Electricity summit presentation august 2015

1. Inclusive Adaptive Solutions
to
Managing Nigeria’s Power Crisis
By
Meka Olowola
Managing Partner, Zenera Consulting
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2. Protocols
1. His Excellency, The Vice President, Federal Republic of Nigeria,
Professor Yemi Osibajo
2. His Excellency, The Executive Governor, Akwa Ibom State, Mr.
Udom G. Emmanuel
3. The Chairman Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, Dr.
Sam Amadi,
4. Chairman Nigerian Electricity Summit Group, Dr. Shamsudeen
Usman
5. Former Ministers of Power, Professors Bart Nnaji and Chinedu
Nedo
6. Convener, Nigerian Electricity Summit Group, Dr. Noel Akpata
7. All dignitaries present
8. Ladies and Gentlemen
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3. Meka Olowola MNIM, MNIPR, CMCIN,
Meka Olowola with almost 20 years cross-functional energy industry experience. He is the Managing
Partner of Zenera Consulting, an Africa-focused energy consultancy.
• Mr Olowola was part of the Nigerian delegation to the energy trade mission from Nigeria to the
21st World Energy Congress, in Montreal, Canada in 2011.
• In 2012, the FGN appointed Mr Olowola as a Member of the Special Subcommittee on Nigeria’s
Hosting of the World Economic Forum on Africa in 2014 and played a key advisory role for an
leading energy company during the Power Sector privatisation process in the same year.
• Mr Olowola, in 2013 was one of only two black African speakers at the prestigious Global China
Business meeting in The Hague.
• In 2014, Mr Olowola contributed to the establishment of the Nigerian Charter for the World
Business Council for Sustainable Development.
• He recently advised on a $1billion energy investment transaction inward Nigeria from Europe.
Mr Olowola is a certified change management specialist from Colorado State University, USA. He is
currently on the board of the Zimbabwe-Nigeria Chamber of Commerce; he is a member on the
Faculty of ValueConcepts Kenya; Chairman, BuzzDigital Limited, member of the Board of TektronPlus
Engineering Limited and CSR-in-Action, a non-profit, one-stop platform for the promotion of
corporate and collective Social Responsibility in Africa.
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4. Managing a National Crisis
1956-2014
Dr Stella Ameyo Adadevoh
4

5. We have
Issues,
but …
• GENCOs inability to generate power due
to shortage of gas
• ATC&C losses
• Ageing or obsolete infrastructure
• Overloading of system elements
• Inadequate investments for
infrastructure
• Generation vs Transmission capacity
imbalance
• Low metering efficiency
• Inadequate revenue collection
• Theft and pilferage
• Inefficient billing
• Correct demand estimation
• Investment wastage
5

6. Inadequate
power
generation
Debated
regulations
Power
losses
Obsolete
infrastructure
Overloading
of system
Inadequate
investments
Yes, technical and adaptive issues
Low
metering
efficiency
Theft and
pilferage
Inefficient
Billing
Inefficient
billing
6

7. Where do we find Ourselves now?
Poor commercialisation
Disharmony between operators
Total distrust1
2
3
Complete Loss of faith in the system
4
5 Hatred for operators of the system
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8. 8
Guardian Newspaper: “Electricity Discos
Suffer N8billion Deficit Monthly”
Punch Newspaper:
Senate seeks abolition of fixed electricity
charges
Nigeria loses 1,500MW of electricity
Thisday Newspaper:
Nigerians, Businesses Groan as Energy Crisis
Worsen
NOI-Polls: Average Cumulative Power
Supply Still Deplorable as Nigerians Receive
Less Than 6 Hours Per Day
The headlines don't look good

9. “Nigerians Are Spending Almost Three Times The Cost
Of Electricity On Alternative Sources Of Power.”- NOI
Polls ,20th August, 2015
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10. • Investor apathy
• Poor ROI
We Have Some Common Enemies
Doesn’t pay for the
electricity he enjoys by
bypassing meters
Destroys gas pipeline
• Officials that don’t remit
payment from
consumers.
• Regulators who turns
blind eye
•Ignorant stakeholders
•Lack of trust
•Misalignment
•Lack of engagement 10
The Energy thief
Poor Brand Corruption
Pipeline vandal
Low InvestmentInadequate
infrastructure
•Ageing
Infrastructure
•Overloaded system
elements

11. And we have some Common Needs
Good service at
best price Customers
Constant
Electricity
Stabilized
SectorIndustry players
Guaranteed
ROI Investors
Low
Investment
Risk
Government
Restored Image of
National Brand
11

12. How
We
Fought
Ebola
Collective
education and
massive public
awareness
Technical know-how
Health officers
Total Government
Support
Appropriate
funding
Aggregation of
little efforts
Inclusive –
contribution
across board
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How we Conquered in Crisis

13. How can we get want we want?
A Re-orientation
A Collective Action
It is not possible to resolve the problems in the power sector without building trust in
the market. This requires deliberate measure and communications of plans, success
and challenges.
Constant
Electricity
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14. A RE-ORIENTATION
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15. Why We should Face this Monster Collectively
Electricity is
crucial to
the spread
of
urbanization
especially in
a privatized
sector
FGN subsidies to PHCN will be re-channeled to other
sectors like agriculture, health etc.
Creation of more businesses and more jobs
When demand is met, GDP growth in 10 years could be
in two digits annually.
1
2
3
Reduced environmental impact. Less reliance on fossil
fuels4
Increased FX earning
Finished goods production– Stronger currency
.
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16. Moving from Distrust to Partnerships
We need to develop a relationship with
stakeholders so we can
• Earn the attention
• Take them through the journey
• Get them to understand the situation
• Educate them on their role in getting constant
electricity
How can we achieve this:
• Situation Reporting: Power Generation and
distribution reporting like weather forecast
• Developmental reporting:
• Developmental Forecast internal stakeholders
management
• Community Engagement
• Power usage education
• Emotional Collateral Development using
Sustainability Initiatives
If we don’t tell our stories, it will be told and not in a
way we would have…
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17. 17
Strategic Considerations
SET UP
One must introduce and institutionalize
deliberate stakeholder engagement on every level
with incentives to stakeholders so as to provide
more efficient electricity services across the value
chain .
CONNECT
STAKEHOLDERS
Zenera Consulting (C) 2015
The Electricity Market Summit Group (EMSG)
would set up to address these electricity sector
related issues in a strategic manner by engaging
market players in robust presentations and plenary
discussions.

18. Critical Stakeholders
GENCOs TRANSISCOs DISCOs
Investors
Gas supplier Regulatory
agencies
Consumers
Employees
Manufacturers
Government
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19. Identification of potential gaps in the electricity value chain
THE APPROACH
Zenera Consulting (C) 2015
19
A private sector
driven value-chain
perspective
The ESMG will chart a new course in the generation, transmission and consumption patterns for electricity in
Nigeria through a systems approach that involves private sector collaboration aimed at creating synergies in a
bid to developing an effective electricity value chain.
1
3
2 Identification of potential gaps in the electricity value chainAdvocating for the private sector position
Mobilization for strategic investments to build capacity of
electricity and energy production

20. Advocacy
Strategic
Investments
Gap Analysis
Zenera Consulting (C) 2015 20
Activities of the EMSG
To achieve the targeted 20,000MW capacity by 2020, an
estimated investment of $3.5bn a year is required. However, the
appetite for investment may have dwindled in the industry
owing to challenges faced by gencos [poor infrastructure for
delivery of gas to power plants], discos [persistent challenges
with Aggregate Technical Commercial and Collection (ATCC)
losses], and the obsolete infrastructure operated by
Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) among others.
Going forward, the EMSG will play a threefold niche role in of:
1. taking stock of progress made to identifying opportunities
for improvement – Gap analysis,
2. advocating for sector-wide policy change and thought
reorientation, and
3. facilitating strategic investments to drive a holistic
approach to value chain development of the electricity
sector in Nigeria
Why do we need EMSG?

21. Activities
Zenera Consulting (C) 2015 21
1
The EMSG will provide a platform for stocktaking and gap analysis with the
objective of issuing informed reports on the current status, and potential
opportunities and threats of the electricity industry.
Gap analysis for the EMSG will include identification of key challenges to
effective electricity supply, match-making, and mediation of key sector
actors.
Gap Analysis
2
Advocacy
Platform for mobilization of the key sector stakeholders to facilitate
countrywide policy change.
A change in policy is required to facilitate a sector-wide reorientation
…leapfrog into the dynamics of a modern electricity sector,
Modern electricity platforms are comprised of a blend of renewable and
non-renewable energy sources, smart grids, on and off grid systems and
efficient energy storage solutions, most of which are conspicuously absent
in the ongoing privatization drive.

22. 3
Activities
Zenera Consulting (C) 2015 22
“The depth of our banks' balance sheet is insufficient to fund required
investment in the gas and power space.”
Strategic investments estimated at $3.5bn a year are required to meet the
target of 20,000MW capacity by 2020. As a core capability, the NESF will
facilitate strategic investments to promote a holistic value chain development
approach of the electricity market in Nigeria.
Strategic
Investments

23. 23
The Desired Headlines

24. Let’s Collaborate to Win
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THANK YOU.www.zenera.mx