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Morgan Stanley
           European Banks Conference
'Creating Value in a Deleveraging Environment'

                Jacobo González-Robatto, Group CFO




                              London, October 6th 2011
                           London, 28th March 2012
Disclaimer



             This presentation has been prepared by Banco Popular solely for purposes of
             information. It may contain estimates and forecasts with respect to the future
             development of the business and to the financial results of the Banco Popular
             Group, which stem from the expectations of the Banco Popular Group and
             which, by their very nature, are exposed to factors, risks and circumstances that
             could affect the financial results in such a way that they might not coincide with
             such estimates and forecasts. These factors include, but are not restricted to, (i)
             changes in interest rates, exchange rates or any other financial variables, both
             on the domestic as well as on the international securities markets, (ii) the
             economic, political, social or regulatory situation, and (iii) competitive pressures.
             In the event that such factors or other similar factors were to cause the financial
             results to differ from the estimates and forecasts contained in this presentation,
             or were to bring about changes in the strategy of the Banco Popular Group,
             Banco Popular does not undertake to publicly revise the content of this
             presentation.

             This presentation contains summarised information and may contain unaudited
             information. In no case shall its content constitute an offer, invitation or
             recommendation to subscribe or acquire any security whatsoever, nor is it
             intended to serve as a basis for any contract or commitment whatsoever.



                                                                                                     2
Over the past years, Popular has been able to deleverage faster than
peers by gathering deposits rather than shrinking our loan book…

         Loans evolution. CAGR 2007-2011 (%)                                                      Popular Loans/deposits ratio (%)
            1.1


                                                                                                                    -39pp

                                                                                       174%           174%

                                                                                                                     149%
                                                                                                                                    136%    135%
                                -0.1
                                                 -0.2
           POP           Average peers          System


       Deposits evolution. CAGR 2007-2011 (%)


            10.5
                                                                                        2007           2008           2009          2010    2011
                                    7.0

                                                     3.9




            POP           Average peers           System


Loans & deposits ex repos. Peers: SAN Spain, BBVA Spain, BTO, BKT & SAB (adjusted for Guipuzcoano). CABK & BKIA: 2007 data not available.
System: Banks & Saving banks.                                                                                                                      3
Source: Quarterly reports and BoS
… While maintaining our leadership in recurrent profit…


                                                       Pre-provision profit over total assets 2011(*)


                                                                    1,27%
                                                                                                                                       +
             Bank 1                                                1.23%
             Bank 2                                                1.21%
             Caja 1                                            1.16%
             Bank 3                                          1.10%
             Bank 4                                        0.98%
              Caja2                                0.86%
                                                                                                                       Capacity to
                                                                                                                        generate
             Caja 3                            0.73%                                                                    recurrent
             Bank 5                           0.73%                                                                      profits
             Caja 4                       0.60%
             Caja 5                    0.52%
             Caja 6                0.42%
             Caja 7              0.37%
             Caja 8            0.32%
             Caja 9           0.30%                                                                                                     -
Source: Sabadell; BBVA España; Caixabank; Santander España; Pastor; KutxaBank; Unicaja; Bankinter; Ibercaja; BFA ; NovaCaixaGalicia; Caixa Catalunya;
Banca Cívica & Unimm Last available information (sep-dec 2011)
(*)   Popular ratio calculated over average total assets                                                                                          4
… This has been possible thanks to our unique business model, which
counts with the shortest assets duration within the industry and allow us
to adjust rapidly our spreads


           Frontbook Spreads vs Euribor 3M (bps.)                       Loans breakdown by duration



                                +304bps.

                                                                                                 Maturities <
                                                    483                                            1 year
                                                                Maturities >                        27%
                                                                  1 year
                                            386
                                                                   73%
                              318    324

                210
     179


                                                                   The short duration of our lending book is
                                                                  allowing us to reprice and transfer changes
                                                          (*)     in funding costs
     2007       2008          2009   2010   2011   2012




(*) January & February 2012
                                                                                                                5
Even in a complex environment, Popular has managed to remain the
most efficient bank in the system… while Pastor synergies will allow us
to improve further
                                                          Popular & Pastor Efficiency1 Pre-Synergies

                                                                                                                                                                   132%


                                                                                                                                                          83.0%
                                                                                                                                              73.8%
Average 61.6%                                                                                                                        67.1%
                                                                                          58.4%       58.8%      61.4%       61.7%
                                                  51.1%   52.3%      53.1%      55.0%
42.1%       44.4%          45.7%      46.1%




P o pular   P o pular +    Sabadell   CaixaBank    B BK    B ankia    Unicaja   Pasto r   Bankinter   Ibercaja   Catalunya    NCG    BMN     B. Cívica     Unnim   CAM
             P asto r                                                                                               C.



                      Pastor Annual Synergies (€m)                                                          Popular+Pastor Efficiency ratio (%)

                                                                147
                                                                                                                  44.4
                                                                                                                                                         40.4
                          74




                    2012E                                      2014E                                  POP+PAS Pre-Synergies                POP+PAS Post-Synergies




Note: Information as of 2011 except Unicaja, Ibercaja, CatalunyaCaixa, NCG y BMN (latest figures available)
1. General and administration costs over gross margin
                                                                                                                                                                          6
In 4 years, we will have reduced by EUR19Bn our wholesale dependence,
maintaining a robust second line of liquidity…

            Evolution of the commercial gap1

  (€, million)
                                  -18,541

                         -14,844                                                         Second Line of Liquidity
  38,130          29,086           23,512         23,286         c.19Bn                   (post LTRO) : Up to €12 Bn*

                                                                                         Maturities more than
                                                                                          covered: €14 Bn of LTRO vs
                                                                                          €8 Bn maturities
   89,599          88,106          88,864         89,921


                                                                                         Access to the markets: We
                                                                                          remain one of the few
  -51,469
                                                                                          players with access to the
                   -59,021         -65,352        -66,636                                 markets: €750 Mn of senior
                                                                                          debt issued in March

   2008            2009            2010           2011          2012E


1GAP:Loans: Total loans to customers (net)- Other credits- Repos- Valuation adjustments of Repos – ICO Credit lines - Securitisations; Deposits:
Demand deposits + time deposits +Other accounts and valuation adjustments + Collection accounts (included in Other financial liabilities)
ICO Credit lines: credit lines to SMEs prefunded by State
* Pastor collaterals up to €2bn included                                                                                                           7
… And we have the highest capacity to optimize our capital base due to
our conservative IRB models. We will show already some progress in
2012
                                               RWA/Net Loans (%) POP vs. Spanish peers


              91          87                   87
                                                           77               76                                                    Spanish
                                                                                          68               63                     Average
                                                                                                                         53
                                                                                                                                  European
                                                                                                                                   Average



                            Bank 1




                                               Bank 2




                                                            Bank 3




                                                                            Bank 4




                                                                                           Bank 5




                                                                                                           Bank 6




                                                                                                                         Bank 7
              pop




                       RWA for mortgages portfolios Euro & Spanish peers (%)



                                                                                                                         32

                                                                                                    23              23
                                                                                 20      20
                                                         18          18
                                      16         16
                       12
                6
                                               German


                                                        Italian




                                                                                        German




                                                                                                               Italian
              French


                       French


                                     Spanish




                                                                              Spanish
                                                                     UK 1




                                                                                                    UK 2




                                                                                                                         Pop
                                                           1




                                                                                                                  2
                 1


                          2


                                        1


                                                  1




                                                                                 2


                                                                                           2




                                                                                                                                             8
Outlook 2012




      The deleveraging process of the Spanish Financial System will remain for a
       couple of years.

      In this environment, a recurrent pre-provision profit remains the key to
       create value.

      Due to our unique business model, we expect net interest income to grow
       in 2012. This margin expansion will be come on the back of asset spread
       improvement and funding cost containment rather than further carry
       trade. Therefore, we believe this improvement is structural rather than a
       one-off.

      Cost to Income ratio to remain best-in-class not only in Spain but also in
       Europe on the back of fresh synergies.

      After 2012 clean-up and the expected pre-provision improvement, we
       expect the underlying profitability of the bank to be in the top quartile of
       the industry“new normal”.




                                                                                      9
Morgan Stanley
                   European Banks Conference
'Creating Value in a Deleveraging Environment'



        Many Thanks.

 Happy to take any questions.




                                                 10
APPENDIX




           11
On EBA, an update and a confirmation of our full confidence in bridging
the gap to the new EBA definitions without any kind of State capital
injection
    Reconciliation reported CT1 and new EBA CT1

             10.04%              1.35%
                                                    0.20%              0.03%              0.97%                                    (*)
                                                                                                         0.08%             7.41%




          Reported CT1           MCNs             Intangibles      Insurance and        IRB Models   B-2.5 and other    CT1 EBA 4Q11
             4Q11                                                 financial stakes


     Capital measures submitted to comply with the new EBA capital requirements

                                                                                                                                          Excess
                                                                                                     0.67%             10.60%             capital
                                                                                      0.92%
                                                                    0.78%                                                   0.54%
                               0.25%              0.57%
                                                                                                                            1.06%
             7.41% (*)
                                                                                                                                         Sovereign
                                                                                                                                           buffer
                                                                                                                            9.00%

                                                                                                                                     Minimum
                                                                                                                                      capital
                                                                                                                                     required
           EBA CT1         Internal capital      2010 MCNs        2009 MCNs      Exchange retail Other capital CT1 EBA Jun-12
         December-11         generation          conversion      conversion /       preferred   optimization (1)
                                                                   Exchange          shares

(*) Without the impact of the sovereign buffer
(1) Capital optimization (ie; Improvement of collaterals or development of internal models;…)                                                   12
Deals to reinforce our capital base


Deal                    Amount EBA CT1         Balance Sheet    Coupon payment       Coupon   Conversion price Conversion        Nº of shares to   Nº of shares        Annual gross
                                                                                                                                                                     impact on P&L
                          (Mn€) compliant      consideration accounting method                                           date be issue in 2012     fully diluted fully diluted basis
                                                                                                                                 (Mn of shares)

                        1,128 (*)     Yes   Subordinated debt Through Net Interest    6.75%                         April 2018                0                           +76 Mn €
Exchange of preferred                                                                         Floating. At market                                  Maximum 376
shares into MCN                                                            Income                          prices                                  Mn of shares
compliant with EBA
                             500      Yes   Subordinated debt Through Net Interest      8%                          June 2012               166             166            +40 Mn€
2010 MNC conversion                                                                           Floating. At market
into equity                                                                Income                          prices
                             700      Yes              Equity               Equity      7%                                                    0             100                   0
2009 MCN exchange                                                                                     Fixed price   December
into MCN compliant                                                                                  (7.1€/share)         2014
with EBA
Pastor deal MCN         700 (**)      Yes   Subordinated debt Through Net Interest     7.5%                                                                               +56 Mn €
                                                                                              Floating. At market October 2017                0             233
                                                                           Income                          prices




  (*)    Final amount pending to the take up
  (**)   Terms of the deal to be announced




                                                                                                                                                                             13
14

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Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

  • 1. Morgan Stanley European Banks Conference 'Creating Value in a Deleveraging Environment' Jacobo González-Robatto, Group CFO London, October 6th 2011 London, 28th March 2012
  • 2. Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Banco Popular solely for purposes of information. It may contain estimates and forecasts with respect to the future development of the business and to the financial results of the Banco Popular Group, which stem from the expectations of the Banco Popular Group and which, by their very nature, are exposed to factors, risks and circumstances that could affect the financial results in such a way that they might not coincide with such estimates and forecasts. These factors include, but are not restricted to, (i) changes in interest rates, exchange rates or any other financial variables, both on the domestic as well as on the international securities markets, (ii) the economic, political, social or regulatory situation, and (iii) competitive pressures. In the event that such factors or other similar factors were to cause the financial results to differ from the estimates and forecasts contained in this presentation, or were to bring about changes in the strategy of the Banco Popular Group, Banco Popular does not undertake to publicly revise the content of this presentation. This presentation contains summarised information and may contain unaudited information. In no case shall its content constitute an offer, invitation or recommendation to subscribe or acquire any security whatsoever, nor is it intended to serve as a basis for any contract or commitment whatsoever. 2
  • 3. Over the past years, Popular has been able to deleverage faster than peers by gathering deposits rather than shrinking our loan book… Loans evolution. CAGR 2007-2011 (%) Popular Loans/deposits ratio (%) 1.1 -39pp 174% 174% 149% 136% 135% -0.1 -0.2 POP Average peers System Deposits evolution. CAGR 2007-2011 (%) 10.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 7.0 3.9 POP Average peers System Loans & deposits ex repos. Peers: SAN Spain, BBVA Spain, BTO, BKT & SAB (adjusted for Guipuzcoano). CABK & BKIA: 2007 data not available. System: Banks & Saving banks. 3 Source: Quarterly reports and BoS
  • 4. … While maintaining our leadership in recurrent profit… Pre-provision profit over total assets 2011(*) 1,27% + Bank 1 1.23% Bank 2 1.21% Caja 1 1.16% Bank 3 1.10% Bank 4 0.98% Caja2 0.86% Capacity to generate Caja 3 0.73% recurrent Bank 5 0.73% profits Caja 4 0.60% Caja 5 0.52% Caja 6 0.42% Caja 7 0.37% Caja 8 0.32% Caja 9 0.30% - Source: Sabadell; BBVA España; Caixabank; Santander España; Pastor; KutxaBank; Unicaja; Bankinter; Ibercaja; BFA ; NovaCaixaGalicia; Caixa Catalunya; Banca Cívica & Unimm Last available information (sep-dec 2011) (*) Popular ratio calculated over average total assets 4
  • 5. … This has been possible thanks to our unique business model, which counts with the shortest assets duration within the industry and allow us to adjust rapidly our spreads Frontbook Spreads vs Euribor 3M (bps.) Loans breakdown by duration +304bps. Maturities < 483 1 year Maturities > 27% 1 year 386 73% 318 324 210 179  The short duration of our lending book is allowing us to reprice and transfer changes (*) in funding costs 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (*) January & February 2012 5
  • 6. Even in a complex environment, Popular has managed to remain the most efficient bank in the system… while Pastor synergies will allow us to improve further Popular & Pastor Efficiency1 Pre-Synergies 132% 83.0% 73.8% Average 61.6% 67.1% 58.4% 58.8% 61.4% 61.7% 51.1% 52.3% 53.1% 55.0% 42.1% 44.4% 45.7% 46.1% P o pular P o pular + Sabadell CaixaBank B BK B ankia Unicaja Pasto r Bankinter Ibercaja Catalunya NCG BMN B. Cívica Unnim CAM P asto r C. Pastor Annual Synergies (€m) Popular+Pastor Efficiency ratio (%) 147 44.4 40.4 74 2012E 2014E POP+PAS Pre-Synergies POP+PAS Post-Synergies Note: Information as of 2011 except Unicaja, Ibercaja, CatalunyaCaixa, NCG y BMN (latest figures available) 1. General and administration costs over gross margin 6
  • 7. In 4 years, we will have reduced by EUR19Bn our wholesale dependence, maintaining a robust second line of liquidity… Evolution of the commercial gap1 (€, million) -18,541 -14,844  Second Line of Liquidity 38,130 29,086 23,512 23,286 c.19Bn (post LTRO) : Up to €12 Bn*  Maturities more than covered: €14 Bn of LTRO vs €8 Bn maturities 89,599 88,106 88,864 89,921  Access to the markets: We remain one of the few -51,469 players with access to the -59,021 -65,352 -66,636 markets: €750 Mn of senior debt issued in March 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 1GAP:Loans: Total loans to customers (net)- Other credits- Repos- Valuation adjustments of Repos – ICO Credit lines - Securitisations; Deposits: Demand deposits + time deposits +Other accounts and valuation adjustments + Collection accounts (included in Other financial liabilities) ICO Credit lines: credit lines to SMEs prefunded by State * Pastor collaterals up to €2bn included 7
  • 8. … And we have the highest capacity to optimize our capital base due to our conservative IRB models. We will show already some progress in 2012 RWA/Net Loans (%) POP vs. Spanish peers 91 87 87 77 76 Spanish 68 63 Average 53 European Average Bank 1 Bank 2 Bank 3 Bank 4 Bank 5 Bank 6 Bank 7 pop RWA for mortgages portfolios Euro & Spanish peers (%) 32 23 23 20 20 18 18 16 16 12 6 German Italian German Italian French French Spanish Spanish UK 1 UK 2 Pop 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 8
  • 9. Outlook 2012  The deleveraging process of the Spanish Financial System will remain for a couple of years.  In this environment, a recurrent pre-provision profit remains the key to create value.  Due to our unique business model, we expect net interest income to grow in 2012. This margin expansion will be come on the back of asset spread improvement and funding cost containment rather than further carry trade. Therefore, we believe this improvement is structural rather than a one-off.  Cost to Income ratio to remain best-in-class not only in Spain but also in Europe on the back of fresh synergies.  After 2012 clean-up and the expected pre-provision improvement, we expect the underlying profitability of the bank to be in the top quartile of the industry“new normal”. 9
  • 10. Morgan Stanley European Banks Conference 'Creating Value in a Deleveraging Environment' Many Thanks. Happy to take any questions. 10
  • 11. APPENDIX 11
  • 12. On EBA, an update and a confirmation of our full confidence in bridging the gap to the new EBA definitions without any kind of State capital injection Reconciliation reported CT1 and new EBA CT1 10.04% 1.35% 0.20% 0.03% 0.97% (*) 0.08% 7.41% Reported CT1 MCNs Intangibles Insurance and IRB Models B-2.5 and other CT1 EBA 4Q11 4Q11 financial stakes Capital measures submitted to comply with the new EBA capital requirements Excess 0.67% 10.60% capital 0.92% 0.78% 0.54% 0.25% 0.57% 1.06% 7.41% (*) Sovereign buffer 9.00% Minimum capital required EBA CT1 Internal capital 2010 MCNs 2009 MCNs Exchange retail Other capital CT1 EBA Jun-12 December-11 generation conversion conversion / preferred optimization (1) Exchange shares (*) Without the impact of the sovereign buffer (1) Capital optimization (ie; Improvement of collaterals or development of internal models;…) 12
  • 13. Deals to reinforce our capital base Deal Amount EBA CT1 Balance Sheet Coupon payment Coupon Conversion price Conversion Nº of shares to Nº of shares Annual gross impact on P&L (Mn€) compliant consideration accounting method date be issue in 2012 fully diluted fully diluted basis (Mn of shares) 1,128 (*) Yes Subordinated debt Through Net Interest 6.75% April 2018 0 +76 Mn € Exchange of preferred Floating. At market Maximum 376 shares into MCN Income prices Mn of shares compliant with EBA 500 Yes Subordinated debt Through Net Interest 8% June 2012 166 166 +40 Mn€ 2010 MNC conversion Floating. At market into equity Income prices 700 Yes Equity Equity 7% 0 100 0 2009 MCN exchange Fixed price December into MCN compliant (7.1€/share) 2014 with EBA Pastor deal MCN 700 (**) Yes Subordinated debt Through Net Interest 7.5% +56 Mn € Floating. At market October 2017 0 233 Income prices (*) Final amount pending to the take up (**) Terms of the deal to be announced 13
  • 14. 14