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Financial Market Failure and Regulation of
the Financial System
Financial Economics
Financial Policy Committee of the Bank of England
• FPC’s main role is to identify, monitor, and take action to
remove or reduce risks that threaten the resilience of the
UK financial system as a whole
• FPC publishes a Financial Stability Report identifying key
threats to the stability of the UK financial system
• The FPC has the power to instruct commercial banks to
change their capital buffers
• When the FPC decide that the risks to the financial system
are growing, they may tell the commercial banks and
other lenders to increase their capital buffers to help
absorb unexpected losses on their assets (bad debts etc.)
• These capital buffers are part of “macro-prudential policy”
- prudent means being careful at times of uncertainty.
UK Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA)
• PRA is part of the Bank of England and is responsible for
the prudential regulation and supervision of around 1,700
banks, building societies, credit unions, insurers and major
investment firms
• Particular focus on the solvency of specific financial
markets such as:
1. Insurance providers
2. Buy-to-let mortgage lenders
3. Credit unions
4. Other specialist lenders
Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)
• The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) replaced the
Financial Services Authority (FSA) on 1 April 2013.
• It is funded entirely by the firms it regulates
• FCA has three main objectives:
1. Secure an appropriate degree of protection for
consumers
2. Protect and enhance the integrity of the UK financial
system
3. Promote effective competition in the interests of
consumers.
Financial Market Failure – Moral Hazard
• Moral hazard exists in a market where an individual or
organisation takes many more risks than they should do
because they know that they are either covered by
insurance, or that the government will protect them from
any damage incurred as a result of those risks.
Financial Market Failure – Asymmetric Information
• This type of market failure exists when one individual or
party has much more information than another individual
or party, and uses that advantage to exploit the other
party.
• Finance is a market in information
Financial Market Failure – Monopoly / Market Rigging
• This type of market failure is effectively collusion or abuse
of a the power resulting from a concentrated market.
• When there is a small number of firms in a market, they
may choose to work together to increase their joint profits
and exploit consumers.
• The Competition and Markets Authority report on UK
banking in August 2016 said that “the older and larger
banks, which still account for the large majority of the
retail banking market, do not have to work hard enough to
win and retain customers and it is difficult for new and
smaller providers to attract customers.”
Financial Market Failure – Speculative Bubbles
• A bubble exists when the price of something is driven well
above what it should be, usually due to the behaviour of
consumers.
Financial Market Failure - Externalities
• A negative externality exists when a market transaction
has a negative consequence for a 3rd party.
• A positive externality exists when a market transaction has
a positive consequence for a 3rd party.
• We can also talk about network externalities, whereby
there are knock-on effects of organisations working
together – you could describe this as synergy if the effects
are positive, or discord if the effects are negative.
Financial Market Failure – Principal Agent Problem
• This situation exists when one person (i.e. the agent) is
able to make decisions on behalf of another person (i.e.
the principal), but the principal is unable to adequately
supervise the agent. This can result in the agent acting in
his/her own best interests rather than the interests of the
principal.
Financial Market Failure – Speculation
• This can be defined as a risky action in which a person or
organisation tries to predict what will happen to the price
of an asset and buys / sells accordingly in order to try and
make a profit. A speculator takes advantage of fluctuations
in market prices.
Financial Market Failure – Incomplete Markets
• An incomplete market exists when the available level of
supply is not enough to meet the needs and wants of
consumers i.e. only a proportion of potential demand is
met.
• Around 2 billion adults worldwide without a bank account.
• 10 million US households, and 1.5 million UK adults are
also unbanked
Moral Hazard and Banking Instability
• Moral hazard happens when an agent is given an implicit
guarantee of support in the event of making a loss – for
example insurance pay-outs or the guarantee of a bail-out
• In the commercial banking industry, the belief that the
government will absorb the losses that bank creditors would
otherwise bear can lead to moral hazard.
• This may lead banks to take on more risk than is optimal, since
they believe they receive any private benefits from the risk
taking (i.e. higher profits) while the government will bear the
cost of failure (funded eventually by the tax payer)
• Some institutions may be deemed “too big to fail” – leading to
diseconomies of scale and increasing the risk of financial
collapse
• Guaranteeing the deposits of savers might also mean that
banks can attract deposits by offering lower rates of interest
Financial Instability and the Real Economy
Why does financial instability matter for the economy? According to the Bank of England,
“Financial stability – public trust and confidence in financial institutions, markets, infrastructure,
and the system as a whole – is critical to a healthy, well-functioning economy.”
• Negative impact on business investment
• Increased precautionary saving lower demand
• High levels of debt and falling asset prices hit consumer wealth and spending
Instability and confidence
• People have less trust in banks and other institutions
• Higher interest rates on loans to businesses
• Credit harder to get for small and medium-sized enterprises and start-ups
Instability and loss of trust
• Evidence that poorer communities and families are more vulnerable during periods of
financial stress/recession
• Policy response of ultra-low interest rates hits real incomes of savers
Instability and inequality
What is Systemic Risk?
• Systemic risk became a key concept during the Global
Financial Crisis (GFC)
• Systemic risk is the possibility that an event at the micro
level of an individual bank / insurance company for
example could then trigger severe instability or collapse an
entire industry or economy.
• The GFC illustrated how interconnected the financial
world has become.
• Shocks in one location (e.g. the USA) or asset class (e.g.
sub-prime mortgages) can have a sizable impact on the
stability of institutions and markets around the world.
• Since the crisis, financial regulators have tried to make the
banking system less vulnerable to economic shocks and
create “firewalls” to prevent damage from systemic risk
The LIBOR scandal
• The “Libor” is the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate – this is the interest
rate charged by banks in London when they lend to each other in the
short-term. It is calculated every morning by Thompson Reuters, a
company specializing in producing financial data. The calculation is based
on information provided by members of the British Bankers Association.
• The scandal “broke” in early 2012, when a whistleblower from Barclays
Bank went public with the information that banks including Barclays, RBS
and HSBC amongst others had been under-reporting their inter-bank rate
to Thompson Reuters. The bankers had believed that by under-reporting
the rate they would make their banks look stronger, because a low rate
would indicate that they were trustworthy and creditworthy i.e. not risky.
This in turn would boost profits.
• There were a number of losers from the Libor-fixing scandal. One loser
were the many local government organisations around the world who
had bought a financial product called an interest-rate swap to try and
reduce fluctuations in interest payments on the variable-rate bonds they
had issued. Swap-sellers exploited the lack of financial knowledge of local
governments by linking payments to local government to the artificially-
low Libor rate.
• The US government estimates that the extra cost to local governments in
the United States alone was $6bn.
The Enron Scandal
• Enron Corporation was a Texas-based US energy company established in 1985.
• By 2001, at the time of its bankruptcy and subsequent downfall, it was America’s 7th
largest company, employing over 21,000 people in over 40 countries. In 2000, Enron had
been awarded the accolade of America’s Most Innovative Company, by Fortune Magazine.
What many people didn’t realise was that Enron’s creativity and innovation extended to its
accounting practices.
• Enron was well known for producing very confusing annual financial statements to its
shareholders. Their statements had, for years, shown volatile cash flow and large debts
under vague headings.
• The most senior managers, Kenneth Lay, Jeffrey Skilling and Andrew Fastow, later said in
court that they were totally focused on meeting Wall Street’s expectations about their
share prices and performance so they developed ways of hiding the huge amounts of debt
that Enron had built up. For example, expectations about future profit were included in
their accounts.
• Enron also established many “special purpose entities”, or “shell companies” – these
companies didn’t really exist, but Enron executives moved Enron’s debt into the accounts
of these shells.
• Most of Enron’s managers were rewarded using “stock options”, so their performance was
directly linked to Enron’s share price – this meant they had an incentive to make Enron
look as profitable as possible all the time.
• Making matters worse, Enron’s accounting auditor, a firm called Arthur Andersen, signed
off Enron’s accounts annually without question, convincing investors that the firm was
financially sound. In 2000, Arthur Andersen received over $50m from Enron in fees; they
faced a conflict of interest because unless Andersen’s confirmed that the accounts were
sound they would lose a significant amount of revenue.
The 2010 Wall Street Flash Crash
• On May 6th 2010, the price of shares on the US Dow-Jones Index
plummeted nearly 1000 points in a matter of minutes, before rebounding
within 30 minutes; this was the largest daily drop in the Index’s history.
• This wiped a temporary $1 trillion off the value of shares on the New York
Stock Exchange (NYSE). For years, the cause of the flash crash was
unknown.
• Initially, analysts suggested that the cause could be due to slower IT being
used on the NYSE compared with the IT used by financial firms, allowing
changesin share prices to be exploited in a bear market.
• An alternative suggestion was that the crash was due to over-activity by
High-Frequency Traders (HFT) – these are (usually) computerised trading
programs that buy and sell shares within milliseconds to make a profit.
• However, in April 2015, the US Department for Justice brought charges
against Navinder Singh Sarao, a London-based HFT for his role in the crash.
• The US believed that he used commercially-available computer software
to create large “sell” orders (i.e. instructions to sell shares) which would
cause the price of those shares to fall, but then pull out of the sale at the
very last millisecond in order in order to benefit from buying shares at the
lower price. This practice is known as “spoofing”. The US authorities think
that he earned $40m as a result.
The Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis
• This crisis was the main fuel that ignited the 2007/
2008 global financial crisis
• Sub-prime lending is lending money, usually to buy
a house, to people who are risky to lend to.
• To compensate for this risk, commercial banks
charge higher interest rates.
• When house prices were rising in the 2000s, banks
decided that the risk of sub-prime lending had
fallen, as borrowers would be able to sell their
houses for a higher price than they had bought
them at in order to repay their mortgage if they ran
into financial difficulties.
• In the USA, many sub-prime loans were insured by
the firms Fannie-Mae and Freddie-Mac.
• However, when house prices started to fall, sub-
prime homeowners found themselves in negative
equity and unable to repay their loans.
• This meant that commercial banks lost out
The Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis
• This crisis spread quickly, because banks had
sold on debt in the form of financial derivatives.
• Effectively, they had ‘chopped up’ the safe loans
and the sub-prime loans and ‘repackaged’ them
in a bundle, selling them for a higher price than
they would have received for merely selling on
the sub-prime loans.
• Financial institutions (such as pension funds)
buying these derivatives didn’t understand the
risk attached to them, because the derivatives
had been given high ratings by the major credit
ratings agencies
• This meant that many financial institutions
owned large amounts of sub-prime debt.
• The USA government ended up bailing out
Fannie-Mae and Freddie Mac, and the UK
government bailed out a number of UK banks
taking some into state ownership.
Liquidity Ratios and Capital Ratios
• Liquidity means the ease and cost with which assets can be
turned into cash and used immediately as a means of exchange
• Certain assets are highly liquid
• Notes and coins that are legal tender are perfectly liquid
• Money held in sight-deposit accounts is highly liquid because it
can often be withdrawn immediately without penalty
(although there might be a daily limit)
• Other liquid assets might include treasury bills (short term
government loans) and also stocks held in large listed
companies (because these stocks are traded heavily each day)
• According to the Bank of England (July 2016) UK commercial
banks hold more than £600 billion of high-quality liquid assets,
which is around four times the level they held before the
global financial crisis.
What are Liquidity Ratios?
• A liquidity ratio is the ratio of liquid assets held by a bank on
their balance sheet to their overall assets
• Banks need to hold enough to cover expected demands from
depositors
• In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) the Basel
Agreement require commercial banks to keep enough liquid
assets, such as cash and government bonds, to get through a
30-day market crisis
• A liquidity ratio may refer to a reserve assets ratio for a bank
which sets the minimum liquid reserves that a bank must
maintain in the event of a sudden increase in withdrawals
• A high liquidity ratio may limit the amount of lending that a
bank is able to do – it must maintain higher amounts of cash
What are Capital Ratios?
• Capital ratios have become important as part of attempts
to maintain financial market stability in recent years
• A commercial bank's capital ratio measures the funds it
has in reserve against the riskier assets it holds that could
be vulnerable in the event of a crisis.
• The European Union runs regular “stress tests” to check
whether banks have enough of a capital buffer to weather
difficult economic/financial conditions (known as disaster
scenarios)
• Banks must maintain sufficient capital which includes
money raised from selling new shares to investors and
also their retained earnings (profits)
• Europe’s banks have raised €180bn since the end of 2013
• But the size of “non-performing loans” has also risen
Tier One Capital Ratio for Lloyds Banking Group
Tier 1 common capital ratio is a measurement of a commercial bank's equity capital
compared with its total assets. This ratio is used to assess bank's financial strength.
11.6%
12.5%
13.8%
14.5%
16.5% 16.4%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tier1capitalratio
What are Leverage Ratios?
• The leverage ratio is a simple indicator of the ability of a bank
or building society to absorb losses
• Leverage ratio = Capital / Exposures
• The leverage ratio refers to the share of the total value of a
firm’s assets and its other commitments (referred to as
‘exposures’) that is funded with high-quality capital capable of
absorbing losses while a firm is a ‘going concern’.
• The lower the leverage ratio, the more than a commercial bank
or building society relies on debt to fund their activities
• In June 2015, the FPC directed the Prudential Regulation
Authority (PRA) to require each major UK commercial bank
and building society to meet a leverage ratio requirement and
hold buffers over that requirement
Micro and Macro Prudential Policies
• Since the global financial crisis, regulators have placed
increased emphasis on prudential regulation – i.e. putting
in place safeguards for the stability of the financial system
• Micro-prudential involved regulation of individual
financial firms such as commercial banks, payday lenders
and insurance companies
• Macro-prudential regulation is designed to safeguard the
financial system as a whole
Peer to Peer Lending
Peer to Peer Lending
• Peer-to-peer lending happens when individual savers are able
to lend directly to borrowers, often through online peer-to-
peer lending platforms
• Market participants include Zopa (launched 2005), Crowdcube
(launched 2009), Funding Circle (launched 2010), Rate Setter
(also launched 2010) and Thincats (launched 2011).
• Both the investor and the borrower benefits as the lender
achieves higher interest rates and the borrower lower interest
rates than would be on offer if either had gone through a
commercial bank.
• Lenders are at more risk because loans are generally
unsecured – the risk of borrower default is higher
• Individuals can choose the level of risk they are prepared to
tolerate – the higher risk loans offer a better rate of interest
Peer-to-peer lending via the Funding Circle platform
2,195,200
17,397,500
49,239,620
129,217,080
278,573,020
410,927,080
0
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
300000000
350000000
400000000
450000000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AmountofmoneylentinGBP
Funding Circle is a peer-to-peer lending platform that allows investors to lend money
directly to small & medium-sized businesses. Funding Circle is the largest P2P lender in UK
Market Share of leading Business P2P Lending Platforms
Peer-to-peer websites connect investors to borrowers online, cutting out the banks.
However savers who lend money are not part of the Deposit Protection Scheme
20.35%
9.97%
3.27%
2.85%
2.1%
1.55%
0.88%
0.71%
0.63%
0.28%
0.17%
0.14%
0.11%
0.1%
0.07%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Funding Circle
LendInvest
Wellesley & Co.
Saving Stream
ThinCats
Folk 2 Folk
Landbay
Assetz Capital
FundingKnight
ArchOver
Rebuildingsociety
UK Bond Network
Money&Co
Abundance Generation
Crowdcube MiniBonds
Market share (%) in October 2015
Crowdfunding
• Crowdfunding is a form of
equity finance that has
grown rapidly in the USA
and the UK in particular
• Crowdfunding involves the
collective effort of a large
number of individuals who
network and pool small
amounts of their capital to
finance a new or existing
business venture
• Social causes remain the
most active source of
crowdfunding activity
Crowdfunding market participants
include Indiegogo (launched 2008)
which has funded more than 275,000
campaigns, and Kickstarter (launched
2009) which has funded around 100,000
projects globally
Profitability of the UK Commercial Banking Industry
• Major UK commercial banks’ profitability has fallen quite
significantly since the global financial crisis
• Low profitability reduces the ability of commercial banks to
generate fresh capital internally and reduces their resilience to
future domestic and external shocks.
• Key factors:
1. Significant rise in regulatory costs
2. Lower interest rates on loans has reduced trading incomes –
for example, a steep fall in mortgage rates
3. Financial cost of previous misconduct - UK banks put side
another £15 billion relating to past misconduct in their 2015
results, reducing pre-tax profits by around 50%. This includes
the costs of miss-selling PPI
4. Commercial banks are now making less money from
investment banking services such as currency &
commodities trading. Retail banking is traditionally less
profitable than the higher risk investment banking side
Regulation of the Financial System
Financial Economics

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Financial Market Failure and Regulation of the Financial System

  • 1. Financial Market Failure and Regulation of the Financial System Financial Economics
  • 2. Financial Policy Committee of the Bank of England • FPC’s main role is to identify, monitor, and take action to remove or reduce risks that threaten the resilience of the UK financial system as a whole • FPC publishes a Financial Stability Report identifying key threats to the stability of the UK financial system • The FPC has the power to instruct commercial banks to change their capital buffers • When the FPC decide that the risks to the financial system are growing, they may tell the commercial banks and other lenders to increase their capital buffers to help absorb unexpected losses on their assets (bad debts etc.) • These capital buffers are part of “macro-prudential policy” - prudent means being careful at times of uncertainty.
  • 3. UK Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) • PRA is part of the Bank of England and is responsible for the prudential regulation and supervision of around 1,700 banks, building societies, credit unions, insurers and major investment firms • Particular focus on the solvency of specific financial markets such as: 1. Insurance providers 2. Buy-to-let mortgage lenders 3. Credit unions 4. Other specialist lenders
  • 4. Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) • The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) replaced the Financial Services Authority (FSA) on 1 April 2013. • It is funded entirely by the firms it regulates • FCA has three main objectives: 1. Secure an appropriate degree of protection for consumers 2. Protect and enhance the integrity of the UK financial system 3. Promote effective competition in the interests of consumers.
  • 5. Financial Market Failure – Moral Hazard • Moral hazard exists in a market where an individual or organisation takes many more risks than they should do because they know that they are either covered by insurance, or that the government will protect them from any damage incurred as a result of those risks.
  • 6. Financial Market Failure – Asymmetric Information • This type of market failure exists when one individual or party has much more information than another individual or party, and uses that advantage to exploit the other party. • Finance is a market in information
  • 7. Financial Market Failure – Monopoly / Market Rigging • This type of market failure is effectively collusion or abuse of a the power resulting from a concentrated market. • When there is a small number of firms in a market, they may choose to work together to increase their joint profits and exploit consumers. • The Competition and Markets Authority report on UK banking in August 2016 said that “the older and larger banks, which still account for the large majority of the retail banking market, do not have to work hard enough to win and retain customers and it is difficult for new and smaller providers to attract customers.”
  • 8. Financial Market Failure – Speculative Bubbles • A bubble exists when the price of something is driven well above what it should be, usually due to the behaviour of consumers.
  • 9. Financial Market Failure - Externalities • A negative externality exists when a market transaction has a negative consequence for a 3rd party. • A positive externality exists when a market transaction has a positive consequence for a 3rd party. • We can also talk about network externalities, whereby there are knock-on effects of organisations working together – you could describe this as synergy if the effects are positive, or discord if the effects are negative.
  • 10. Financial Market Failure – Principal Agent Problem • This situation exists when one person (i.e. the agent) is able to make decisions on behalf of another person (i.e. the principal), but the principal is unable to adequately supervise the agent. This can result in the agent acting in his/her own best interests rather than the interests of the principal.
  • 11. Financial Market Failure – Speculation • This can be defined as a risky action in which a person or organisation tries to predict what will happen to the price of an asset and buys / sells accordingly in order to try and make a profit. A speculator takes advantage of fluctuations in market prices.
  • 12. Financial Market Failure – Incomplete Markets • An incomplete market exists when the available level of supply is not enough to meet the needs and wants of consumers i.e. only a proportion of potential demand is met. • Around 2 billion adults worldwide without a bank account. • 10 million US households, and 1.5 million UK adults are also unbanked
  • 13. Moral Hazard and Banking Instability • Moral hazard happens when an agent is given an implicit guarantee of support in the event of making a loss – for example insurance pay-outs or the guarantee of a bail-out • In the commercial banking industry, the belief that the government will absorb the losses that bank creditors would otherwise bear can lead to moral hazard. • This may lead banks to take on more risk than is optimal, since they believe they receive any private benefits from the risk taking (i.e. higher profits) while the government will bear the cost of failure (funded eventually by the tax payer) • Some institutions may be deemed “too big to fail” – leading to diseconomies of scale and increasing the risk of financial collapse • Guaranteeing the deposits of savers might also mean that banks can attract deposits by offering lower rates of interest
  • 14. Financial Instability and the Real Economy Why does financial instability matter for the economy? According to the Bank of England, “Financial stability – public trust and confidence in financial institutions, markets, infrastructure, and the system as a whole – is critical to a healthy, well-functioning economy.” • Negative impact on business investment • Increased precautionary saving lower demand • High levels of debt and falling asset prices hit consumer wealth and spending Instability and confidence • People have less trust in banks and other institutions • Higher interest rates on loans to businesses • Credit harder to get for small and medium-sized enterprises and start-ups Instability and loss of trust • Evidence that poorer communities and families are more vulnerable during periods of financial stress/recession • Policy response of ultra-low interest rates hits real incomes of savers Instability and inequality
  • 15. What is Systemic Risk? • Systemic risk became a key concept during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) • Systemic risk is the possibility that an event at the micro level of an individual bank / insurance company for example could then trigger severe instability or collapse an entire industry or economy. • The GFC illustrated how interconnected the financial world has become. • Shocks in one location (e.g. the USA) or asset class (e.g. sub-prime mortgages) can have a sizable impact on the stability of institutions and markets around the world. • Since the crisis, financial regulators have tried to make the banking system less vulnerable to economic shocks and create “firewalls” to prevent damage from systemic risk
  • 16. The LIBOR scandal • The “Libor” is the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate – this is the interest rate charged by banks in London when they lend to each other in the short-term. It is calculated every morning by Thompson Reuters, a company specializing in producing financial data. The calculation is based on information provided by members of the British Bankers Association. • The scandal “broke” in early 2012, when a whistleblower from Barclays Bank went public with the information that banks including Barclays, RBS and HSBC amongst others had been under-reporting their inter-bank rate to Thompson Reuters. The bankers had believed that by under-reporting the rate they would make their banks look stronger, because a low rate would indicate that they were trustworthy and creditworthy i.e. not risky. This in turn would boost profits. • There were a number of losers from the Libor-fixing scandal. One loser were the many local government organisations around the world who had bought a financial product called an interest-rate swap to try and reduce fluctuations in interest payments on the variable-rate bonds they had issued. Swap-sellers exploited the lack of financial knowledge of local governments by linking payments to local government to the artificially- low Libor rate. • The US government estimates that the extra cost to local governments in the United States alone was $6bn.
  • 17. The Enron Scandal • Enron Corporation was a Texas-based US energy company established in 1985. • By 2001, at the time of its bankruptcy and subsequent downfall, it was America’s 7th largest company, employing over 21,000 people in over 40 countries. In 2000, Enron had been awarded the accolade of America’s Most Innovative Company, by Fortune Magazine. What many people didn’t realise was that Enron’s creativity and innovation extended to its accounting practices. • Enron was well known for producing very confusing annual financial statements to its shareholders. Their statements had, for years, shown volatile cash flow and large debts under vague headings. • The most senior managers, Kenneth Lay, Jeffrey Skilling and Andrew Fastow, later said in court that they were totally focused on meeting Wall Street’s expectations about their share prices and performance so they developed ways of hiding the huge amounts of debt that Enron had built up. For example, expectations about future profit were included in their accounts. • Enron also established many “special purpose entities”, or “shell companies” – these companies didn’t really exist, but Enron executives moved Enron’s debt into the accounts of these shells. • Most of Enron’s managers were rewarded using “stock options”, so their performance was directly linked to Enron’s share price – this meant they had an incentive to make Enron look as profitable as possible all the time. • Making matters worse, Enron’s accounting auditor, a firm called Arthur Andersen, signed off Enron’s accounts annually without question, convincing investors that the firm was financially sound. In 2000, Arthur Andersen received over $50m from Enron in fees; they faced a conflict of interest because unless Andersen’s confirmed that the accounts were sound they would lose a significant amount of revenue.
  • 18. The 2010 Wall Street Flash Crash • On May 6th 2010, the price of shares on the US Dow-Jones Index plummeted nearly 1000 points in a matter of minutes, before rebounding within 30 minutes; this was the largest daily drop in the Index’s history. • This wiped a temporary $1 trillion off the value of shares on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). For years, the cause of the flash crash was unknown. • Initially, analysts suggested that the cause could be due to slower IT being used on the NYSE compared with the IT used by financial firms, allowing changesin share prices to be exploited in a bear market. • An alternative suggestion was that the crash was due to over-activity by High-Frequency Traders (HFT) – these are (usually) computerised trading programs that buy and sell shares within milliseconds to make a profit. • However, in April 2015, the US Department for Justice brought charges against Navinder Singh Sarao, a London-based HFT for his role in the crash. • The US believed that he used commercially-available computer software to create large “sell” orders (i.e. instructions to sell shares) which would cause the price of those shares to fall, but then pull out of the sale at the very last millisecond in order in order to benefit from buying shares at the lower price. This practice is known as “spoofing”. The US authorities think that he earned $40m as a result.
  • 19. The Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis • This crisis was the main fuel that ignited the 2007/ 2008 global financial crisis • Sub-prime lending is lending money, usually to buy a house, to people who are risky to lend to. • To compensate for this risk, commercial banks charge higher interest rates. • When house prices were rising in the 2000s, banks decided that the risk of sub-prime lending had fallen, as borrowers would be able to sell their houses for a higher price than they had bought them at in order to repay their mortgage if they ran into financial difficulties. • In the USA, many sub-prime loans were insured by the firms Fannie-Mae and Freddie-Mac. • However, when house prices started to fall, sub- prime homeowners found themselves in negative equity and unable to repay their loans. • This meant that commercial banks lost out
  • 20. The Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis • This crisis spread quickly, because banks had sold on debt in the form of financial derivatives. • Effectively, they had ‘chopped up’ the safe loans and the sub-prime loans and ‘repackaged’ them in a bundle, selling them for a higher price than they would have received for merely selling on the sub-prime loans. • Financial institutions (such as pension funds) buying these derivatives didn’t understand the risk attached to them, because the derivatives had been given high ratings by the major credit ratings agencies • This meant that many financial institutions owned large amounts of sub-prime debt. • The USA government ended up bailing out Fannie-Mae and Freddie Mac, and the UK government bailed out a number of UK banks taking some into state ownership.
  • 21. Liquidity Ratios and Capital Ratios • Liquidity means the ease and cost with which assets can be turned into cash and used immediately as a means of exchange • Certain assets are highly liquid • Notes and coins that are legal tender are perfectly liquid • Money held in sight-deposit accounts is highly liquid because it can often be withdrawn immediately without penalty (although there might be a daily limit) • Other liquid assets might include treasury bills (short term government loans) and also stocks held in large listed companies (because these stocks are traded heavily each day) • According to the Bank of England (July 2016) UK commercial banks hold more than £600 billion of high-quality liquid assets, which is around four times the level they held before the global financial crisis.
  • 22. What are Liquidity Ratios? • A liquidity ratio is the ratio of liquid assets held by a bank on their balance sheet to their overall assets • Banks need to hold enough to cover expected demands from depositors • In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) the Basel Agreement require commercial banks to keep enough liquid assets, such as cash and government bonds, to get through a 30-day market crisis • A liquidity ratio may refer to a reserve assets ratio for a bank which sets the minimum liquid reserves that a bank must maintain in the event of a sudden increase in withdrawals • A high liquidity ratio may limit the amount of lending that a bank is able to do – it must maintain higher amounts of cash
  • 23. What are Capital Ratios? • Capital ratios have become important as part of attempts to maintain financial market stability in recent years • A commercial bank's capital ratio measures the funds it has in reserve against the riskier assets it holds that could be vulnerable in the event of a crisis. • The European Union runs regular “stress tests” to check whether banks have enough of a capital buffer to weather difficult economic/financial conditions (known as disaster scenarios) • Banks must maintain sufficient capital which includes money raised from selling new shares to investors and also their retained earnings (profits) • Europe’s banks have raised €180bn since the end of 2013 • But the size of “non-performing loans” has also risen
  • 24. Tier One Capital Ratio for Lloyds Banking Group Tier 1 common capital ratio is a measurement of a commercial bank's equity capital compared with its total assets. This ratio is used to assess bank's financial strength. 11.6% 12.5% 13.8% 14.5% 16.5% 16.4% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Tier1capitalratio
  • 25. What are Leverage Ratios? • The leverage ratio is a simple indicator of the ability of a bank or building society to absorb losses • Leverage ratio = Capital / Exposures • The leverage ratio refers to the share of the total value of a firm’s assets and its other commitments (referred to as ‘exposures’) that is funded with high-quality capital capable of absorbing losses while a firm is a ‘going concern’. • The lower the leverage ratio, the more than a commercial bank or building society relies on debt to fund their activities • In June 2015, the FPC directed the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) to require each major UK commercial bank and building society to meet a leverage ratio requirement and hold buffers over that requirement
  • 26. Micro and Macro Prudential Policies • Since the global financial crisis, regulators have placed increased emphasis on prudential regulation – i.e. putting in place safeguards for the stability of the financial system • Micro-prudential involved regulation of individual financial firms such as commercial banks, payday lenders and insurance companies • Macro-prudential regulation is designed to safeguard the financial system as a whole
  • 27. Peer to Peer Lending
  • 28. Peer to Peer Lending • Peer-to-peer lending happens when individual savers are able to lend directly to borrowers, often through online peer-to- peer lending platforms • Market participants include Zopa (launched 2005), Crowdcube (launched 2009), Funding Circle (launched 2010), Rate Setter (also launched 2010) and Thincats (launched 2011). • Both the investor and the borrower benefits as the lender achieves higher interest rates and the borrower lower interest rates than would be on offer if either had gone through a commercial bank. • Lenders are at more risk because loans are generally unsecured – the risk of borrower default is higher • Individuals can choose the level of risk they are prepared to tolerate – the higher risk loans offer a better rate of interest
  • 29. Peer-to-peer lending via the Funding Circle platform 2,195,200 17,397,500 49,239,620 129,217,080 278,573,020 410,927,080 0 50000000 100000000 150000000 200000000 250000000 300000000 350000000 400000000 450000000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 AmountofmoneylentinGBP Funding Circle is a peer-to-peer lending platform that allows investors to lend money directly to small & medium-sized businesses. Funding Circle is the largest P2P lender in UK
  • 30. Market Share of leading Business P2P Lending Platforms Peer-to-peer websites connect investors to borrowers online, cutting out the banks. However savers who lend money are not part of the Deposit Protection Scheme 20.35% 9.97% 3.27% 2.85% 2.1% 1.55% 0.88% 0.71% 0.63% 0.28% 0.17% 0.14% 0.11% 0.1% 0.07% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Funding Circle LendInvest Wellesley & Co. Saving Stream ThinCats Folk 2 Folk Landbay Assetz Capital FundingKnight ArchOver Rebuildingsociety UK Bond Network Money&Co Abundance Generation Crowdcube MiniBonds Market share (%) in October 2015
  • 31. Crowdfunding • Crowdfunding is a form of equity finance that has grown rapidly in the USA and the UK in particular • Crowdfunding involves the collective effort of a large number of individuals who network and pool small amounts of their capital to finance a new or existing business venture • Social causes remain the most active source of crowdfunding activity Crowdfunding market participants include Indiegogo (launched 2008) which has funded more than 275,000 campaigns, and Kickstarter (launched 2009) which has funded around 100,000 projects globally
  • 32. Profitability of the UK Commercial Banking Industry • Major UK commercial banks’ profitability has fallen quite significantly since the global financial crisis • Low profitability reduces the ability of commercial banks to generate fresh capital internally and reduces their resilience to future domestic and external shocks. • Key factors: 1. Significant rise in regulatory costs 2. Lower interest rates on loans has reduced trading incomes – for example, a steep fall in mortgage rates 3. Financial cost of previous misconduct - UK banks put side another £15 billion relating to past misconduct in their 2015 results, reducing pre-tax profits by around 50%. This includes the costs of miss-selling PPI 4. Commercial banks are now making less money from investment banking services such as currency & commodities trading. Retail banking is traditionally less profitable than the higher risk investment banking side
  • 33. Regulation of the Financial System Financial Economics