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Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis
1. Morgan Stanley
European Banks Conference
'Creating Value in a Deleveraging Environment'
Jacobo González-Robatto, Group CFO
London, October 6th 2011
London, 28th March 2012
2. Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by Banco Popular solely for purposes of
information. It may contain estimates and forecasts with respect to the future
development of the business and to the financial results of the Banco Popular
Group, which stem from the expectations of the Banco Popular Group and
which, by their very nature, are exposed to factors, risks and circumstances that
could affect the financial results in such a way that they might not coincide with
such estimates and forecasts. These factors include, but are not restricted to, (i)
changes in interest rates, exchange rates or any other financial variables, both
on the domestic as well as on the international securities markets, (ii) the
economic, political, social or regulatory situation, and (iii) competitive pressures.
In the event that such factors or other similar factors were to cause the financial
results to differ from the estimates and forecasts contained in this presentation,
or were to bring about changes in the strategy of the Banco Popular Group,
Banco Popular does not undertake to publicly revise the content of this
presentation.
This presentation contains summarised information and may contain unaudited
information. In no case shall its content constitute an offer, invitation or
recommendation to subscribe or acquire any security whatsoever, nor is it
intended to serve as a basis for any contract or commitment whatsoever.
2
3. Over the past years, Popular has been able to deleverage faster than
peers by gathering deposits rather than shrinking our loan book…
Loans evolution. CAGR 2007-2011 (%) Popular Loans/deposits ratio (%)
1.1
-39pp
174% 174%
149%
136% 135%
-0.1
-0.2
POP Average peers System
Deposits evolution. CAGR 2007-2011 (%)
10.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
7.0
3.9
POP Average peers System
Loans & deposits ex repos. Peers: SAN Spain, BBVA Spain, BTO, BKT & SAB (adjusted for Guipuzcoano). CABK & BKIA: 2007 data not available.
System: Banks & Saving banks. 3
Source: Quarterly reports and BoS
4. … While maintaining our leadership in recurrent profit…
Pre-provision profit over total assets 2011(*)
1,27%
+
Bank 1 1.23%
Bank 2 1.21%
Caja 1 1.16%
Bank 3 1.10%
Bank 4 0.98%
Caja2 0.86%
Capacity to
generate
Caja 3 0.73% recurrent
Bank 5 0.73% profits
Caja 4 0.60%
Caja 5 0.52%
Caja 6 0.42%
Caja 7 0.37%
Caja 8 0.32%
Caja 9 0.30% -
Source: Sabadell; BBVA España; Caixabank; Santander España; Pastor; KutxaBank; Unicaja; Bankinter; Ibercaja; BFA ; NovaCaixaGalicia; Caixa Catalunya;
Banca Cívica & Unimm Last available information (sep-dec 2011)
(*) Popular ratio calculated over average total assets 4
5. … This has been possible thanks to our unique business model, which
counts with the shortest assets duration within the industry and allow us
to adjust rapidly our spreads
Frontbook Spreads vs Euribor 3M (bps.) Loans breakdown by duration
+304bps.
Maturities <
483 1 year
Maturities > 27%
1 year
386
73%
318 324
210
179
The short duration of our lending book is
allowing us to reprice and transfer changes
(*) in funding costs
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
(*) January & February 2012
5
6. Even in a complex environment, Popular has managed to remain the
most efficient bank in the system… while Pastor synergies will allow us
to improve further
Popular & Pastor Efficiency1 Pre-Synergies
132%
83.0%
73.8%
Average 61.6% 67.1%
58.4% 58.8% 61.4% 61.7%
51.1% 52.3% 53.1% 55.0%
42.1% 44.4% 45.7% 46.1%
P o pular P o pular + Sabadell CaixaBank B BK B ankia Unicaja Pasto r Bankinter Ibercaja Catalunya NCG BMN B. Cívica Unnim CAM
P asto r C.
Pastor Annual Synergies (€m) Popular+Pastor Efficiency ratio (%)
147
44.4
40.4
74
2012E 2014E POP+PAS Pre-Synergies POP+PAS Post-Synergies
Note: Information as of 2011 except Unicaja, Ibercaja, CatalunyaCaixa, NCG y BMN (latest figures available)
1. General and administration costs over gross margin
6
7. In 4 years, we will have reduced by EUR19Bn our wholesale dependence,
maintaining a robust second line of liquidity…
Evolution of the commercial gap1
(€, million)
-18,541
-14,844 Second Line of Liquidity
38,130 29,086 23,512 23,286 c.19Bn (post LTRO) : Up to €12 Bn*
Maturities more than
covered: €14 Bn of LTRO vs
€8 Bn maturities
89,599 88,106 88,864 89,921
Access to the markets: We
remain one of the few
-51,469
players with access to the
-59,021 -65,352 -66,636 markets: €750 Mn of senior
debt issued in March
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
1GAP:Loans: Total loans to customers (net)- Other credits- Repos- Valuation adjustments of Repos – ICO Credit lines - Securitisations; Deposits:
Demand deposits + time deposits +Other accounts and valuation adjustments + Collection accounts (included in Other financial liabilities)
ICO Credit lines: credit lines to SMEs prefunded by State
* Pastor collaterals up to €2bn included 7
8. … And we have the highest capacity to optimize our capital base due to
our conservative IRB models. We will show already some progress in
2012
RWA/Net Loans (%) POP vs. Spanish peers
91 87 87
77 76 Spanish
68 63 Average
53
European
Average
Bank 1
Bank 2
Bank 3
Bank 4
Bank 5
Bank 6
Bank 7
pop
RWA for mortgages portfolios Euro & Spanish peers (%)
32
23 23
20 20
18 18
16 16
12
6
German
Italian
German
Italian
French
French
Spanish
Spanish
UK 1
UK 2
Pop
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
8
9. Outlook 2012
The deleveraging process of the Spanish Financial System will remain for a
couple of years.
In this environment, a recurrent pre-provision profit remains the key to
create value.
Due to our unique business model, we expect net interest income to grow
in 2012. This margin expansion will be come on the back of asset spread
improvement and funding cost containment rather than further carry
trade. Therefore, we believe this improvement is structural rather than a
one-off.
Cost to Income ratio to remain best-in-class not only in Spain but also in
Europe on the back of fresh synergies.
After 2012 clean-up and the expected pre-provision improvement, we
expect the underlying profitability of the bank to be in the top quartile of
the industry“new normal”.
9
10. Morgan Stanley
European Banks Conference
'Creating Value in a Deleveraging Environment'
Many Thanks.
Happy to take any questions.
10
12. On EBA, an update and a confirmation of our full confidence in bridging
the gap to the new EBA definitions without any kind of State capital
injection
Reconciliation reported CT1 and new EBA CT1
10.04% 1.35%
0.20% 0.03% 0.97% (*)
0.08% 7.41%
Reported CT1 MCNs Intangibles Insurance and IRB Models B-2.5 and other CT1 EBA 4Q11
4Q11 financial stakes
Capital measures submitted to comply with the new EBA capital requirements
Excess
0.67% 10.60% capital
0.92%
0.78% 0.54%
0.25% 0.57%
1.06%
7.41% (*)
Sovereign
buffer
9.00%
Minimum
capital
required
EBA CT1 Internal capital 2010 MCNs 2009 MCNs Exchange retail Other capital CT1 EBA Jun-12
December-11 generation conversion conversion / preferred optimization (1)
Exchange shares
(*) Without the impact of the sovereign buffer
(1) Capital optimization (ie; Improvement of collaterals or development of internal models;…) 12
13. Deals to reinforce our capital base
Deal Amount EBA CT1 Balance Sheet Coupon payment Coupon Conversion price Conversion Nº of shares to Nº of shares Annual gross
impact on P&L
(Mn€) compliant consideration accounting method date be issue in 2012 fully diluted fully diluted basis
(Mn of shares)
1,128 (*) Yes Subordinated debt Through Net Interest 6.75% April 2018 0 +76 Mn €
Exchange of preferred Floating. At market Maximum 376
shares into MCN Income prices Mn of shares
compliant with EBA
500 Yes Subordinated debt Through Net Interest 8% June 2012 166 166 +40 Mn€
2010 MNC conversion Floating. At market
into equity Income prices
700 Yes Equity Equity 7% 0 100 0
2009 MCN exchange Fixed price December
into MCN compliant (7.1€/share) 2014
with EBA
Pastor deal MCN 700 (**) Yes Subordinated debt Through Net Interest 7.5% +56 Mn €
Floating. At market October 2017 0 233
Income prices
(*) Final amount pending to the take up
(**) Terms of the deal to be announced
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