1. ForesightDevelopmentand
ImplementationEffectiveness:
LessonsfromtheBrazilianExperience
AntônioLuísAulicino
IDS–InstituteforSustainableDevelopment
alaulicino@idsust.com.br
IsakKruglianskas
SchoolofEconomics,Business
AdministrationandAccounting–FEA-USP
ikruglia@usp.br
ThirdInternationalSevilleConferenceon
Future-OrientedTechnologyAnalysis(FTA):
Impactsandimplicationsforpolicyanddecision-making
16th-17thOctober2008

2. ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
Presentation
1.Introduction/Objective
2.TheoreticalBackground
3.Methodology
4.Resultsandpolicyimpact/implications
5.Conclusionsandrecommendations
6.BibligraphicalReferences

3. Introduction
Objective
ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
TheobjectiveistoshowwhereBrazilstandsinthepreparationof
foresightstudiesandtolookattheBrazilianProgramofIndustrial
TechnologicalProspective’casestudy,coordinatedbytheDITin
Portuguese(STI)andtheDepartmentofProductionDevelopment
(DPD)oftheBrazilianMDIFT.
ToidentifyhowtheprocessforpreparingaforesightstudyinBrazil
wasperformedandhowtheeffectivenessofitsimplementation
influencedtheformulationofpublicpolicies.
HowtheforesightstudiesBrazilianwaspreparedandtheroleplayed
bythestakeholdersintheprocess.

4. Possible Futures
Realizable
Introduction/TheoreticalBackground
Foresight
ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
StrategicVisionoffuture
Retrospective
Stakeholders
•Networks
•InterativeandParticipative
Approaches
•Makedecisions
•PublicPolicies
Present
Actions
Actions
Past
Desired
SystematicStudies
MARTIN(2001)
FOREN(2001)
GAVIGANandSCAPOLO(1999)
CHILCOTE(1998)

5. ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
Methodology(1/3)
ResearchModel
AULICINO
(2006),with
participationof
AtillaHavas

6. ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
Methodology(2/3)
•TheBrazilianProgramofIndustrialTechnologicalProspective,was
Brazilianinscopeanditsobjectivewastosupportpublicpoliciesfor
science,technologyandinnovation,consideringfourforesightstudiesin
sectorscoveringtheBrazilianterritory.
•Thiscasestudyisdividedintofourothercasestudies,whichare
prospectivestudiesofproductivechains:
-transformedplastics;
-civilconstruction;
-textilesandclothesmanufacturing;and
-furnitureandwood.
CaseStudychosenProgramaBrasileiro
deProspectivaTecnológicaIndustrial

7. ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
Methodology(3/3)
•Primarydataforthisresearchwerecollectedviain-depthinterviews.
•Secondarydatawerecollectedfromdocumentsprovidedbythe
CoordinatoroftheBrazilianProgramandtheChiefofOfficeoftheMinistry
(DIT/MDIFT),whosuppliedthefollowinginformation:
•theresultofthemeetingswithUNIDO;
•thecontractbetweentheentities;
•thedraftsofthemeetingsoftheProspectiveCommittee;
•thediscussionsabouttheproductivechainsandthetopics;
•theplanningofthetrainingcoursefortheteamsofthefourProductiveChains
thatpreparedtheprospectivestudies;
•theevaluationsandvariouspresentationsoftheteams;
•thedevelopmentofeachprospectivestudy;and
•thedifficultiesandallthereportspreparedbytheteamsinallphasesofthe
Program.
CaseStudy:BrazilianProgramof
IndustrialTechnologicalProspective
ProgramaBrasileiro
deProspectivaTecnológicaIndustrial

8. ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
Resultsandpolicyimpact/implications(1/3)
FuturestudiesoftheBrazilianProgram
ofIndustrialTechnologicalProspective
ProgramaBrasileiro
deProspectivaTecnológicaIndustrial
•Providedagoodnationalexperienceinvolvingfourproductivechains;
•Involvedthepeopleintheseproductivechains;and
•Presentedachallengeforthoseresponsibletoelaboratefuturestudies
usingexpertsintheproductivechainschosenwhowereunfamiliarwiththe
processofpreparingprospectivestudies.

9. ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
Resultsandpolicyimpact/implications(2/3)
FuturestudiesoftheBrazilianProgram
ofIndustrialTechnologicalProspective
ProgramaBrasileiro
deProspectivaTecnológicaIndustrial
•Thepositiveoutcomes,insum,were:
–theresultsoftheforesightstudyoftheCivilConstructionProductionChain,
whichindirectlycontributedtothepreparationofResolution3177/2004ofthe
CentralBankofBrazilandofLaw10931/2004;
–thedevelopmentoftheSeminar“CorporateStrategies,BrazilianIndustrialPolicy
andNewApproachestoPromotingCompetitiveness”forenterprises,heldatthe
SãoPauloStateFederationofIndustries(FIESP),mainlyfordecision-makers;
and
–theimportanceascribedtoitsforesightstudybytheCompetitivenessForumof
theProductionChainofTransformingPlasticGoods,whichusedtheresultsof
thestudiesasabasisforforecastthedemandinthatsector.

10. ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
Resultsandpolicyimpact/implications(3/3)
FuturestudiesoftheBrazilianProgram
ofIndustrialTechnologicalProspective
ProgramaBrasileiro
deProspectivaTecnológicaIndustrial
Someofthecircumstancesthatpossiblyimpairedtheresultsofthe
Program’sforesightstudies,asaninstrumenttohelpimprovethe
developmentprocessofBrazil’sforesightstudies,were:
•thechangeoffocus,asfromthesecondstage,intheelaborationoftheforesight
studiesoftheCompetitivenessForums’ProductionChainsascomparedtothe
ActionPlanpreparedinthefirststage;
•thefailuretotakesustainabledevelopmentintoaccountintheobjectivesofthese
studies;
•theinabilitytoestablishnetworks,whichwasoneoftheconcernsoftheActionPlan
;and
•thefailureoftheprospectivestudiesto:
-properlydealwiththeissuesofcontinuityintheprocessofimplementingthese
results;
-achieveabsorptionoftheforesightconceptbythebusinesssector;and
-beincludedintheformulationofpublicpoliciesfortheProductionChainsstudied.

11. ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
Conclusionsandrecommendations(1/4)
•BothintheBrazilianProgramofIndustrialTechnologicalForesightandinthe
foresightstudiesofeachProductionChain,thewayinwhichtheirdevelopmentwas
conducteddidnotproducethedesiredeffects;inotherwords,unlikewhathappensin
theEuropeanUnionandinitscountries,thesestudiesdidnotbecomeatoolforthe
formulationofpublicpolicyconcerningscience,technologyandinnovation.
•Oneshouldhighlight,however,thattheCivilConstructionProductionChainforesight
studyindirectlyhelpedtogeneratearesolutionandalaw.
•TheBraziliangovernmenthaddifficultyusingtheforesightstudies’resultsto
formulatepublicpolicies,mainlybecauseitwasdifficulttogetthestakeholders
involvedduringthedevelopmentofthestudies.Itrequires:spendingalotoftime,
systematiccontinuity,andpersistence,astheEuropeanUnionhasshowninits
foresightstudiesofthelastfewyears.
•Onemustalsohighlightthattheforesightstudiesdidnottakeintoaccount
sustainabledevelopmentequallyintermsofitseconomic,socialandenvironmental
dimensions.
Conclusions

12. Possible Futures
ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
NoStrategicVisionofFutureTogether
Retrospective
RealizableDesired
Somestakeholders
•Notnetwork
•NotInterativeandParticipative
Approaches
•Governmentmakedecisions
NoActionsTogether
NoActionsTogether
Past
WebDelphi
Individual
Executive
Government
Specialist
TeamorIndvidual
NotSystematicStudies
?
Conclusionsandrecommendations(2/4)
Conclusions
MCT(2003);
ProjetoTendências(2003);
CGEE(2004);MDIC(2005);
Brasil3tempos(2007)

13. ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
Conclusionsandrecommendations(3/4)
Asaconsequenceoftheresults,werecommendedthattheForesightStudy
preparationprocessbeparticipativeandinvolvethestakeholders,inordertoimprove
theconceptionandperformanceoftheprocessinordertogetbetterresults,capableof
trulyprovidingsupportforpublicpolicies.
Recommendations:
ImmediateShort-termMeddle-termLong-term
Stakeholders
AvaliaçãodosResultadosdosEstudosForesight
Education
SteeringCommitee
MainUser
Theme1Theme2Theme3...ThemeN
Foresightelaborationprocess
Econômic
Demographic
DIMENSIONS
Social
Environment
Cultural
Politic
Phases:
Pre-foresight
PrincipalForesight
Post-foresight
Others
•Company
•ONGs
•Union
•Government–3
Powers
•Academy
•Media
•Comunity
•Consumer
•Others
Thecnology
ParticipativeForesight

14. Past
Retrospective
ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
Possible Futures
StrategicVisionoffuture
Actions
Actions
Present
•Networks
•InterativeandParticipative
Approaches
•Makedecisions
•PublicPolicies
Stakeholders
SystematicsStudies
Realisables
Desireds
Conclusionsandrecommendations(4/4)
Recommendations:ParticipativeForesight

15. ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
BibligraphicalReferences(1/3)
AULICINO,AntônioL.TesedeDoutorado:ForesightparaPolíticasdeCT&IcomDesenvolvimento
Sustentável:EstudodeCasoBrasil.SãoPaulo.FEA-USP,2006.
AULICINO,AntônioL.;KRUGLIANSKAS,Isak.AContribuiçãodeForesightTecnológiconaFormulação
dePolíticasdeCT&IdoPaís-EstudodeCaso:MCT-EstudoProspectardoBrasil.In:SIMPÓSIODE
GESTÃODAINOVAÇÃOTECNOLÓGICA,23,p.2004,p.Curitiba.Anais/NúcleodePolíticaseGestão
TecnológicadaUniversidadeSãoPaulo.Curitiba,2004,pp.2337-2350.
BACEN–BANCOCENTRALDOBRASIL.RESOLUÇÃO3177,of2004.Brasília:BACEN,
08/Mar./2004.
BARRÉ,Remi.Science&Technologyforesightasacollectivelearningprocessinviewofstrategic
decisionmaking-overviewandinterpretativeframework.OST(ObservatoryofScienceand
Technology)andCEST(CenterforExplorationofScienceandTechnology).MonitoringForesight
Activities.EUROPEANCOMMISSION–JointResearchCentre–JRC,EuropeanScienceand
TechnologyObservatory–ESTO.InstituteforProspectiveTechnologicalStudies–IPTS.Seville,pp.
116-138,June2001.
BRASIL3TEMPOS.Brasília,2007.Athttp://www.nae.gov.br/brasil3tempos.htm,retrievedon
15/Feb./2007.
CASTRO,A.M.G.;WRIGHT,J.;GOEDERT,W.J.MetodologiaparaViabilizaçãodoModelode
DemandanaPesquisaAgropecuária.In:SimpósiodeGestãodaInovaçãoTecnológica,19,1996,São
Paulo.Anais.SãoPaulo,1996,pp.169-190.
CBIC–CâmaraBrasileiradaIndústriadaConstrução.Leinº10.931/200:UmMarcoparaoMercado
Imobiliário.Brasília:CBIC,2004.
CGEE–CentrodeGestãoeEstudosEstratégicos.DiversosEstudosProspectivosBrasileiros.Brasília:
CGEE,2004.Athttp://www.cgee.org.br/atividades/index.php?a=1,retrievedon21/Jan./2004.

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BibligraphicalReferences(2/3)
CHILCOTE,RonaldH.TeoriasdePolíticaComparativa:abuscadeumparadigmareconsiderado.São
Paulo:EditoraVozes,1998.
FOREN-ForesightforRegionalDevelopmentNetwork.APracticalGuidetoRegionalForesight.
EUROPEANCOMMISSIONResearchDirectorateGeneral–STRATAProgramme.Seville,December
2001.
GAVIGAN,JamesP.;SCAPOLO,Fabiana.AComparisonofNationalForesightExercises.Bromley:
Foresight,v.1,n.6,pp.494-517,December1999.
GEUS,Ariede.AEmpresaViva:comoasorganizaçõespodemaprenderaprosperareseperpetuar.6.
ed.RiodeJaneiro:EditoraCampus,1998.
GODET,Michel.ManueldeProspectitiveStratégiqueTome2:L’artetlaméthode.2ed.Paris:Dunod,
2001.
HAVAS,Attila.EvolvingForesightinaSmallTransitionEconomy:TheDesign,UseandRelevanceof
ForesightMethodsinHungary.JournalofForecasting,v.22,issue2-3,pp.179-201,March/April2003.
MARCIAL,ElaineC.;GRUMBACH,RaulJ.S.CenáriosProspectivos:Comoconstruirumfuturomelhor.
1.ed.RiodeJaneiro:EditoraFGV,2002.
MARTIN,BenR.TechnologyForesightinaRapidlyGlobalizingEconomy.Vienna.Proceedingsofthe
RegionalConference,April2001.
MCT–MinistériodaCiênciaeTecnologia–EstudoProspectar:UmExercíciodeProspecção
TecnológicaNacional.Brasília:Junho2003.At
http://www.mct.gov.br/cct/prospectar/Relatorio_3/sumario.htm.Retrievedon14/Nov./2003.
MDIC.RelatóriosFinaisdosEstudosProspectivosdasCadeiasProdutivasEscolhidas.Brasília:MDIC,
2004.Athttp://www.desenvolvimento.com.br.Retrievedon10/May/2005.
NISTEP-NationalInstituteofScienceandTechnologyPolicy.Tokyo:2001.Athttp://www.nistep.go.jp.
Retrievedon14/Nov./2003.

17. ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
BibligraphicalReferences(3/3)
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deTecnologiaIndustrial–STI/MDIC,2000.Brasília.At
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15/Aug./2005.
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18. ForesightDevelopmentandImplementationEffectiveness:LessonsfromtheBrazilian
Thankyou!
AntônioLuísAulicino
IDS–InstituteforSustainableDevelopment
alaulicino@idsust.com.br
IsakKruglianskas
SchoolofEconomics,BusinessAdministrationand
Accounting–FEA-USP
ikruglia@usp.br