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Energy Security in India
Vedant Pradip Makwana
Applied Petroleum Engineering - Upstream, Dept. of Petroleum and Earth Sciences
University of Petroleum and Earth Sciences
Dehradun, India
vedant.makwana@stu.upes.ac.in
Abstract—India, inhabiting 1.2 billion people is facing
considerable energy scarcity. With oil and gas prices hiking,
India faces a fight to secure future energy needs. Energy
security as defined by the Government of India is when the
population of the country has access to their daily energy
needs irrespective of whether they are able to pay for it.
India’s GDP currently stands at a nominal 1.842 trillion USD
and is growing rapidly at almost 7% annually. This growth
needs to be complemented by a huge increase in the energy
sector. Quadrupling the present day energy production by
2030 can help overcome this energy crisis. Moreover we face
challenges in all the E&P sectors. Since the introduction of
NELP in 1999, 60 deposits have been discovered of which only
2 are in the production phase. This outlines a picture of the
poor state of the E&P industry. Even though the unexplored
area has gone down from 41% to 12% in the last decade,
increase in production is minimal. Development of well-
defined guidelines and an investment friendly government is
the need of the hour. The taxing and royalty agreements
should be clear with no ambiguity. The midstream sector is
riddled with problems of its own; India’s pipeline density of
0.003km/sq.km is among the lowest in the world leading to
transportation problems and geopolitical issues have stalled
pipeline projects from the Middle East. The lack of clarity on
gas pricing also makes India an unattractive destination for
investment. Since the Fukushima- Diachii reactor meltdown,
the demand for gas has increased from countries like Japan
and South Korea leading to higher prices. Another step
towards energy security is to secure overseas assets but there
we face stiff competition from China who overpay for assets,
promise development schemes and offer soft loans. The
energy needs of this country can be met by developing the
renewable and alternative sources of energy serving the vast
energy needs of these country. The following research paper
discusses the problems faced by Oil and Gas sector in our
country and suggests the possible ways by which the
conditions can be made better. Also discussed is the potential
of the renewable energy in India and its role in making India
self-sufficient and energy secure. Securing the energy needs
of our country is of paramount importance but the challenge
we are facing holds such magnitude that apprehension of
failure is unavoidable. Energy security is the key.
Keywords—energy scarcity ; NELP ; unexplored area ;
investment friendly government ; pipeline density ;
transportation problems ; geopolitical issue ; overseas assets
;renewable sources
I. INTRODUCTION
Energy is the prime mover of a country’s economic
growth. Availability of energy with required quality of
supply is not only key to sustainable development, but the
commercial energy also have a parallel impact and
influence on the quality of service in the fields of
education, health and, in fact, even food security. In the last
decade India has been one of the most developing countries
of the world with an average GDP growth of around 6%
and around 8% in last couple of years. With the growing
GDP of 8%, India is moving parallel to China in terms of
development, but the energy consumption is catching up as
well. But the country is finding it increasingly difficult to
source all the oil, natural gas, and electricity it needs to run
its booming factories, fuel its cars, and light up its homes.
According to a report by IEA (International Energy
Agency), India needs to invest a total of 800 billion dollars
in various stages by 2030 to meet its energy demand. India
accounts to around 2.4% of the annual world energy
production, but on the other hand consumes 3.3% of the
annual world energy supply[1] and this imbalance is
estimated to surpass Japan and Russia by 2030 placing
India into the third position in terms of annual energy
consumption. Therefore, after summing up all the energy
issues, energy security has been identified as the only tool
to overcome the energy concerns.
The promise of energy security is alluring. For an
import-dependent country like India, energy security is no
longer just a desire, but a critical imperative for an
economy which is at the threshold of maturity as a growing
one. A task seemingly impossible to achieve, yet worth
pursuing; a dream realisable only when the country starts
producing hydrocarbons in sufficient quantities.
Energy security relates to the availability of energy
and the impact it has on national security. Cheap energy is
a prerequisite for functioning of modern economies and the
material well-being of its population. India, one of the
world’s fastest growing economies is energy hungry and
has a rapidly growing energy demand. Coping with this
demand is one of the biggest tasks our country has ever
faced.
II. BACKGROUND AND HISTORICAL
TRENDS
Availability of energy and progress have run hand in
hand from the discovery of fire to the usage of crude for
our daily purposes. The changing lifestyles and modern
society have created the need to provide a continuous
supply of energy to every individual.
India has never been energy excess since 1947, we
have always faced energy shortages which have hindered
our economic growth and development.
It was highlighted by the severe shortage’s we faced
in 2012 when the entire north grid collapsed which was
followed by the collapse of the eastern grid and around 300
million people were without power for more than 24 hours.
India is suffering from huge estimated shortages of
nearly 10% in energy terms and almost 17% in peak energy
demands as per 2007/08. Energy and peak demand
shortages in 2003/04 were 7.1% and 11.2% respectively.
[2] These shortages are increasing rapidly due to increasing
demand and our inability to have met more than 40%-50%
of the targeted capacity addition required in the last three
five year plans. This is the situation when almost 50% of
the rural population does not even have access to
electricity.
Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2000
Fig.1. Indian Energy Consumption in Past Decades
III. LONG TERM AND SHORT TERM
SECURITY
Long-term energy security aims to reduce dependence on
any one source of imported energy, increase the number of
suppliers and focus on exploiting native fossil fuel or
renewable energy resources. Energy conservation
measures to reduce the overall demand of energy are of
great importance to ensure long term security. Other
methods involve entering into international agreements to
strengthen international energy trading relationships, such
as the Energy Charter Treaty in Europe. Long term security
measures will help reduce the future cost of importing and
exporting fuel into and out of countries without having to
worry about harm coming to the goods being transported.
Various incidents in the past, viz. the 1973 oil crisis
and the emergence of the OPEC cartel have prompted
countries to increase their energy security plan. Japan,
almost totally dependent on imported oil, steadily
introduced the use of natural gas, nuclear power, high-
speed mass transit systems, and implemented energy
conservation measures. The United
Kingdom began exploiting North Sea oil and gas
reserves, and became a net exporter of energy into the
2000s. India is carrying out a major hunt for domestic oil
to decrease its dependency on OPEC, while other countries
like Iceland are changing their outlook by deploying
renewable sources of energy.
Short term energy security focuses on the ability of
the energy system to react promptly to sudden changes in
the supply-demand balance. Evaluation of individual
sources and fuels:
A. Petroleum
Crude oil is the most widely used resource in the
world. With all the oil wells located around the world,
energy security has become a main issue to ensure the
safety of the petroleum that is being harvested. Oil fields
in the middle-east have become main targets for sabotage
because of how heavily countries rely on oil. Many
countries hold strategic petroleum reserves as a buffer
against the economic and political impacts of an energy
crisis. Members of the International Energy Agency hold a
minimum of 90 days of their oil imports to use in crisis.
The value of such reserves was demonstrated by the
relative lack of disruption caused by the 2007 Russia-
Belarus energy dispute, when Russia indirectly cut exports
to several countries in the European Union.
B. Natural Gas
Natural gas is a very viable source of energy in the
world. Consisting of mostly methane, natural gas is
produced using two methods: biogenic and thermo genic.
Biogenic gas comes from methanogenic organisms located
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1971 1997 2010 2020
MTOE
YEARS
India- Energy
Consumption
Energy Consumption
in marshes and landfills, whereas thermogenic gas comes
from the anaerobic decay of organic matter deep under the
Earth's surface. Russia is the current leading country in
production of natural gas.
Reliance of energy sector on imported natural gas
creates significant short-term vulnerabilities. One of the
biggest problems currently facing natural gas providers is
the ability to store and transport it. With its low density, it
is difficult to build enough pipelines to transport sufficient
natural gas to match the growing demand. The pipelines
being built are reaching near capacity and even at full
capacity, they do not contain the amount of gas needed.
IV. LEARNING FROM GLOBAL SCENARIO
The New Exploration and Licensing Policy came into
existence in 1997 and became effective in February, 1999.
Since then nine rounds of bidding under NELP I to NELP
IX have been conducted so far and 254 blocks have been
awarded for exploration. NELP introduced some attractive
reforms in the old and obsolete hydrocarbon policy of
India.
a) 100% Foreign Direct Investment.
b) Scrapping of mandatory NOC participation.
c) Exemption from payments of import duty on
goods imported for petroleum operations.
d) No provision of bonuses.
Despite all these features the recent response from
operator companies has not met expectations of the policy
makers. The probable reasons are:
a) Government dictations on pricing of resources.
b) Same Production Sharing Contract for onshore
and deep offshore bocks irrespective of the
different issues and risks for the different type of
blocks.
c) Scrapping of seven year tax holiday on NELP gas
output in the 2008-09 finance bill.
d) Restricted shale reservoir access to private
explorers and lack of data related to on sale
blocks.
e) Waiting to bid and win the block of interest as
there is no choice of blocks under NELP.
Hence there is a need to work upon the current
policy framework to make it more appealing to
international and private explorers. It’s high time to
introspect and compare our policies with the international
best like Norway and Columbia who have increased the
presence of International Oil Companies (IOCs) through
regulatory reforms in hydrocarbon policy framework and
frame our policy in such a way that it makes India an
attractive destination for foreign investment through IOCs.
The following are the key features of the Norway and
Columbia’s Oil and Gas Policy:
A. Norway
A Scandinavian Country in Northern Europe which
has become a booming Oil and Gas Industry, but it was not
always like that. The country has taken major steps to reach
its current state, some of which are as under:
a) The Tax regime is clear and Investment friendly
Tax Rate = Base Tax(28%)-Uplift(7.5% for 4
Years)[3]
b) Clarity in States Roles: There is uniformity in the
Oil and Gas Policy made by Ministry of
Petroleum and Energy (MPE) which is not
contested by the any other Ministry in Norway.
c) Predictability , Transparency and Stability in the
Energy Policy
d) A balance has been maintained between the
international and domestic companies
participation in block allocation, which has led to
transfer of technical know-how to indigenous
companies.
As a result of the above policies they have a thriving
Oil and Gas Sector and currently over 50 MNC’s are
operating in Norway. [3]
B. Columbia
A South American country bordering oil rich
Venezuela, the country was producing oil at an optimal rate
till 1999 of around 850,000 barrels per day. The production
started to decrease in 1999 and hit record lows of around
604,000 barrels in 2008. This prompted the country to
bring in the following reforms:-
a) The Government’s stake in the NOC was
decreased from 100% to 90% to boost public
perception.
b) A flat 40% discount on royalty was offered.
c) New tax policies were framed and were
favourable to the IOC’s to obtain investment in
the fields.
As a result of these policies Columbia became a prime
destination for the MNC’s to come and invest. Currently it
exports around 70% of its total crude oil production which
is more than 1 MMBBL.
V. ENERGY DEMAND IN INDIA
Today, India is the fifth largest energy consumer in
the world. While the world consumes 12000 million tonnes
of oil equivalent (MTOE) of energy resources, India
consumes 4.4% of the world total (524.2 MTOE). Global
consumption of primary commercial energy (coal, oil &
natural gas, nuclear and major hydro) has grown at a rate
of 2.6% over the last decade. In India, the growth rate of
demand is around 6.8%, while the supply is expected to
increase at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of
only 1%. [4]
Of the total primary energy consumption basket, oil
and gas constitute 45% share in the total energy basket mix.
It is projected that even if we exploit hydropower potential
to the fullest, even if there is a 40 fold increase in the
contribution of renewable resources and a 20 fold increase
in the contribution of nuclear power capacity, by the year
2031-32, fossil fuels will continue to occupy a significant
share in the energy basket (74% to 85% of the energy
mix).[5]
The size of the oil and gas industry in terms of
turnover stands at USD 160 bn. The value of crude oil and
LNG imports into India in 2010/11 were around US$98
billion. About 78 per cent of India‘s petroleum
consumption is met from imports (mostly of crude oil),
while about 25% of natural gas (including LNG)
consumption comes from imports. [5] It is estimated that
in the coming years, the import dependency for crude oil
alone would reach above 90% level.
VI. ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF ENERGY
Renewable energy is defined as energy that comes
from resources which are naturally replenished on a human
timescale such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves and
geothermal heat. The environmental benefits of renewable
energy technologies are widely recognized, but the
contribution that they can make to energy security is less
well known. Renewable technologies can enhance energy
security in electricity generation, heat supply, and
transportation.
The deployment of renewable technologies increases
the diversity of electricity sources and, through local
generation, contributes to the flexibility of the system and
its resistance to central shocks. For those countries where
growing dependence on imported gas is a significant
energy security issue, renewable technologies can provide
alternative sources of electric power as well as displacing
electricity demand through direct heat production.
Renewable biofuels for transport represent a key source of
diversification from petroleum products.
As the resources that have been so crucial to survival
in the world to this day start declining in numbers,
countries will begin to realize that the need for renewable
fuel sources will be as vital as ever. The world will see a
rise in the production of new types of energy, including
solar, geothermal, hydro-electric, biofuel and wind power.
Renewable energy in India comes under the purview
of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. India was
the first country in the world to set up a ministry of
nonconventional energy resources in the early 1980s.
India's cumulative grid interactive or grid tied renewable
energy capacity (excluding large hydro) has reached 29.9
GW, of which 68.9% comes from wind, while solar PV
contributed nearly 4.59% of the renewable energy installed
capacity in India.
Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Govt. of India.
Fig.2.Sources of Renewable Energy in India.
A. Wind Power
India has the fifth largest installed wind power
capacity in the world.[6] As of December 2013 the
installed capacity of wind power in India was 20149.50
MW, mainly spread across Tamil Nadu (7162.18 MW),
Maharashtra (3021.85 MW), Gujarat (3174.58 MW)[7],
Karnataka (2135.50 MW), Rajasthan (2684.65 MW),
Madhya Pradesh(386.00 MW), Andhra Pradesh (447.65
MW), Kerala (35.10 MW), West Bengal (1.10 MW), other
states (3.20 MW). It is estimated that 6,000 MW of
additional wind power capacity will be installed in India by
2018.
B. Solar Power
India has high solar insolation, an ideal combination
for using solar power in India. Various solar power
generation programs have been launched, viz. The Indian
Solar Loan Program (2003) and The Jawaharlal Nehru
National Solar Mission (2009) with plans to generate 1,000
MW of power by 2013 and up to 20,000 MW grid-based
solar power, 2,000 MW of off-grid solar power and cover
20 million sq. meters with collectors by the end of the final
phase of the mission in 2020. [8]
The potential for generation of energy from
renewable sources in India is huge and with guided
compliance of the government and the people this energy
can be made available commercially. A boost in the
renewable energy sector will help take the pressure off the
conventional departments and help solidify the drowning
Wind Power
Solar Power
Small Hydro
Power
Biomass
Power
Bagasse
Cogeneration
Waste to
Power
industry. Renewable energy holds the key to a sustainable
crisis free future.
VII. KEY ISSUES LIMITING GROWTH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF INDIA’S OIL AND GAS
SECTOR
The Indian oil and gas industry has to deal with
myriad issues. While some of the challenges such as
regulatory uncertainty, subsidized petroleum prices and
regulated gas prices are specific to the domestic oil and gas
industry, players still need to address rampant global issues
such as manpower deficit and the impact of inadequate
and ageing infrastructure. Some of the important issues
faced across the value chain are discussed below.
The oil and gas sector is divided in 3 main sectors
which are Upstream, Midstream and Downstream. The
issues each of the sectors are facing is given below
A. UPSTREAM
Upstream Sector is challenged by following problems
a) Inadequate Upstream Infrastructure
The upstream oil and gas infrastructure in
India is inadequate due to underinvestment in the
past. As a result, the production of oil and gas
remained rise in demand. The sector has limited
participation from foreign and private players as
is visible from their declining participation in
New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP)
rounds. For instance, a total of 21 foreign
companies participated in NELP-VII (2008); ten
foreign companies took part in NELP-VIII
(2009), while only eight companies took part in
NELP-IX (2011) [10]. Further, companies have
spent just US$7.2 billion, out of their investment
commitment of US$20.7 billion until NELP VII
[11]. Although the unexplored sedimentary area
in the country decreased from 41% in FY99 to
12% in FY10, the level of exploration will have
to be further raised to increase hydrocarbon
production. India is finding it difficult to
commercialize its oil and gas discoveries. Since
the introduction of NELP in 1999, there have been
60 discoveries, out of which 51 are gas
discoveries. However, out of these 51 discoveries,
only 2 have entered production phase. [12]
b) Shortage of Oil Field Services[13]
The rising demand for oil and gas has
resulted in an increase in exploration activities
worldwide, leading to the shortage of oilfield
services, particularly deep-water rigs. In line with
the global trend, India is facing a shortage of
oilfield services, especially drilling equipment.
Companies are increasingly falling short of their
exploration targets with a high incidence of cost
overruns and delays in work commitments. The
issue is accentuated by the lack of domestic
expertise in the manufacture of rigs, particularly
deep-water rigs, and the time lag in the delivery
of new rigs. Further, most of the rig assets held by
Indian companies are aging. Over the next few
years , theses old rigs are either have to be retired
or substantially upgraded to remain operational,
which is likely to further increase the shortage. In
addition to rigs, there is a scarcity of other
upstream-related infrastructure such as process
platforms, pipelines, collecting stations and other
surface facilities to transport oil and gas from
wells to delivery points.
c) Acute Shortage of Skilled Human Resource[13]
India is facing a shortage of skilled
manpower due to attrition, retirement and the
inability to attract the young workforce. The
industry is unable to attract talent from
universities due to lack of awareness of the
available careen opportunities within the industry
and difficult working conditions, especially the
upstream sector .Other industries provide
attractive career opportunities. Moreover,
domestic national Oil companies are losing their
employees to the private sector due to significant
differences in remuneration levels. Around 11%
of the current workforce may retire over the next
few years, resulting in significant loss of
experienced personnel. Over the next few years,
the shortage of talent is likely to increase, which
may impact operations across the value chain.
There will be a requirement of around 25,000
additional professionals over the next few years
due to attrition, retirement and increasing
activities in the industry. The upstream segment is
likely to have a highest shortfall of skilled
manpower of around 7,600 employees. [14]
d) Increased Competition to procure Oil Equity
abroad.[15]
The acquisition of oil assets abroad is
emerging as a key challenge for India as the
country is facing stiff competition, especially
from China, in its quest to secure oil resources.
The aggressive acquisitions of Chinese NOCs
are often backed by state financing from China
Investment Corp., the country’s sovereign
wealth fund that has a corpus of around US$375
billion [16] .In addition, Chinese companies are
supported by diplomatic initiatives of the
Chinese Government, offer to invest in social
infrastructure projects and the provision of soft
loans to countries where they are seeking access
to oil and gas reserves. The GoI is encouraging
Indian companies to expand their overseas
operations. However, India’s overseas
investments in oil and gas lag behind that of
Chinese companies. While Indian companies
view overseas projects as a commercial activity
and mostly acquire assets based on returns,
Chinese national oil companies are often ready
to overpay for assets to strengthen energy
security, overlooking project economics.
Though Indian companies currently have assets
in high risk countries such as Sudan and Syria,
they follow a strategy is to purchase additional
assets in relatively safe countries. In contrast,
Chinese companies are not averse to invest in
unstable regions.
B. Midstream
The midstream sector in India faces challenges of its
own, some being
a) Underdeveloped Natural Gas Infrastructure
The natural gas infrastructure in the country
needs an overhaul. The infrastructure is
currently underdeveloped due to limited
availability of natural gas and inadequate
transmission and distribution pipelines.
India’s gas pipeline density (pipelines
spread per sq.km) is one of the lowest in the
world. As a result, the share of natural gas in
the overall energy mix is only 10% as
against the global average of 24%. [17]
TABLE I. Comparison of Pipeline Density -2010
Source: CIA the World Fact Book and Ernst & Young analysis
b) Regulated Natural Gas prices
India currently has numerous pricing
mechanisms, which depend on the supplier,
customer and region. Companies need
government approval for gas price and the
pricing formula, despite being given the
autonomy to charge market determined prices
under the provisions of the NELP. The price of
natural gas needs to be high enough to
incentivize producers to invest in exploration
and production, while at the same time be
affordable for majority of gas consumers. The
following are some of the current gas prices
prevailing in the country. [18]
TABLE II. Unregulated Gas Prices-2010
*Administered gas price
Source: Deutsche Bank
c) Difficulty in sourcing long term gas supplies
from abroad
The import of gas in the form of LNG and
the transmission of gas through transnational
pipelines are two options available to meet the
rising domestic demand for natural gas. Indian
companies are constructing new LNG terminals
and expanding the capacities of existing
terminals. However, the country is facing
difficulties in searching long-term LNG supplies
due to competition from countries such as China,
Japan and South Korea. Qatar-The World’s
largest LNG supplier – recently agreed to fulfil
all the long-term LNG requirements of GAIL
India and Petronet. However, discussions were
suspended due to pricing issues. [19] In the past,
India proposed to lay transnational pipelines and
was in talks with countries such as Iran, Pakistan
(Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline), Turkmenistan,
and Afghanistan (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-
Pakistan India pipeline) and Myanmar
(Myanmar–India pipeline). However,
differences over gas pricing and geopolitical
issues have created hurdles in the construction of
these pipelines. The challenge for India will be
Country Estimated pipeline density
(Km/sq. km.)
India 0.003
The UK 0.05
The US 0.05
Pakistan 0.01
China 0.004
Source of gas Wellhead price
(US/mmbtu)
Fields-APM* 4.2
KG D6 4.2
LNG (Contracted) –
Dahej terminal
7.5 to 8
LNG (Spot) 14 to 16
Panna Mukta 5.57 to 5.73
to arrange long-term supplies at reasonable
prices as anchor gas customers i.e., fertilizers
and power industries may not be able to pay
market-determined prices.
C. Downstream
There are several other problems which are being
faced by Downstream Sector in India
a) Subsidized Petroleum prices impacting
operations of NOCs.[20]
The GOI deregulated the Prices of petrol;
however the state-owned oil marketing
companies (OMCs) continue to sell petroleum
products such as kerosene, Liquid Petroleum Gas
(LPG) at subsidized rates, which are much lower
than the cost of production. This is resulting in
significant under-recoveries for OMCs. Under-
recoveries are expected to increase further from
INR782 billion in FY13 to nearly INR 1,320
billion in FY12 [21]. In FY13, around 52.5% of
under-recoveries were compensated by the GoI in
the form of oil bonds and cash, 38.7% by
upstream companies in the form of discounts,
while the remaining 8.8% have to be borne by
OMCs. The rising under-recoveries and the
current subsidy sharing mechanism followed by
the Government have consequences of the
financial health of OMCs and Energy Security of
the country. OMCs are facing severe liquidity
issues, which, if not addressed at the earliest, may
result in disruption in sourcing imported crude,
leading to lower refinery utilization and possible
shutdown of refineries. [22] The option of
borrowing funds is also limited as OMCs are
already carrying considerable debt on their
balance sheets. For instance, as of 30 September
2013, Hindustan Petroleum had a debt equity
(DE) ratio of 5.1:1, while Bharat Petroleum had
DE ratio of 3:1 [23].The shortage of cash has
impacted working capital requirements and may
put further strain on companies to finance
maintenance work and smaller projects. [24]
State-owned OMCs plan to increase their
upstream activities to de-risk their core
downstream businesses. For instance, Indian Oil
Corporation (IOC) is planning to either setup an
upstream subsidiary or create a separate division
within the company that will entirely focus on
exploration and production activities. [25]
However, huge under recoveries have reduced
cash reserves, which may prevent OMCs from
investing substantial amounts to scale up their
upstream business.
b) Challenges in developing CGD networks
Insufficient gas supplies, poorly
developed pipeline infrastructure and
uncertainty over regulatory policies are some
of the main factors deterring the growth of the
city gas distribution (CGD) networks in India.
Although India has a CGD network in 41 cities,
the network is not widespread across majority
of the cities. Only New Delhi, Mumbai and
some parts of Gujarat have a prominent gas
distribution network. According to India’s Gas
allocation policy, the power and fertilizer
industries get a preferential allotment of
domestic gas supplies, which leaves very little
domestic gas for CGD companies. To satisfy
demand, existing CGD companies may have to
source increasing quantities of expensive
RLNG, which may increase the prices of
compressed natural gas (CNG) and piped
natural gas (PNG) as well as impact margins. It
is likely that new CGD networks will have to
source R-LNG, which may affect the returns of
proposed CGD projects. [26]
The shortage of experienced manpower is
yet another issue that needs to be overcome.
With the aggressive growth plans of many
companies, it is estimated that the industry will
require around 4,500 people over the next few
years.[14]
Some of the other challenges that may
hinder the growth of the nascent CGD industry
in India include the lack of safety standards and
network of reliable equipment suppliers.
c) Tax / Regulatory Issues
i. Refining
Sunset clause for tax holiday for
mineral oil refineries: Tax holiday
under section 80IB of the Act will
not be available to mineral Oil
refineries that commence refining
after 31 March 2012.
ii. City Gas Distribution
Absence of a clear regulatory
framework for developing CGD
networks: The absence of clear
regulatory provisions has hampered the
development of the domestic CGD
industry. Licenses for CGD projects
under round 2 and round 3 of CGD
bidding are yet to be awarded.
Moreover, the uncertainty over the
bidding criteria recently led to the
cancellation of the fourth round of
CGD bidding. Eligibility criteria for
CGD bidding lack provision for
commitment and are very flexible. This
allows inexperienced players to bid,
who may find it difficult to develop
and/or operate the network. Moreover,
in previous rounds, bids have been
invited for areas, which are too small or
underdeveloped to sustain the CGD
business profitably and hence, attract
only a few bids or no bids at all.
VIII. POLICIES FOR MEETING INDIA’S
ENERGY SECURITY
For mitigating the afore discussed challenges there
are some proposed policies to be enacted upon which
would help India to become energy secure.
A. Acquiring Assets
The most important policy required for assured
availability of energy, is investing in energy assets abroad
and developing domestic infrastructure for receiving
LNG. Further, a well-structured arrangement should exist
in the oil sector in India. Imports of 7.5 million tonnes of
LNG on a long-term supply basis for 25 years have been
planned by Petro net LNG at Dahej under an agreement
with Qatar. Another 1.5 million tonnes has been tied up
with Exxon Mobil for 20 years from Gorgan LNG project
in Australia. As part of the investment policy, a joint
venture has been set up in Oman for producing fertilizers
for 1.9 million tonnes per year. It will be useful to set up
similar projects in Qatar, Australia, Egypt, Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan and Mozambique or other countries, if gas
is available. These initiatives need further expansion. The
OVL oil equity so far accounts for only 9% of India's
current oil import requirements. If these assets were to
meet only 10% of the requirements in 2031-32, the
investments will have to be multiplied six times, if the
success rate continues to be as at present.
There is another dimension to these investments. The
price of energy is rising as the two economies of India and
China are developing rapidly at 9%-10% per annum. The
cost of acquisition, therefore, has to take into account the
price of energy over the next two decades. For example,
cost of oil extraction may be $ 20 per barrel but assets
where such acquisitions can be done at $ 40 per barrel also
need to be looked at. These decisions have to be taken in
the context of expected energy prices. While this takes us
in the realm of speculation, the assessment is that of
acquisitions which are profitable at this juncture at about $
50 are likely to remain so. The average cost of oil for a
country can be reduced by having profitable energy assets.
The cost of energy security, therefore, can pay for itself in
direct price terms, apart from its overall benefits to the
economy in helping economic activities. Acquisition of
energy has to be seen in a wider perspective of price
scenarios in the next two decades rather than the
conservative $ 18-20 per barrel price assumptions.
B. Diversifying Sources
To strengthen energy security of imports, the second
policy initiative required is diversification of energy
import sources. In respect of oil, for example, we can tap
markets in Venezuela, Columbia, Brazil, Africa,
countries of the Middle East and South America. Since
the types of oil available from these may not suit our
refineries, we will have to develop adequate capabilities
to process various types of oil. This will enable flexibility
in acquisition. Similarly, sourcing of natural gas and LNG
needs to be from a host of sources. This may include
Qatar, Australia, Middle East, Iran, Kazakhstan and
Turkmenistan. Some of the pipelines from Iran and
Turkmenistan may pass via Afghanistan and Pakistan.
We will have to find innovative ways to meet our security
concerns. These could be in the form of energy pipelines
being owned by large international conglomerates backed
by major world economies or funded by international
financial organizations. In some of the other oil-rich
countries, like Iran, USA has imposed sanctions. We will
have to negotiate with them to work out appropriate
arrangements. A spread of supply resource to different
regions will help strengthen the energy security structure
further.
C. Improving Storage facilities
The third policy initiative is the development of
crude oil/gas storage capacities for meeting exigencies.
OECD countries have developed oil storages of 90 days
of import requirements. In India, we are developing 5
million tonnes of oil storage, which is equivalent to 15
days of current import requirements. This is being
developed in the form of storage tanks Visakhapatnam (1
MT), Mangalore (1.5 MT) and Padur (2.5MT). In
addition, oil companies have, as inventory, crude oil
products of around 85 days of import requirements. This
generally includes only 15 days of crude reserves.
Similarly, GAIL and other gas companies have gas in
their pipelines. These inventories kept by the oil and gas
companies cannot be treated as strategic reserves but as
operating stocks. The carrying cost of proposed reserve is
high and may go up if oil prices increase. The cost of
inventory itself may be around $3 billion with carrying
costs being around 1,500-2,000 crore per annum. In case
of 90 days of the inventory, the carrying cost may be still
higher (10,000-12,000 crore). Further, the cost of
construction will have to be separately accounted for.
There is clearly a need to think of innovative methods to
develop these storages. It is possible to discuss with oil
companies for creation of an inventory within the country
in collaboration with international players. This could be
available to us when we require it in the event of a supply
disruption. Some of this storage could be outside the
country too.
An important issue in this context is the funding of
these inventories. Since this is a part of overall
government policy, the cost of it will have to be borne by
the government. To raise funds for the carrying costs and
the management of these inventories, it may be necessary
to impose a cess of 1.5%-2% on crude oil imported by us.
An alternative could be a slightly lower cess be imposed
on the downstream products. It appears more appropriate
to tax the crude oil itself, as it will be easier to collect.
Also given the different nature of products and nature of
government control on pricing of various oil products, the
possibility of cess and its realization in the overall costs
may raise problems. Cess of this magnitude should be
adequate to meet the inventory costs of the oil for 90 days.
D. Maximizing Domestic Reserves
In the oil sector, India has adopted an aggressive
policy to expand domestic production by developing a
transparent regime for award of oil blocks. So far, 234
blocks have been awarded after 8 rounds of NELP.
Exploration of oil and gas are long term investments. So
far there have been major finds by Reliance, ONGC,
Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation and Cairn Energy.
The availability of oil, of nearly 6 million tonnes per
annum, which is 20% of the country's domestic
production, is by Cairn Energy. In the 1960s, exploration
was done by ONGC and it was found that there was no
possibility of oil in these blocks in Rajasthan.
Subsequently; the block was with the international
company Shell. They could not find any oil in the area.
For nearly 30 years, this block continued to be
unexplored, the general impression was that Rajasthan
does not have oil. The block was taken up by a small
group from Scotland. A geologist, after considering the
data, felt that it may be possible to find oil in the area.
Subsequently, in a period of 4 – 5 years, the
comparatively new player developed a number of oil
fields.
E. Domestic demand and management
a) Energy Intensity
The primary concern of management of
domestic demand is to develop an energy
efficient economy so that the energy intensity of
the GDP goes down. In the context of climate
change, so far this has assumed major
importance. Most countries of the world are
undertaking measures to achieve this objective.
According to Integrated Energy Policy, India's
energy intensity was 0.16 kg of oil equivalent
(kgoe) per dollar of GDP expressed in
purchasing power parity terms. This is
significantly lower than 0.23 kgoe of China, 0.22
kgoe of US and the world average of 0.21 kgoe.
However, Japan had 0.15 kgoe and European
countries, like Germany and the UK are better
off. Several measures have been taken recently
to promote energy efficiency.
b) Empowering energy efficiency
The next category of initiatives as proposed
includes programs for energy efficiency in
domestic lighting, municipal, agricultural and
commercial building sectors. It is also proposed
to make energy efficiency standards mandatory
for equipment and appliances used in domestic
sector, hotel equipment, office equipment,
transport equipment, industrial products etc. It
also mandates technology improvement
program, energy conservation building code and
disseminating measures for generally creating a
climate of energy efficiency. This is clearly a
step in the right direction. One of the major
components of the program is introduction of
super critical boilers in power plants and
promoting energy efficiency in existing plants.
The average energy efficiency of coal in the
Indian power plants is around 30%-33%. With
the introduction of super critical technology, it is
possible to increase this to 40% or more. Around
80% of the coal is consumed in the power sector.
If energy efficiency in this sector can be
improved substantially, the requirement of coal
imports can be reduced drastically, thereby
reducing domestic demand. Similarly, IGCC
(Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)
technology and promoting energy efficiency in
existing plants, many of which are quite old, is
important. Introduction of advanced super
critical boilers, which have energy efficiency
higher than above, is another important step.
F. Reducing transmission and Distribution Loss
A major initiative for improving energy efficiency
can come from reduction in Transmission and
Distribution (T&D) losses. According to estimates of the
Finance Commission, by the end of 2011-12, the
Aggregate Technical and Commercial (AT&C) losses
were more than Rs. 60,000 crore and may cross Rs. 1,
00,000 crore in the next 5 years. Technical losses are
equivalent to loss of generation. Efforts are being made to
reduce losses through APDRP-II and activities by
National Electricity Fund. Several states are also
undertaking privatization of distribution utilities or giving
these utilities to a franchisee. Privatization has helped in
reducing losses to some extent but it needs more
encouragement and incentives. Measures in this regard,
however, are still quite inadequate and have made a small
impact. This is an area, which is primarily in the domain
of the State Governments. It needs enormous attention
and commitment. Management of energy demand from
this area is weak.
G. R&D in hybrid vehicles
The major consumers of transport fuel are the cars,
trucks and railway engines. Development of energy
efficiency in this sector has so far been left to the market
forces. There have been some R&D initiatives like the use
of hydrogen and electric cars. There is, however, no
specific road map for promoting investments in the
motorized transport sector to reach targeted fuel
efficiency standards. There is a need to develop this.
Unless energy efficiency in this sector, which consumes
about 30% of the total requirement, is improved, it will be
difficult to manage the domestic demand. This must be
supplemented by a strong Public Transport System and
fewer private cars per thousand of population. This is
another area where a strong policy intervention is
required.
H. Social Equality
Energy security has another dimension which is
more in the nature of equity of the governance system.
Today, we have nearly 40% of the population below the
poverty line based on estimates of the World Bank. Large
numbers of them do not have access to minimum energy.
One of the guidelines in this regard has been the
government policy to provide minimum of 30 KWH of
energy to every citizen. In addition, a certain minimum
facility for cooking of 6 kg LPG has also been suggested.
According to the NSSO (National Sample Survey
Organization) (2004-05), only 45% of the population uses
electricity and had access to electricity for lighting
purposes. Since then with the launch of RGGVY (Rajiv
Gandhi Gramin Vidyut Yojna) program, around 80,000
villages have been further electrified. It is estimated that
around 40,000 villages still remain. Further, there are a
large number of habitations which have not been covered.
Even in the villages electrified the number of people
having electric connections is limited. Further, the
network for providing RGGVY connections needs to be
further strengthened so that it can take the load of the
various activities in the village. In a number of cases,
where connections have been given electricity has not
been provided and only the network has been developed.
It is necessary that while the villages get connected,
electricity also reaches all sections of population. It is
estimated that about one crore BPL families have been
provided connections under RGGVY. There are many
more in the waiting. There is also need to provide, in the
meanwhile, non-grid power in forest areas and other
distant areas where grid connectivity is not available. To
develop non-conventional sources of energy, one can
provide solar lanterns or develop decentralized
distribution generation. Biogas and other community
assets could also be developed. The broad approach
should be to cover all the villages with fuel for cooking
and lighting. In addition, one has to plan for periods when
there are shortages. Safeguards for these vulnerable
sections have to be provided.
Energy is critical to economic growth for all
countries. It is more critical to India. The per capita
availability and consumption of energy in the country is
way below the world average. As we grow and become
the world's third largest economy after US and China, our
energy requirements will multiply several folds. Our
domestic resources are, however, limited. Our success in
maximizing these resources and achieving a very high
level of energy efficiency will help us meet our energy
requirements and enable continued economic growth.
IX. RENEWABLE ENRGY
For assessment of renewable energy potentiality, it is
essential to understand the role of private investment,
value of liberalization in the Power Sector and its effects,
policy prescriptions for different scale of operations,
smart and resilient transmission and distribution
infrastructure, cooperation in R&D for current, new and
innovative technologies; grid integration of renewable
energy (RE), political framework and stakeholder
landscape. Rapid deployment of renewable energy and
energy efficiency, and technological diversification of
energy sources, would result in significant energy
security and economic benefits [27]. Renewable energy
replaces conventional fuels in four distinct areas:
electricity generation, hot water/space heating, motor
fuels, and rural (off-grid) energy services. Some countries
have much higher long-term policy targets of up to 100%
renewable. Outside Europe, a diverse group of 20 or more
other countries target renewable energy shares in the
2020–2030 time frame that range from 10% to 50% [28].
In international public opinion surveys there is strong
support for promoting renewable sources such as solar
power and wind power, requiring utilities to use more
renewable energy (even if this increases the cost), and
providing tax incentives to encourage the development
and use of such technologies. There is substantial
optimism that renewable energy investments will pay off
economically in the long term. [29]
For economic as well as environmental reasons,
India needs to shift to non- polluting renewable sources
of energy to meet future demand for electricity.
Renewable energy is the most attractive investment
because it will provide long-term economic growth for
India. Renewable energy also has the advantage of
allowing decentralized distribution of energy –
particularly for meeting rural energy needs, and thereby
empowering people at the grassroots level.
X. POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
SOURCES IN INDIA
India has abundant untapped renewable energy
resource. The country’s large landmass receives one of the
highest levels of solar irradiations in the world. It has an
extensive coastline and high wind velocity in many areas.
This provides ample opportunities for the establishment of
land based renewable energy generation, as well as off
shore wind farms. In addition the country’s numerous
rivers and waterways have strong potential to generate
hydropower. India has significant potential to produce
energy from biomass derived from agriculture and forestry
residues.
A. SOLAR ENERGY
India has lot of potential for renewable energy. Solar
is the prime free source of inexhaustible energy available
to all. India receives the highest global solar radiation on a
horizontal surface. According to solar energy experts, India
has considerable scope for solar energy production. India
receives on a daily average over the year of 520-630 W/m2;
1660-1990 Btu/ft2 and 6.8-8.3 GJ/m2 annually. The desert
areas in India have the solar radiation required for CSP
production. A 60 km x 60 km area can produce 100,000
MW of power. India has a desert area of 208,110 sq.
kilometres in Rajasthan and Gujarat. Even if India uses
only 15,000 sq. kilometres of the desert, it can produce
300,000 MW of power. Even if a tenth of this potential was
utilized, it could mark the end of India’s power problems
by using the country’s deserts and farmland to construct
solar plants.
Renewable energy has the potential to re-energize
India’s economy by creating millions of new jobs, allowing
the country to achieve energy independence, reduce its
trade deficits and propel it forward as a “Green Nation.”
Solar energy is the most cost-effective option for India to
reduce energy poverty without having to extend national
grid services to provide power for individual homes and
buildings. Another opportunity for sparking investment in
solar, is the U.S.-India Energy partnership program called
SERIIUS (the Solar Energy Research Institute for India
and the United States). This collaboration could lay the
foundation for an energy independent future – one in which
the Indian government takes advantage of the vast amounts
of energy available from the Rajasthan Desert sun (instead
of oil from the Arab nations) to power its future energy
needs.
B. ONSHORE WINDS
India has been an early adopter of wind power and
has been active in this sector since the early 90’s. The wind
industry in India has a fairly large number of turbine
manufacturers (with turbines being exported as well),
developers and various service providers. As of 2013,
according to CWET, the country has roughly 20 wind
turbine manufacturers with an availability of roughly 50
turbine models.
With 17353 MW of wind power installed in the country
as on 31st March 2012, it constituted the mainstay of
renewable power in the country, contributing to 70% of the
total RE capacity. The present capacity is 19564 MW (30th
June 2013) [30] most of which is located in the southern
and western high solar resource states of Tamil Nadu,
Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan. Various
studies point out that the actual potential could be
anywhere between 500 -1000 GW which indicates that the
wind resource availability is not a constraint for wind
power development. Availability of land, transmission
infrastructure and reliable integration of variable
generation would be key factors that may limit the uptake
of wind power in the future.
C. OFFSHORE WINDS
Offshore wind power is a potential source of electricity
generation primarily due to better quality wind resources
along with the absence of land constraints. However as of
today, the costs of installation and operation are almost
twice as more than onshore wind power. These costs are
set to decline with technological improvement including
increased hub heights, turbine capacity, CUFs and floating
turbines. [31]
Also we can bring in the new technology which is being
developed in Australia where Dr. Shahriar Hossain and his
team is working at University of Wollongong to develop
the wind turbines that are a significant improvement on
current technology. Right now, wind turbines cost about
$15 million each to construct, and are super-heavy and
tough to ship. They also require a whole lot of maintenance
because they're run using a complex, heavy, and costly
piece of machinery called a gear box.
In their design there is no gearbox which right away
reduces the cost and weight by 40%.They are developing a
magnesium diboride superconducting coil to replace gear
box. This will capture the wind energy and convert it into
electricity without any power loss, and will reduce
manufacturing and maintenance costs by two thirds.
D. CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER ( CSP )
Concentrating Solar Power is a source of utility large
scale electricity generation. Unlike PV, CSP uses only the
Direct Normal Radiation fraction of the solar radiation and
uses solar heat for steam generation and finally electricity
production. This technology has been tried and tested in
many parts of the world but relatively new to India. It is
most widely used in Spain and USA as of now. The total
technical potential of CSP in India (with land use limited
to barren areas) according to one study is 2324 Tw/yr1.
According to another it is much higher at 10,928 Tw/yr. 1.
Like PV, the resource potential is unlikely to be the
limiting factor for CSP, it would more likely be due to
technology and price development and the use of water for
cooling.
E. HYDRO
Small hydro power plants are possibly the first
renewable source for electricity generation in India. India
has a sizeable resource potential, presently estimated to be
roughly 20 GW, most of which is located in the Himalayan
States as river-based projects and in other States on
irrigation canals. Within SHP, there is a further
classification as micro hydro (up to 100 kW); mini hydro
(100 – 2000 kW) and SHP (2-25 MW). The sector is
mainly driven by private sector development. Given that
SHP is one of the lowest cost renewable electricity
generation options it is a thrust area for development in the
country. Introduction of micro/mini hydro systems has
proved a boon to many areas devoid of grid connections
and supply. While SHP is already cost competitive with
conventional power, increased efficiencies and capacity
utilization factors would make it even more viable in the
future. In order to further enhance the total power
generation from SHP’s it is essential to harness all potential
sites. According to the MNRE, the focus of the SHP
programme is to lower the cost of equipment, increase its
reliability and set up projects in areas which give the
maximum advantage in terms of capacity utilisation.
F. TIDAL
Among the various forms of energy contained in the
seas and oceans, dal energy, has been developed on a
commercial scale. India has a long coastline with the
estuaries and gulfs where des are strong enough to move
turbines for electrical power generation. The Gulf of
Cambay and the Gulf of Kutch in Gujarat on the west coast
have the maximum dal range of 11m and 8m with average
dal range of 6.77m and 5.23m respectively. The Ganges
Delta in the Sundarbans is approximately 5m with an
average dal range of 2.97m. The identified economic
power potential is of the order of 8000 MW with about
7000 MW in the Gulf of Cambay, about 1200 MW in the
Gulf of Kachchh in the State of Gujarat and about 100 MW
in the Ganga Delta in the Sundarbans region in the State of
West Bengal.
The Gujarat Government has also proposed
development of a new technology where the kinetic energy
of dal currents has been proposed to be harnessed under the
water and along the flow of water without using the
conventional methods like water wheel or other types of
turbines.
XI. RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPLORATION
There are many strategies for exploration of
renewable energy in India and some of them are as
under:
a) Aggressively expand large-scale deployment of
both centralized and distributed renewable
energy including solar, wind, hydro, biomass,
and geothermal to ease the strain on the present
transmission and distribution system – and reach
more off-grid populations. Facilitate growth in
large-scale deployment by installing 100 million
solar roofs and large utility-scale solar
generation, through both centralized and
distributed energy within the next 20 years.
b) Enact a National Renewable Energy
Standard/Policy of 20 percent by 2020 – to
create demand, new industries and innovation,
and a new wave of green jobs.
c) Develop favourable government policies to ease
the project permitting process, and to provide
start-up capital to promote the exponential
growth of renewable energy. Create and fund a
national smart infrastructure bank for renewable
energy.
d) accelerate local demand for renewable energy by
providing preferential Feed-in-Tariffs (FIT) and
other incentives such as accelerated
depreciation; tax holidays; renewable energy
funds; initiatives for international
partnerships/collaboration incentives for new
technologies; human resources development;
zero import duty on capital equipment and raw
materials; excise duty exemption; and low
interest rate loans.
e) establish R&D facilities within academia,
research institutions, industry, government and
civil society to guide technology development
f) Accelerate the development and implementation
of solar and wind farms; utility-scale solar and
wind generation nationwide.
g) Initiate a move to electrify automotive transportation
or develop electric vehicles and/or plug- in hybrids –
such as the Nissan Leaf or Chevy Volt, etc. If India
made the massive switch from coal, oil, natural gas
and nuclear power plants to renewable energy, it is
possible that 70 percent of India’s electricity and 35
percent of its total energy could be powered by
renewable resources by 2030.
XII. CONCLUSION
Renewable energy systems are well placed to reduce
the risk of energy supply disruptions and the current
reliance by many countries on imported fuels. Renewable
energy sources are widely distributed and, in many
locations, can provide alternative choices for generating
electricity, producing heat and manufacturing transport
fuels. In addition, significant greenhouse gas reductions
and various other co-benefits can be obtained.
The use of renewable energy in itself is not risk free.
Supplies vary due to the natural variable availability of
many forms and the costs can be relatively high compared
with traditional energy supplies. In recent years however
the costs for renewables have trended downwards whilst
the costs for fossil fuels (including a carbon charge) have
increased. Thus renewables have become more
competitive.
XIII. FOREWARD
India has to overcome significant challenges,
internal as well as external, to achieve energy security.
Regulatory uncertainty and opaque natural gas pricing
policies have resulted in vast unexplored basins and
inadequate upstream activities in the country. In addition,
the small pool of skilled manpower and poorly developed
upstream infrastructure is resulting in a significant time
lag between oil and gas discoveries and production. Given
the scarcity of hydrocarbon reserves across the globe
amid the rising demand, India will have to increasingly
compete with other nations to secure energy supplies.
Fossil-based fuels will definitely remain the dominant
source of energy in the near future. Nonetheless, in the
long term, India will have to explore alternative energy
sources to strengthen its energy security.
XIV. REFERENCES
[1] IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2009.
[2] The Energy and Resource Institute, “India's Energy Security: New
opportunities for a sustainable future,” TERI Press, New Delhi,
2009.
[3] B. O. Moe, the Norwegian Model: Evolution, Performance and
Benefits.
[4] Directorate General of Hydrocarbons, India, “Annual Report,”
New Delhi, 2012.
[5] FICCI, “http://www.ficci.com/,” [Online]. Available:
http://www.ficci.com/sector/67/Project_docs/hydroprofile.pdf.
[Accessed 16 October 2014].
[6] The European Wind Energy Association, “World Wind Energy
Report,” Bonn, 2009.
[7] Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, “Renewable Energy
Achievements”.
[8] N. Sethi, India Targets 1,000 MW Solar power in 2013, The Times
of India, 2009.
[9] "Gas - India - Growth in chaos,"Nomura International,11 May
2010 via Thomson Research
[10] “NELP-IX : Global Oil Majors shun India's offer of oil and gas
blocks,” The Economic Times, 29 March
2011, via Factiva
[11] Macquarine Equity Research , via Thomson Research, “India Oil
and Gas” 17 June 2010 , via Thompson Research
[12] Directorate General of Hydrocarbon, “DHG 2010 Annual
Report”.
[13] MOPNG, Government of India, “Basic Statistics on India
Petroleum and Natural Gas 2009-10”.
[14] Ernst & Young, “HR challenges in India oil and Gas sector,” 2010.
[15] The Press Trust of India, "RBI opposes $20bn wealth fund from
forex reserves", 13 October 2011.
[16] China Investment Corporation, Annual report 2010.
[17] BP, “Statistical Review of World Energy,” 2011.
[18] Deutsche Bank, “India Natural Gas Prices,” 20 July
2010, via Thomson Research
[19] Asia Pulse Pty Limited, “India, Qatar disagree on pricing of
LNG,” 31 October 2011,via Factiva
[20] J. P. Morgan, “India Refining & Marketing,” 2011.
[21] Press Information Bureau, Government of India, “Facts Regarding
Under-recoveries,” 4 November 2011.
[22] Financial Chronicle, “Cash crunch may force IOC to close
refineries,” 9 November 2011,via Factiva
[23] BPCL and HPCL, “Unaudited Financial Results for the Half Year
Ended,” 30 September 2011. [24] Financial Express, “Will defer
projects to cut costs: HPCL,” Indian Express Online Media Pvt.
Ltd., 2011.
[24] “Will differ projects to cut costs : HPCL,”Financial Express , 8
November 2011 , via Factiva
[25] IOCL, “IOC plans to get into oil exploration, sets up SPV,” 10
June 2011.
[26] CNBCTV, High LNG cost may keep margins moderate:
Indraprastha Gas, 2011.
[27] S.Yadav , G.Mishra “Renewable Energy Potential in
India”International Journal of Engineering Research and
Technology , vol. 6, pp. 709-716
[28] IEA Renewable Energy Working Party (2002).
[29] “Energy Technology Perspectives” International Energy Agency
(2012)
[30] MNRE 2013-2013 Annual Report
[31] “Draft National Offshore Wind Energy Policy 2013”.

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ST5031_full Length

  • 1. Energy Security in India Vedant Pradip Makwana Applied Petroleum Engineering - Upstream, Dept. of Petroleum and Earth Sciences University of Petroleum and Earth Sciences Dehradun, India vedant.makwana@stu.upes.ac.in Abstract—India, inhabiting 1.2 billion people is facing considerable energy scarcity. With oil and gas prices hiking, India faces a fight to secure future energy needs. Energy security as defined by the Government of India is when the population of the country has access to their daily energy needs irrespective of whether they are able to pay for it. India’s GDP currently stands at a nominal 1.842 trillion USD and is growing rapidly at almost 7% annually. This growth needs to be complemented by a huge increase in the energy sector. Quadrupling the present day energy production by 2030 can help overcome this energy crisis. Moreover we face challenges in all the E&P sectors. Since the introduction of NELP in 1999, 60 deposits have been discovered of which only 2 are in the production phase. This outlines a picture of the poor state of the E&P industry. Even though the unexplored area has gone down from 41% to 12% in the last decade, increase in production is minimal. Development of well- defined guidelines and an investment friendly government is the need of the hour. The taxing and royalty agreements should be clear with no ambiguity. The midstream sector is riddled with problems of its own; India’s pipeline density of 0.003km/sq.km is among the lowest in the world leading to transportation problems and geopolitical issues have stalled pipeline projects from the Middle East. The lack of clarity on gas pricing also makes India an unattractive destination for investment. Since the Fukushima- Diachii reactor meltdown, the demand for gas has increased from countries like Japan and South Korea leading to higher prices. Another step towards energy security is to secure overseas assets but there we face stiff competition from China who overpay for assets, promise development schemes and offer soft loans. The energy needs of this country can be met by developing the renewable and alternative sources of energy serving the vast energy needs of these country. The following research paper discusses the problems faced by Oil and Gas sector in our country and suggests the possible ways by which the conditions can be made better. Also discussed is the potential of the renewable energy in India and its role in making India self-sufficient and energy secure. Securing the energy needs of our country is of paramount importance but the challenge we are facing holds such magnitude that apprehension of failure is unavoidable. Energy security is the key. Keywords—energy scarcity ; NELP ; unexplored area ; investment friendly government ; pipeline density ; transportation problems ; geopolitical issue ; overseas assets ;renewable sources I. INTRODUCTION Energy is the prime mover of a country’s economic growth. Availability of energy with required quality of supply is not only key to sustainable development, but the commercial energy also have a parallel impact and influence on the quality of service in the fields of education, health and, in fact, even food security. In the last decade India has been one of the most developing countries of the world with an average GDP growth of around 6% and around 8% in last couple of years. With the growing GDP of 8%, India is moving parallel to China in terms of development, but the energy consumption is catching up as well. But the country is finding it increasingly difficult to source all the oil, natural gas, and electricity it needs to run its booming factories, fuel its cars, and light up its homes. According to a report by IEA (International Energy Agency), India needs to invest a total of 800 billion dollars in various stages by 2030 to meet its energy demand. India accounts to around 2.4% of the annual world energy production, but on the other hand consumes 3.3% of the annual world energy supply[1] and this imbalance is estimated to surpass Japan and Russia by 2030 placing India into the third position in terms of annual energy consumption. Therefore, after summing up all the energy issues, energy security has been identified as the only tool to overcome the energy concerns. The promise of energy security is alluring. For an import-dependent country like India, energy security is no longer just a desire, but a critical imperative for an economy which is at the threshold of maturity as a growing one. A task seemingly impossible to achieve, yet worth pursuing; a dream realisable only when the country starts producing hydrocarbons in sufficient quantities. Energy security relates to the availability of energy and the impact it has on national security. Cheap energy is a prerequisite for functioning of modern economies and the material well-being of its population. India, one of the world’s fastest growing economies is energy hungry and has a rapidly growing energy demand. Coping with this demand is one of the biggest tasks our country has ever faced.
  • 2. II. BACKGROUND AND HISTORICAL TRENDS Availability of energy and progress have run hand in hand from the discovery of fire to the usage of crude for our daily purposes. The changing lifestyles and modern society have created the need to provide a continuous supply of energy to every individual. India has never been energy excess since 1947, we have always faced energy shortages which have hindered our economic growth and development. It was highlighted by the severe shortage’s we faced in 2012 when the entire north grid collapsed which was followed by the collapse of the eastern grid and around 300 million people were without power for more than 24 hours. India is suffering from huge estimated shortages of nearly 10% in energy terms and almost 17% in peak energy demands as per 2007/08. Energy and peak demand shortages in 2003/04 were 7.1% and 11.2% respectively. [2] These shortages are increasing rapidly due to increasing demand and our inability to have met more than 40%-50% of the targeted capacity addition required in the last three five year plans. This is the situation when almost 50% of the rural population does not even have access to electricity. Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2000 Fig.1. Indian Energy Consumption in Past Decades III. LONG TERM AND SHORT TERM SECURITY Long-term energy security aims to reduce dependence on any one source of imported energy, increase the number of suppliers and focus on exploiting native fossil fuel or renewable energy resources. Energy conservation measures to reduce the overall demand of energy are of great importance to ensure long term security. Other methods involve entering into international agreements to strengthen international energy trading relationships, such as the Energy Charter Treaty in Europe. Long term security measures will help reduce the future cost of importing and exporting fuel into and out of countries without having to worry about harm coming to the goods being transported. Various incidents in the past, viz. the 1973 oil crisis and the emergence of the OPEC cartel have prompted countries to increase their energy security plan. Japan, almost totally dependent on imported oil, steadily introduced the use of natural gas, nuclear power, high- speed mass transit systems, and implemented energy conservation measures. The United Kingdom began exploiting North Sea oil and gas reserves, and became a net exporter of energy into the 2000s. India is carrying out a major hunt for domestic oil to decrease its dependency on OPEC, while other countries like Iceland are changing their outlook by deploying renewable sources of energy. Short term energy security focuses on the ability of the energy system to react promptly to sudden changes in the supply-demand balance. Evaluation of individual sources and fuels: A. Petroleum Crude oil is the most widely used resource in the world. With all the oil wells located around the world, energy security has become a main issue to ensure the safety of the petroleum that is being harvested. Oil fields in the middle-east have become main targets for sabotage because of how heavily countries rely on oil. Many countries hold strategic petroleum reserves as a buffer against the economic and political impacts of an energy crisis. Members of the International Energy Agency hold a minimum of 90 days of their oil imports to use in crisis. The value of such reserves was demonstrated by the relative lack of disruption caused by the 2007 Russia- Belarus energy dispute, when Russia indirectly cut exports to several countries in the European Union. B. Natural Gas Natural gas is a very viable source of energy in the world. Consisting of mostly methane, natural gas is produced using two methods: biogenic and thermo genic. Biogenic gas comes from methanogenic organisms located 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1971 1997 2010 2020 MTOE YEARS India- Energy Consumption Energy Consumption
  • 3. in marshes and landfills, whereas thermogenic gas comes from the anaerobic decay of organic matter deep under the Earth's surface. Russia is the current leading country in production of natural gas. Reliance of energy sector on imported natural gas creates significant short-term vulnerabilities. One of the biggest problems currently facing natural gas providers is the ability to store and transport it. With its low density, it is difficult to build enough pipelines to transport sufficient natural gas to match the growing demand. The pipelines being built are reaching near capacity and even at full capacity, they do not contain the amount of gas needed. IV. LEARNING FROM GLOBAL SCENARIO The New Exploration and Licensing Policy came into existence in 1997 and became effective in February, 1999. Since then nine rounds of bidding under NELP I to NELP IX have been conducted so far and 254 blocks have been awarded for exploration. NELP introduced some attractive reforms in the old and obsolete hydrocarbon policy of India. a) 100% Foreign Direct Investment. b) Scrapping of mandatory NOC participation. c) Exemption from payments of import duty on goods imported for petroleum operations. d) No provision of bonuses. Despite all these features the recent response from operator companies has not met expectations of the policy makers. The probable reasons are: a) Government dictations on pricing of resources. b) Same Production Sharing Contract for onshore and deep offshore bocks irrespective of the different issues and risks for the different type of blocks. c) Scrapping of seven year tax holiday on NELP gas output in the 2008-09 finance bill. d) Restricted shale reservoir access to private explorers and lack of data related to on sale blocks. e) Waiting to bid and win the block of interest as there is no choice of blocks under NELP. Hence there is a need to work upon the current policy framework to make it more appealing to international and private explorers. It’s high time to introspect and compare our policies with the international best like Norway and Columbia who have increased the presence of International Oil Companies (IOCs) through regulatory reforms in hydrocarbon policy framework and frame our policy in such a way that it makes India an attractive destination for foreign investment through IOCs. The following are the key features of the Norway and Columbia’s Oil and Gas Policy: A. Norway A Scandinavian Country in Northern Europe which has become a booming Oil and Gas Industry, but it was not always like that. The country has taken major steps to reach its current state, some of which are as under: a) The Tax regime is clear and Investment friendly Tax Rate = Base Tax(28%)-Uplift(7.5% for 4 Years)[3] b) Clarity in States Roles: There is uniformity in the Oil and Gas Policy made by Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (MPE) which is not contested by the any other Ministry in Norway. c) Predictability , Transparency and Stability in the Energy Policy d) A balance has been maintained between the international and domestic companies participation in block allocation, which has led to transfer of technical know-how to indigenous companies. As a result of the above policies they have a thriving Oil and Gas Sector and currently over 50 MNC’s are operating in Norway. [3] B. Columbia A South American country bordering oil rich Venezuela, the country was producing oil at an optimal rate till 1999 of around 850,000 barrels per day. The production started to decrease in 1999 and hit record lows of around 604,000 barrels in 2008. This prompted the country to bring in the following reforms:- a) The Government’s stake in the NOC was decreased from 100% to 90% to boost public perception. b) A flat 40% discount on royalty was offered. c) New tax policies were framed and were favourable to the IOC’s to obtain investment in the fields. As a result of these policies Columbia became a prime destination for the MNC’s to come and invest. Currently it exports around 70% of its total crude oil production which is more than 1 MMBBL. V. ENERGY DEMAND IN INDIA Today, India is the fifth largest energy consumer in the world. While the world consumes 12000 million tonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE) of energy resources, India consumes 4.4% of the world total (524.2 MTOE). Global consumption of primary commercial energy (coal, oil & natural gas, nuclear and major hydro) has grown at a rate
  • 4. of 2.6% over the last decade. In India, the growth rate of demand is around 6.8%, while the supply is expected to increase at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1%. [4] Of the total primary energy consumption basket, oil and gas constitute 45% share in the total energy basket mix. It is projected that even if we exploit hydropower potential to the fullest, even if there is a 40 fold increase in the contribution of renewable resources and a 20 fold increase in the contribution of nuclear power capacity, by the year 2031-32, fossil fuels will continue to occupy a significant share in the energy basket (74% to 85% of the energy mix).[5] The size of the oil and gas industry in terms of turnover stands at USD 160 bn. The value of crude oil and LNG imports into India in 2010/11 were around US$98 billion. About 78 per cent of India‘s petroleum consumption is met from imports (mostly of crude oil), while about 25% of natural gas (including LNG) consumption comes from imports. [5] It is estimated that in the coming years, the import dependency for crude oil alone would reach above 90% level. VI. ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF ENERGY Renewable energy is defined as energy that comes from resources which are naturally replenished on a human timescale such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves and geothermal heat. The environmental benefits of renewable energy technologies are widely recognized, but the contribution that they can make to energy security is less well known. Renewable technologies can enhance energy security in electricity generation, heat supply, and transportation. The deployment of renewable technologies increases the diversity of electricity sources and, through local generation, contributes to the flexibility of the system and its resistance to central shocks. For those countries where growing dependence on imported gas is a significant energy security issue, renewable technologies can provide alternative sources of electric power as well as displacing electricity demand through direct heat production. Renewable biofuels for transport represent a key source of diversification from petroleum products. As the resources that have been so crucial to survival in the world to this day start declining in numbers, countries will begin to realize that the need for renewable fuel sources will be as vital as ever. The world will see a rise in the production of new types of energy, including solar, geothermal, hydro-electric, biofuel and wind power. Renewable energy in India comes under the purview of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. India was the first country in the world to set up a ministry of nonconventional energy resources in the early 1980s. India's cumulative grid interactive or grid tied renewable energy capacity (excluding large hydro) has reached 29.9 GW, of which 68.9% comes from wind, while solar PV contributed nearly 4.59% of the renewable energy installed capacity in India. Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Govt. of India. Fig.2.Sources of Renewable Energy in India. A. Wind Power India has the fifth largest installed wind power capacity in the world.[6] As of December 2013 the installed capacity of wind power in India was 20149.50 MW, mainly spread across Tamil Nadu (7162.18 MW), Maharashtra (3021.85 MW), Gujarat (3174.58 MW)[7], Karnataka (2135.50 MW), Rajasthan (2684.65 MW), Madhya Pradesh(386.00 MW), Andhra Pradesh (447.65 MW), Kerala (35.10 MW), West Bengal (1.10 MW), other states (3.20 MW). It is estimated that 6,000 MW of additional wind power capacity will be installed in India by 2018. B. Solar Power India has high solar insolation, an ideal combination for using solar power in India. Various solar power generation programs have been launched, viz. The Indian Solar Loan Program (2003) and The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (2009) with plans to generate 1,000 MW of power by 2013 and up to 20,000 MW grid-based solar power, 2,000 MW of off-grid solar power and cover 20 million sq. meters with collectors by the end of the final phase of the mission in 2020. [8] The potential for generation of energy from renewable sources in India is huge and with guided compliance of the government and the people this energy can be made available commercially. A boost in the renewable energy sector will help take the pressure off the conventional departments and help solidify the drowning Wind Power Solar Power Small Hydro Power Biomass Power Bagasse Cogeneration Waste to Power
  • 5. industry. Renewable energy holds the key to a sustainable crisis free future. VII. KEY ISSUES LIMITING GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF INDIA’S OIL AND GAS SECTOR The Indian oil and gas industry has to deal with myriad issues. While some of the challenges such as regulatory uncertainty, subsidized petroleum prices and regulated gas prices are specific to the domestic oil and gas industry, players still need to address rampant global issues such as manpower deficit and the impact of inadequate and ageing infrastructure. Some of the important issues faced across the value chain are discussed below. The oil and gas sector is divided in 3 main sectors which are Upstream, Midstream and Downstream. The issues each of the sectors are facing is given below A. UPSTREAM Upstream Sector is challenged by following problems a) Inadequate Upstream Infrastructure The upstream oil and gas infrastructure in India is inadequate due to underinvestment in the past. As a result, the production of oil and gas remained rise in demand. The sector has limited participation from foreign and private players as is visible from their declining participation in New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) rounds. For instance, a total of 21 foreign companies participated in NELP-VII (2008); ten foreign companies took part in NELP-VIII (2009), while only eight companies took part in NELP-IX (2011) [10]. Further, companies have spent just US$7.2 billion, out of their investment commitment of US$20.7 billion until NELP VII [11]. Although the unexplored sedimentary area in the country decreased from 41% in FY99 to 12% in FY10, the level of exploration will have to be further raised to increase hydrocarbon production. India is finding it difficult to commercialize its oil and gas discoveries. Since the introduction of NELP in 1999, there have been 60 discoveries, out of which 51 are gas discoveries. However, out of these 51 discoveries, only 2 have entered production phase. [12] b) Shortage of Oil Field Services[13] The rising demand for oil and gas has resulted in an increase in exploration activities worldwide, leading to the shortage of oilfield services, particularly deep-water rigs. In line with the global trend, India is facing a shortage of oilfield services, especially drilling equipment. Companies are increasingly falling short of their exploration targets with a high incidence of cost overruns and delays in work commitments. The issue is accentuated by the lack of domestic expertise in the manufacture of rigs, particularly deep-water rigs, and the time lag in the delivery of new rigs. Further, most of the rig assets held by Indian companies are aging. Over the next few years , theses old rigs are either have to be retired or substantially upgraded to remain operational, which is likely to further increase the shortage. In addition to rigs, there is a scarcity of other upstream-related infrastructure such as process platforms, pipelines, collecting stations and other surface facilities to transport oil and gas from wells to delivery points. c) Acute Shortage of Skilled Human Resource[13] India is facing a shortage of skilled manpower due to attrition, retirement and the inability to attract the young workforce. The industry is unable to attract talent from universities due to lack of awareness of the available careen opportunities within the industry and difficult working conditions, especially the upstream sector .Other industries provide attractive career opportunities. Moreover, domestic national Oil companies are losing their employees to the private sector due to significant differences in remuneration levels. Around 11% of the current workforce may retire over the next few years, resulting in significant loss of experienced personnel. Over the next few years, the shortage of talent is likely to increase, which may impact operations across the value chain. There will be a requirement of around 25,000 additional professionals over the next few years due to attrition, retirement and increasing activities in the industry. The upstream segment is likely to have a highest shortfall of skilled manpower of around 7,600 employees. [14] d) Increased Competition to procure Oil Equity abroad.[15] The acquisition of oil assets abroad is emerging as a key challenge for India as the country is facing stiff competition, especially from China, in its quest to secure oil resources. The aggressive acquisitions of Chinese NOCs are often backed by state financing from China Investment Corp., the country’s sovereign wealth fund that has a corpus of around US$375 billion [16] .In addition, Chinese companies are
  • 6. supported by diplomatic initiatives of the Chinese Government, offer to invest in social infrastructure projects and the provision of soft loans to countries where they are seeking access to oil and gas reserves. The GoI is encouraging Indian companies to expand their overseas operations. However, India’s overseas investments in oil and gas lag behind that of Chinese companies. While Indian companies view overseas projects as a commercial activity and mostly acquire assets based on returns, Chinese national oil companies are often ready to overpay for assets to strengthen energy security, overlooking project economics. Though Indian companies currently have assets in high risk countries such as Sudan and Syria, they follow a strategy is to purchase additional assets in relatively safe countries. In contrast, Chinese companies are not averse to invest in unstable regions. B. Midstream The midstream sector in India faces challenges of its own, some being a) Underdeveloped Natural Gas Infrastructure The natural gas infrastructure in the country needs an overhaul. The infrastructure is currently underdeveloped due to limited availability of natural gas and inadequate transmission and distribution pipelines. India’s gas pipeline density (pipelines spread per sq.km) is one of the lowest in the world. As a result, the share of natural gas in the overall energy mix is only 10% as against the global average of 24%. [17] TABLE I. Comparison of Pipeline Density -2010 Source: CIA the World Fact Book and Ernst & Young analysis b) Regulated Natural Gas prices India currently has numerous pricing mechanisms, which depend on the supplier, customer and region. Companies need government approval for gas price and the pricing formula, despite being given the autonomy to charge market determined prices under the provisions of the NELP. The price of natural gas needs to be high enough to incentivize producers to invest in exploration and production, while at the same time be affordable for majority of gas consumers. The following are some of the current gas prices prevailing in the country. [18] TABLE II. Unregulated Gas Prices-2010 *Administered gas price Source: Deutsche Bank c) Difficulty in sourcing long term gas supplies from abroad The import of gas in the form of LNG and the transmission of gas through transnational pipelines are two options available to meet the rising domestic demand for natural gas. Indian companies are constructing new LNG terminals and expanding the capacities of existing terminals. However, the country is facing difficulties in searching long-term LNG supplies due to competition from countries such as China, Japan and South Korea. Qatar-The World’s largest LNG supplier – recently agreed to fulfil all the long-term LNG requirements of GAIL India and Petronet. However, discussions were suspended due to pricing issues. [19] In the past, India proposed to lay transnational pipelines and was in talks with countries such as Iran, Pakistan (Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline), Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- Pakistan India pipeline) and Myanmar (Myanmar–India pipeline). However, differences over gas pricing and geopolitical issues have created hurdles in the construction of these pipelines. The challenge for India will be Country Estimated pipeline density (Km/sq. km.) India 0.003 The UK 0.05 The US 0.05 Pakistan 0.01 China 0.004 Source of gas Wellhead price (US/mmbtu) Fields-APM* 4.2 KG D6 4.2 LNG (Contracted) – Dahej terminal 7.5 to 8 LNG (Spot) 14 to 16 Panna Mukta 5.57 to 5.73
  • 7. to arrange long-term supplies at reasonable prices as anchor gas customers i.e., fertilizers and power industries may not be able to pay market-determined prices. C. Downstream There are several other problems which are being faced by Downstream Sector in India a) Subsidized Petroleum prices impacting operations of NOCs.[20] The GOI deregulated the Prices of petrol; however the state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) continue to sell petroleum products such as kerosene, Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) at subsidized rates, which are much lower than the cost of production. This is resulting in significant under-recoveries for OMCs. Under- recoveries are expected to increase further from INR782 billion in FY13 to nearly INR 1,320 billion in FY12 [21]. In FY13, around 52.5% of under-recoveries were compensated by the GoI in the form of oil bonds and cash, 38.7% by upstream companies in the form of discounts, while the remaining 8.8% have to be borne by OMCs. The rising under-recoveries and the current subsidy sharing mechanism followed by the Government have consequences of the financial health of OMCs and Energy Security of the country. OMCs are facing severe liquidity issues, which, if not addressed at the earliest, may result in disruption in sourcing imported crude, leading to lower refinery utilization and possible shutdown of refineries. [22] The option of borrowing funds is also limited as OMCs are already carrying considerable debt on their balance sheets. For instance, as of 30 September 2013, Hindustan Petroleum had a debt equity (DE) ratio of 5.1:1, while Bharat Petroleum had DE ratio of 3:1 [23].The shortage of cash has impacted working capital requirements and may put further strain on companies to finance maintenance work and smaller projects. [24] State-owned OMCs plan to increase their upstream activities to de-risk their core downstream businesses. For instance, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is planning to either setup an upstream subsidiary or create a separate division within the company that will entirely focus on exploration and production activities. [25] However, huge under recoveries have reduced cash reserves, which may prevent OMCs from investing substantial amounts to scale up their upstream business. b) Challenges in developing CGD networks Insufficient gas supplies, poorly developed pipeline infrastructure and uncertainty over regulatory policies are some of the main factors deterring the growth of the city gas distribution (CGD) networks in India. Although India has a CGD network in 41 cities, the network is not widespread across majority of the cities. Only New Delhi, Mumbai and some parts of Gujarat have a prominent gas distribution network. According to India’s Gas allocation policy, the power and fertilizer industries get a preferential allotment of domestic gas supplies, which leaves very little domestic gas for CGD companies. To satisfy demand, existing CGD companies may have to source increasing quantities of expensive RLNG, which may increase the prices of compressed natural gas (CNG) and piped natural gas (PNG) as well as impact margins. It is likely that new CGD networks will have to source R-LNG, which may affect the returns of proposed CGD projects. [26] The shortage of experienced manpower is yet another issue that needs to be overcome. With the aggressive growth plans of many companies, it is estimated that the industry will require around 4,500 people over the next few years.[14] Some of the other challenges that may hinder the growth of the nascent CGD industry in India include the lack of safety standards and network of reliable equipment suppliers. c) Tax / Regulatory Issues i. Refining Sunset clause for tax holiday for mineral oil refineries: Tax holiday under section 80IB of the Act will not be available to mineral Oil refineries that commence refining after 31 March 2012. ii. City Gas Distribution Absence of a clear regulatory framework for developing CGD networks: The absence of clear regulatory provisions has hampered the development of the domestic CGD industry. Licenses for CGD projects under round 2 and round 3 of CGD bidding are yet to be awarded. Moreover, the uncertainty over the bidding criteria recently led to the cancellation of the fourth round of CGD bidding. Eligibility criteria for
  • 8. CGD bidding lack provision for commitment and are very flexible. This allows inexperienced players to bid, who may find it difficult to develop and/or operate the network. Moreover, in previous rounds, bids have been invited for areas, which are too small or underdeveloped to sustain the CGD business profitably and hence, attract only a few bids or no bids at all. VIII. POLICIES FOR MEETING INDIA’S ENERGY SECURITY For mitigating the afore discussed challenges there are some proposed policies to be enacted upon which would help India to become energy secure. A. Acquiring Assets The most important policy required for assured availability of energy, is investing in energy assets abroad and developing domestic infrastructure for receiving LNG. Further, a well-structured arrangement should exist in the oil sector in India. Imports of 7.5 million tonnes of LNG on a long-term supply basis for 25 years have been planned by Petro net LNG at Dahej under an agreement with Qatar. Another 1.5 million tonnes has been tied up with Exxon Mobil for 20 years from Gorgan LNG project in Australia. As part of the investment policy, a joint venture has been set up in Oman for producing fertilizers for 1.9 million tonnes per year. It will be useful to set up similar projects in Qatar, Australia, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Mozambique or other countries, if gas is available. These initiatives need further expansion. The OVL oil equity so far accounts for only 9% of India's current oil import requirements. If these assets were to meet only 10% of the requirements in 2031-32, the investments will have to be multiplied six times, if the success rate continues to be as at present. There is another dimension to these investments. The price of energy is rising as the two economies of India and China are developing rapidly at 9%-10% per annum. The cost of acquisition, therefore, has to take into account the price of energy over the next two decades. For example, cost of oil extraction may be $ 20 per barrel but assets where such acquisitions can be done at $ 40 per barrel also need to be looked at. These decisions have to be taken in the context of expected energy prices. While this takes us in the realm of speculation, the assessment is that of acquisitions which are profitable at this juncture at about $ 50 are likely to remain so. The average cost of oil for a country can be reduced by having profitable energy assets. The cost of energy security, therefore, can pay for itself in direct price terms, apart from its overall benefits to the economy in helping economic activities. Acquisition of energy has to be seen in a wider perspective of price scenarios in the next two decades rather than the conservative $ 18-20 per barrel price assumptions. B. Diversifying Sources To strengthen energy security of imports, the second policy initiative required is diversification of energy import sources. In respect of oil, for example, we can tap markets in Venezuela, Columbia, Brazil, Africa, countries of the Middle East and South America. Since the types of oil available from these may not suit our refineries, we will have to develop adequate capabilities to process various types of oil. This will enable flexibility in acquisition. Similarly, sourcing of natural gas and LNG needs to be from a host of sources. This may include Qatar, Australia, Middle East, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Some of the pipelines from Iran and Turkmenistan may pass via Afghanistan and Pakistan. We will have to find innovative ways to meet our security concerns. These could be in the form of energy pipelines being owned by large international conglomerates backed by major world economies or funded by international financial organizations. In some of the other oil-rich countries, like Iran, USA has imposed sanctions. We will have to negotiate with them to work out appropriate arrangements. A spread of supply resource to different regions will help strengthen the energy security structure further. C. Improving Storage facilities The third policy initiative is the development of crude oil/gas storage capacities for meeting exigencies. OECD countries have developed oil storages of 90 days of import requirements. In India, we are developing 5 million tonnes of oil storage, which is equivalent to 15 days of current import requirements. This is being developed in the form of storage tanks Visakhapatnam (1 MT), Mangalore (1.5 MT) and Padur (2.5MT). In addition, oil companies have, as inventory, crude oil products of around 85 days of import requirements. This generally includes only 15 days of crude reserves. Similarly, GAIL and other gas companies have gas in their pipelines. These inventories kept by the oil and gas companies cannot be treated as strategic reserves but as operating stocks. The carrying cost of proposed reserve is high and may go up if oil prices increase. The cost of inventory itself may be around $3 billion with carrying costs being around 1,500-2,000 crore per annum. In case of 90 days of the inventory, the carrying cost may be still higher (10,000-12,000 crore). Further, the cost of construction will have to be separately accounted for. There is clearly a need to think of innovative methods to develop these storages. It is possible to discuss with oil companies for creation of an inventory within the country in collaboration with international players. This could be available to us when we require it in the event of a supply
  • 9. disruption. Some of this storage could be outside the country too. An important issue in this context is the funding of these inventories. Since this is a part of overall government policy, the cost of it will have to be borne by the government. To raise funds for the carrying costs and the management of these inventories, it may be necessary to impose a cess of 1.5%-2% on crude oil imported by us. An alternative could be a slightly lower cess be imposed on the downstream products. It appears more appropriate to tax the crude oil itself, as it will be easier to collect. Also given the different nature of products and nature of government control on pricing of various oil products, the possibility of cess and its realization in the overall costs may raise problems. Cess of this magnitude should be adequate to meet the inventory costs of the oil for 90 days. D. Maximizing Domestic Reserves In the oil sector, India has adopted an aggressive policy to expand domestic production by developing a transparent regime for award of oil blocks. So far, 234 blocks have been awarded after 8 rounds of NELP. Exploration of oil and gas are long term investments. So far there have been major finds by Reliance, ONGC, Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation and Cairn Energy. The availability of oil, of nearly 6 million tonnes per annum, which is 20% of the country's domestic production, is by Cairn Energy. In the 1960s, exploration was done by ONGC and it was found that there was no possibility of oil in these blocks in Rajasthan. Subsequently; the block was with the international company Shell. They could not find any oil in the area. For nearly 30 years, this block continued to be unexplored, the general impression was that Rajasthan does not have oil. The block was taken up by a small group from Scotland. A geologist, after considering the data, felt that it may be possible to find oil in the area. Subsequently, in a period of 4 – 5 years, the comparatively new player developed a number of oil fields. E. Domestic demand and management a) Energy Intensity The primary concern of management of domestic demand is to develop an energy efficient economy so that the energy intensity of the GDP goes down. In the context of climate change, so far this has assumed major importance. Most countries of the world are undertaking measures to achieve this objective. According to Integrated Energy Policy, India's energy intensity was 0.16 kg of oil equivalent (kgoe) per dollar of GDP expressed in purchasing power parity terms. This is significantly lower than 0.23 kgoe of China, 0.22 kgoe of US and the world average of 0.21 kgoe. However, Japan had 0.15 kgoe and European countries, like Germany and the UK are better off. Several measures have been taken recently to promote energy efficiency. b) Empowering energy efficiency The next category of initiatives as proposed includes programs for energy efficiency in domestic lighting, municipal, agricultural and commercial building sectors. It is also proposed to make energy efficiency standards mandatory for equipment and appliances used in domestic sector, hotel equipment, office equipment, transport equipment, industrial products etc. It also mandates technology improvement program, energy conservation building code and disseminating measures for generally creating a climate of energy efficiency. This is clearly a step in the right direction. One of the major components of the program is introduction of super critical boilers in power plants and promoting energy efficiency in existing plants. The average energy efficiency of coal in the Indian power plants is around 30%-33%. With the introduction of super critical technology, it is possible to increase this to 40% or more. Around 80% of the coal is consumed in the power sector. If energy efficiency in this sector can be improved substantially, the requirement of coal imports can be reduced drastically, thereby reducing domestic demand. Similarly, IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle) technology and promoting energy efficiency in existing plants, many of which are quite old, is important. Introduction of advanced super critical boilers, which have energy efficiency higher than above, is another important step. F. Reducing transmission and Distribution Loss A major initiative for improving energy efficiency can come from reduction in Transmission and Distribution (T&D) losses. According to estimates of the Finance Commission, by the end of 2011-12, the Aggregate Technical and Commercial (AT&C) losses were more than Rs. 60,000 crore and may cross Rs. 1, 00,000 crore in the next 5 years. Technical losses are equivalent to loss of generation. Efforts are being made to reduce losses through APDRP-II and activities by National Electricity Fund. Several states are also undertaking privatization of distribution utilities or giving these utilities to a franchisee. Privatization has helped in reducing losses to some extent but it needs more
  • 10. encouragement and incentives. Measures in this regard, however, are still quite inadequate and have made a small impact. This is an area, which is primarily in the domain of the State Governments. It needs enormous attention and commitment. Management of energy demand from this area is weak. G. R&D in hybrid vehicles The major consumers of transport fuel are the cars, trucks and railway engines. Development of energy efficiency in this sector has so far been left to the market forces. There have been some R&D initiatives like the use of hydrogen and electric cars. There is, however, no specific road map for promoting investments in the motorized transport sector to reach targeted fuel efficiency standards. There is a need to develop this. Unless energy efficiency in this sector, which consumes about 30% of the total requirement, is improved, it will be difficult to manage the domestic demand. This must be supplemented by a strong Public Transport System and fewer private cars per thousand of population. This is another area where a strong policy intervention is required. H. Social Equality Energy security has another dimension which is more in the nature of equity of the governance system. Today, we have nearly 40% of the population below the poverty line based on estimates of the World Bank. Large numbers of them do not have access to minimum energy. One of the guidelines in this regard has been the government policy to provide minimum of 30 KWH of energy to every citizen. In addition, a certain minimum facility for cooking of 6 kg LPG has also been suggested. According to the NSSO (National Sample Survey Organization) (2004-05), only 45% of the population uses electricity and had access to electricity for lighting purposes. Since then with the launch of RGGVY (Rajiv Gandhi Gramin Vidyut Yojna) program, around 80,000 villages have been further electrified. It is estimated that around 40,000 villages still remain. Further, there are a large number of habitations which have not been covered. Even in the villages electrified the number of people having electric connections is limited. Further, the network for providing RGGVY connections needs to be further strengthened so that it can take the load of the various activities in the village. In a number of cases, where connections have been given electricity has not been provided and only the network has been developed. It is necessary that while the villages get connected, electricity also reaches all sections of population. It is estimated that about one crore BPL families have been provided connections under RGGVY. There are many more in the waiting. There is also need to provide, in the meanwhile, non-grid power in forest areas and other distant areas where grid connectivity is not available. To develop non-conventional sources of energy, one can provide solar lanterns or develop decentralized distribution generation. Biogas and other community assets could also be developed. The broad approach should be to cover all the villages with fuel for cooking and lighting. In addition, one has to plan for periods when there are shortages. Safeguards for these vulnerable sections have to be provided. Energy is critical to economic growth for all countries. It is more critical to India. The per capita availability and consumption of energy in the country is way below the world average. As we grow and become the world's third largest economy after US and China, our energy requirements will multiply several folds. Our domestic resources are, however, limited. Our success in maximizing these resources and achieving a very high level of energy efficiency will help us meet our energy requirements and enable continued economic growth. IX. RENEWABLE ENRGY For assessment of renewable energy potentiality, it is essential to understand the role of private investment, value of liberalization in the Power Sector and its effects, policy prescriptions for different scale of operations, smart and resilient transmission and distribution infrastructure, cooperation in R&D for current, new and innovative technologies; grid integration of renewable energy (RE), political framework and stakeholder landscape. Rapid deployment of renewable energy and energy efficiency, and technological diversification of energy sources, would result in significant energy security and economic benefits [27]. Renewable energy replaces conventional fuels in four distinct areas: electricity generation, hot water/space heating, motor fuels, and rural (off-grid) energy services. Some countries have much higher long-term policy targets of up to 100% renewable. Outside Europe, a diverse group of 20 or more other countries target renewable energy shares in the 2020–2030 time frame that range from 10% to 50% [28]. In international public opinion surveys there is strong support for promoting renewable sources such as solar power and wind power, requiring utilities to use more renewable energy (even if this increases the cost), and providing tax incentives to encourage the development and use of such technologies. There is substantial optimism that renewable energy investments will pay off economically in the long term. [29] For economic as well as environmental reasons, India needs to shift to non- polluting renewable sources of energy to meet future demand for electricity. Renewable energy is the most attractive investment because it will provide long-term economic growth for India. Renewable energy also has the advantage of allowing decentralized distribution of energy –
  • 11. particularly for meeting rural energy needs, and thereby empowering people at the grassroots level. X. POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN INDIA India has abundant untapped renewable energy resource. The country’s large landmass receives one of the highest levels of solar irradiations in the world. It has an extensive coastline and high wind velocity in many areas. This provides ample opportunities for the establishment of land based renewable energy generation, as well as off shore wind farms. In addition the country’s numerous rivers and waterways have strong potential to generate hydropower. India has significant potential to produce energy from biomass derived from agriculture and forestry residues. A. SOLAR ENERGY India has lot of potential for renewable energy. Solar is the prime free source of inexhaustible energy available to all. India receives the highest global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. According to solar energy experts, India has considerable scope for solar energy production. India receives on a daily average over the year of 520-630 W/m2; 1660-1990 Btu/ft2 and 6.8-8.3 GJ/m2 annually. The desert areas in India have the solar radiation required for CSP production. A 60 km x 60 km area can produce 100,000 MW of power. India has a desert area of 208,110 sq. kilometres in Rajasthan and Gujarat. Even if India uses only 15,000 sq. kilometres of the desert, it can produce 300,000 MW of power. Even if a tenth of this potential was utilized, it could mark the end of India’s power problems by using the country’s deserts and farmland to construct solar plants. Renewable energy has the potential to re-energize India’s economy by creating millions of new jobs, allowing the country to achieve energy independence, reduce its trade deficits and propel it forward as a “Green Nation.” Solar energy is the most cost-effective option for India to reduce energy poverty without having to extend national grid services to provide power for individual homes and buildings. Another opportunity for sparking investment in solar, is the U.S.-India Energy partnership program called SERIIUS (the Solar Energy Research Institute for India and the United States). This collaboration could lay the foundation for an energy independent future – one in which the Indian government takes advantage of the vast amounts of energy available from the Rajasthan Desert sun (instead of oil from the Arab nations) to power its future energy needs. B. ONSHORE WINDS India has been an early adopter of wind power and has been active in this sector since the early 90’s. The wind industry in India has a fairly large number of turbine manufacturers (with turbines being exported as well), developers and various service providers. As of 2013, according to CWET, the country has roughly 20 wind turbine manufacturers with an availability of roughly 50 turbine models. With 17353 MW of wind power installed in the country as on 31st March 2012, it constituted the mainstay of renewable power in the country, contributing to 70% of the total RE capacity. The present capacity is 19564 MW (30th June 2013) [30] most of which is located in the southern and western high solar resource states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan. Various studies point out that the actual potential could be anywhere between 500 -1000 GW which indicates that the wind resource availability is not a constraint for wind power development. Availability of land, transmission infrastructure and reliable integration of variable generation would be key factors that may limit the uptake of wind power in the future. C. OFFSHORE WINDS Offshore wind power is a potential source of electricity generation primarily due to better quality wind resources along with the absence of land constraints. However as of today, the costs of installation and operation are almost twice as more than onshore wind power. These costs are set to decline with technological improvement including increased hub heights, turbine capacity, CUFs and floating turbines. [31] Also we can bring in the new technology which is being developed in Australia where Dr. Shahriar Hossain and his team is working at University of Wollongong to develop the wind turbines that are a significant improvement on current technology. Right now, wind turbines cost about $15 million each to construct, and are super-heavy and tough to ship. They also require a whole lot of maintenance because they're run using a complex, heavy, and costly piece of machinery called a gear box. In their design there is no gearbox which right away reduces the cost and weight by 40%.They are developing a magnesium diboride superconducting coil to replace gear box. This will capture the wind energy and convert it into electricity without any power loss, and will reduce manufacturing and maintenance costs by two thirds. D. CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER ( CSP ) Concentrating Solar Power is a source of utility large scale electricity generation. Unlike PV, CSP uses only the Direct Normal Radiation fraction of the solar radiation and uses solar heat for steam generation and finally electricity production. This technology has been tried and tested in many parts of the world but relatively new to India. It is
  • 12. most widely used in Spain and USA as of now. The total technical potential of CSP in India (with land use limited to barren areas) according to one study is 2324 Tw/yr1. According to another it is much higher at 10,928 Tw/yr. 1. Like PV, the resource potential is unlikely to be the limiting factor for CSP, it would more likely be due to technology and price development and the use of water for cooling. E. HYDRO Small hydro power plants are possibly the first renewable source for electricity generation in India. India has a sizeable resource potential, presently estimated to be roughly 20 GW, most of which is located in the Himalayan States as river-based projects and in other States on irrigation canals. Within SHP, there is a further classification as micro hydro (up to 100 kW); mini hydro (100 – 2000 kW) and SHP (2-25 MW). The sector is mainly driven by private sector development. Given that SHP is one of the lowest cost renewable electricity generation options it is a thrust area for development in the country. Introduction of micro/mini hydro systems has proved a boon to many areas devoid of grid connections and supply. While SHP is already cost competitive with conventional power, increased efficiencies and capacity utilization factors would make it even more viable in the future. In order to further enhance the total power generation from SHP’s it is essential to harness all potential sites. According to the MNRE, the focus of the SHP programme is to lower the cost of equipment, increase its reliability and set up projects in areas which give the maximum advantage in terms of capacity utilisation. F. TIDAL Among the various forms of energy contained in the seas and oceans, dal energy, has been developed on a commercial scale. India has a long coastline with the estuaries and gulfs where des are strong enough to move turbines for electrical power generation. The Gulf of Cambay and the Gulf of Kutch in Gujarat on the west coast have the maximum dal range of 11m and 8m with average dal range of 6.77m and 5.23m respectively. The Ganges Delta in the Sundarbans is approximately 5m with an average dal range of 2.97m. The identified economic power potential is of the order of 8000 MW with about 7000 MW in the Gulf of Cambay, about 1200 MW in the Gulf of Kachchh in the State of Gujarat and about 100 MW in the Ganga Delta in the Sundarbans region in the State of West Bengal. The Gujarat Government has also proposed development of a new technology where the kinetic energy of dal currents has been proposed to be harnessed under the water and along the flow of water without using the conventional methods like water wheel or other types of turbines. XI. RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPLORATION There are many strategies for exploration of renewable energy in India and some of them are as under: a) Aggressively expand large-scale deployment of both centralized and distributed renewable energy including solar, wind, hydro, biomass, and geothermal to ease the strain on the present transmission and distribution system – and reach more off-grid populations. Facilitate growth in large-scale deployment by installing 100 million solar roofs and large utility-scale solar generation, through both centralized and distributed energy within the next 20 years. b) Enact a National Renewable Energy Standard/Policy of 20 percent by 2020 – to create demand, new industries and innovation, and a new wave of green jobs. c) Develop favourable government policies to ease the project permitting process, and to provide start-up capital to promote the exponential growth of renewable energy. Create and fund a national smart infrastructure bank for renewable energy. d) accelerate local demand for renewable energy by providing preferential Feed-in-Tariffs (FIT) and other incentives such as accelerated depreciation; tax holidays; renewable energy funds; initiatives for international partnerships/collaboration incentives for new technologies; human resources development; zero import duty on capital equipment and raw materials; excise duty exemption; and low interest rate loans. e) establish R&D facilities within academia, research institutions, industry, government and civil society to guide technology development f) Accelerate the development and implementation of solar and wind farms; utility-scale solar and wind generation nationwide. g) Initiate a move to electrify automotive transportation or develop electric vehicles and/or plug- in hybrids – such as the Nissan Leaf or Chevy Volt, etc. If India made the massive switch from coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power plants to renewable energy, it is possible that 70 percent of India’s electricity and 35 percent of its total energy could be powered by renewable resources by 2030.
  • 13. XII. CONCLUSION Renewable energy systems are well placed to reduce the risk of energy supply disruptions and the current reliance by many countries on imported fuels. Renewable energy sources are widely distributed and, in many locations, can provide alternative choices for generating electricity, producing heat and manufacturing transport fuels. In addition, significant greenhouse gas reductions and various other co-benefits can be obtained. The use of renewable energy in itself is not risk free. Supplies vary due to the natural variable availability of many forms and the costs can be relatively high compared with traditional energy supplies. In recent years however the costs for renewables have trended downwards whilst the costs for fossil fuels (including a carbon charge) have increased. Thus renewables have become more competitive. XIII. FOREWARD India has to overcome significant challenges, internal as well as external, to achieve energy security. Regulatory uncertainty and opaque natural gas pricing policies have resulted in vast unexplored basins and inadequate upstream activities in the country. In addition, the small pool of skilled manpower and poorly developed upstream infrastructure is resulting in a significant time lag between oil and gas discoveries and production. Given the scarcity of hydrocarbon reserves across the globe amid the rising demand, India will have to increasingly compete with other nations to secure energy supplies. Fossil-based fuels will definitely remain the dominant source of energy in the near future. Nonetheless, in the long term, India will have to explore alternative energy sources to strengthen its energy security. XIV. REFERENCES [1] IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2009. [2] The Energy and Resource Institute, “India's Energy Security: New opportunities for a sustainable future,” TERI Press, New Delhi, 2009. [3] B. O. Moe, the Norwegian Model: Evolution, Performance and Benefits. [4] Directorate General of Hydrocarbons, India, “Annual Report,” New Delhi, 2012. [5] FICCI, “http://www.ficci.com/,” [Online]. Available: http://www.ficci.com/sector/67/Project_docs/hydroprofile.pdf. [Accessed 16 October 2014]. [6] The European Wind Energy Association, “World Wind Energy Report,” Bonn, 2009. [7] Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, “Renewable Energy Achievements”. [8] N. Sethi, India Targets 1,000 MW Solar power in 2013, The Times of India, 2009. [9] "Gas - India - Growth in chaos,"Nomura International,11 May 2010 via Thomson Research [10] “NELP-IX : Global Oil Majors shun India's offer of oil and gas blocks,” The Economic Times, 29 March 2011, via Factiva [11] Macquarine Equity Research , via Thomson Research, “India Oil and Gas” 17 June 2010 , via Thompson Research [12] Directorate General of Hydrocarbon, “DHG 2010 Annual Report”. [13] MOPNG, Government of India, “Basic Statistics on India Petroleum and Natural Gas 2009-10”. [14] Ernst & Young, “HR challenges in India oil and Gas sector,” 2010. [15] The Press Trust of India, "RBI opposes $20bn wealth fund from forex reserves", 13 October 2011. [16] China Investment Corporation, Annual report 2010. [17] BP, “Statistical Review of World Energy,” 2011. [18] Deutsche Bank, “India Natural Gas Prices,” 20 July 2010, via Thomson Research [19] Asia Pulse Pty Limited, “India, Qatar disagree on pricing of LNG,” 31 October 2011,via Factiva [20] J. P. Morgan, “India Refining & Marketing,” 2011. [21] Press Information Bureau, Government of India, “Facts Regarding Under-recoveries,” 4 November 2011. [22] Financial Chronicle, “Cash crunch may force IOC to close refineries,” 9 November 2011,via Factiva [23] BPCL and HPCL, “Unaudited Financial Results for the Half Year Ended,” 30 September 2011. [24] Financial Express, “Will defer projects to cut costs: HPCL,” Indian Express Online Media Pvt. Ltd., 2011. [24] “Will differ projects to cut costs : HPCL,”Financial Express , 8 November 2011 , via Factiva [25] IOCL, “IOC plans to get into oil exploration, sets up SPV,” 10 June 2011. [26] CNBCTV, High LNG cost may keep margins moderate: Indraprastha Gas, 2011. [27] S.Yadav , G.Mishra “Renewable Energy Potential in India”International Journal of Engineering Research and Technology , vol. 6, pp. 709-716 [28] IEA Renewable Energy Working Party (2002). [29] “Energy Technology Perspectives” International Energy Agency (2012) [30] MNRE 2013-2013 Annual Report [31] “Draft National Offshore Wind Energy Policy 2013”.