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Why the US has really gone broke
The economic disaster that is military keynesianism
by Chalmers Johnson
Le Monde Diplomatique February 2008
Global confidence in the US economy has reached zero, as was
proved by last month’s stock market meltdown. But there is an
enormous anomaly in the US economy above and beyond the
subprime mortgage crisis, the housing bubble and the prospect
of recession: 60 years of misallocation of resources, and
borrowings, to the establishment and maintenance of a
militaryindustrial
complex as the basis of the nation’s economic life
The military adventurers in the Bush administration have much
in common with the corporate leaders of the defunct energy
company Enron. Both groups thought that they were the
“smartest guys in the room” — the title of Alex Gibney’s
prizewinning
film on what went wrong at Enron. The
neoconservatives in the White House and the Pentagon
outsmarted themselves. They failed even to address the
problem of how to finance their schemes of imperialist wars and
global domination.
As a result, going into 2008, the United States finds itself in the
anomalous position of being unable to pay for its own elevated
living standards or its wasteful, overly large military
establishment. Its government no longer even attempts to
reduce the ruinous expenses of maintaining huge standing
armies, replacing the equipment that seven years of wars have
destroyed or worn out, or preparing for a war in outer space
against unknown adversaries. Instead, the Bush administration
puts off these costs for future generations to pay or repudiate.
This fiscal irresponsibility has been disguised through many
manipulative financial schemes (causing poorer countries to
lend us unprecedented sums of money), but the time of
reckoning is fast approaching.
There are three broad aspects to the US debt crisis. First, in the
current fiscal year (2008) we are spending insane amounts of
money on “defence” projects that bear no relation to the
national
security of the US. We are also keeping the income tax burdens
on the richest segment of the population at strikingly low
levels.
Second, we continue to believe that we can compensate for the
accelerating erosion of our base and our loss of jobs to foreign
countries through massive military expenditures — “military
Keynesianism” (which I discuss in detail in my book Nemesis:
The Last Days of the American Republic). By that, I mean the
mistaken belief that public policies focused on frequent wars,
huge expenditures on weapons and munitions, and large
standing armies can indefinitely sustain a wealthy capitalist
economy. The opposite is actually true.
Third, in our devotion to militarism (despite our limited
resources), we are failing to invest in our social infrastructure
and other requirements for the long-term health of the US.
These are what economists call opportunity costs, things not
done because we spent our money on something else. Our
public education system has deteriorated alarmingly. We have
failed to provide health care to all our citizens and neglected
our
responsibilities as the world’s number one polluter. Most
important, we have lost our competitiveness as a manufacturer
for civilian needs, an infinitely more efficient use of scarce
resources than arms manufacturing.
Fiscal disaster
It is virtually impossible to overstate the profligacy of what our
government spends on the military. The Department of
Defense’s planned expenditures for the fiscal year 2008 are
larger than all other nations’ military budgets combined. The
supplementary budget to pay for the current wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan, not part of the official defence budget, is itself
�
larger than the combined military budgets of Russia and China.
Defence-related spending for fiscal 2008 will exceed $1 trillion
for the first time in history. The US has become the largest
single seller of arms and munitions to other nations on Earth.
Leaving out President Bush’s two on-going wars, defence
spending has doubled since the mid-1990s. The defence budget
for fiscal 2008 is the largest since the second world war.
Before we try to break down and analyse this gargantuan sum,
there is one important caveat. Figures on defence spending are
notoriously unreliable. The numbers released by the
Congressional Reference Service and the Congressional
Budget Office do not agree with each other. Robert Higgs,
senior fellow for political economy at the Independent Institute,
says: “A well-founded rule of thumb is to take the Pentagon’s
(always well publicised) basic budget total and double it” (1).
Even a cursory reading of newspaper articles about the
Department of Defense will turn up major differences in
statistics about its expenses. Some 30-40% of the defence
budget is “black”,” meaning that these sections contain hidden
expenditures for classified projects. There is no possible way to
know what they include or whether their total amounts are
accurate.
There are many reasons for this budgetary sleight-of-hand —
including a desire for secrecy on the part of the president, the
secretary of defence, and the military-industrial complex — but
the chief one is that members of Congress, who profit
enormously from defence jobs and pork-barrel projects in their
districts, have a political interest in supporting the Department
of
Defense. In 1996, in an attempt to bring accounting standards
within the executive branch closer to those of the civilian
economy, Congress passed the Federal Financial Management
Improvement Act. It required all federal agencies to hire outside
auditors to review their books and release the results to the
public. Neither the Department of Defense, nor the Department
of Homeland Security, has ever complied. Congress has
complained, but not penalised either department for ignoring the
law. All numbers released by the Pentagon should be regarded
as suspect.
In discussing the fiscal 2008 defence budget, as released on
7 February 2007, I have been guided by two experienced and
reliable analysts: William D Hartung of the New America
Foundation’s Arms and Security Initiative (2) and Fred Kaplan,
defence correspondent for Slate.org (3). They agree that the
Department of Defense requested $481.4bn for salaries,
operations (except in Iraq and Afghanistan), and equipment.
They also agree on a figure of $141.7bn for the “supplemental”
budget to fight the global war on terrorism — that is, the two
ongoing
wars that the general public may think are actually
covered by the basic Pentagon budget. The Department of
Defense also asked for an extra $93.4bn to pay for hitherto
unmentioned war costs in the remainder of 2007 and, most
creatively, an additional “allowance” (a new term in defence
budget documents) of $50bn to be charged to fiscal year 2009.
This makes a total spending request by the Department of
Defense of $766.5bn.
2
But there is much more. In an attempt to disguise the true size
of the US military empire, the government has long hidden
major military-related expenditures in departments other than
Defense. For example, $23.4bn for the Department of Energy
goes towards developing and maintaining nuclear warheads;
and $25.3bn in the Department of State budget is spent on
foreign military assistance (primarily for Israel, Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Republic, Egypt
and Pakistan). Another $1.03bn outside the official Department
of Defense budget is now needed for recruitment and
reenlistment
incentives for the overstretched US military, up from
a mere $174m in 2003, when the war in Iraq began. The
Department of Veterans Affairs currently gets at least $75.7bn,
50% of it for the long-term care of the most seriously injured
among the 28,870 soldiers so far wounded in Iraq and 1,708 in
�
Afghanistan. The amount is universally derided as inadequate.
Another $46.4bn goes to the Department of Homeland Security.
Missing from this compilation is $1.9bn to the Department of
Justice for the paramilitary activities of the FBI; $38.5bn to the
Department of the Treasury for the Military Retirement Fund;
$7.6bn for the military-related activities of the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration; and well over $200bn in
interest for past debt-financed defence outlays. This brings US
spending for its military establishment during the current fiscal
year, conservatively calculated, to at least $1.1 trillion.
Military Keynesianism
Such expenditures are not only morally obscene, they are
fiscally unsustainable. Many neo-conservatives and poorly
informed patriotic Americans believe that, even though our
defence budget is huge, we can afford it because we are the
richest country on Earth. That statement is no longer true. The
world’s richest political entity, according to the CIA’s World
Factbook, is the European Union. The EU’s 2006 GDP was
estimated to be slightly larger than that of the US. Moreover,
China’s 2006 GDP was only slightly smaller than that of the
US,
and Japan was the world’s fourth richest nation.
A more telling comparison that reveals just how much worse
we’re doing can be found among the current accounts of various
nations. The current account measures the net trade surplus or
deficit of a country plus cross-border payments of interest,
royalties, dividends, capital gains, foreign aid, and other
income.
In order for Japan to manufacture anything, it must import all
required raw materials. Even after this incredible expense is
met, it still has an $88bn per year trade surplus with the US and
enjoys the world’s second highest current account balance
(China is number one). The US is number 163 — last on the list,
worse than countries such as Australia and the UK that also
have large trade deficits. Its 2006 current account deficit was
$811.5bn; second worst was Spain at $106.4bn. This is
unsustainable.
It’s not just that our tastes for foreign goods, including
imported
oil, vastly exceed our ability to pay for them. We are financing
them through massive borrowing. On 7 November 2007, the US
Treasury announced that the national debt had breached _$9
trillion for the first time. This was just five weeks after
Congress
raised the “debt ceiling” to $9.815 trillion. If you begin in 1789,
at
the moment the constitution became the supreme law of the
land, the debt accumulated by the federal government did not
top $1 trillion until 1981. When George Bush became president
in January 2001, it stood at approximately $5.7 trillion. Since
then, it has increased by 45%. This huge debt can be largely
explained by our defence expenditures.
The top spenders
The world’s top 10 military spenders and the approximate
amounts each currently budgets for its military establishment
are:
Rank
Country
Military budget
1.
United States (FY 2008 budget)
$623bn
2.
China (2004)
$65bn
3.
Russia
$50bn
4.
France (2005)
$45bn
5.
United Kingdom
$42.8bn
6.
Japan (2007)
$41.75bn
7.
Germany (2003)
$35.1bn
8.
Italy (2003)
$28.2bn
9.
South Korea (2003)
$21.1bn
10.
India (2005 est.)
$19bn
World total military expenditures (2004 est)
$1,100bn
World total (minus the US)
$500bn
�
Our excessive military expenditures did not occur over just a
few short years or simply because of the Bush administration’s
policies. They have been going on for a very long time in
accordance with a superficially plausible ideology, and have
now become so entrenched in our democratic political system
that they are starting to wreak havoc. This is military
Keynesianism — the determination to maintain a permanent war
economy and to treat military output as an ordinary economic
product, even though it makes no contribution to either
production or consumption.
This ideology goes back to the first years of the cold war.
During
the late 1940s, the US was haunted by economic anxieties. The
great depression of the 1930s had been overcome only by the
war production boom of the second world war. With peace and
demobilisation, there was a pervasive fear that the depression
would return. During 1949, alarmed by the Soviet Union’s
detonation of an atomic bomb, the looming Communist victory
in
the Chinese civil war, a domestic recession, and the lowering of
the Iron Curtain around the USSR’s European satellites, the US
sought to draft basic strategy for the emerging cold war. The
result was the militaristic National Security Council Report 68
(NSC-68) drafted under the supervision of Paul Nitze, then head
of the Policy Planning Staff in the State Department. Dated
14 April 1950 and signed by President Harry S Truman on
30 September 1950, it laid out the basic public economic
policies that the US pursues to the present day.
In its conclusions, NSC-68 asserted: “One of the most
significant lessons of our World War II experience was that the
American economy, when it operates at a level approaching full
efficiency, can provide enormous resources for purposes other
than civilian consumption while simultaneously providing a
high
standard of living” (4).
With this understanding, US strategists began to build up a
massive munitions industry, both to counter the military might
of
the Soviet Union (which they consistently overstated) and also
to maintain full employment, as well as ward off a possible
return of the depression. The result was that, under Pentagon
leadership, entire new industries were created to manufacture
large aircraft, nuclear-powered submarines, nuclear warheads,
intercontinental ballistic missiles, and surveillance and
communications satellites. This led to what President
Eisenhower warned against in his farewell address of
6 February 1961: “The conjunction of an immense military
establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American
experience” — the military-industrial complex.
By 1990 the value of the weapons, equipment and factories
devoted to the Department of Defense was 83% of the value of
all plants and equipment in US manufacturing. From 1947 to
1990, the combined US military budgets amounted to $8.7
trillion. Even though the Soviet Union no longer exists, US
reliance on military Keynesianism has, if anything, ratcheted
up,
thanks to the massive vested interests that have become
entrenched around the military establishment. Over time, a
commitment to both guns and butter has proven an unstable
configuration. Military industries crowd out the civilian
economy
and lead to severe economic weaknesses. Devotion to military
Keynesianism is a form of slow economic suicide.
Higher spending, fewer jobs
On 1 May 2007, the Center for Economic and Policy Research
of Washington, DC, released a study prepared by the economic
and political forecasting company Global Insight on the
longterm
economic impact of increased military spending. Guided by
economist Dean Baker, this research showed that, after an
initial demand stimulus, by about the sixth year the effect of
increased military spending turns negative. The US economy
has had to cope with growing defence spending for more than
60 years. Baker found that, after 10 years of higher defence
�
spending, there would be 464,000 fewer jobs than in a scenario
that involved lower defence spending.
Baker concluded: “It is often believed that wars and military
spending increases are good for the economy. In fact, most
economic models show that military spending diverts resources
from productive uses, such as consumption and investment,
and ultimately slows economic growth and reduces
employment” (5).
These are only some of the many deleterious effects of military
Keynesianism.
It was believed that the US could afford both a massive military
establishment and a high standard of living, and that it needed
both to maintain full employment. But it did not work out that
way. By the 1960s it was becoming apparent that turning over
the nation’s largest manufacturing enterprises to the
Department of Defense and producing goods without any
investment or consumption value was starting to crowd out
civilian economic activities. The historian Thomas E Woods Jr
observes that, during the 1950s and 1960s, between one-third
and two-thirds of all US research talent was siphoned off into
the military sector (6). It is, of course, impossible to know what
innovations never appeared as a result of this diversion of
resources and brainpower into the service of the military, but it
was during the 1960s that we first began to notice Japan was
outpacing us in the design and quality of a range of consumer
goods, including household electronics and automobiles.
Can we reverse the trend?
Nuclear weapons furnish a striking illustration of these
anomalies. Between the 1940s and 1996, the US spent at least
$5.8 trillion on the development, testing and construction of
nuclear bombs. By 1967, the peak year of its nuclear stockpile,
the US possessed some 32,500 deliverable atomic and
hydrogen bombs, none of which, thankfully, was ever used.
They perfectly illustrate the Keynesian principle that the
government can provide make-work jobs to keep people
employed. Nuclear weapons were not just America’s secret
weapon, but also its secret economic weapon. As of 2006, we
still had 9,960 of them. There is today no sane use for them,
while the trillions spent on them could have been used to solve
the problems of social security and health care, quality
education and access to higher education for all, not to speak of
the retention of highly-skilled jobs within the economy.
The pioneer in analysing what has been lost as a result of
military Keynesianism was the late Seymour Melman (1917-
2004), a professor of industrial engineering and operations
research at Columbia University. His 1970 book, Pentagon
Capitalism: The Political Economy of War, was a prescient
analysis of the unintended consequences of the US
preoccupation with its armed forces and their weaponry since
the onset of the cold war. Melman wrote: “From 1946 to 1969,
the United States government spent over $1,000bn on the
military, more than half of this under the Kennedy and Johnson
administrations — the period during which the
[Pentagondominated]
state management was established as a formal
institution. This sum of staggering size (try to visualize a
billion
of something) does not express the cost of the military
establishment to the nation as a whole. The true cost is
measured by what has been foregone, by the accumulated
deterioration in many facets of life, by the inability to alleviate
human wretchedness of long duration.”
5
In an important exegesis on Melman’s relevance to the current
American economic situation, Thomas Woods writes:
“According to the US Department of Defense, during the four
decades from 1947 through 1987 it used (in 1982 dollars) $7.62
trillion in capital resources. In 1985, the Department of
Commerce estimated the value of the nation’s plant and
�
equipment, and infrastructure, at just over _$7.29 trillion… The
amount spent over that period could have doubled the American
capital stock or modernized and replaced its existing stock” (7).
The fact that we did not modernise or replace our capital assets
is one of the main reasons why, by the turn of the 21st century,
our manufacturing base had all but evaporated. Machine tools,
an industry on which Melman was an authority, are a
particularly
important symptom. In November 1968, a five-year inventory
disclosed “that 64% of the metalworking machine tools used in
US industry were 10 years old or older. The age of this
industrial
equipment (drills, lathes, etc.) marks the United States’ machine
tool stock as the oldest among all major industrial nations, and
it
marks the continuation of a deterioration process that began
with the end of the second world war. This deterioration at the
base of the industrial system certifies to the continuous
debilitating and depleting effect that the military use of capital
and research and development talent has had on American
industry.”
Nothing has been done since 1968 to reverse these trends and
it shows today in our massive imports of equipment — from
medical machines like _proton accelerators for radiological
therapy (made primarily in Belgium, Germany, and Japan) to
cars and trucks.
Our short tenure as the world’s lone superpower has come to an
end. As Harvard economics professor Benjamin Friedman has
written: “Again and again it has always been the world’s
leading
lending country that has been the premier country in terms of
political influence, diplomatic influence and cultural influence.
It’s no accident that we took over the role from the British at
the
same time that we took over the job of being the world’s
leading
lending country. Today we are no longer the world’s leading
lending country. In fact we are now the world’s biggest debtor
country, and we are continuing to wield influence on the basis
of
military prowess alone” (8).
Some of the damage can never be rectified. There are,
however, some steps that the US urgently needs to take. These
include reversing Bush’s 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for the
wealthy, beginning to liquidate our global empire of over 800
military bases, cutting from the defence budget all projects that
bear no relationship to national security and ceasing to use the
defence budget as a Keynesian jobs programme.
If we do these things we have a chance of squeaking by. If we
don’t, we face probable national insolvency and a long
depression.
The three trillion dollar war
The cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan
conflicts have grown to staggering
proportions
By Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes
The Bush Administration was wrong about the benefits of the
war and it was wrong about the costs of the war. The president
and his advisers expected a quick, inexpensive conflict.
Instead, we have a war that is costing more than anyone could
have imagined.
The cost of direct US military operations - not even including
long-term costs such as taking care of wounded veterans -
already exceeds the cost of the 12-year war in Vietnam and is
more than double the cost of the Korean War.
And, even in the best case scenario, these costs are projected
to be almost ten times the cost of the first Gulf War, almost a
third more than the cost of the Vietnam War, and twice that of
the First World War. The only war in our history which cost
more was the Second World War, when 16.3 million U.S.
troops fought in a campaign lasting four years, at a total cost
(in 2007 dollars, after adjusting for inflation) of about $5
trillion
(that's $5 million million, or £2.5 million million). With
virtually
the entire armed forces committed to fighting the Germans and
Japanese, the cost per troop (in today's dollars) was less than
$100,000 in 2007 dollars. By contrast, the Iraq war is costing
upward of $400,000 per troop.
Most Americans have yet to feel these costs. The price in
blood has been paid by our voluntary military and by hired
contractors. The price in treasure has, in a sense, been
financed entirely by borrowing. Taxes have not been raised to
pay for it - in fact, taxes on the rich have actually fallen. Deficit
spending gives the illusion that the laws of economics can be
repealed, that we can have both guns and butter. But of
course the laws are not repealed. The costs of the war are real
even if they have been deferred, possibly to another
generation.
On the eve of war, there were discussions of the likely costs.
Larry Lindsey, President Bush's economic adviser and head of
the National Economic Council, suggested that they might
reach $200 billion. But this estimate was dismissed as
“baloney” by the Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld. His
deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, suggested that postwar reconstruction
could pay for itself through increased oil revenues. Mitch
Daniels, the Office of Management and Budget director, and
Secretary Rumsfeld estimated the costs in the range of $50 to
$60 billion, a portion of which they believed would be financed
by other countries. (Adjusting for inflation, in 2007 dollars,
they
were projecting costs of between $57 and $69 billion.) The
tone of the entire administration was cavalier, as if the sums
involved were minimal.
Even Lindsey, after noting that the war could cost $200 billion,
went on to say: “The successful prosecution of the war would
be good for the economy.” In retrospect, Lindsey grossly
underestimated both the costs of the war itself and the costs to
the economy. Assuming that Congress approves the rest of
the $200 billion war supplemental requested for fiscal year
2008, as this book goes to press Congress will have
appropriated a total of over $845 billion for military operations,
reconstruction, embassy costs, enhanced security at US
bases, and foreign aid programmes in Iraq and Afghanistan.
�
As the fifth year of the war draws to a close, operating costs
(spending on the war itself, what you might call “running
expenses”) for 2008 are projected to exceed $12.5 billion a
month for Iraq alone, up from $4.4 billion in 2003, and with
Afghanistan the total is $16 billion a month. Sixteen billion
dollars is equal to the annual budget of the United Nations, or
of all but 13 of the US states. Even so, it does not include the
$500 billion we already spend per year on the regular
expenses of the Defence Department. Nor does it include
other hidden expenditures, such as intelligence gathering, or
funds mixed in with the budgets of other departments.
Because there are so many costs that the Administration does
not count, the total cost of the war is higher than the official
number. For example, government officials frequently talk
about the lives of our soldiers as priceless. But from a cost
perspective, these “priceless” lives show up on the Pentagon
ledger simply as $500,000 - the amount paid out to survivors in
death benefits and life insurance. After the war began, these
were increased from $12,240 to $100,000 (death benefit) and
from $250,000 to $400,000 (life insurance). Even these
increased amounts are a fraction of what the survivors might
have received had these individuals lost their lives in a
senseless automobile accident. In areas such as health and
safety regulation, the US Government values a life of a young
man at the peak of his future earnings capacity in excess of
$7 million - far greater than the amount that the military pays in
death benefits. Using this figure, the cost of the nearly 4,000
American troops killed in Iraq adds up to some $28 billion.
The costs to society are obviously far larger than the numbers
that show up on the government's budget. Another example of
hidden costs is the understating of US military casualties. The
Defence Department's casualty statistics focus on casualties
that result from hostile (combat) action - as determined by the
military. Yet if a soldier is injured or dies in a night-time
vehicle
accident, this is officially dubbed “non combat related” - even
though it may be too unsafe for soldiers to travel during
daytime.
In fact, the Pentagon keeps two sets of books. The first is the
official casualty list posted on the DOD website. The second,
hard-to-find, set of data is available only on a different website
and can be obtained under the Freedom of Information Act.
This data shows that the total number of soldiers who have
been wounded, injured, or suffered from disease is double the
number wounded in combat. Some will argue that a
percentage of these non-combat injuries might have happened
even if the soldiers were not in Iraq. Our new research shows
that the majority of these injuries and illnesses can be tied
directly to service in the war.
From the unhealthy brew of emergency funding, multiple sets
of books, and chronic underestimates of the resources
required to prosecute the war, we have attempted to identify
how much we have been spending - and how much we will, in
the end, likely have to spend. The figure we arrive at is more
than $3 trillion. Our calculations are based on conservative
assumptions. They are conceptually simple, even if
occasionally technically complicated. A $3 trillion figure for
the
total cost strikes us as judicious, and probably errs on the low
side. Needless to say, this number represents the cost only to
the United States. It does not reflect the enormous cost to the
rest of the world, or to Iraq.
From the beginning, the United Kingdom has played a pivotal
role - strategic, military, and political - in the Iraq conflict.
Militarily, the UK contributed 46,000 troops, 10 per cent of the
total. Unsurprisingly, then, the British experience in Iraq has
paralleled that of America: rising casualties, increasing
operating costs, poor transparency over where the money is
going, overstretched military resources, and scandals over the
�
squalid conditions and inadequate medical care for some
severely wounded veterans.
Before the war, Gordon Brown set aside £1 billion for war
spending. As of late 2007, the UK had spent an estimated £7
billion in direct operating expenditures in Iraq and Afghanistan
(76 per cent of it in Iraq). This includes money from a
supplemental “special reserve”, plus additional spending from
the Ministry of Defence.
The special reserve comes on top of the UK's regular defence
budget. The British system is particularly opaque: funds from
the special reserve are “drawn down” by the Ministry of
Defence when required, without specific approval by
Parliament. As a result, British citizens have little clarity about
how much is actually being spent.
In addition, the social costs in the UK are similar to those in the
US - families who leave jobs to care for wounded soldiers, and
diminished quality of life for those thousands left with
disabilities.
By the same token, there are macroeconomic costs to the UK
as there have been to America, though the long-term costs
may be less, for two reasons. First, Britain did not have the
same policy of fiscal profligacy; and second, until 2005, the
United Kingdom was a net oil exporter.
We have assumed that British forces in Iraq are reduced to
2,500 this year and remain at that level until 2010. We expect
that British forces in Afghanistan will increase slightly, from
7,000 to 8,000 in 2008, and remain stable for three years. The
House of Commons Defence Committee has recently found
that despite the cut in troop levels, Iraq war costs will increase
by 2 per cent this year and personnel costs will decrease by
only 5 per cent. Meanwhile, the cost of military operations in
Afghanistan is due to rise by 39 per cent. The estimates in our
model may be significantly too low if these patterns continue.
Based on assumptions set out in our book, the budgetary cost
to the UK of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan through 2010 will
total more than £18 billion. If we include the social costs, the
total impact on the UK will exceed £20 billion.
© Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes, 2008. Extracted from The
Three Trillion Dollar War, to be published by Allen Lane on
February 28 (£20). Copies can be ordered for £18 with free
delivery from The Times BooksFirst 0870 1608080.
Joseph Stiglitz was chief economist at the World Bank and
won the Nobel Memorial Prize for Economics in 2001. Linda
Bilmes is a lecturer in public policy at the Kennedy School of
Government at Harvard University
�
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  • 1. Why the US has really gone broke The economic disaster that is military keynesianism by Chalmers Johnson Le Monde Diplomatique February 2008 Global confidence in the US economy has reached zero, as was proved by last month’s stock market meltdown. But there is an enormous anomaly in the US economy above and beyond the subprime mortgage crisis, the housing bubble and the prospect of recession: 60 years of misallocation of resources, and borrowings, to the establishment and maintenance of a militaryindustrial complex as the basis of the nation’s economic life
  • 2. The military adventurers in the Bush administration have much in common with the corporate leaders of the defunct energy company Enron. Both groups thought that they were the “smartest guys in the room” — the title of Alex Gibney’s prizewinning film on what went wrong at Enron. The neoconservatives in the White House and the Pentagon outsmarted themselves. They failed even to address the problem of how to finance their schemes of imperialist wars and global domination. As a result, going into 2008, the United States finds itself in the anomalous position of being unable to pay for its own elevated living standards or its wasteful, overly large military establishment. Its government no longer even attempts to reduce the ruinous expenses of maintaining huge standing armies, replacing the equipment that seven years of wars have
  • 3. destroyed or worn out, or preparing for a war in outer space against unknown adversaries. Instead, the Bush administration puts off these costs for future generations to pay or repudiate. This fiscal irresponsibility has been disguised through many manipulative financial schemes (causing poorer countries to lend us unprecedented sums of money), but the time of reckoning is fast approaching. There are three broad aspects to the US debt crisis. First, in the current fiscal year (2008) we are spending insane amounts of money on “defence” projects that bear no relation to the national security of the US. We are also keeping the income tax burdens on the richest segment of the population at strikingly low levels. Second, we continue to believe that we can compensate for the accelerating erosion of our base and our loss of jobs to foreign countries through massive military expenditures — “military
  • 4. Keynesianism” (which I discuss in detail in my book Nemesis: The Last Days of the American Republic). By that, I mean the mistaken belief that public policies focused on frequent wars, huge expenditures on weapons and munitions, and large standing armies can indefinitely sustain a wealthy capitalist economy. The opposite is actually true. Third, in our devotion to militarism (despite our limited resources), we are failing to invest in our social infrastructure and other requirements for the long-term health of the US. These are what economists call opportunity costs, things not done because we spent our money on something else. Our public education system has deteriorated alarmingly. We have failed to provide health care to all our citizens and neglected our responsibilities as the world’s number one polluter. Most important, we have lost our competitiveness as a manufacturer for civilian needs, an infinitely more efficient use of scarce resources than arms manufacturing.
  • 5. Fiscal disaster It is virtually impossible to overstate the profligacy of what our government spends on the military. The Department of Defense’s planned expenditures for the fiscal year 2008 are larger than all other nations’ military budgets combined. The supplementary budget to pay for the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, not part of the official defence budget, is itself � larger than the combined military budgets of Russia and China. Defence-related spending for fiscal 2008 will exceed $1 trillion for the first time in history. The US has become the largest single seller of arms and munitions to other nations on Earth. Leaving out President Bush’s two on-going wars, defence spending has doubled since the mid-1990s. The defence budget for fiscal 2008 is the largest since the second world war.
  • 6. Before we try to break down and analyse this gargantuan sum, there is one important caveat. Figures on defence spending are notoriously unreliable. The numbers released by the Congressional Reference Service and the Congressional Budget Office do not agree with each other. Robert Higgs, senior fellow for political economy at the Independent Institute, says: “A well-founded rule of thumb is to take the Pentagon’s (always well publicised) basic budget total and double it” (1). Even a cursory reading of newspaper articles about the Department of Defense will turn up major differences in statistics about its expenses. Some 30-40% of the defence budget is “black”,” meaning that these sections contain hidden expenditures for classified projects. There is no possible way to know what they include or whether their total amounts are accurate.
  • 7. There are many reasons for this budgetary sleight-of-hand — including a desire for secrecy on the part of the president, the secretary of defence, and the military-industrial complex — but the chief one is that members of Congress, who profit enormously from defence jobs and pork-barrel projects in their districts, have a political interest in supporting the Department of Defense. In 1996, in an attempt to bring accounting standards within the executive branch closer to those of the civilian economy, Congress passed the Federal Financial Management Improvement Act. It required all federal agencies to hire outside auditors to review their books and release the results to the public. Neither the Department of Defense, nor the Department of Homeland Security, has ever complied. Congress has complained, but not penalised either department for ignoring the law. All numbers released by the Pentagon should be regarded as suspect.
  • 8. In discussing the fiscal 2008 defence budget, as released on 7 February 2007, I have been guided by two experienced and reliable analysts: William D Hartung of the New America Foundation’s Arms and Security Initiative (2) and Fred Kaplan, defence correspondent for Slate.org (3). They agree that the Department of Defense requested $481.4bn for salaries, operations (except in Iraq and Afghanistan), and equipment. They also agree on a figure of $141.7bn for the “supplemental” budget to fight the global war on terrorism — that is, the two ongoing wars that the general public may think are actually covered by the basic Pentagon budget. The Department of Defense also asked for an extra $93.4bn to pay for hitherto unmentioned war costs in the remainder of 2007 and, most creatively, an additional “allowance” (a new term in defence budget documents) of $50bn to be charged to fiscal year 2009. This makes a total spending request by the Department of Defense of $766.5bn.
  • 9. 2 But there is much more. In an attempt to disguise the true size of the US military empire, the government has long hidden major military-related expenditures in departments other than Defense. For example, $23.4bn for the Department of Energy goes towards developing and maintaining nuclear warheads; and $25.3bn in the Department of State budget is spent on foreign military assistance (primarily for Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Republic, Egypt and Pakistan). Another $1.03bn outside the official Department of Defense budget is now needed for recruitment and reenlistment incentives for the overstretched US military, up from a mere $174m in 2003, when the war in Iraq began. The Department of Veterans Affairs currently gets at least $75.7bn, 50% of it for the long-term care of the most seriously injured among the 28,870 soldiers so far wounded in Iraq and 1,708 in
  • 10. � Afghanistan. The amount is universally derided as inadequate. Another $46.4bn goes to the Department of Homeland Security. Missing from this compilation is $1.9bn to the Department of Justice for the paramilitary activities of the FBI; $38.5bn to the Department of the Treasury for the Military Retirement Fund; $7.6bn for the military-related activities of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration; and well over $200bn in interest for past debt-financed defence outlays. This brings US spending for its military establishment during the current fiscal year, conservatively calculated, to at least $1.1 trillion. Military Keynesianism Such expenditures are not only morally obscene, they are fiscally unsustainable. Many neo-conservatives and poorly informed patriotic Americans believe that, even though our
  • 11. defence budget is huge, we can afford it because we are the richest country on Earth. That statement is no longer true. The world’s richest political entity, according to the CIA’s World Factbook, is the European Union. The EU’s 2006 GDP was estimated to be slightly larger than that of the US. Moreover, China’s 2006 GDP was only slightly smaller than that of the US, and Japan was the world’s fourth richest nation. A more telling comparison that reveals just how much worse we’re doing can be found among the current accounts of various nations. The current account measures the net trade surplus or deficit of a country plus cross-border payments of interest, royalties, dividends, capital gains, foreign aid, and other income. In order for Japan to manufacture anything, it must import all required raw materials. Even after this incredible expense is met, it still has an $88bn per year trade surplus with the US and enjoys the world’s second highest current account balance
  • 12. (China is number one). The US is number 163 — last on the list, worse than countries such as Australia and the UK that also have large trade deficits. Its 2006 current account deficit was $811.5bn; second worst was Spain at $106.4bn. This is unsustainable. It’s not just that our tastes for foreign goods, including imported oil, vastly exceed our ability to pay for them. We are financing them through massive borrowing. On 7 November 2007, the US Treasury announced that the national debt had breached _$9 trillion for the first time. This was just five weeks after Congress raised the “debt ceiling” to $9.815 trillion. If you begin in 1789, at the moment the constitution became the supreme law of the land, the debt accumulated by the federal government did not top $1 trillion until 1981. When George Bush became president in January 2001, it stood at approximately $5.7 trillion. Since then, it has increased by 45%. This huge debt can be largely
  • 13. explained by our defence expenditures. The top spenders The world’s top 10 military spenders and the approximate amounts each currently budgets for its military establishment are: Rank Country Military budget 1. United States (FY 2008 budget)
  • 16. $35.1bn 8. Italy (2003) $28.2bn 9. South Korea (2003) $21.1bn 10. India (2005 est.)
  • 17. $19bn World total military expenditures (2004 est) $1,100bn World total (minus the US) $500bn � Our excessive military expenditures did not occur over just a few short years or simply because of the Bush administration’s policies. They have been going on for a very long time in accordance with a superficially plausible ideology, and have now become so entrenched in our democratic political system
  • 18. that they are starting to wreak havoc. This is military Keynesianism — the determination to maintain a permanent war economy and to treat military output as an ordinary economic product, even though it makes no contribution to either production or consumption. This ideology goes back to the first years of the cold war. During the late 1940s, the US was haunted by economic anxieties. The great depression of the 1930s had been overcome only by the war production boom of the second world war. With peace and demobilisation, there was a pervasive fear that the depression would return. During 1949, alarmed by the Soviet Union’s detonation of an atomic bomb, the looming Communist victory in the Chinese civil war, a domestic recession, and the lowering of the Iron Curtain around the USSR’s European satellites, the US sought to draft basic strategy for the emerging cold war. The result was the militaristic National Security Council Report 68
  • 19. (NSC-68) drafted under the supervision of Paul Nitze, then head of the Policy Planning Staff in the State Department. Dated 14 April 1950 and signed by President Harry S Truman on 30 September 1950, it laid out the basic public economic policies that the US pursues to the present day. In its conclusions, NSC-68 asserted: “One of the most significant lessons of our World War II experience was that the American economy, when it operates at a level approaching full efficiency, can provide enormous resources for purposes other than civilian consumption while simultaneously providing a high standard of living” (4). With this understanding, US strategists began to build up a massive munitions industry, both to counter the military might of the Soviet Union (which they consistently overstated) and also
  • 20. to maintain full employment, as well as ward off a possible return of the depression. The result was that, under Pentagon leadership, entire new industries were created to manufacture large aircraft, nuclear-powered submarines, nuclear warheads, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and surveillance and communications satellites. This led to what President Eisenhower warned against in his farewell address of 6 February 1961: “The conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience” — the military-industrial complex. By 1990 the value of the weapons, equipment and factories devoted to the Department of Defense was 83% of the value of all plants and equipment in US manufacturing. From 1947 to 1990, the combined US military budgets amounted to $8.7 trillion. Even though the Soviet Union no longer exists, US reliance on military Keynesianism has, if anything, ratcheted up,
  • 21. thanks to the massive vested interests that have become entrenched around the military establishment. Over time, a commitment to both guns and butter has proven an unstable configuration. Military industries crowd out the civilian economy and lead to severe economic weaknesses. Devotion to military Keynesianism is a form of slow economic suicide. Higher spending, fewer jobs On 1 May 2007, the Center for Economic and Policy Research of Washington, DC, released a study prepared by the economic and political forecasting company Global Insight on the longterm economic impact of increased military spending. Guided by economist Dean Baker, this research showed that, after an initial demand stimulus, by about the sixth year the effect of increased military spending turns negative. The US economy has had to cope with growing defence spending for more than
  • 22. 60 years. Baker found that, after 10 years of higher defence � spending, there would be 464,000 fewer jobs than in a scenario that involved lower defence spending. Baker concluded: “It is often believed that wars and military spending increases are good for the economy. In fact, most economic models show that military spending diverts resources from productive uses, such as consumption and investment, and ultimately slows economic growth and reduces employment” (5). These are only some of the many deleterious effects of military Keynesianism. It was believed that the US could afford both a massive military establishment and a high standard of living, and that it needed
  • 23. both to maintain full employment. But it did not work out that way. By the 1960s it was becoming apparent that turning over the nation’s largest manufacturing enterprises to the Department of Defense and producing goods without any investment or consumption value was starting to crowd out civilian economic activities. The historian Thomas E Woods Jr observes that, during the 1950s and 1960s, between one-third and two-thirds of all US research talent was siphoned off into the military sector (6). It is, of course, impossible to know what innovations never appeared as a result of this diversion of resources and brainpower into the service of the military, but it was during the 1960s that we first began to notice Japan was outpacing us in the design and quality of a range of consumer goods, including household electronics and automobiles. Can we reverse the trend? Nuclear weapons furnish a striking illustration of these
  • 24. anomalies. Between the 1940s and 1996, the US spent at least $5.8 trillion on the development, testing and construction of nuclear bombs. By 1967, the peak year of its nuclear stockpile, the US possessed some 32,500 deliverable atomic and hydrogen bombs, none of which, thankfully, was ever used. They perfectly illustrate the Keynesian principle that the government can provide make-work jobs to keep people employed. Nuclear weapons were not just America’s secret weapon, but also its secret economic weapon. As of 2006, we still had 9,960 of them. There is today no sane use for them, while the trillions spent on them could have been used to solve the problems of social security and health care, quality education and access to higher education for all, not to speak of the retention of highly-skilled jobs within the economy. The pioneer in analysing what has been lost as a result of military Keynesianism was the late Seymour Melman (1917- 2004), a professor of industrial engineering and operations
  • 25. research at Columbia University. His 1970 book, Pentagon Capitalism: The Political Economy of War, was a prescient analysis of the unintended consequences of the US preoccupation with its armed forces and their weaponry since the onset of the cold war. Melman wrote: “From 1946 to 1969, the United States government spent over $1,000bn on the military, more than half of this under the Kennedy and Johnson administrations — the period during which the [Pentagondominated] state management was established as a formal institution. This sum of staggering size (try to visualize a billion of something) does not express the cost of the military establishment to the nation as a whole. The true cost is measured by what has been foregone, by the accumulated deterioration in many facets of life, by the inability to alleviate human wretchedness of long duration.” 5
  • 26. In an important exegesis on Melman’s relevance to the current American economic situation, Thomas Woods writes: “According to the US Department of Defense, during the four decades from 1947 through 1987 it used (in 1982 dollars) $7.62 trillion in capital resources. In 1985, the Department of Commerce estimated the value of the nation’s plant and � equipment, and infrastructure, at just over _$7.29 trillion… The amount spent over that period could have doubled the American capital stock or modernized and replaced its existing stock” (7). The fact that we did not modernise or replace our capital assets is one of the main reasons why, by the turn of the 21st century, our manufacturing base had all but evaporated. Machine tools, an industry on which Melman was an authority, are a particularly important symptom. In November 1968, a five-year inventory disclosed “that 64% of the metalworking machine tools used in
  • 27. US industry were 10 years old or older. The age of this industrial equipment (drills, lathes, etc.) marks the United States’ machine tool stock as the oldest among all major industrial nations, and it marks the continuation of a deterioration process that began with the end of the second world war. This deterioration at the base of the industrial system certifies to the continuous debilitating and depleting effect that the military use of capital and research and development talent has had on American industry.” Nothing has been done since 1968 to reverse these trends and it shows today in our massive imports of equipment — from medical machines like _proton accelerators for radiological therapy (made primarily in Belgium, Germany, and Japan) to cars and trucks.
  • 28. Our short tenure as the world’s lone superpower has come to an end. As Harvard economics professor Benjamin Friedman has written: “Again and again it has always been the world’s leading lending country that has been the premier country in terms of political influence, diplomatic influence and cultural influence. It’s no accident that we took over the role from the British at the same time that we took over the job of being the world’s leading lending country. Today we are no longer the world’s leading lending country. In fact we are now the world’s biggest debtor country, and we are continuing to wield influence on the basis of military prowess alone” (8). Some of the damage can never be rectified. There are, however, some steps that the US urgently needs to take. These include reversing Bush’s 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for the wealthy, beginning to liquidate our global empire of over 800
  • 29. military bases, cutting from the defence budget all projects that bear no relationship to national security and ceasing to use the defence budget as a Keynesian jobs programme. If we do these things we have a chance of squeaking by. If we don’t, we face probable national insolvency and a long depression. The three trillion dollar war The cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts have grown to staggering proportions By Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes The Bush Administration was wrong about the benefits of the war and it was wrong about the costs of the war. The president and his advisers expected a quick, inexpensive conflict.
  • 30. Instead, we have a war that is costing more than anyone could have imagined. The cost of direct US military operations - not even including long-term costs such as taking care of wounded veterans - already exceeds the cost of the 12-year war in Vietnam and is more than double the cost of the Korean War. And, even in the best case scenario, these costs are projected to be almost ten times the cost of the first Gulf War, almost a third more than the cost of the Vietnam War, and twice that of the First World War. The only war in our history which cost more was the Second World War, when 16.3 million U.S. troops fought in a campaign lasting four years, at a total cost (in 2007 dollars, after adjusting for inflation) of about $5 trillion (that's $5 million million, or £2.5 million million). With virtually the entire armed forces committed to fighting the Germans and
  • 31. Japanese, the cost per troop (in today's dollars) was less than $100,000 in 2007 dollars. By contrast, the Iraq war is costing upward of $400,000 per troop. Most Americans have yet to feel these costs. The price in blood has been paid by our voluntary military and by hired contractors. The price in treasure has, in a sense, been financed entirely by borrowing. Taxes have not been raised to pay for it - in fact, taxes on the rich have actually fallen. Deficit spending gives the illusion that the laws of economics can be repealed, that we can have both guns and butter. But of course the laws are not repealed. The costs of the war are real even if they have been deferred, possibly to another generation. On the eve of war, there were discussions of the likely costs. Larry Lindsey, President Bush's economic adviser and head of the National Economic Council, suggested that they might
  • 32. reach $200 billion. But this estimate was dismissed as “baloney” by the Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld. His deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, suggested that postwar reconstruction could pay for itself through increased oil revenues. Mitch Daniels, the Office of Management and Budget director, and Secretary Rumsfeld estimated the costs in the range of $50 to $60 billion, a portion of which they believed would be financed by other countries. (Adjusting for inflation, in 2007 dollars, they were projecting costs of between $57 and $69 billion.) The tone of the entire administration was cavalier, as if the sums involved were minimal. Even Lindsey, after noting that the war could cost $200 billion, went on to say: “The successful prosecution of the war would be good for the economy.” In retrospect, Lindsey grossly underestimated both the costs of the war itself and the costs to the economy. Assuming that Congress approves the rest of
  • 33. the $200 billion war supplemental requested for fiscal year 2008, as this book goes to press Congress will have appropriated a total of over $845 billion for military operations, reconstruction, embassy costs, enhanced security at US bases, and foreign aid programmes in Iraq and Afghanistan. � As the fifth year of the war draws to a close, operating costs (spending on the war itself, what you might call “running expenses”) for 2008 are projected to exceed $12.5 billion a month for Iraq alone, up from $4.4 billion in 2003, and with Afghanistan the total is $16 billion a month. Sixteen billion dollars is equal to the annual budget of the United Nations, or of all but 13 of the US states. Even so, it does not include the $500 billion we already spend per year on the regular expenses of the Defence Department. Nor does it include other hidden expenditures, such as intelligence gathering, or funds mixed in with the budgets of other departments.
  • 34. Because there are so many costs that the Administration does not count, the total cost of the war is higher than the official number. For example, government officials frequently talk about the lives of our soldiers as priceless. But from a cost perspective, these “priceless” lives show up on the Pentagon ledger simply as $500,000 - the amount paid out to survivors in death benefits and life insurance. After the war began, these were increased from $12,240 to $100,000 (death benefit) and from $250,000 to $400,000 (life insurance). Even these increased amounts are a fraction of what the survivors might have received had these individuals lost their lives in a senseless automobile accident. In areas such as health and safety regulation, the US Government values a life of a young man at the peak of his future earnings capacity in excess of $7 million - far greater than the amount that the military pays in death benefits. Using this figure, the cost of the nearly 4,000
  • 35. American troops killed in Iraq adds up to some $28 billion. The costs to society are obviously far larger than the numbers that show up on the government's budget. Another example of hidden costs is the understating of US military casualties. The Defence Department's casualty statistics focus on casualties that result from hostile (combat) action - as determined by the military. Yet if a soldier is injured or dies in a night-time vehicle accident, this is officially dubbed “non combat related” - even though it may be too unsafe for soldiers to travel during daytime. In fact, the Pentagon keeps two sets of books. The first is the official casualty list posted on the DOD website. The second, hard-to-find, set of data is available only on a different website and can be obtained under the Freedom of Information Act. This data shows that the total number of soldiers who have
  • 36. been wounded, injured, or suffered from disease is double the number wounded in combat. Some will argue that a percentage of these non-combat injuries might have happened even if the soldiers were not in Iraq. Our new research shows that the majority of these injuries and illnesses can be tied directly to service in the war. From the unhealthy brew of emergency funding, multiple sets of books, and chronic underestimates of the resources required to prosecute the war, we have attempted to identify how much we have been spending - and how much we will, in the end, likely have to spend. The figure we arrive at is more than $3 trillion. Our calculations are based on conservative assumptions. They are conceptually simple, even if occasionally technically complicated. A $3 trillion figure for the total cost strikes us as judicious, and probably errs on the low side. Needless to say, this number represents the cost only to
  • 37. the United States. It does not reflect the enormous cost to the rest of the world, or to Iraq. From the beginning, the United Kingdom has played a pivotal role - strategic, military, and political - in the Iraq conflict. Militarily, the UK contributed 46,000 troops, 10 per cent of the total. Unsurprisingly, then, the British experience in Iraq has paralleled that of America: rising casualties, increasing operating costs, poor transparency over where the money is going, overstretched military resources, and scandals over the � squalid conditions and inadequate medical care for some severely wounded veterans. Before the war, Gordon Brown set aside £1 billion for war
  • 38. spending. As of late 2007, the UK had spent an estimated £7 billion in direct operating expenditures in Iraq and Afghanistan (76 per cent of it in Iraq). This includes money from a supplemental “special reserve”, plus additional spending from the Ministry of Defence. The special reserve comes on top of the UK's regular defence budget. The British system is particularly opaque: funds from the special reserve are “drawn down” by the Ministry of Defence when required, without specific approval by Parliament. As a result, British citizens have little clarity about how much is actually being spent. In addition, the social costs in the UK are similar to those in the US - families who leave jobs to care for wounded soldiers, and diminished quality of life for those thousands left with disabilities.
  • 39. By the same token, there are macroeconomic costs to the UK as there have been to America, though the long-term costs may be less, for two reasons. First, Britain did not have the same policy of fiscal profligacy; and second, until 2005, the United Kingdom was a net oil exporter. We have assumed that British forces in Iraq are reduced to 2,500 this year and remain at that level until 2010. We expect that British forces in Afghanistan will increase slightly, from 7,000 to 8,000 in 2008, and remain stable for three years. The House of Commons Defence Committee has recently found that despite the cut in troop levels, Iraq war costs will increase by 2 per cent this year and personnel costs will decrease by only 5 per cent. Meanwhile, the cost of military operations in Afghanistan is due to rise by 39 per cent. The estimates in our model may be significantly too low if these patterns continue.
  • 40. Based on assumptions set out in our book, the budgetary cost to the UK of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan through 2010 will total more than £18 billion. If we include the social costs, the total impact on the UK will exceed £20 billion. © Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes, 2008. Extracted from The Three Trillion Dollar War, to be published by Allen Lane on February 28 (£20). Copies can be ordered for £18 with free delivery from The Times BooksFirst 0870 1608080. Joseph Stiglitz was chief economist at the World Bank and won the Nobel Memorial Prize for Economics in 2001. Linda Bilmes is a lecturer in public policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University �