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- 1. Learning from the UK’s Intelligent Infrastructure Scenarios Andrew Curry, The Futures Company
- 2. Foresight’s Intelligent Infrastructure Futures • Foresight: takes a long-term view of long- term issues where science and technology can be influential • Intelligent Infrastructure Systems project was sponsored by the Department of Transport, which still uses the scenarios as part of its long-term thinking • The project combined drivers analysis, scenarios development, systems work, and socio-technical studies, as well as ‘state of science’ reviews from leading academics - social scientists as well as technologists • The output is in the public domain and can be freely downloaded: http://www.foresight.gov.uk/OurWork/Comple tedProjects/IIS/KeyInfo/Index.asp 2
- 3. Summarising the scenarios Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure Good Intentions Perpetual Motion High Impact Low impact Transport Transport Tribal Trading Urban Colonies Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure 3
- 4. Technology applied Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure Perpetual Motion High Impact Low impact Transport Transport Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure 4
- 5. Designing out demand Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure High Impact Low impact Transport Transport ‘At a gross density of 50 dph, 5,000 dwellings can be within a 10 minute walk of public services, schools and viable public Urban Colonies transport.’ MJP Architects, ‘Sustainable Suburbia’ Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure 54
- 6. The impact of resource limits Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure High Impact Low impact Transport Transport Tribal Trading Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure 64
- 7. Reduction through rationing Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure Economic Insecurity Good Intentions High Impact Low impact Transport Transport Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure 74
- 8. Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure Economic Insecurity Good Intentions Perpetual Motion High Impact Low impact Transport Transport Tribal Trading Urban Colonies Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure 8
- 9. Reflecting on the scenarios • The only reliable way to reduce personal transport demand is to focus on access not mobility – this takes a generation – but it is happening • Technology can help - but it needs to be applied to reducing demand for private personal transport – otherwise it reduces equity 9
- 10. Reflecting on the scenarios • So far reducing personal transport use has only happened generally as a result of fuel price increases – but this is a risky way to manage transport outcomes • Decisive changes in transport behaviour are likely to come quickly only through rationing or pricing – but car users resent it – so this is a tough political challenge – there need to be clear benefits associated with the change 10
- 11. “How do you want your kids to live? Do you want to walk or drive to get Enrique Penalosa bread? That' s the basis of thinking about cities.” http://www.resurgence.org/magazine/article518-CITIES-OF-JOY.html 11
- 12. Thank you Andrew Curry andrew.curry@thefuturescompany.com +44 (0) 20 7955 1839 © 2010 The Futures Company
- 13. Annex : scenario highlights 13