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The Behavioral Health Industry From
Wall Street’s Point Of View
MHCA 2010 Summer Conference
August 19, 2010


Anthony Deem
Market Research Associate
Hospitals, Medical/Rx Distribution, Dental, Pharmacy Benefit Management
adeem@cleveland-research.com
Key Points Of Discussion
   Overview of Cleveland Research Company
   Overview of freestanding inpatient behavioral health
    market
   How do investors track the performance of the market?
   Recent trends and outlook on performance.
   Inpatient providers are growing (acquisitions, capacity
    expansion, etc)
   Industry Outlook
      State budget issues – pros and cons.
      Mental Health Parity
      Healthcare reform is a significant positive for the
       industry
   MHCA/CRC partnership
Who is Cleveland Research?
   In June 2006, 43 of us started a new equity research
    firm to form CRC (original firm started in 1996), and
    we now have ~70 employees (over 45 in research).

   Stock Market Research

   What Sets us Apart?
Which Sectors Does CRC Cover?

   Consumer

   Industrial

   Health Care

   Technology
Who Do We Research?
   Hospitals                    Dental
     Universal Health             Henry Schein
      Services                     Patterson Companies
     Psychiatric Solutions        Dentsply
     LifePoint Hospitals          Sirona Dental
     Community Health
      Systems                    Pharmacy Benefit
                                  Management
   Medical/Rx Distribution         Express Scripts
     Cardinal Health               Medco Health
     McKesson                       Solutions
      Corporation                   CVS/Caremark
     Amerisource Bergen
     PSS World Medical
How Do We Do Our Research?


   We talk to:
     Management of Private Companies
     Individuals In The Markets Where UHS and
      PSYS Operate
     Medicaid Agencies & Insurance Companies
     Referral Sources
     Consultants
Inpatient Behavioral Health Industry Overview
   Inpatient Market Is Highly Attractive
      $20 billion domestic market

      73 million people with diagnosable mental illnesses

      Capacity rationalization in early 1990’s created
       imbalance of supply/demand
      Solid pricing and admission growth trends

      Bad debt exposure is minimal

      Low competition from outpatient setting

      Healthcare reform and parity are both positive
       regulatory developments
What Matters To Investors?
   Organic Growth
     Revenue Growth
       Pricing Growth
       Volume Growth
       Patient Day Growth
       Length Of Stay
     Profit Margin Expansion


   Profitable Acquisitions
Recent Trends – Pricing Growth
Medicare/Medicaid pricing growth has leveled off.

Managed care remains strong.

                                                    Psychiatric Solutions
                                                   Pricing Growth Trends


         Payer                                % of Revenue   FY08 Increase   FY09 Increase   FY10 Increase
         Commercial/Private/HMO                   35%            7%              7%              7%
         Medicaid                                 29%            3%              2%              0%
         State Agencies                           15%            3%              3%              3%
         Medicare                                 13%            9%              4%              2%
         Third Party                               8%            5%              3%              3%

         Total                                    100%            5%              4%              3%
         Source: Company reports, Cleveland Research
PPS Was A Positive For Freestanding
 Facilities But A Negative For Acute


                              Acute-Based Psychiatric Units
                       Revenue Per Day & Operating Margin Analysis

  $1,200                                                                      0.0%

    $900                                                                      -20.0%
                                                                              -40.0%
    $600
                                                                              -60.0%
    $300                                                                      -80.0%
      $0                                                                      -100.0%
                2004           2005       2006          2007         2008

  Source: Cleveland Research          Average Revenue Per Day   Average Operating Margin
Pricing Growth (cont’d)
                                                Revenue Per Patient Day
                                                     PSYS & UHS
                   $660
                                                                                               $653
                   $640
                                                                                    $639
                   $620
                                                                          $623
                   $600                                                                        $605
                                                                 $599                $593
                   $580
                                                 $576            $575     $582
                   $560
                                    $552          $550
                   $540
                   $520               $520
                               2006          2007         2008          2009     FY10E      FY11E

                   Source: Company Reports, Cleveland Research
                                                                                    PSYS       UHS



Note: Figures are slightly skewed driven by strong acute volume (higher revenue per patient day)
Recent Trends – Admission Growth
Demand for inpatient services remains high

                                            Admission Growth
                                              PSYS & UHS
          8.0%
                                                          6.8%      6.6%
          7.0%                                     6.4%
          6.0%
                                                                              5%
          5.0%                                4.5%
                                     4.3%                              4.1%        4.2%
          4.0%          3.6%
          3.0%     2.4%                                      2.2%
                                 2.2%
          2.0%
          1.0%
          0.0%
                      2006         2007          2008      2009     FY10E     FY11E
         Source: Company Reports, Cleveland Research                  PSYS    UHS
Recent Trends – Length of Stay
LOS is under pressure due to Medicaid and acute

expansion/demand
                                                 Length of Stay
                                                 PSYS & UHS
            1.5%      1.0%
            1.0%
            0.5%
                             0.0%
            0.0%
           -0.5%
                                                                    -0.2%       -0.5%      -0.5%
           -1.0%
                                    -0.8%               -1.0%
           -1.5%
           -2.0%
                                                  -1.9%                                 -2.0%
           -2.5%
                                                                            -2.3%
           -3.0%
           -3.5%
                                        -3.3%                   -3.5%
           -4.0%
                       2006           2007          2008         2009       FY10E       FY11E

          Source: Company Reports, Cleveland Research                               PSYS        UHS
Recent Trends – Revenue Growth
Revenue growth has trended down slightly due to pricing but

remains strong overall
                                        Same-Facility Revenue Growth
                                               PSYS & UHS
             10.0%
                        8.9%
              9.0%
                               8.1%                 8.0% 7.6%
              8.0%                           7.4%
                                      6.5%
              7.0%                                                        5.9% 5.8%   6.0%
                                                                                             5.8%
              6.0%
                                                                5.1%
              5.0%
                                                                   3.9%
              4.0%
              3.0%
              2.0%
              1.0%
              0.0%
                          2006         2007          2008        2009     FY10E       FY11E
             Source: Company Reports, Cleveland Research                     PSYS     UHS
Recent Trends – Profit Margins
Profit margin expansion has been robust
                                       Profit Margins
                                        PSYS & UHS
         28.0%
                                                                         26.7%
         27.0%
         26.0%                                           25.1%
         25.0%
         24.0%                         23.3%
                      22.9%                                      22.8%
         23.0%
                                                 21.6%
         22.0%
                    20.5%          20.8%
         21.0%
         20.0%
         19.0%
         18.0%
                        2007          2008              2009      YTD-2010
         Source: Company Reports                                 PSYS    UHS
Bed Expansion

Bed expansion initiatives are driven by high demand and
capacity constraints.

                                             Psychiatric Solutions
                                             Annual Bed Expansion

        400                                             380
                                                                     339
                                                                            310
        300


        200
                                       158
                    104
        100


          0
                    2006              2007              2008         2009   2010
         Source: Company reports, Cleveland Research
PSYS & UHS Are Merging
 UHS distinguishes itself in the market differently than
  other for profit publicly traded operators given the
  presence in behavioral health, which will only get
  bigger from here.
 UHS outbid private equity

 UHS believes the industry provides compelling
  growth opportunity which is why they made a $3.1
  billion acquisition
 The deal is highly favorable to UHS and its
  shareholders.
PSYS & UHS Are Merging (cont’d)
Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania and Virginia will be the company’s
largest markets
                                    Universal Health Services, Inc.
                        Behavioral Portfolio Analysis - Post PSYS Transaction

                                            # of                   % of Total   % of Total
          State                           Facilities   # of Beds   Facilities     Beds
          Florida                            19         1,848         10%          10%
          Texas                              14         1,668          7%           9%
          Pennsylvania                       10         1,323          5%           7%
          Virginia                            9         1,248          5%           6%
          Georgia                            12         1,186          6%           6%
          Tennessee                          11          930           6%           5%
          Illinois                            5          902           3%           5%
          Utah                                6          838           3%           4%
          California                         14          613           7%           3%
          South Carolina                      8          605          4%           3%
          Other                              88         8,050         45%          42%
          TOTAL                              196        19,211       100%         100%
          Source: Company Reports
PSYS & UHS Are Merging (cont’d)
From a revenue standpoint, we believe 70% of UHS pro
forma behavioral revenue will be acute and its bed mix will
be 54% RTC and 46% acute.

                           Universal Health Services
                    Behavioral Revenue & Bed Mix Post PSYS

                                             % of Revenue % of Beds
           Acute                                  70%        46%
           Residential Treatment Centers          30%        54%

           Total                                 100%        100%
           Source: Company Reports, Cleveland Research
Industry Outlook. What Now?

   State budget pressures are a risk
      The inpatient industry relies significantly on
       public funding
         State Agency & Medicaid funding is 50%
          of PSYS’s revenue
   A weak economy and mental health parity are
    both near term positives for the industry
   Reform is a meaningful tailwind beginning in
    2014
State Budget Cuts
A Double Edged Sword?
                           State Mental Health Associations
                              Responses To Budget Cuts
            Close state hospitals
      Restrict population served
          Close hospitals/wards
           Employee Furloughs
         Reduce number served
               Reduce Services
   Reduce F unds to Community
                 Hiring Freezes
Reduce Administrative Expenses

                                    0%   20%    40%     60%         80%       100%
Source: NASMHPD Research Institute                            December-09   April-09
Mental Health Parity
   Viewed as a positive driver to commercial inpatient
    demand.
   113 million people currently have parity. The
    incremental benefit to providers comes from self
    insured plans, where parity didn’t apply before. That is
    millions more lives.
   Facilities typically have 30 inpatient days, 20 outpatient
    visits is the standard policy, whereas med/surg they
    don’t have those limits, so those limits will go away.
   The law is intended to remove higher co-pay/deductible
    requirements
Healthcare Reform
            Reform is a meaningful positive for the industry
              Elimination of charity care

              The for profit market has very low exposure
               to uninsured population currently, which will
               create volume upside.
                                                        Healthcare Reform
                                                  Increases To Insured Population


                            2010E    2011E    2012E      2013E      2014E       2015E     2016E    2017E    2018E    2019E
Newly Insured Population
 Medicaid & CHIP                         -1       -2         -3          10         15        17       16       16       16
 Employer                                3        3           3          4           1        -3       -3       -3       -4
 Other                                                                   -2         -3        -5       -5       -5       -5
 Exchanges                                                               8          13        21       23       24       24


Total Insured With Reform      217      220      221         222        244         251      256      257      259      258
 Change vs. No Reform          0%       1%       0%          0%         9%          12%      13%      14%      14%      14%

Source: CBO, Morningstar
MHCA & Cleveland Research
   New collaboration aimed at gathering industry data
     Complete confidentiality for MHCA members at all
      times – the goal of the survey is to better educate
      industry participants about current trends, NOT
      gain insight into individual company performance
     Ongoing time series data that helps to identify key
      inflection points and address important issues
     Actual anecdotal commentary from members

     Aggregation of data into a comprehensive report
      which will be circulated to all MHCA members
Thank You!
Email: adeem@cleveland-research.com
         Call: (216) 649-7232

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The Behavioral Health Industry From Wall Street’s Point Of View

  • 1. The Behavioral Health Industry From Wall Street’s Point Of View MHCA 2010 Summer Conference August 19, 2010 Anthony Deem Market Research Associate Hospitals, Medical/Rx Distribution, Dental, Pharmacy Benefit Management adeem@cleveland-research.com
  • 2. Key Points Of Discussion  Overview of Cleveland Research Company  Overview of freestanding inpatient behavioral health market  How do investors track the performance of the market?  Recent trends and outlook on performance.  Inpatient providers are growing (acquisitions, capacity expansion, etc)  Industry Outlook  State budget issues – pros and cons.  Mental Health Parity  Healthcare reform is a significant positive for the industry  MHCA/CRC partnership
  • 3. Who is Cleveland Research?  In June 2006, 43 of us started a new equity research firm to form CRC (original firm started in 1996), and we now have ~70 employees (over 45 in research).  Stock Market Research  What Sets us Apart?
  • 4. Which Sectors Does CRC Cover?  Consumer  Industrial  Health Care  Technology
  • 5. Who Do We Research?  Hospitals  Dental  Universal Health  Henry Schein Services  Patterson Companies  Psychiatric Solutions  Dentsply  LifePoint Hospitals  Sirona Dental  Community Health Systems  Pharmacy Benefit Management  Medical/Rx Distribution  Express Scripts  Cardinal Health  Medco Health  McKesson Solutions Corporation  CVS/Caremark  Amerisource Bergen  PSS World Medical
  • 6. How Do We Do Our Research?  We talk to:  Management of Private Companies  Individuals In The Markets Where UHS and PSYS Operate  Medicaid Agencies & Insurance Companies  Referral Sources  Consultants
  • 7. Inpatient Behavioral Health Industry Overview  Inpatient Market Is Highly Attractive  $20 billion domestic market  73 million people with diagnosable mental illnesses  Capacity rationalization in early 1990’s created imbalance of supply/demand  Solid pricing and admission growth trends  Bad debt exposure is minimal  Low competition from outpatient setting  Healthcare reform and parity are both positive regulatory developments
  • 8. What Matters To Investors?  Organic Growth  Revenue Growth Pricing Growth Volume Growth Patient Day Growth Length Of Stay  Profit Margin Expansion  Profitable Acquisitions
  • 9. Recent Trends – Pricing Growth Medicare/Medicaid pricing growth has leveled off. Managed care remains strong. Psychiatric Solutions Pricing Growth Trends Payer % of Revenue FY08 Increase FY09 Increase FY10 Increase Commercial/Private/HMO 35% 7% 7% 7% Medicaid 29% 3% 2% 0% State Agencies 15% 3% 3% 3% Medicare 13% 9% 4% 2% Third Party 8% 5% 3% 3% Total 100% 5% 4% 3% Source: Company reports, Cleveland Research
  • 10. PPS Was A Positive For Freestanding Facilities But A Negative For Acute Acute-Based Psychiatric Units Revenue Per Day & Operating Margin Analysis $1,200 0.0% $900 -20.0% -40.0% $600 -60.0% $300 -80.0% $0 -100.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Cleveland Research Average Revenue Per Day Average Operating Margin
  • 11. Pricing Growth (cont’d) Revenue Per Patient Day PSYS & UHS $660 $653 $640 $639 $620 $623 $600 $605 $599 $593 $580 $576 $575 $582 $560 $552 $550 $540 $520 $520 2006 2007 2008 2009 FY10E FY11E Source: Company Reports, Cleveland Research PSYS UHS Note: Figures are slightly skewed driven by strong acute volume (higher revenue per patient day)
  • 12. Recent Trends – Admission Growth Demand for inpatient services remains high Admission Growth PSYS & UHS 8.0% 6.8% 6.6% 7.0% 6.4% 6.0% 5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.3% 4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 3.6% 3.0% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 FY10E FY11E Source: Company Reports, Cleveland Research PSYS UHS
  • 13. Recent Trends – Length of Stay LOS is under pressure due to Medicaid and acute expansion/demand Length of Stay PSYS & UHS 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% -0.2% -0.5% -0.5% -1.0% -0.8% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -1.9% -2.0% -2.5% -2.3% -3.0% -3.5% -3.3% -3.5% -4.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 FY10E FY11E Source: Company Reports, Cleveland Research PSYS UHS
  • 14. Recent Trends – Revenue Growth Revenue growth has trended down slightly due to pricing but remains strong overall Same-Facility Revenue Growth PSYS & UHS 10.0% 8.9% 9.0% 8.1% 8.0% 7.6% 8.0% 7.4% 6.5% 7.0% 5.9% 5.8% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 5.1% 5.0% 3.9% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 FY10E FY11E Source: Company Reports, Cleveland Research PSYS UHS
  • 15. Recent Trends – Profit Margins Profit margin expansion has been robust Profit Margins PSYS & UHS 28.0% 26.7% 27.0% 26.0% 25.1% 25.0% 24.0% 23.3% 22.9% 22.8% 23.0% 21.6% 22.0% 20.5% 20.8% 21.0% 20.0% 19.0% 18.0% 2007 2008 2009 YTD-2010 Source: Company Reports PSYS UHS
  • 16. Bed Expansion Bed expansion initiatives are driven by high demand and capacity constraints. Psychiatric Solutions Annual Bed Expansion 400 380 339 310 300 200 158 104 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Company reports, Cleveland Research
  • 17. PSYS & UHS Are Merging  UHS distinguishes itself in the market differently than other for profit publicly traded operators given the presence in behavioral health, which will only get bigger from here.  UHS outbid private equity  UHS believes the industry provides compelling growth opportunity which is why they made a $3.1 billion acquisition  The deal is highly favorable to UHS and its shareholders.
  • 18. PSYS & UHS Are Merging (cont’d) Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania and Virginia will be the company’s largest markets Universal Health Services, Inc. Behavioral Portfolio Analysis - Post PSYS Transaction # of % of Total % of Total State Facilities # of Beds Facilities Beds Florida 19 1,848 10% 10% Texas 14 1,668 7% 9% Pennsylvania 10 1,323 5% 7% Virginia 9 1,248 5% 6% Georgia 12 1,186 6% 6% Tennessee 11 930 6% 5% Illinois 5 902 3% 5% Utah 6 838 3% 4% California 14 613 7% 3% South Carolina 8 605 4% 3% Other 88 8,050 45% 42% TOTAL 196 19,211 100% 100% Source: Company Reports
  • 19. PSYS & UHS Are Merging (cont’d) From a revenue standpoint, we believe 70% of UHS pro forma behavioral revenue will be acute and its bed mix will be 54% RTC and 46% acute. Universal Health Services Behavioral Revenue & Bed Mix Post PSYS % of Revenue % of Beds Acute 70% 46% Residential Treatment Centers 30% 54% Total 100% 100% Source: Company Reports, Cleveland Research
  • 20. Industry Outlook. What Now?  State budget pressures are a risk  The inpatient industry relies significantly on public funding  State Agency & Medicaid funding is 50% of PSYS’s revenue  A weak economy and mental health parity are both near term positives for the industry  Reform is a meaningful tailwind beginning in 2014
  • 21. State Budget Cuts A Double Edged Sword? State Mental Health Associations Responses To Budget Cuts Close state hospitals Restrict population served Close hospitals/wards Employee Furloughs Reduce number served Reduce Services Reduce F unds to Community Hiring Freezes Reduce Administrative Expenses 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: NASMHPD Research Institute December-09 April-09
  • 22. Mental Health Parity  Viewed as a positive driver to commercial inpatient demand.  113 million people currently have parity. The incremental benefit to providers comes from self insured plans, where parity didn’t apply before. That is millions more lives.  Facilities typically have 30 inpatient days, 20 outpatient visits is the standard policy, whereas med/surg they don’t have those limits, so those limits will go away.  The law is intended to remove higher co-pay/deductible requirements
  • 23. Healthcare Reform  Reform is a meaningful positive for the industry  Elimination of charity care  The for profit market has very low exposure to uninsured population currently, which will create volume upside. Healthcare Reform Increases To Insured Population 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E Newly Insured Population Medicaid & CHIP -1 -2 -3 10 15 17 16 16 16 Employer 3 3 3 4 1 -3 -3 -3 -4 Other -2 -3 -5 -5 -5 -5 Exchanges 8 13 21 23 24 24 Total Insured With Reform 217 220 221 222 244 251 256 257 259 258 Change vs. No Reform 0% 1% 0% 0% 9% 12% 13% 14% 14% 14% Source: CBO, Morningstar
  • 24. MHCA & Cleveland Research  New collaboration aimed at gathering industry data  Complete confidentiality for MHCA members at all times – the goal of the survey is to better educate industry participants about current trends, NOT gain insight into individual company performance  Ongoing time series data that helps to identify key inflection points and address important issues  Actual anecdotal commentary from members  Aggregation of data into a comprehensive report which will be circulated to all MHCA members