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2. NCDEX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS
DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20­AUG­14 697.10 692.30 687.50 684.50 682.10 679.80 677.80 672.10 667.90
SYBEANIDR 20­OCT­14 3834 3796 3758 3739 3720 3701 3682 3644 3606
RMSEED 20­AUG­14 3700 3672 3644 3626 3616 3598 3588 3560 3532
JEERAUNJHA 20­AUG­14 12168 11933 11698 11591 11463 11356 11228 10993 10758
DHANIYA 20­AUG­14 12766 12466 12166 12058 11866 11758 11565 11265 10945
CASTORSEED 20­AUG­14 4457 4352 4247 4212 4142 4107 4037 3932 3827
WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20­AUG­14 711.20 701.40 691.50 686.50 681.50 676.90 671.40 661.80 651.20
SYBEANIDR 20­OCT­14 4316 4127 3938 3829 3749 3640 3560 3370 3182
RMSEED 20­AUG­14 3841 3768 3695 3652 3622 3571 3549 3476 3403
JEERAUNJHA 20­AUG­14 12668 12283 11898 11691 11513 11306 11128 10743 10358
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3. DHANIYA 20­AUG­14 13055 12664 12273 12111 11882 11720 11491 11100 10709
CASTORSEED 20­AUG­14 4572 4424 4276 4226 4128 4078 3980 3832 3684
MCX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS
DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
CRUDE OIL 21­JULY­14 6404 6315 6226 6188 6137 6099 6048 5959 5870
GOLD 5­ AUG­14 28793 28479 28165 28051 27851 27737 27537 27223 26909
LEAD 31­JULY­14 142 139 137 136 135 134 133 131 128
NATURAL GAS 28­JULY­14 247 240 234 230 228 224 222 216 209
NICKEL 31­JULY­14 1208 1189 1170 1159 1151 1140 1132 1113 1094
SILVER 5­SEPT­14 45550 45088 44626 44453 44164 43991 43702 43240 42778
ZINC 31­JULY­14 149.20 147.50 145.90 144.95 144.20 143.30 142.60 140.95 139.30
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4. WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 31­JULY­14 134 129 124 122 120 117 115 110 106
COPPER 29­AUG­14 467 455 443 437 431 425 419 407 395
CRUDE OIL 21­JULY­14 6667 6499 6331 6240 6163 6072 5995 5827 5659
GOLD 5­ AUG­14 29790 29167 28544 28241 27921 27618 27298 26675 26052
LEAD 31­JULY­14 152 146 140 138 134 132 128 122 115
NATURAL GAS 28­JULY­14 265 253 241 234 229 222 218 206 194
NICKEL 31­JULY­14 1294 1242 1191 1170 1140 1118 1089 1037 986
SILVER 5­SEPT­14 49543 47883 46223 45252 44563 43592 42903 41243 39583
ZINC 31­JULY­14 164 157 149 146 142 139 134 127 119
MCX ­ WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
Important News
• IMF cuts global growth forecast to 3.4 percent for the current year.
• US Unemployment Claims declined to 284,000 for w/e 18th July 2014.
• Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing PMI grew to 51.9­mark in July.
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5. • UK’s Retail Sales grew by 0.1 percent in the previous month.
US Weekly Data
• US Unemployment Claims declined by 19,000 to 284,000 for the week ending on 18th July 2014 as
against a rise of 303,000 in prior week.
Flash
• Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell by 1 points to 56.3 .mark in July from 57.3­
level in June.
• New Home Sales declined to 406,000 in June with respect to 442,000 in May.
Indian Currency
• The Indian Rupee traded on a negative note on Thursday trading session and retreated from week
high and depreciated around 0.2 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency depreciated on
the back of dollar demand from state run banks for oil and defense related payments. Further,
estimates of Reserve Bank of India buying dollars continued with downside movement in the
currency.
Precious Metals
Gold Comex witnessed good slide with the commodity losing over a percent to $1290 per ounce wherein
fall was coincided with very sharp increase in volumes. in India MCX gold losing near 0.9% to Rs 27625
per 10 Gms while other key contracts like the ACE and NCDEX Gold too closed lower b y around a same
rate.
Comex Gold August slipped last week as Goldman Sachs came out with fresh negative note on the gold. .
Later, the Fed Chairman during her testimony stated that the growth of US economy is continuing
which added positivity in Dollar index. Though geopolitical issue in Ukraine and Gaza Strip tried to
support the metal in latter half, overall it finished lower. This clearly gives bears an upper hand over the
commodity. The coming week is going to be highly tricky as on one hand we have to watch at the fresh
developments over conflict between Russia­ Ukraine while on the other side, movement in equities,
currencies and on actual physical demand side would be watched. When we look at the economy related
cues, overall bias towards the US economy continues to be positive wherein in the coming week, we have
the critical CPI number along with some housing data and the Durable Goods Orders. The key for Bullion
would be the CPI gauge which as per initial estimates is seen maintaining a moderate increase on a MoM
basis. Overall looking at the broader aspects, we looks a negative view in the commodity.
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6. View ­ Bearish ( Sell on high)
1. Base Metals
• Base metals complex ended higher on Thursday lifted by better PMI data out in China and Europe.
• Indian Base metal complex moved higher on Thursday, tracking gains in the overseas markets.
Rupee depreciated against the Dollar on Thursday and also influenced prices
• Dollar index remained firm on Thursday after data from Labour Department that weekly jobless
claims in the U.S. fell by 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 284,000.
• Copper prices continued its upward momentum on Friday as investors cheered better than expected
manufacturing data out of China.
• In other news, China’s scrap copper imports plunged by 13.1% on the month to merely 263,000 MT
in June, below the average monthly volume through the first six months, Customs data indicate.
View ­ Bullish ( Buy on dip)
• Energy
Crude oil prices closed on a weaker note as markets once again started talking about weaker demand
over gasoline commodity whereas late afternoon global GDP update by the IMF too dented market
sentiment. WTI at NYMEX platform lost 1% yesterday to shut near the 102 per barrel level. commodity
may trade in positive note that better Chinese, EU and US manufacturing numbers would continue to
support prices which were already getting from the huge fall in Crude and Cushing inventories as per
latest DOE report.
View ­ Bearish (Sell on high)
Natural gas recorded a good rally yesterday backed by betterinventory numbers from the US EIA. NYMEX
NG August jumped 2.25% to $3.84 per MMBTU. NG active July expiry at MCX too managed a near
similar performance gaining by 2% to Rs 231.50 per barrel.
NCDEX ­ WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
MANSOON WATCH
• Monsoon deficit reduces further to 24% as on 24th July from 25%
• Moderate recovery seen for Oil complex, Guar and Spices on short covering after the recent
significant fall in rates. Some pickup in demand seen at these lower levels
• Firmness in International markets keep trend firm in oil complex
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7. SETELITE IMAGE OF INDIAN WHETHER CONDITION AS ON 11/07/2014 9.45 A.M.
CHANA
Chana got some support at the lower levels after the recent massive corrections in prices. There was
some pick up in demand at these low rates in the mandis. However rains in Central and North­west India
kept market sentiments weak for the commodity. Traders anticipate prices to be at low levels and expect
downtrend to be limited from these levels.
Monsoon progress for next few days remains critical. Sowing of Kharif Pulses are likely to get adversely
affected if delayed and below normal Monsoon is maintained. Drought like conditions and heat wave
delaying sowing of most crops, monsoon rains were 25% below normal till date.
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8. As per latest reports of sowing of kharif crops, kharif sowing area has crossed 345.60 lakh hectare. It is
reported that as on 18.7.2014, rice has been sown/transplanted in 127.36 lakh ha, pulses in 21.58 lakh
ha, coarse cereals in 48.43 lakh ha, and oilseeds in 38.07 lakh ha. The planting of sugarcane and cotton
is also in progress. Sugarcane has been planted in 46.09 lakh ha and cotton in 56.00 lakh ha as on today.
Higher Pulses production for 2013­14 has been keeping sentiments weak so far. As per 3rd Advanced
crop estimates by Govt of India, India is likely to produce record Foodgrains in 2013­14 at 264.38 MT.
Record production in Tur(3.38 MT), Chana (9.93MT) and overall Pulses at a record 19.57 MT.
On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall in Dollar vs Re
has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Canada low resulting in further
weakening of market sentiments.
In the first nine months of fiscal 2013­14, pulses arrivals from abroad aggregated 2 mt; for the whole
year, imports are projected at 2.6 mt, sharply down from 3.8 mt last year, according to Commerce
Ministry data.
SOYABEAN / REFI.SOYA
Indian oil seed complex prices moved lower on weak overseas prices amid ideas of better domestic crop
growth conditions due to beneficial rains in key central India Soy growing areas.
• Monsoon rains in India were 25% below average levels since 1st June.
• According to 3rd Advance estimates released by GoI, India’s output for the following crops in 2013­14
year are:­ Soybean­ 11.95 million MT, RM Seed – 7.83 million MT.
• Soy meal exports from India, fell sharply to 2,637 MT in June from 8.226 MT in May vs. 213,564 MT
in June 2013. India's oil meal exports in June 2014 were 193K MT vs. 161K MT in previous month and
360K MT in June 2013.
• India imported 860K MT of veg oils in June vs. 1022K MT in May and 911K MT in June 2013. India
imported 598K MT of Palm oil, 99K MT of Soy oil and 155K MT of Sun oil in June 2014.
India Physical Market Rates
23­Jul­14 Soybean ­ Indore – NCDEX 4216.00 Rs. / 100 Kg
23­Jul­14 Soybean ­ Kota ­ NCDEX 4350.35 Rs. / 100 Kg
23­Jul­14 Soybean ­Nagpur ­ NCDEX 4280.25 Rs. / 100 Kg
23­Jul­14 Refined Soy oil ­ Indore ­ NCDEX 686.90 Rs. / 10 Kg
23­Jul­14 Refined Soy oil ­ Mumbai ­ NCDEX 674.10 Rs. / 10 Kg
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9. 23­Jul­14 Refined Soy oil ­ Nagpur ­ NCDEX 701.50 Rs. / 10 Kg
23­Jul­14 Soybean meal Export ­ Kandla – NCDEX 39750.00 Rs. / MT
23­Jul­14 Soybean meal ­ Indore ­ NCDEX 38600.00 Rs. / MT
23­Jul­14 Soy meal Export Kandla FAS ­ SEA 650.00 USD / MT
23­Jul­14 Mustard meal Export Kandla FAS ­ SEA 240.00 USD / MT
23­Jul­14 Mustard oil ­ Sri Ganganagar ­ NCDEX 685.50 Rs. / 10 Kg
NCDEX Warehouse Inventory
Particular 21­Jul­14 22­Jul­14
Soybean ­ Akola 27007 22628
Soybean ­ Nagpur 544 332
Soybean ­ Sagar 151 151
TOTAL SOYBEAN 27702 23111
CBOT Soya complex
Prices moved higher yesterday after days of lower price movement. Soybean prices rose from near 4 year
low yesterday on reports of lower rains in some US Soy areas.
• As of 20 July, US Soybeans was rated 73% good to excellent vs.72% a week ago and 64% a year ago.
• According to CFTC CoT report, for the week ending 15 July, non commercial traders increased their
net short positions in CBOT Soybeans.
• ICE Canola prices closed higher yesterday.
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10. This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research
Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on
Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best,
represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information
only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any
way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research
expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this
connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities
or commodities.
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