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Distribution of US Market Returns                                                                                             1949

CRSP 1–10 Index Returns by Year                                                                                               20.2
                                                                                                                              1951
1926–2011                                                                                                                     20.7
                                                                                                                              1963
                                                                                                                              21.0
                                                                                                 1970                         1982
                                                                                                  0.0                         21.0
                                                                                                 1953                         1944
                                                                                                  0.7                         21.3
                                                                                                 2011            1993         1996
                Positive Years:          64 (74%)                                                 0.8            11.1         21.4
                Negative Years:          22 (26%)                                                1960            2004         1983
                                                                                                  1.2            12.0         22.0
                In 2008, the US stock market                                                     1987            1959         1979
                experienced its second worst                                                      1.7            12.7         22.6
                performance year since 1926.                                                     1948            1952         1998           1997
                                                                                                  2.1            13.4         24.3           31.4
                                                                                                 1939            1968         1955           2003
                In 2009, US market performance                                                    2.9            14.1         25.2           31.6
                was in the top quartile of historical                                            1947            1965         1999           1985
                calendar year returns.                                                            3.6            14.5         25.3           32.2
                                                              1973             1966              1934            2006         1976           1936
                                                              -18.1            -8.7               4.3            15.5         26.8           32.3
                                                              1929             1932              1984            1942         1961           1980
                                                              -14.6            -8.7               4.5            16.0         26.9           32.8
                                                              2000             1940              2007            1964         1938           1927
                                                              -11.4            -7.1               5.8            16.1         28.1           33.4
                                                              2001             1990              2005            1971         1943           1991
                                                              -11.1            -6.0               6.2            16.1         28.4           34.7
                                                              1969             1946              1978            1986         1967           1995
                                                              -10.9            -5.9               7.5            16.2         28.7           36.8
                                              1930            1962             1977              1956            1972         2009           1945            1935
                                              -28.5           -10.2            -4.3               8.3            16.8         28.8           38.1            44.3
                              2008            1974            1957             1981              1926            2010         1989           1975            1958
                              -36.7           -27.0           -10.1            -3.6               9.2            17.9         28.9           38.8            45.0
               1931           1937            2002            1941             1994              1992            1988         1950           1928            1954              1933
               -43.5          -34.7           -21.1           -10.0            -0.1               9.8            18.0         29.6           38.9            50.0              57.1
          -50% to -40%    -40% to -30%    -30% to -20%    -20% to -10%     -10% to 0%        0% to 10%         10% to 20%   20% to 30%   30% to 40%      40% to 50%      50% to 60%

                                                                                         Annual Return Range

In US dollars.
CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. The CRSP 1-10 Index measures the performance of the total US stock market, which it
defines as the aggregate capitalization of all securities listed on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ exchanges. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their
performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.                               S1248.3

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Distribution of the_us_market_returns

  • 1. Distribution of US Market Returns 1949 CRSP 1–10 Index Returns by Year 20.2 1951 1926–2011 20.7 1963 21.0 1970 1982 0.0 21.0 1953 1944 0.7 21.3 2011 1993 1996 Positive Years: 64 (74%) 0.8 11.1 21.4 Negative Years: 22 (26%) 1960 2004 1983 1.2 12.0 22.0 In 2008, the US stock market 1987 1959 1979 experienced its second worst 1.7 12.7 22.6 performance year since 1926. 1948 1952 1998 1997 2.1 13.4 24.3 31.4 1939 1968 1955 2003 In 2009, US market performance 2.9 14.1 25.2 31.6 was in the top quartile of historical   1947 1965 1999 1985 calendar year returns. 3.6 14.5 25.3 32.2 1973 1966 1934 2006 1976 1936 -18.1 -8.7 4.3 15.5 26.8 32.3 1929 1932 1984 1942 1961 1980 -14.6 -8.7 4.5 16.0 26.9 32.8 2000 1940 2007 1964 1938 1927 -11.4 -7.1 5.8 16.1 28.1 33.4 2001 1990 2005 1971 1943 1991 -11.1 -6.0 6.2 16.1 28.4 34.7 1969 1946 1978 1986 1967 1995 -10.9 -5.9 7.5 16.2 28.7 36.8 1930 1962 1977 1956 1972 2009 1945 1935 -28.5 -10.2 -4.3 8.3 16.8 28.8 38.1 44.3 2008 1974 1957 1981 1926 2010 1989 1975 1958 -36.7 -27.0 -10.1 -3.6 9.2 17.9 28.9 38.8 45.0 1931 1937 2002 1941 1994 1992 1988 1950 1928 1954 1933 -43.5 -34.7 -21.1 -10.0 -0.1 9.8 18.0 29.6 38.9 50.0 57.1 -50% to -40% -40% to -30% -30% to -20% -20% to -10% -10% to 0% 0% to 10% 10% to 20% 20% to 30% 30% to 40% 40% to 50% 50% to 60%                 Annual Return Range In US dollars. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. The CRSP 1-10 Index measures the performance of the total US stock market, which it defines as the aggregate capitalization of all securities listed on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ exchanges. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. S1248.3

Editor's Notes

  1. Talking Points: The table shows that the average value and small cap premiums in the US equity market have persisted over various performance periods. The higher relative returns reflect compensation for bearing higher risk, as indicated by higher standard deviation. The value premium is defined as the difference between the average returns of value stocks and growth stocks (value minus growth). Value is defined as the top 30% of NYSE stocks by book-to-market ratio (high-BtM stocks); growth is defined as the bottom 30% of the NYSE by BtM (low-BtM stocks). The small cap premium is defined as the difference between the average returns of small cap and large cap stocks (or small minus large). The size breakpoint for small and large is the median NYSE market equity (i.e., the bottom 50% for small and top 50% for large).