Indo-Saudi relation has witnessed upswing during past few decades, reinforcing economic and socio-cultural ties. Beside trade, investment and cultural ties, India enjoys a very special kind of relation with the strongest economy of the Gulf region. Currently, around 3 million plus strong Indian community are living and working in the Saudi Arabia, which is the largest expatriate community in the Kingdom, contributing around 30 per cent of the total expatriates of KSA. In last 10 years (barring 2016), India succeeded in deploying around 7.50 lakh Indian blue collar workers in GCC countries, out of them roughly 3 lakh arrived in KSA. So, there was a considerable growth in the outflow of Indian workers to the region. However, with the emergence of some new phenomena on the India’s side of policy makers since 2014, there has been a constant decline in the outflow of Indian blue collar workers, resulting nearly 50 percent downfall in last two years. This study strived to discover the causes of decline in India’s share of migrants’ employment in the Gulf nations in general and in KSA in particular, while bringing some very striking facts and figures that how this decline did not resemble in other countries which also send workers to the Gulf. Alongside this, the study also explored how and why foreign employers (FEs) were compelled not to hire workers from India but from Pakistan and Bangladesh. The result of the study demonstrated that when we observe India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh together in terms of their share of blue collar workers in KSA, we find that till 2014, India’s share in the oil-rich Saudi Arabia was on average 50 percent, for Pakistan it was 48 percent and for Bangladesh it was merely 2 percent. But, in 2016, within a period of 2 years, India’s share shockingly slumped down to 21 percent, while Pakistan and Bangladesh unexpectedly rose up to 60 and 19 percent respectively. Furthermore, this is not only in the case of Saudi Arabia. If we go country by country, we will find the same situation in almost whole Gulf region. In the end, the study suggests how the serious situation has surfaced on the fate of Indian migrant workers, and tries to fetch the government’s attention to take cognizance of this issue and act swiftly to resolve it as soon as possible for avoiding further downfall of Indian workers in oil-rich Gulf nations. The research is based on an analytical and investigative study of the data available on websites of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, which deal with overseas employment’s regulation and statistics. Moreover, to illustrate the argument with more clarity, a number of tables and charts have been drawn with lots of interesting figures.

1. Asif Nawaz
M.Phil, Centre For West Asian Studies
Jamia Millia Islamia, NewDelhi

3.  The relationship between India and the Gulf
countries is historically very old and warm.
 Trade and commerce is the most important
pillar of the relationship between India and
the Gulf countries.
 A glimpse of the strong cultural and
economic ties between them reflects from
two main points:
 More than 50 percent of India's oil consumption is
imported from these Gulf countries.
 Indian citizens have emerged as the largest
migrant community in the Arabian Peninsula.

4.  According to the MEA website, by December 2016,
more than 3 crore Indian nationals are living in 208
countries around the world.
 Among them, 84 lakhs, which is 28 percent of total
number, are living and working in 6 GCC countries.
 Total population of foreign nationals in GCC countries
is 2.5 crore, out of them, Indians are 34 percent.
 And among Gulf nations, highest number of Indians
are in KSA, that is 30,53,567 (35%)
Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arab UAE Total
2016 3,16,175 9,23,260 7,96,001 6,00,000 30,53,567 2,803,751 84,92,754

5.  Post independence in 1947, New Delhi has developed its full-
fledged diplomatic relation with Riyadh, which has witnessed an
upswing during past few decades, reinforcing more economic and
socio-cultural ties between the two nations.
 In trade and Commerce, according to the financial year of 2014–
15, Saudi Arabia is our 4th largest trade partner after China,
United States and United Arab Emirates.
 As the largest supplier of crude oil to India, KSA is a major source
of energy as we import around 20 percent of our crude oil need.
 Beside trade, investment and cultural ties, India has a very
special kind of relation with the strongest economy of the Gulf
region.
 around 30 per cent of the total expatriates of Saudi Arabia, are
Indians, which makes them the largest expatriate community in
the Kingdom.
 The Indians are the most preferred community by their
employers not only in KSA but in the whole region due to their
expertise, sense of discipline, law abiding and peace loving
nature.

6.  According to the World Bank statistics, in recent
years, India has received around $ 70 billion in
remittance from Indians across the globe, which
is the highest amount of remittance received by
any country in the world from its immigrant
citizens in a period of one year.
 This amount contributes about 4 percent to
India's GDP, which is almost three times more
than that of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to
India.
 Out of this $ 70 billion, approximately 52
percent come from GCC countries, among them,
UAE and Saudi Arabia have the biggest share of
35 and 30 percent respectively.

7. Source Country Amount (USD)
1 UAE 12.57 billion
2 Saudi Arab 10.51 billion
3 Kuwait 4.69 billion
4 Qatar 3.97 billion
5 Oman 3.07 billion
6 Bahrain 1.25 billion
Total 36.05 billion

9.  The increase in inflow of remittance to India
from Gulf countries is the result of increase in
the number of Indian migrants going into Gulf
workforce.
 The MEA’s website for Overseas Employment
Division “www.emigrate.gov.in” says that in
2007, the deployment of Indian workers in six
GCC countries was only 1,73,607.
 Since then, there is a constant increase, and in
the last 5 years (barring 2016), India deployed an
average of 7.5 lakh semi-skilled and unskilled
workers in the Gulf countries for employment.
Out of them approximately 3.25 lakh arrived in
Saudi Arabia alone.

10. UAE KSA Qatar Kuwait Oman Bahrain Total
2011 1,41,627 2,93,880 42,556 45,164 75,671 14,912 6,13,810
2012 1,41,362 3,56,489 63,137 55,843 84,503 20,148 7,21,482
2013 2,02,980 3,53,565 78,380 72,628 63,554 17,317 7,88,424
2014 2,24,037 3,29,882 75,983 80,420 51,317 14,207 7,75,846
2015 2,25,512 3,06,642 59,340 66,543 85,028 15,619 7,58,684
https://emigrate.gov.in/ext/fetchECReport.action Accessed on 07/02/17

12.  The biggest increase has been witnessed in
KSA, as in 2007 India sent only 36,860
workers, but after that it deployed more
than 2 lakhs every year and the highest
deployments was 3,56,489 in 2012.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
36860
227657
280991 274544
293880
356489 353565
329882
306642
165356
Employment to KSA From India since 2007

13.  However, two new phenomena that emerged vis-à-
vis in last two to three year in India’s policy
makers’ side, have deeply affected Indian blue
collar workers going into the Gulf workforce, and
their strength in the region dwindled significantly.
 And surprisingly, India’s share of jobs in the Gulf has
been diverted to Pakistan and Bangladesh.
UAE KSA Qatar Kuwait Oman Bahrain Total
2014 224037 329882 75983 80420 51317 14207 7,75,846
2015 225512 306642 59340 66543 85028 15619 7,58,684
2016 163731 165356 30619 72402 63224 11964 5,07,296
Decline
(in 2016)
-61781 -141286 -28721 +5859 -21804 -3655 -251388
https://emigrate.gov.in/ext/fetchECReport.action Accessed on 07/02/17

14. This situation developed mainly due to two factors;
1) Minimum Referral Wages fixed by the government of India to regulate
the wages of Indian migrant workers employed in different occupations in
countries falling under the category of “emigration check required” (ECR). The
major rationale for putting this concept, as stated by the Ministry of External
Affairs , is “to ensure that an Indian [migrant] worker is not put to a
disadvantageous position by the [foreign employer] by unilaterally fixing wages,
which might be much less than the prevailing wages in the host country as well
as in India”. Among other origin countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
Nepal, that send the workers to the Gulf region, India’s referral wages are the
highest as cited by International Labor Organization (ILO) in a study named
‘MINIMUM REFERRAL WAGES FOR INTERNATIONAL MIGRANT WORKERS FROM
INDIA: AN ASSESSMENT’ (S K Sasikumar and Seeta Sharma, September 2016).
Therefore, from the day one, this regulation was criticized and had met bitter
resistance by foreign employers in all GCC countries. Some countries at that
time had threatened to reduce their Indian workforces and hire more, lower-
paid workers from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal instead. After this discussion,
we are now well-positioned to judge that what is the role of this hike in
minimum referral wages in reducing Indian migrant workers to the Gulf region.

15. 2) Emigrate Lengthy Procedure. In May 2015, the government of
India introduced a unique computerized system called “e-
Migrate” To regulate overseas employment especially for
protection of less educated blue collar workers as a measure to
ensure protection against possible exploitation of the Indian
workers by their employers. This project which was actually
aimed to protect Indian laborers from frauds and to ensure
minimum wages to them, has not worked in their favor, as
foreign employers have switched over to hiring laborers from
Bangladesh and Pakistan. Because, The Gulf-based employers are
not quite tech-savvy, and they are generally known for not
having much awareness about modern technology especially
computers to fulfill such burdensome formalities and emigration
processes. Because, the new system requires all the foreign
employers to register in the eMigrate system. This made
compulsory for the entire foreign employers of Indian blue collar
workers to fill in a registration application which is then vetted
by the respective Indian mission. Now by using only this system,
any foreign employer can raise the demand for Indian blue collar
workers and seek a permit to recruit Indians in online manner.

16. In recent year, many news reports stated that due the low oil
prices, political instability in the region, ISIS and Saudi’s war with
Yemeni Huthis, the economy of the Gulf countries, especially
Saudi economy is crumbling heavily. The politicians and rulers in
the region have started talking about budget cuts and the need to
attack subsidies and so on. This is the reality, nobody can afford
to deny. However, a question arises here, has it also affected the
number of migrant workers going into the Gulf workforce in
general and Saudi Arabia in particular?
The leading English-language daily newspaper from Jeddah ‘Saudi
Gazette’ has published a news report on November 28, 2016. The
newspaper cites in its report that according to the General
Authority for Statistics (GAS), there has been a 12.17 percent
increase in the number of expatriates till the third quarter survey
for this year. The GAS survey further showed that the number of
expatriates in the Kingdom reached 11.6 million by mid 2016. In
2015 there were only 10.2 million expats in the Kingdom.

17. So, the hike in Minimum Referral Wages, and the
complexities and technical faults in the eMigrate
system which led to expiration of a big number of
visas annoyed overmuch the foreign employers,
and finally many of them made their mind to give
the India’s share of Gulf employment to some
other countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Since then, we have lost around 40 percent jobs in
the Gulf workforce which was by and large
fetched by our neighboring countries Pakistan and
Bangladesh.

19. When we compare the combined
shares of these three countries, we
find that in 2013 India’s share reached
up to 57 percent as shown in the
chart. But since then, India is facing a
constant decline and in 2016 it dipped
down to merely 27 percent. See the
following table to comprehend more
precisely the loss that has been
inflicted on Indian workers:

20. Yearly Share Of Jobs In The Gulf For Ind. Pak. & Bang. Since 2011
Yearly total Emigrants from
Ind. Pak. & Ban. to the Gulf UAE KSA Kuwait Qatar Oman Bahrain Total Percentage
2011
(15,22,049)
India 141627 293880 45164 42556 75671 14912 6,13,810 40%
Pakistan 156353 222247 173 5121 53525 10641 4,48,060 30%
Bangladesh 232,739 15,039 29 13,111 135,265 13,996 4,60,179 30%
2012
(18,07,524)
India 141362 356489 55843 63137 84503 20148 7,21,482 40%
Pakistan 182630 358560 5 7320 69407 10530 6,28,452 34%
Bangladesh 215,452 21,232 2 23,301 170,326 21,777 4,57,590 26%
2013
(13,71,840)
India 202980 353565 72628 78380 63554 17317 7,88,424 57%
Pakistan 273234 270502 229 8119 47794 9600 3,39,748 25%
Bangladesh 14,241 12,654 6 57,584 105,748 25,155 2,43,668 18%
2014
(17,52,734)
India 224037 329882 80420 75983 51317 14207 7,75,846 44%
Pakistan 350522 312489 132 10042 39793 9226 7,22,204 41%
Bangladesh 24232 10657 3094 87575 105748 23378 2,54,684 15%
2015
(20,53,699)
India 225512 306642 66543 59340 85028 15619 7,58,684 37%
Pakistan 326986 522750 164 12741 47788 9029 9,19,458 44%
Bangladesh 25271 58270 17472 123965 129859 20720 3,75,557 19%
2016
(19,01,356)
India 163731 165356 72402 30619 63224 11964 5,07,296 27%
Pakistan 295647 462598 770 9706 45085 8226 8,22,032 43%
Bangladesh 8131 143913 39188 120382 188247 72167 5,72,028 30%
2017 (Feb)
(3,06,062)
India 25352 13278 9271 5636 9081 1248 63,866 21%
Pakistan 49957 29135 70 2407 8536 1479 91,584 30%
Bangladesh 746 94528 8422 17972 19289 9655 150612 49%
For India https://emigrate.gov.in/ext/preViewPdfGenRptAction.action

21.  in 2013, India deployed 7,88,424 (57%)workers in
all six GCC countries, and in the same year,
Pakistan and Bangladesh deployed 3,39,748 (25%)
and 2,43,668 (18%) workers respectively. But,
within 3 years, in 2016 a surprised change
occurred in their shares. India’s share went down
to merely 5,07,296 (27%) and Pakistan and
Bangladesh’s share went up to 8,22,032 (43%)
and 5,72,028 (30) respectively.
 The trend of inflow of migrant workers in GCC
countries in the early two months of this year,
shows that in 2017 India can only deploy around
4 lakhs workers in the Gulf because in January
and February India could only deploy merely
63,866. Also, observe the number of Pakistani
and Bangladeshi workers, how much it has shot
up in these two months.

22. MigrationInflowfromIndia,PakistanandBangladeshintoSaudiArabia
Year India Pakistan Bangladesh
2011 2,93,880 2,22,247 15,039
2012 3,56,489 3,58,560 21,232
2013 3,53,565 2,70,502 12,654
2014 3,29,882 3,12,489 10,657
2015 3,06,642 5,22,750 58,270
2016 165356 4,62,598 1,43,913
https://emigrate.gov.in/ext/fetchECReport.action Accessed on
07/02/17
http://www.beoe.gov.pk/reports-and-statisticsAccessedon08/02/17 http://www.bmet.gov.bd/BMET/viewStatReport.action?reportnumber=20
Accessedon08/02/17

23.  In other words, the share of Bangladesh in Saudi migrant
workforce was constant around 2 percent for many past
years until 2014, however in 2015 and 2016 it rose
unexpectedly up to 7 and 19 percent respectively. As for
as Pakistan’s share is concerned, it was always less than
of India’s share, however, only in 2015 and 2016 Pakistan
overtook India and unpredictably reached 60 percent
from previous average 45 percent per year.

24. 21%
India 19%
Banglade
hs
60%
Pakistan
Migrant Workers to KSA in 2016
50%
India
2%
Banglades
h
48%
Pakistan
Migrant Workers to KSA in 2014

25. The trend of inflow of migrant workers in GCC
countries in the early two months of this year, shows
that with the current pace, India can only deploy
around 4 lakhs workers in 2017 in the Gulf, because
in January and February 2017 India could only
deploy merely 63,866 (21%). This will be again a
downfall of more than one lakh in comparison with
the previous year of 2016, and in comparison with
2013, it will be a complete fifty percent slump. Also,
look into the number of Pakistani and Bangladeshi
workers, how much it has shot up in these two
months. Both the nations have reached 91,584
(30%) and 1,50,612 (49%) respectively in first two
months of the current year. So, the present scenario
indicates that with this pace each of them will attain
the target of something between 7 to 8 lakhs in
2017.

26. Indeed, it is need of the hour that
Indian government and its
institutions concerned with the
emigration related affairs, ponder
upon reviewing its policies and
regulations that give an impression
of being the main factors in the
downfall of India’s blue collar
workers in GCC countries, mainly in
KSA.
Here, I would like to point out some
uneasy areas which the government
can think of for improving the
whole emigration clearance system
of blue collar workers for the Gulf
workforce that has lot of potentials
to boost India’s economy by
providing bundle of overseas jobs in
the Gulf region primarily in Saudi
Arabia.
1. Government should scrap
the provision of
employer’s registration
on emigrate system and
should bring back the
previous procedure of
emigration clearance of
workers for deployment
in GCC countries, that
was in practice before
2015.
2. On Minimum Referral
Wages (MRW), I would
suggest that government
should give some room
for negotiation among
the main stakeholders to
reach a common ground.

27. Sources
https://emigrate.gov.in
http://www.bmet.gov.bd/
http://www.beoe.gov.pk/

28. Thank You