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Presentation Study on UNECA ICSOE 2021 Investing in Eastern Africa.pdf
1.
2. October 2021
Title of presentation
Name of presenter
Title, Division
Economic Commission for Africa
INVESTING IN EASTERN AFRICA:
opportunities and challenges
Prof. Issouf Soumaré
Laval University, Quebec, Canada
3. PREAMBLE
• Investment is one of the main drivers of economic growth and
development
• Attracting quality investments is key to boost economic growth and
development in East African countries through industrialization and
economic diversification
• This background study focuses on investment opportunities and challenges
in Eastern Africa
• In the context of AfCFTA investment protocol discussion, this would help to
arm regional policymakers with tools for informed decision-making
4. OUTLINE
QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA
ECONOMIES
01
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND
CHALLENGES IN EAST AFRICA
02
RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN
05
REVIEW OF INVESTMENT
APPROACHES
03
REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND
INVESTMENT
04
5. OUTLINE
QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA
ECONOMIES
01
INVESTMENTS OPPORTUNITIES AND
CHALLENGES IN EAST AFRICA
02
RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN
05
REVIEW OF INVESTMENT
APPROACHES
03
REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND
INVESTMENT
04
6. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
East Africa, the fastest economic growing region on the continent
Table 1: Real GDP growth (2000 to 2022)
Average
2000-2009
Average
2010-2015
Average
2015-2017
2018 2019
2020 -
estimates
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Burundi 3.4 4.6 2.2 4.2 4.1 -3.3 3.0 3.2
RDC 3.2 7.8 4.3 5.8 4.4 -2.2 3.5 4.0
Comoros 2.6 3.5 2.7 3.8 2.0 0.2 2.9 3.0
Djibouti 3.2 5.7 6.6 8.4 6.6 1.2 4.5 5.0
Eritrea -0.6 11.8 3.1 4.2 3.8 -2.5 4.1 3.0
Ethiopia 8.6 10.2 9.5 7.7 9.0 6.1 2.3 4.2
Kenya 3.4 6.1 5.5 6.3 5.4 -0.4 3.0 4.0
Madagascar 3.2 2.2 3.7 3.2 4.4 -2.6 3.0 2.8
Rwanda 8.3 7.0 6.3 8.6 9.5 -3.4 4.5 6.0
Somalia NA 1.8 3.3 3.1 2.9 -3.7 2.7 3.1
South Sudan NA -6.7 1.0 3.4 11.3 -7.2 2.0 2.2
Seychelles 2.0 5.1 4.6 1.3 1.9 -13.4 1.8 4.3
Tanzania 6.4 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.0 1.5 3.0 4.0
Uganda 7.5 5.4 4.6 6.2 6.8 2.9 4.1 4.8
Eastern
Africa
6.3 5.8 5.8 6.7 6.5 -0.7 3.0 4.1
Africa 5.8 5.5 2.6 3.4 2.9 -3.4 3.4 3.6
World 5.2 4.2 2.8 3.1 2.5 -4.3 4.7 3.4
7. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
East African economies, largely driven by internal demand
Table 2: GDP structure (average 2015-2019)
Exports to
GDP (%)
Final Consumption
expenditures to GDP
(%)
Gross Capital
Formation to
GDP (%)
Imports to
GDP (%)
Burundi 7.4 106.9 16.6 -29.5
Comoros 11.8 102.5 14.1 -28.3
Djibouti 138.3 82.2 36.5 -157.0
Eritrea 29.7 89.8 6.6 -26.1
Ethiopia 8.2 77.4 37.0 -24.9
Kenya 13.9 94.1 18.8 -23.9
Madagascar 29.7 86.8 18.3 -33.9
Rwanda 18.4 90.9 24.7 -34.0
Seychelles 86.5 78.7 35.5 -96.8
Somalia 0.3 81.4 20.0 -1.7
South Sudan 59.7 159.5 15.8 -135.1
Tanzania 15.9 69.2 35.4 -18.9
Uganda 18.2 84.8 24.7 -27.8
DRC 30.3 83.6 20.8 -34.7
Total Eastern Africa 18.1 84.2 27.0 -28.9
Africa 23.1 81.9 23.7 -28.7
Europe 44.5 74.9 21.4 -40.8
8. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
Exports driven by agriculture products and natural resources
Figure 1: Total export structure by product group (average 2015-2019)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Agriculture Manufactured goods Fuel & Mining Other
9. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
Among least diversified economies on the continent (horizontal)
Figure 2: Number of products constituting 75% or more of total exports and contribution of most traded export in
total exports (2014)
10. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
Among least industrialized regions on the continent and pace of industrialization is
slowing
Figure 3: Trend of share of manufactured products to total export from 2000 to 2019
48.9
11.3
7.1
19.6
6.9
4.8
4.2
9.6
10.7
22.9
56.9
17.7
8.3
35.7
25.7
19.6
3.6
8.7
12.6
0.0
38.2
18.1
19.4
35.2
31.5
17.8
5.3
9.2
10.6
0.0
28.5
37.3
31.6
30.0
21.6
12.2
13.9
10.4
12.7
0.0
92.5
79.6
73.8
63.5
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Madagascar Tanzania Comoros Kenya Uganda Burundi Seychelles Ethiopia Rwanda Eritrea
Average 2000-2004 Average 2005-2009 Average 2010-2014
Average 2015-2019 China average 2000-2019 EU average 2000-2020
Thailand average 2000-2019 Vietnam average 2000-2019
11. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
Among least industrialized regions on the continent and pace of industrialization is
slowing
Figure 4: Trend of medium and high-tech in manufacturing value-added (% total MVA) from 2009 to 2017
8.5
10.8
11.1
14.6
10.0
6.7
3.0
2.7
8.0
9.5
11.1
5.2
10.0
6.7
3.4
3.2
13.1
12.1
11.1
9.8
7.4
6.7
3.6
2.6
16.1
15.0
11.1
6.5
4.6
6.7
3.6
2.6
42.0
42.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ethiopia Kenya Uganda Tanzania Eritrea Rwanda Madagascar Burundi
Average 2000-2004 Average 2005-2009 Average 2010-2014
Average 2015-2017 China average 2000-2017 Thailand average 2000-2017
Vietnam average 2000-2017
12. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
Shift to service is slowly happening in Eastern African economies
Table 3: Service, value added (% of GDP) from 1995 to 2019
Annual average 1995-
1999 (%)
Annual average 2000-
2009 (%)
Annual average 2010-
2019 (%)
Burundi 31.7 35.6 43.2
DRC 29.7 40.8 33.5
Comoros 54.5 54.5 53.8
Ethiopia 32.5 39.4 38.8
Kenya n.a. 50.0 45.9
Madagascar 46.5 51.5 54.1
Rwanda 37.6 45.3 49.1
South Sudan n.a. 36.1 46.8
Seychelles 60.5 59.5 69.0
Tanzania 40.4 46.1 40.6
Uganda 35.9 45.8 42.2
Eastern Africa 41.0 45.9 47.0
Africa 35.5 39.3 43.8
European Union 61.0 63.3 65.4
United States 72.3 74.3 76.5
13. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
Shift to service is slowly happening in Eastern African economies
Table 4: Service export to total export of goods and services (%) from 2000 to 2019
Average 2000-2004 Average 2005-2009 Average 2010-2014 Average 2015-2019 (%)
Burundi 15.5 42.5 45.7 29.5
DRC n.a. 11.2 3.9 1.1
Comoros 63.4 76.6 62.6 71.7
Kenya 35.2 39.5 45.4 45.3
Madagascar 45.8 41.4 45.8 35.4
Rwanda n.a. n.a. 57.6 52.5
Seychelles 56.4 48.7 59.4 78.5
Tanzania 44.3 40.0 33.8 44.5
Uganda 33.8 31.0 44.8 41.6
Eastern Africa* 42.1 41.4 44.4 44.5
Africa 18.5 15.6 13.9 19.5
European Union 22.9 23.7 24.6 27.8
United States 28.3 30.0 31.4 34.6
14. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
For most countries in the region, investment rate is below the 25% threshold
identified by UN Growth Commission to have sustainable impact on economic
transformation and development
Figure 5: Annual average of GFCF-to-GDP (%) from 2015 to 2019
5.8
10.8
13.5
15.3
18.3
19.2
21.0 21.0
24.1 24.2 24.7
28.0
33.4
23.3
24.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Annual average 2015-2019 Thailand Annual average 2015-2019 Vietnam
15. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
East Africa faces important challenges to attract sufficient and quality FDI inflows
Figure 5: Evolution of FDI inflows into East Africa (amount and share) from 2000 to 2019
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
%
FDI
value
in
USD
million
Total Eastern Africa Region FDI share in total World (right axis)
0
5
10
15
20
25
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
%
FDI
value
in
USD
million
Total Eastern Africa Region FDI share in total Africa (right axis)
16. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
East Africa faces important challenges to attract sufficient and quality FDI inflows
Figure 6: FDI inflows into Eastern Africa per capita and FDI-to-GDP (%) from 2000-2019
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
US$
Eastern Africa FDI per capita ($) World FDI per capita ($)
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
%
Eastern Africa FDI to GDP (%) World FDI to GDP (%)
17. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
Ethiopia, DRC, Tanzania and Kenya are the most performing countries in the region
in terms of attracting FDI
Figure 6: Countries FDI inflows shares (%) in total of Eastern Africa from 2000 to 2019
0.0
0.2
-
1.6
3.4
0.8
0.6
-0.1
3.8
14.0
4.1
32.0
15.8
23.7
0.1
0.0
-
0.8
4.0
3.1
1.6
2.4
16.7
18.6
4.2
24.3
15.0
9.2
0.2
0.3
-1.6
1.0
3.2
1.8
2.7
2.0
14.8
13.7
10.8
22.5
21.1
7.6
0.0
0.1
-0.4
0.6
1.7
1.8
3.2
4.1
5.3
9.9
11.9
11.9
13.0
36.8
-5.0
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Annual average 2000-2004 Annual average 2005-2009 Annual average 2010-2014 Annual average 2015-2019
18. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
Investment in the region largely driven by domestic investment
Figure 7: FDI inflow as percentage of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%)
-2.3
3.4
5.7 6.1
9.1 9.5
11.9
14.5 15.6 17.1
19.8
27.6 27.9
52.2
56.0
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Annual average 2000-2019 (%) Annual average 2000-2019 (%) - World
19. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
Ethiopia mostly captures manufacturing oriented FDI whereas Uganda and Tanzania
capture resources-seeking FDI
Figure 8: Main sectors of FDI inflows in selected countries by FDI stocks, % of total value
76%
8%
8%
6%
1%
1%
64%
9%
8%
4%
4%
12%
49%
16%
9%
7%
5%
14%
24%
24%
15%
12%
6%
4%
15%
19%
14%
12%
10%
2%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Real
estate,
Machinery
Construction
Hotels
&
reastaurants
Other
Mining&Quarring
Finance&Insurance
Manufacturing
Electricity
&
Gas
Wholesale&Retail
Others
Mining&Quarring
Manufacturing
Electricity
&
Gas
Finance&Insurance
Accommodation
Others
ICT
Finance&Insurance
Manufacturing
Electricity
&
Gas
Wholesale&Retail
Agriculture
Others
Wholesale&Retail
Manufacturing
Finance&Insurance
Electricity
&
Gas
Transportation&Storage
Others
Ethiopia (2013) Uganda (2012) Tanzania (2012) Rwanda (2018) Kenya (2011)
20. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
Intra-African FDI is still representing small share of total FDI inflows
Figure 9: Top countries of FDI investors in selected countries by FDI stocks, % of total value
33%
18%
9%
9%
3%
28%
44%
24%
9%
5%
5%
13%
25%
18%
15%
10%
5%
26%
24%
7.5%
6.6%
5.7%
5.7%
50%
23%
22%
8%
7%
6%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Turkey
China
Saudi
Arabia
India
France
Others
Netherlands
Australia
UK
Kenya
Mauritus
Others
South
Africa
UK
Barbados
Canada
Kenya
Others
Mauritius
Kenya
Netherlands
South
Africa
US
Others
Mauritius
UK
US
Japan
Netherlands
Others
Ethiopia (2014) Uganda (2012) Tanzania (2012) Rwanda (2018) Kenya (2011)
21. 01 QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA ECONOMIES
Empirical evidence through panel regression highlighted the following as FDI’s main
determinants in Eastern Africa:
– Level of the country income
– Degree of openness to trade
– Quality of infrastructure development
This calls to increase countries’ openness to trade and quality of infrastructure
development in order to attract sizable FDI
22. OUTLINE
QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA
ECONOMIES
01
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND
CHALLENGES IN EAST AFRICA
02
RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN
05
REVIEW OF INVESTMENT
APPROACHES
03
REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND
INVESTMENT
04
23. • Opportunities
– Large internal market made of 437 millions potential consumers
– Fastest economic growth region on the continent with relatively high
resilience
– Region offers soil and climate ideal for agribusiness development
– Some of the countries in the region are rich in natural resources
– Region has natural assets for substantial investment in tourism
– Region offers huge investment opportunities in manufacturing,
infrastructures and services
– Investment codes offers interesting investment conditions
02 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN EAST AFRICA
24. • Challenges: Poor business environment
02 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN EAST AFRICA
38
56
100
112 116
141 140
159 160 161
166
183 185 189 190
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Figure 10: 2020 Doing Business ranking of Eastern Africa countries
25. • Challenges: Poor access to finance/credit in the region
02 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN EAST AFRICA
Figure 11: 2020 ranking of Doing Business’s Getting Credit factor of Eastern Africa countries
4 4
67
80
125
132 132 132
144
152
176 176
181
186 186
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
26. • Challenges: Weak and limited infrastructure development in the region
02 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN EAST AFRICA
Figure 12: 2020 ranking of Doing Business’s Getting Electricity factor of Eastern Africa countries
59
70
85
104
121
136 137
142
168
177
184 186 187 187 187
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
27. • Challenges: Weak and limited infrastructure development in the region
02 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN EAST AFRICA
Figure 13: 2018 ranking of and score of Infrastructure factor from LPI in selected countries of the region
60
65
79
113
124
128
132
146
152
157
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Djibouti Rwanda Kenya Comoros Uganda Madagascar DRC Burundi Eritrea Somalia
Infrastructure ranking Infrastructure Score Germany score
28. • Challenges: Weak economic openness in the region
02 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN EAST AFRICA
Figure 14: 2020 ranking of Trading across Borders factor of Eastern Africa countries
88
98
117 120 121
140
147 147
156
166 169
180 182
187 188
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
29. • Challenges: Most of the countries in the region suffer from corruption
02 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN EAST AFRICA
Figure 15: 2020 World Bank Corruption Perception Index – CPI, score
27
49
94
94
124
139
142
142
149
160
160
165
170
179
179
88
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
CPI
Score
Ranking
Ranking Score New Zealang Score
30. OUTLINE
QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA
ECONOMIES
01
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND
CHALLENGES IN EAST AFRICA
02
RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN
05
REVIEW OF INVESTMENT
APPROACHES
03
REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND
INVESTMENT
04
31. 03 REVIEW OF INVESTMENT APPROACHES
• Traditional investment approaches –Theoretical framework of FDI
• Market-seeking and
efficiency-seeking FDI
seem to have more
sustainable impact on
economic development
• Unfortunately, the
region seems to attract
few of these types of
FDI
32. 03 REVIEW OF INVESTMENT APPROACHES
• Traditional investment approaches – FDI
• Main FDI determinants from literature review:
– Business environment (tax policy, trade facility, rules regarding entry and operations,
corruption, banking)
– Political stability
– Infrastructure Development
• In 2020, worldwide FDI flows decreased to US$999 billion from US$1.6
trillion in 2019, representing 34.7% decrease due to Covid-19
• The region shows resilience in terms of FDI attraction in 2020. Indeed, the
region captured US$8 billion FDI inflows (0.5% of the global FDI and 20% of
Africa total FDI); this represents only 9.5% decrease compared to 34.7%
globally
33. 03 REVIEW OF INVESTMENT APPROACHES
• Traditional investment approaches – Equity funds, alternative to banking
and market financing is increasing on the continent
Figure 16: Trend of Private Equity deals in Africa (2015-2020)
34. 03 REVIEW OF INVESTMENT APPROACHES
• Traditional investment approaches – Equity funds : The region captures only
16% of private equity transactions on the continent compared to 23% for West Africa
26%
23%
17%
16%
2%
18%
15%
21%
17%
10%
3%
9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
South Africa region West Africa North Africa East Africa Central Africa South Africa
(Country)
%Share of number of deals %Share of deal values
Figure 17: Share of African sub-regions in total Private Equity deals in Africa (2015-2020)
35. 03 REVIEW OF INVESTMENT APPROACHES
• Traditional investment approaches – Equity funds : Bulk part of private
equity transaction in the region is captured by Kenya
Figure 18: East Africa Private Equity Investment shared by country (2015-2020)
61%
16%
16%
10%
8%
4%
<1%
<1%
58%
11%
11%
12%
10%
1%
8%
<1%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
Kenya Uganda Uganda Tanzania Ethiopia Rwanda Djibouti Burundi
%Share of deal values %Share of number of deals
36. 03 REVIEW OF INVESTMENT APPROACHES
• Traditional investment approaches – Assets on the institutional investors
balance sheet represent huge investment financing capacity
Table 4: African Institutional Investors Assets (US$ billion)
Type of investors 2017 2020f
Pension funds 676 1,100
Insurance companies 329 445
Sovereign wealth funds 243 300
Total 1,248 1,845
• Institutional investors target infrastructure and low risk investments
37. 03 REVIEW OF INVESTMENT APPROACHES
• Traditional investment approaches – A Joint Venture is another investment
approach that could be leveraged to attract quality investment in East
Africa.
• This investment strategy can be used locally or internationally. International
JV are major vehicles for FDI.
• Eastern Africa countries should design policies to promote strong domestic
entrepreneurs, national champions in their respective sectors by training
them to improve their management, governance, and negotiation
capabilities.
• This will help the region to have in place domestic strong partners who can
enter into JV relationships with foreign partners who want to invest in the
region.
38. 03 REVIEW OF INVESTMENT APPROACHES
• Innovative investment – ESG investment
• Three main types:
– Sustainable or Green Investments: investments that seek to combat or to factor in their objective fight against
climate change and environmental destruction
– Socially Responsible Investments (SRI): This category of investments considers the impact on social within the
investment objective
– Impact Investments: Investments that aim to generate, on top of the financial return, specific and positive social or
environmental impact.
• These types of investments are on increasing trend. In 2016, these
amounted to US$22.89 trillion worldwide
• In 2013, only 4% of the global ESG investment were invested in sub-Saharan
Africa
39. 03 REVIEW OF INVESTMENT APPROACHES
• Innovative investment – Blended finance
• Defined as investment strategy that uses development finance and philanthropic funds
to mobilize private capital flows into emerging markets in order to generate positive
outcomes for investors and affected communities
• This is on increasing trend
Figure 18: Cumulative blended finance
targeting least developed countries
40. OUTLINE
QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA
ECONOMIES
01
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND
CHALLENGES IN EAST AFRICA
02
RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN
05
REVIEW OF INVESTMENT
APPROACHES
03
REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND
INVESTMENT
04
41. 04 REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND INVESTMENT
• In the context of AfCFTA investment protocol discussion, it is key to
understand the link between integration and investment
• Conceptually, regional integration might end-up with increase in
investment
• According to UNCTAD (2012), to have impact on investment, regional
integration agreement should include:
– Provision relating to the liberalization or protection of investment covered by the
agreement
– Provision on trade and market integration
– Harmonization relating to the implementation of the integration agreement
– Provision on common pan-regional larger investment projects
– Investment codes and protocol should include Intellectual Property Rights - IPRs
42. 04 REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND INVESTMENT
• Case of SADC and COMESA
Figure 19: Evolution of the FDI-to-GDP (%) for SADC and COMESA (1980-2019)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
SADC - FDI to GDP (%) COMESA - FDI to GDP (%)
SADC establishment
COMESA establishment
SADC Finance &
Investment Protocol
signature
SADC Finance & Investment
Protocol entry in force
COMESA Common Investment
Zone
43. 04 REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND INVESTMENT
• Concrete examples: East African Community - EAC
Figure 20: Evolution of the FDI-to-GDP (%) for EAC (1980-2019)
• EAC treaty seems to have positive impact on FDI within EAC region
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Rwanda and Burundi
entered into EAC South Sudan
entered into EAC
Enter in force of EAC treaty with
Kenya, Tanzania & Uganda
44. 04 REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND INVESTMENT
• Concrete examples: Association of Southeast Asian Nations - ASEAN
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
%
1st Investment agreement
ASEAN Investment
zone agreement
ACIA establishment
CAFTA establishment
Figure 21: Evolution of the FDI-to-GDP (%) for ASEAN (1980-2019)
• Successful example with positive impact of regional integration on FDI
45. 04 REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND INVESTMENT
• Within AfCFTA investment protocol, there are some prerequisites that
need to be handled in order to boost investment
• Main levers to be handled at country level :
a) Improvement of the country’s political stability
b) Reinforcement of the macroeconomic fundamentals
c) Improvement of the global business environment
d) Reinforcement of the country’s economic infrastructures
e) Identification of the country’s comparative advantages, particularly with regards to the
economic sectors
f) Design of attractive sectorial policies, particularly for sectors identified as part of the
country’s comparative advantages
g) Reinforcement of financing mechanisms to boost domestic investment
46. 04 REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND INVESTMENT
• Main levers to be handled at regional level :
a) Inclusion of provisions related to the liberalization of investment within the region
b) Inclusion of investment protection, particularly with provision on Intellectual Property
Rights protection. This should include a specific provision for technology transfer
c) Harmonization of investment codes within all the countries in the region
d) Provision on granting national treatment to all regional investors
e) Establishment of tariff and non-tariff barriers at the region borders to protect the market
for some specific sectors
f) Establishment of mechanisms for conflict resolution within the region
g) Harmonization of investment and free trade protocol among all sub-regional economic
communities to avoid inconsistencies and difficulties in the implementation of the rules
47. OUTLINE
QUICK OVERVIEW OF EASTERN AFRICA
ECONOMIES
01
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND
CHALLENGES IN EAST AFRICA
02
RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN
05
REVIEW OF INVESTMENT
APPROACHES
03
REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND
INVESTMENT
04
48. 05 RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN
Recommendations Comments Actions Actors
1. Reinforce overall
political and economic
governance to ensure
security and political
stability
Political stability and non-
violence environment are
prerequisites for any
business development
-Reinforce democracy with strong and
independent institutions
-Address social inequalities with equitable
distribution of resources
-Ensure government accountability
-Encourage social and community
discussions to address issues
Government
Civil society
Development partners
2. Improve business
and legal environment
in the region
Business and legal
environment is a key
determinant of
investment, particularly
for attracting FDI
-Reinforce justice independency
-Fight corruption
-Streamline processes to facilitate business
creation and compliance/operation
Government
Private sector (chambers
of commerce; industry
and professional
associations)
Development partners
3. Improve and
reinforce economic
infrastructure in the
region
Economic infrastructures
are key drivers of
domestic private
investment and FDI
inflows attraction
-Design global infrastructure programs in
the region
-Design new project finance (PPP, BOT)
frameworks and ESG policies for
infrastructure projects
Regional and national
policymakers
Private sector
Development partners
49. 05 RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN
Recommendations Comments Actions Actors
4. Identify each country’s
comparative advantages
and design policies to
support their
development and
attractiveness
AfCFTA and its investment
protocol implementation
on the continent will lead
strong economic
competition among
countries, particularly
among countries in the
same region
-Identify and analyze economic sectors with
strong competitive advantages
-Implement strategic measures and policies to
develop these economic sectors and support
private entrepreneurs in these sectors
-Include specific provisions in investment codes
to grant facilities to invest in these sectors
Regional and
national
policymakers
Private sector
Development
partners
5. Strengthen
management and
governance capabilities
of the domestic
enterprises for
developing national
business champions in
key sectors
Domestic firms are
important channels for
attracting international
investments, particularly
through joint venture and
private equity investment
-Design strategies and policies to ensure
development of businesses/companies with
strong potential (domestic champions)
-Support the financing of these businesses
through tailored-made guarantee programs
-Include local content in public procurements
to grant public contracts to these domestic
firms
-Develop training programs (in management,
negotiation skill) for domestic champions
Government
Private sector
(chambers of
commerce;
industry and small
business
associations)
Development
partners
50. 05 RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN
Recommendations Comments Actions Actors
6. Improve, reinforce
and harmonize
investment codes
within the region
Competition should be fair
among countries in the
context of AfCFTA investment
protocol implementation.
Therefore, within the
negotiation of the AfCFTA
protocol on investment, it is
critical to negotiate the
harmonization of investment
codes within all African
countries.
Review and harmonize investment codes to:
-Include provisions related to the liberalization
of investment within the region
-Grant national treatment and access to
industrial sectors to all regional investors
-Include provision on investment protection
-Include provision on intellectual property
rights protection and technology transfer
mechanisms
-Establish strategic (tariff and non-tariff)
barriers at the region’s borders to protect the
domestic regional market for some specific
sectors
-Include specific provision for domestic
primary transformation for investment in
natural resources extraction
-Establish mechanisms to resolve conflicts
among countries of the region
Regional and
national
policymakers
Private sector
actors
Development
partners
51. 05 RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN
Recommendations Comments Actions Actors
7. Strengthen regional
and national financial
and banking sectors
Strong domestic and regional
financial and banking sectors are key
to finance domestic and regional
investments
-Create sectoral guarantee funds
institutions to support bank
lending to priority sectors or
reinforce the existing ones
-Create sector-oriented and
dedicated strong regional and
national development banks
-Create a common financial
market
Regional and national
policymakers
Private sector
(financial sector)
Development partners
8. Seek for negotiating
bilateral investment
treaties
The bilateral treaties should carefully
be negotiated and designed by
countries in the region to cover areas
and sectors that are not covered by
the AfCFTA investment protocol to
avoid duplications and inefficiencies
-Identify origins (country/region)
where there are trade and
investment flows opportunities
-Negotiate bilateral investment
treaties with these countries and
regions
Regional and national
policymakers
Private sector
Bilateral partners
Development partners
52. 05 RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN
Recommendations Comments Actions Actors
9. Create innovation hubs
and sandboxes to attract
investment in technology-
intensive sectors
Given the particularities of modern
technology-intensive sectors heavily
dependent on new ICT, investment
strategies need to be designed to
create an enabling environment for the
development of these cutting-edge
technological sectors
-Create innovation hubs and
sandboxes
Regional and national
policymakers
Private sector
Development partners