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Discovery-led decision-making webinar, 11 October 2018
The document discusses discovery-led decision-making in uncertain environments, emphasizing the importance of understanding knowns, unknowns, and assumptions. It explores how different industries, like automotive and infrastructure, must adapt their decision-making processes under conditions of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). The text highlights the need for experimentation and proper framing of problems to foster effective decision-making and innovation.
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Discovery-led decision-making webinar, 11 October 2018
- 1. Discovery-Led Decision-Making Ben Shenoy 11thOctober 2018
- 2. How do wemake decisions under conditions of uncertainty?
- 3. If you arein the car industry… what do you need to be thinking about?
- 4. If you arein the car industry… what do you need to be thinking about?
- 5. If you arein the infrastructure sector… what do you need to be thinking about?
- 6. If you arein the infrastructure sector… what do you need to be thinking about?
- 7. Who would beinterested in this app?
- 8. Who would beinterested in this app?
- 9. When do wemake the biggest decisions during any initiative?
- 10. Classic managerial decision-making &the planning dilemma We take the most important decisions when we know the least
- 12. How should weact when we know how to do something? KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS
- 13. ‘Business as Usual’ How shouldwe act when we know how to do something? How do we do more of what works? KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS
- 14. How should weact when we know how to do something? How do we do more of what works? KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS SCALE
- 19. How should weact when we don’t know much? KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS SCALE
- 20. How should weact when we don’t know much? EXPERI- MENT How do we learn what we need to know? KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS SCALE
- 21. What do thesefirms have in common? Levi Strauss AT&T Kirin Kodak Marks & Spencer Boeing SSIH/Asaug Bausch & Lomb Philips GM Ciba-Geigy U.S. Steel DEC Nike Polaroid Siebel Nokia IBM Xerox PanAm Ogilvy & Mather
- 22. The Tyranny ofSuccess EXPERI- MENT KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS SCALE
- 23. Who has comeacross the term VUCA? VUCA
- 24. VUCA: Volatile, Uncertain,Complex & Ambiguous VUCA EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES PEOPLE & PLANET OPEN VS. CLOSED Not just digital technology: • Physical sciences (e.g. materials) • Medical sciences (e.g. treatment vs. prevention) • Social sciences Socioeconomic boundaries: • Globalization & its consequences (e.g. migration) • Contest between nation-states and: • multinational corporations • cross-national organizations (e.g. EU, NATO) • At a microeconomic level, blurring of enterprise boundaries (e.g. open innovation, open intellectual property, hybrid organizations) • Energy (e.g. Peak Oil) • Demography (e.g. consequences of China’s One Child Policy) • Climate change
- 25. How should weact in a VUCA environment? EXPERI- MENT KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS SCALE
- 26. How should weact in a VUCA environment? FRAME What’s the right problem to solve? SCALE KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS EXPERI- MENT
- 27. Knowing & NotKnowing It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. Mark Twain
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- 30. Knowing & NotKnowing: reprise Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen, and thinking what nobody has thought. Albert Szent-Gyorgyi
- 31. Discovery-Led Decision-Making FRAME SCALE KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS& ASSUMPTIONS EXPERI- MENT VARIATIONADAPTATION SELECTION