023Neil Kimberley
 
Eni 2024 1Q Results - 24.04.24 business.
Eni 2024 1Q Results - 24.04.24 business.Eni 2024 1Q Results - 24.04.24 business.
Eni 2024 1Q Results - 24.04.24 business.Eni
 
/:Call Girls In Jaypee Siddharth - 5 Star Hotel New Delhi ➥9990211544 Top Esc...
/:Call Girls In Jaypee Siddharth - 5 Star Hotel New Delhi ➥9990211544 Top Esc.../:Call Girls In Jaypee Siddharth - 5 Star Hotel New Delhi ➥9990211544 Top Esc...
/:Call Girls In Jaypee Siddharth - 5 Star Hotel New Delhi ➥9990211544 Top Esc...lizamodels9
 
2024 Numerator Consumer Study of Cannabis Usage
2024 Numerator Consumer Study of Cannabis Usage2024 Numerator Consumer Study of Cannabis Usage
2024 Numerator Consumer Study of Cannabis UsageNeil Kimberley
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Call Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116 - With room Service
Call Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116  - With room ServiceCall Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116  - With room Service
Call Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116 - With room Service
 
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Howrah 👉 8250192130 Available With Room
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Howrah 👉 8250192130  Available With RoomVIP Kolkata Call Girl Howrah 👉 8250192130  Available With Room
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Howrah 👉 8250192130 Available With Room
 
Call Girls In Radisson Blu Hotel New Delhi Paschim Vihar ❤️8860477959 Escorts...
Call Girls In Radisson Blu Hotel New Delhi Paschim Vihar ❤️8860477959 Escorts...Call Girls In Radisson Blu Hotel New Delhi Paschim Vihar ❤️8860477959 Escorts...
Call Girls In Radisson Blu Hotel New Delhi Paschim Vihar ❤️8860477959 Escorts...
 
rishikeshgirls.in- Rishikesh call girl.pdf
rishikeshgirls.in- Rishikesh call girl.pdfrishikeshgirls.in- Rishikesh call girl.pdf
rishikeshgirls.in- Rishikesh call girl.pdf
 
VIP Call Girl Jamshedpur Aashi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service Jamshedpur
VIP Call Girl Jamshedpur Aashi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service JamshedpurVIP Call Girl Jamshedpur Aashi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service Jamshedpur
VIP Call Girl Jamshedpur Aashi 8250192130 Independent Escort Service Jamshedpur
 
Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
Regression analysis:  Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear RegressionRegression analysis:  Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
 
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSMMonte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
 
RE Capital's Visionary Leadership under Newman Leech
RE Capital's Visionary Leadership under Newman LeechRE Capital's Visionary Leadership under Newman Leech
RE Capital's Visionary Leadership under Newman Leech
 
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A SALESMAN / WOMAN
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A  SALESMAN / WOMANA DAY IN THE LIFE OF A  SALESMAN / WOMAN
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A SALESMAN / WOMAN
 
BEST Call Girls In Old Faridabad ✨ 9773824855 ✨ Escorts Service In Delhi Ncr,
BEST Call Girls In Old Faridabad ✨ 9773824855 ✨ Escorts Service In Delhi Ncr,BEST Call Girls In Old Faridabad ✨ 9773824855 ✨ Escorts Service In Delhi Ncr,
BEST Call Girls In Old Faridabad ✨ 9773824855 ✨ Escorts Service In Delhi Ncr,
 
Call Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine Service
Call Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine ServiceCall Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine Service
Call Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine Service
 
Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...
Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...
Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...
 
Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...
Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...
Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...
 
Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...
Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...
Call Girls In Sikandarpur Gurgaon ❤️8860477959_Russian 100% Genuine Escorts I...
 
0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdf
0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdf0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdf
0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdf
 
KestrelPro Flyer Japan IT Week 2024 (English)
KestrelPro Flyer Japan IT Week 2024 (English)KestrelPro Flyer Japan IT Week 2024 (English)
KestrelPro Flyer Japan IT Week 2024 (English)
 
Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023
Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023
Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023
 
Eni 2024 1Q Results - 24.04.24 business.
Eni 2024 1Q Results - 24.04.24 business.Eni 2024 1Q Results - 24.04.24 business.
Eni 2024 1Q Results - 24.04.24 business.
 
/:Call Girls In Jaypee Siddharth - 5 Star Hotel New Delhi ➥9990211544 Top Esc...
/:Call Girls In Jaypee Siddharth - 5 Star Hotel New Delhi ➥9990211544 Top Esc.../:Call Girls In Jaypee Siddharth - 5 Star Hotel New Delhi ➥9990211544 Top Esc...
/:Call Girls In Jaypee Siddharth - 5 Star Hotel New Delhi ➥9990211544 Top Esc...
 
2024 Numerator Consumer Study of Cannabis Usage
2024 Numerator Consumer Study of Cannabis Usage2024 Numerator Consumer Study of Cannabis Usage
2024 Numerator Consumer Study of Cannabis Usage
 

FIG Partners sample RMBS analysis

  • 1. Sample RMBS Analysis September 2013 Ricardo Diaz – Head of Fixed Income Pete Vaky rdiaz@figpartners.com pvaky@figpartners.com Brian Zwerner Sean McGlynn bzwerner@figpartners.com smcglynn@figpartners.com Tim Horton Chris Wood thorton@figpartners.com cwood@figpartners.com Megan Levine Amanda Havriluk mlevine@figpartners.com ahavriluk@figpartners.com (404) 601 7248
  • 2. 2 Methodology for RMBS Analysis  FIG Partners, LLC utilizes an in-depth analysis to produce cash flows for each RBS security that is evaluated. A review is completed of the collateral and historical performance on each security. The results are then compared to norms established for each product type and vintage and adjustments are made as necessary. A prepayment rate (CPR), default rate (CDR) and severity rate is calculated for each bond as detailed below:  The prepayment rate (CPR) is determined by looking at certain collateral characteristics (i.e., conforming loans, current mortgage rates and interest rates on underlying loans) and examining the historical prepayment levels.  The default rate (CDR) is set by using a roll rate process which incorporates an expectation for each performance bucket (Current, 30 day, 60 day, 90+ day, bankrupt, foreclosure, REO) to predict the probability of an ultimate default on that bucket. The roll rate is evaluating using the historical performance of a range of loan attributes which included CLTV, FICO, Loan Type, Vintage, and Geographic Concentrations.  The Loss Severity is determined by evaluating the pool characteristics and actual loss severities across the collateral over varying historical periods.  For all securities, we then utilize a vector approach that accounts for our expectation that the U.S. housing market will begin to normalize and eventually recover somewhat starting in approximately two-years. This approach is reflected in an increase in voluntary prepayment speeds, coupled with a moderation in loss rates and severities.
  • 3. 3 Methodology for RMBS Analysis Once cash flows are created using the pricing parameters for each security, a Market Yield level is then calculated for each bond as defined below. Market Yield: the yield for a security corresponding to the price expected in the current market environment. This is calculated by identifying similar securities based on a number of attributes from a database of securities offerings and trading levels maintained by FIG Partners. Each security is then priced in a cash flow model to determine the Market Price. We then evaluate to determine if there is an expected principal writedown. For these securities, we then calculate the Other Than Temporary Impairment (OTTI) if any through a discounted cash flow model.
  • 4. 4 Projected Cash Flows, FMV and OTTI – ARMT 2005-12 3A1 The bond was priced with the following parameters: CPR: 8% for 2 years, then 10% thereafter CDR: 10% for 2 years, then 7.5% thereafter Severity: 55% for 2 years, then 50% thereafter The bond is expected to take a writedown under our base case scenario. The discounted cash flow price is above the book price, thus no additional OTTI is appropriate. Date Balance Int Pymt Prin Pymt Loss 1/3/2013 5,447,739 - - - 8/25/2013 4,693,395 94,831 550,178 204,166 8/25/2014 3,741,127 112,538 696,395 255,873 8/25/2015 2,983,224 91,442 595,258 162,645 8/25/2016 2,372,898 78,491 498,572 111,755 8/25/2017 1,880,571 70,820 402,344 89,983 8/25/2018 1,483,911 62,959 324,261 72,399 8/25/2019 1,164,085 53,793 261,644 58,183 8/25/2020 906,265 44,488 211,146 46,674 8/25/2021 698,808 36,133 170,105 37,351 8/25/2022 532,289 28,734 136,716 29,804 8/25/2023 399,144 22,464 109,448 23,697 8/25/2024 293,161 17,028 87,221 18,762 8/25/2025 209,333 12,410 69,053 14,776 8/25/2026 143,734 8,765 54,037 11,561 8/25/2027 93,143 5,820 41,616 8,975 8/25/2028 55,620 3,578 30,623 6,900 8/25/2029 28,895 2,002 21,485 5,239 8/25/2030 10,678 920 14,299 3,918 8/25/2031 - 222 8,154 2,524 SUM 747,440 4,282,554 1,165,184 CUSIP Curr Par Value Book Value 2254W0MH5 5,447,739 4,238,341 Book Price Book Yld DCF Price 77.80 3.85% 78.62
  • 5. 5 Disclaimer Confidentiality Agreement / Legal Disclaimer This presentation (the “Presentation”) is being furnished on a confidential basis to a limited number of sophisticated investors on a “one-on- one” basis for informational and discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any security. The information set forth herein does not purport to be complete and is subject to change. The information contained herein does not purport to contain all of the information that may be required to evaluate any securities or other opportunities and any recipient hereof is encouraged and should conduct its own independent analysis of the data referred to herein. FIG Partners, LLC (“FIG”) and its affiliates disclaim any and all liability as to the information set forth herein or omissions here from, including, without limitation any express or implied representation or warranty with respect to such information. Certain information contained herein (including targets, forward-looking statements, economic and market information) has been obtained from published sources and/or prepared by third parties and in certain cases has not been updated through the date hereof. While such sources are believed to be reliable, none of FIG or any of their respective affiliates or employees assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Each party should seek advice based on its particular circumstances from an independent tax advisor. The use of this Presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law. The products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, nor suitable for all types of investors; their value and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates, or other factors. All parties should inform themselves as to the legal requirements and tax consequences of an investment in the products mentioned herein within the countries of their citizenship, residence, domicile and place of business. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the written permission of FIG. Information in this document has been obtained from various sources; we do not represent that this information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Certain information contained in this report constitutes “forward-looking statements,” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “will,” “seek,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. To ensure compliance with Internal Revenue Service Circular 230, you are hereby notified that any discussion of tax matters set forth herein was not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used by any party, for the purposes of avoiding penalties that may be imposed.
  • 6. 6 For More Information – Contact FIG Partners 1175 Peachtree Street 350 S. Figueroa Street 100 Colony Square, Suite 2250 Suite 550 Atlanta, GA 30361 Los Angeles, CA 90071 (404) 601-7200 866-FIG-BNKS