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By: Valerie Kong
28 March 2013
Burning embers in Mali: Why a peaceful state is unlikely to be kept
While the fight against Islamist militants continues in the vast deserts of northern Mali, French
troops will begin their withdrawal next month and give way to a UN peacekeeping mission made
up of African forces.
Since jihadist groups took hold of the region after a military coup in the country last year, efforts
to secure the capital and regain the north have been a top priority for the international community.
As the military intervention drags on, some observers of the West African nation say prospects
for an end to the conflict hinge on many underlying issues that have yet to be addressed.
For key stakeholders in the country, dealing with the grievances of the original Tuareg rebellion
that spurred the overthrow of the government includes challenges brought on by an interim
government, fractious opposition and a weak national economy.
As foreign troops contend with insurgents for major cities in the north, plans for establishing a
political process and peace agreement with all parties may prove to be the real battle in
rebuilding Mali.
Choosing which layer of the conflict to tackle is just one of the problems, says Peter Dörrie, a
journalist in Burkina Faso and editor-in-chief of AfrikaEcho.
“The international community is definitely more interested in this terrorist dimension than
internal Malian affairs,” Dörrie says.
France has deployed around 4,000 troops to the region since early January, in response to the
advances of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb on the southern capital of Bamako.
A number of splinter groups such as the Ansar Dine, Movement for Unity and Jihad in West
Africa (MUJAO), and Islamic Movement for Azawad have formed, which want to impose Shari
‘a law in the country.
Since an alliance between the Islamist militants and Tuareg rebels broke down, the French
government and African forces have turned their focus to pushing out the terrorist groups from
the northern region.
“There are not a lot of good examples of the ability of non-indigenous forces to keep large
sparsely populated territories terrorist-free,” says David Petrasek, an associate professor at the

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University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs. “It hasn’t worked in
Afghanistan, and despite what the Americans say, it didn’t work in Iraq.”
Petrasek says that support for Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups by populations in the north
have been a way of ramping up pressure on the Malian government to respond to their
grievances.
“I’m certain that if the population of the north remains grieved and discontent, that will allow
Islamic armed groups who are not indigenous to the area to survive and thrive,” says Petrasek.
Earlier this month, the interim government announced the creation of a Dialogue and
Reconciliation Commission to help bring the country together and promote discussion among the
different armed groups and civil society organizations.
Political and economic marginalization of the ethnic Tuaregs from the centralized government in
the south has been a longstanding problem, with a lack of resources and discrimination against
the minority population.
Along with the MNLA, the main Tuareg rebel group, members of the military junta that ousted
the previous political powers and the transitional government all have interests in the future of
the country.
“To get these groups to the table you would have to find out what exactly they want and how to
give it to them in a manner that’s acceptable for the other groups,” says Dörrie. “This is really
the hard part, that there are so many interests at the moment, so many different groups that have
interests that don’t align with one another.”
Chester Crocker, the James R. Schlesinger professor of strategic studies at Georgetown
University, says part of the mediation is figuring out which factions could be part of a solution
and which ones have no intention of participating in the political process.
Regarded as a model of democracy in Africa, Mali experienced a number of rebellions in the
1960s, 1970s and 1990s, with subsequent peace agreements put in place.
“There needs to be some international involvement in working out a new compact with the
existing groups,” says Crocker. “The track record has not been good, and there have been lots of
agreements and they tend to get broken.”
Dustin Dehez, a senior analyst in Peace and Security at the Global Governance Institute, says the
problems in Mali don’t stem from the failure of peace talks but the failure to implement these
processes once they’re successful.
“There are people in the Tuareg movement who want to talk to the government, and they want to
make sure when they talk to the government that every step the government agrees is going to be
implemented in the end,” says Dehez.

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With current interim president Dioncounda Traore at the helm since April 2012, France and Mali
are pushing for elections by the end of July of this year.
Andrew Grant, an associate professor of political studies at Queen’s University, says while
delays are expected, having a democratically-elected government would separate ties between
the military and civilian powers.
“Because the interim government was put in place by the military, there’s suspicion that the
Malian military may not have the country’s best interests in mind,” says Grant. “I think that if
you had elections, it would be easier for Canada to provide more of a role or contribution to
whatever future mission occurs, whether it’s a UN mission or what have you.”
While the costs of financing and organizing a national election pose a challenge, ensuring the
results are accepted will take more work by leaders well in advance.
“I definitely think that some kind of action needs to be taken now, because of course it’s
important to restore legitimacy to the government, but if you want to do this by elections, then
these won’t happen if you don’t start the negotiations before then,” Dörrie says.
The government should start reaching out now, says Dörrie, to make sure that key stakeholders
agree to elections and are prepared to go through this process in a non-violent way.
In the past, ethnic Tuaregs have been previously involved in the political process and represented
at the national level, with two ministers in the country’s current government. The Malian
government and the international community have yet to set guidelines for a potential election.
“I’m not quite sure how elections will alter the Tuareg involvement in the political process,” says
Dehez. “So it’s not so much a question of co-opting them into that system, but the role they have
in that system themselves.”
Grant says reforms to the country’s constitution may be a step forward as part of a wider peace
agreement, by putting more checks and balances on the military and granting the Tuareg greater
autonomy in the region.
“So on both those fronts, would help respond to the Tuareg’s concerns but also the military’s
concerns,” says Grant.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recently announced recommendations for more than 11,000
peacekeepers for the UN mission to the country, which the Security Council is set to vote on in
mid-April. The report also suggested a parallel force for counterterrorism and major fighting
operations.
“I don’t think the situation in Mali is going to be resolved this easily,” says Dehez. “On the
other hand, it was simmering for a long time, it was simmering since the 1990s, and bringing it
back to that status would already be a success.”