The document breaks down the USD 53 billion US new mobility market in 2019. It shows that ride-hailing (TNCs like Uber and Lyft) dominated the market with USD 43.9 billion, followed by taxis at USD 7.8 billion. Growing modes include e-scooter sharing at USD 0.35 billion and bike sharing at USD 0.2 billion, while car sharing is smaller at USD 0.25 billion. The document provides the calculations and data sources for estimating the market size of each mode.
1. Breaking down USD 53
billion US New Mobility
Market - 2019
Amit Agrawal
amitka01@gmail.com
www.linkedin.com/in/amitka01
01.04.2020
1
2. USD 53 Billion Gross Booking Value
2019 Urban Mobility Services
DRT &
Paratransit
(NA)
Bike Sharing
(0.2)
eScooter Sharing
(0.35)
TNC Market
Car Sharing
(0.25)
Taxis
(7.8)
Declining Growing
Ride hailing
(43.9)
Figures in bracket represent annual market size in 2019 in USD billion.
In US, TNCs overlap with Bikesharing and paratransit (through municipal partnerships) but not with escooter sharing or car sharing
Amit Agrawal; www.linkedin.com/in/amitka01
Feedback : amitka01@gmail.com
01.04.2020
!2
3. !3
[ USD 31.6 for Uber ] + [ USD 12.3 billion for Lyft ]
[ Uber US Gross Booking (Ride hailing) ] + [ Lyft US Gross Booking ] ;
Uber US GBV = USD 8.23 billion X 76% / 19.8%
[Uber US Annual revenue - Uber Reported] X [(Global) share of Ride hailing business - Uber Reported] / [Global take rate of Uber - Uber reported] ;
Lyft US GBV = USD 3.60 billion X 91.2% / 28.7%
[Lyft US + Canada Annual revenue - Lyft reported] X [US population /(US + Canada Population)] / [Take rate of Lyft - Bloomberg] ;
USD 43.9 Billion
2019 Ride-hailing Market
Image : Business Insider
Amit Agrawal; www.linkedin.com/in/amitka01
Feedback : amitka01@gmail.com
01.04.2020
4. !4
[ USD 14.1 billion ] X [ 144.73/131.77 ] X [ 50%]
[ Size in 2012 - Schaller (2015) ] X [US Consumer Price Inflation - Urban (2012-2019) ] X [ Decline in Taxi business 2012-2018- Schaller (2018) ]
USD 7.8 Billion
2019 US Taxi and Limousine Market
Image : amazon.com
Amit Agrawal; www.linkedin.com/in/amitka01
Feedback : amitka01@gmail.com
01.04.2020
5. !5
[ 23376 ] X [ 1-9.8% ] X [ USD 12000 ]
[ North America fleet size - Shaheen (2020) ] X [ Exclude Canada by share of population ] X [ Revenue per car per annum (own assumption) ]
USD 0.25 Billion
2019 US Car Sharing Market
Image : dreamstime.com
Amit Agrawal; www.linkedin.com/in/amitka01
Feedback : amitka01@gmail.com
01.04.2020
6. !6
100 million trips X USD 3.50 / trip
[ 2.5 growth factor (own assumption) X ~40 million trips in 2018 - NATCO] X [Price per trip - NATCO 2018]
USD 0.35 Billion
2019 escooter-sharing Market
Image : wuppertal-total.de
Amit Agrawal; www.linkedin.com/in/amitka01
Feedback : amitka01@gmail.com
01.04.2020
7. !7
45.5 million trips X USD 2.75 / trip X USD 51 mn/40 mn X 1.26
[ Number of bike trips nationally - NATCO 2018) ] X [ Revenue per bike (max) - NATCO 2018 ] X [ Sponsorship upside (New York citibike) -2019] X [ Trip growth rate between 2017 and 2018 - NATCO ]
USD 0.20 Billion
2019 Bikesharing Market
Image : computerbild.de
Amit Agrawal; www.linkedin.com/in/amitka01
Feedback : amitka01@gmail.com
01.04.2020
8. Feedback and discussions welcome with experts in the field!
Amit Agrawal
www.linkedin.com/in/amitka01
amitka01@gmail.com
!8 Amit Agrawal; www.linkedin.com/in/amitka01
Feedback : amitka01@gmail.com
01.04.2020