This document discusses how financial journalism can utilize regulatory filings and quantitative data to improve risk analysis and investigative reporting. It provides examples of how journalists can "scoop" important stories by analyzing public and private data to identify warning signs and contextualize information. Recognizing patterns in macroeconomic trends, company reports, and other sources allows journalists to better understand risks and "crack the next Greece or Lehman before competitors". Building trusted networks of experts gives access to non-public information that enhances reporting. Overall, the document argues financial journalism and risk management can mutually benefit from each other's analytical approaches to data and information.

1. Financial journalism meets
Quantitative finance
Quality journalism, an unlikely tool for risk managers //
Risk management, an undeployed resource for a better
journalism
Università di Bologna 19 November 2015

2. Overview
• What is a news?
• News, features, columns, investigations
• News Vs regulatory communications
• Public and private info
• How to play with data
• The secret ingredient

3. What is a news?

4. News, features, columns,
investigations

5. News Vs regulatory
communications

6. Play with regulatory
communications
Source: Consob (Italian stock market watchdog) filing

7. Public available sources
• Stock markets data
• Companies mandatory reports
• Companies announcements
• Macro data (inflation, public debt, unemployment)
• Regulatory filings
• Research reports (i.e. banks, think tanks,
Government related bodies)
• Academic papers

8. Scoop it! Chasing the context

9. Scoop it! When the info is not
publicly available
Build a thorough network of…
• advisers
• traders/brokers
• lawyers
• analysts
• professors
• board members
• risk managers
A matter of trust

10. Scoop it! Basic example

11. Scoop it! Pinpoint warning signs
Monte dei Paschi
What we knew
• overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta
• major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled
with Italian left party PD
• operative underperformance compared with
peers (NII and CET1 figures)
• F.R.E.S.H. notes “dodgy” issuance to avoid
Fondazione MPS’ dilution risk

12. Scoop it! Pinpoint warning signs
Monte dei Paschi
Mps 2011 accounts
•EUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total
assets
Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts
•EUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn
All good, but not enough to argue it’s controversial. You need the documents!

13. What we knew
•Not listed = not transparent
• self assessed shares value at EUR 62.5
• absence of a trading platform
• credit provided to “friends and family” (i.e.
Confindustria associates)
• ambitious branches expansion plan
Scoop it! Pinpoint warning signs
Banca popolare di Vicenza

14. Here comes the ECB’s comprehensive assessment
Scoop it! Pinpoint warning signs
Banca popolare di Vicenza

15. Scoop it! Pinpoint warning signs
Banca popolare di Vicenza

16. Scoop it! Pinpoint warning signs
Banca popolare di Vicenza

17. Scoop it! Pinpoint warning signs
Banca popolare di Vicenza

18. Scoop it! Play with public and
private data

19. Scoop it! Play with public and
private data/2

20. Scoop it! Play with public and
private data/2

21. Scoop it! Play with public and
private data/2
An educated guess
• Wilbur Ross, Carmignac, Schroeders among the
bondholders. WR getting loudy
• Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive
assesment’s adverse scenario = EUR 14.4bn
• Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario
capital needs = EUR 4.4bn
• Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =
EUR 10.9bn

22. Understanding the big picture
It’s all about
cracking the next
Greece, Lehman,
Parmalat before
the competitors
do.
It works for risk
managers as well
as journalists.

23. Understanding the big picture.
A basic example
Oil price sustained repricing. Effect on offshore
exploration, R&D expenses, big oil companies
coming out of fashion, oil exporter countries hit
=
Investors looking at the sector

24. Thank you!
antonio.vanuzzo@debtwire.com
@antoniovanuzzo