Niel talks about why we should prioritise and how we should do it. Dr. Niel Bowerman is Director of Operations at the Future of Humanity Institute. Niel co-founded the Centre for Effective Altruism, the Global Priorities Project, climate policy think tank Climatio, and was part of the 80,000 Hours founding team. Niel has a PhD in physics from Oxford University, he was a member of President Obama’s Energy and Environment Policy Team, and was Climate Science Advisor to the President of the Maldives. Niel has delivered speeches at G8 Summits, the European Parliament, World Bank, UK Treasury and at the World Economic Forum. Video of talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXhMuO6e6qE&list=PL-7qI6NZpO3vIfu0uHiK8SjCPm2bz4maW&index=11 Many thanks for watching! - Support me via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/scifuture - Please Subscribe to this Channel: http://youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=TheRationalFuture - Science, Technology & the Future website: http://scifuture.org

1. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Why and how to
prioritise
Niel Bowerman
Future of Humanity Institute
Co-founder, Centre for Effective Altruism
2 October, 2015

2. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
What is effective altruism?
1. Figure out how to do the most good
2. Do it!

3. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Why should we prioritise?

4. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)
Antiretroviral therapy
Treatment of Kaposi’s
Sarcoma

5. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Antiretroviral therapy
Treatment of Kaposi’s
Sarcoma

6. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Antiretroviral therapy
Prevention of transmission
during pregnancy
Treatment of Kaposi’s
Sarcoma

7. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Cost-effectiveness (QALYs/£1,000)
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)
Treatment of Kaposi’s
Sarcoma
Antiretroviral therapy
Prevention of transmission
during pregnancy

8. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Treatment of Kaposi’s
Sarcoma
Antiretroviral therapy
Distribution of condoms
Prevention of transmission
during pregnancy
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)

9. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Treatment of Kaposi’s
Sarcoma
Antiretroviral therapy
Distribution of condoms
Prevention of transmission
during pregnancy
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)

10. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Treatment of Kaposi’s
Sarcoma
Antiretroviral therapy
Distribution of condoms
Prevention of transmission
during pregnancy
Education for
high-risk groups
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)

11. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Global health interventions
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/$1,000)

12. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Boosting school attendance

13. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
0
0
0.17
0.18
0.44
0 0.2 0.4 0.6
Menstrual cups for teengage girls
(Nepal)
Remedial tutoring by volunteers (India)
Merit scholarships for girls (Kenya)
Sponsoring a child (Kenya)
Free school uniforms (Kenya)
Additional years in school per £100

14. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
0
0
0.17
0.18
0.44
8.7
13
0 5 10 15
Menstrual cups for teengage girls
(Nepal)
Remedial tutoring by volunteers (India)
Merit scholarships for girls (Kenya)
Sponsoring a child (Kenya)
Free school uniforms (Kenya)
Deworming in primary schools (Kenya)
Information on returns to education for
parents (Madagascar)
Additional years in school per £100

15. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
0
0
0.17
0.18
0.44
8.7
13
0 5 10 15
Menstrual cups for teengage girls
(Nepal)
Remedial tutoring by volunteers (India)
Merit scholarships for girls (Kenya)
Sponsoring a child (Kenya)
Free school uniforms (Kenya)
Deworming in primary schools (Kenya)
Information on returns to education for
parents (Madagascar)
Additional years in school per £100

16. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Climate change

17. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Tonnes of CO2eq/£100
Sources: Carbon Point; JP Morgan Climate Care; 10:10; Effective Animal Activism
20
16
7
5
1
0.6
0 5 10 15 20 25
10:10 Campaign
Encourage vegetarianism
Buy permits on the carbon market
Carbon offsetting
Heat exchangers in dialysis
machines
Train not plane to Naples

18. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
20
16
7
5
1
0.6
0 200 400 600 800
Offset HFCs
10:10 Campaign
Encourage vegetarianism
Buy permits on the carbon market
Carbon offsetting
Heat exchangers in dialysis
machines
Train not plane to Naples
Sources: Carbon Point; JP Morgan Climate Care; 10:10; Effective Animal Activism
800
Tonnes of CO2eq/£100

19. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
20
16
7
5
1
0.6
0 200 400 600 800
Offset HFCs
10:10 Campaign
Encourage vegetarianism
Buy permits on the carbon market
Carbon offsetting
Heat exchangers in dialysis
machines
Train not plane to Naples
Sources: Carbon Point; JP Morgan Climate Care; 10:10; Effective Animal Activism
800
Tonnes of CO2eq/£100

20. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
How to prioritise

21. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Choosing an
organisation
working on a
specific
intervention
Choosing an
intervention
from within a
cause area
Choosing a
cause area

22. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Factoring cost-effectiveness

23. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Comparing effectiveness

24. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Choosing an
organisation
working on a
specific
intervention
• Track record
• Transparency
• Quality of team
Choosing an
intervention
from within a
cause area
• Randomised
control trials
• Cost-effectiveness
estimates
Choosing a
cause area
• Scale
• Neglectedness
• Tractability
• Crucial
considerations

25. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Take-home points
1. Some things we can work on are far more effective than
others
2. Prioritisation is challenging
• However there is a growing body of experts
working on this problem
3. Take prioritisation seriously
• Change your mind
• Change your actions

26. Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!