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usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196
Today’s Speakers
Frank Holmes
U.S. Global Investors
CEO and CIO
Aram Shishmanian
World Gold Council
Chief Executive Officer
Lisa Aston
U.S. Global Investors
Marketing Leader
Moderator
2
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Be Sure to Participate in Our Polls
You Could Be a Winner!
24 Carat Gold Plated Horseshoe
3
Three opportunities to win:
We’ll select one person at
random from each poll
question.
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Poll Question #1
How is gold included in your portfolio?
4
5
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196
Gold Just Had Its Best Quarter in 30 Years
6
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
We’ll Address These Questions in
Our Webcast Today
• Why does gold have timeless appeal to investors?
• What are the “Fear Trade” and the “Love Trade” and how
do they drive gold demand?
• How do historical and seasonal patterns affect gold?
• Is the gold rally we have seen this year sustainable?
• How can gold and gold equities be an integral part of your
portfolio?
7
8
9
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196 10
Driver: The Fear Trade
President Barack ObamaJanet Yellen, Chairman
of the Federal Reserve
Gold’s Fear Trade is driven by investor concerns over government policy.
11
Governments
worldwide are
looking for
solutions to
monetary and
fiscal policies.
February 20 – 26, 2016
Nominal Interest Rates
Real Interest Rates
12
Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate – Inflation
Historically, when inflation has been greater than
nominal rates, real interest rates became negative,
and gold rose in value.
Inflation
Inflation Fears
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Gold Rebound Has Been Linked to Fall
in Interest Rates
13
Real Rates = Fed Funds Rate – CPI Inflation
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
The Inverse Relation Between Real Interest
Rates and the Price of Gold
14
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
The Great Tectonic Shift of Physical Gold
From West to East
15
China imports massive amounts of gold, much of it coming through Switzerland, as its Central Bank increases
its gold holdings to boost the strength of the country’s currency. China is today the world’s largest consumer of
gold, as the yellow metal carriers a special cultural significance among Chinese investors and consumers.
16
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196
Mainland China Official Gold Bullion Imports
17
A price maker is an entity that holds a large amount of power over the price of the goods
it buys or sells. A price taker is an entity that must accept prevailing prices in a market,
lacking market share to influence price on its own.
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Central Bank Gold Buying: Deficit
to Surplus
18
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June 2016 | 16-196
Driver: The Love Trade
19
20
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June 2016 | 16-196
Gold Historically Follows a Seasonal Pattern
21
The seasonal pattern shows historical tendency of when the highest and lowest prices occurred, based on
analysis of daily prices collected over the last 5, 15 and 30 years by Moore Research Center, Inc.
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196
Seasonal Patterns of Gold’s Love Trade
22
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2016 Chinese New Year: Year of the Monkey
23
24
Why We Believe the Gold
Rally is Sustainable
See Slides 24-39
25
26
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June 2016 | 16-196 27
Emerging World Holds 49% of the
Global Population, Just 24% of GDP
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196 28
China Surpasses U.S. — Compare GDP in
Absolute Terms vs. GDP on Purchasing
Power Parity Valuation
29
30Universal Appeal of Gold
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196
Gold vs. Gold Miners
31
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196
Near-Record Gold ETF Inflows
in First Quarter
32
The price of gold is subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted
international monetary and political policies.
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Hefty ETF Inflows
First Quarter Physical Gold Investment
33
Tonnes Q1’15 Q1’16
Year-on-
year-change
Quarter-on-
quarter
change
World Total 252.2 253.9 1% -7%
India 40.9 28.8 -31% -53%
China 59.1 61.9 5% 23%
Source: World Gold Council. First Quarter 2016
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Physically-Backed Gold ETF AuM
by Region in Tonnes
34
Q1’15 Q2’15 Q3’15 Q4’15 Q1’16
Q1’16 vs
Q1’15
Tonnage
Change
Q1’16 vs
Q1’15 %
Change
North
America
1,068.6 1,044.8 1,012.3 955.9 1,186.9 118.3 11
Europe 612.0 618.6 583.9 570.2 690.5 78.5 13
Asia 43.3 41.0 42.9 46.0 54.1 10.8 25
Other 40.6 37.0 39.1 38.4 42.8 2.2 5
Global
Total
1,764.5 1,741.5 1,678.1 1,610.6 1,974.3 209.7 12
Source: World Gold Council. First Quarter 2016
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196
Top 10 Physically-Backed
Gold ETFs by AuM in Tonnes
35
Fund Country
Holdings as of
End of March
Q1’16 vs Q1’15
% Change
1 SPDR Gold Shares United States 819.3 11
2 iShares Gold Trust United States 186.3 13
3 ZKB Gold ETF Switzerland 137.7 -1
4 ETFS Physical Gold United Kingdom 113.9 2
5 Gold Bullion Securities United Kingdom 92.3 8
6 Source Physical Gold United Kingdom 73.7 51
7 Xetra-Gold Germany 70.7 28
8 Sprott Physical Gold Trust United States 54.8 39
9 Central Fund of Canada Ltd Canada 52.7 0
10 Julius Baer Physical Gold Fund Switzerland 44.2 -10
Global Total 1,974.3 12
Source: World Gold Council. First Quarter 2016
See Disclosures Pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund.
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Indian Gold Bar and
Coin Investment
36
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Gold Jump and Market Disruption
Push India into Steep Discount
37
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June 2016 | 16-196
Around a Third of Global Government
Debt Has Negative Yield
38
Source: World Gold Council
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196
Top 10 Reported Official Gold
Holdings
39
As of March 2016. Source: World Gold Council. First Quarter 2016
Country Tonnes % of Reserves
1 United States 8,133.5 75%
2 Germany 3,381.0 69%
3 International Monetary Fund 2,814.0 -
4 Italy 2,451.8 68%
5 France 2,435.7 63%
6 China 1,797.5 2%
7 Russia 1,460.4 15%
8 Switzerland 1,040.4 7%
9 Japan 765.2 2%
10 Netherlands 612.5 61%
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
The Wealth Effect
The wealth effect is the premise that when the value of
stock portfolios rises due to escalating stock or gold prices,
investors feel more comfortable and
secure about their wealth, causing
them to spend more.
Source: Investopedia
40
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June 2016 | 16-196
Wealth Effect: Chinese and Indian Markets
Have Lagged the U.S.
41
The gold market can be volatile, and subject to certain risks.
Please see page 77 for additional information.
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196
Gold’s Love Trade Has Declined
42
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June 2016 | 16-196
Sharp Slowdown in New
Mine Start-Ups
43
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June 2016 | 16-196
Increased Hedging Coupled with a Slight
Uptick in Mine Production Outweighed a
Marginal Decline in Recycling
44
Tonnes Q1’15 Q1’16
Year-on-year-
change
Quarter-on-
quarter change
Total Supply 1,081.0 1,134.9 5% 4%
Total Mine
Supply
717.7 774.0 8% -10%
Recycled Gold 363.2 360.9 -1% 53%
Source: World Gold Council. First Quarter 2016
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Gold’s Rise in the First Quarter Viewed by Some
Mining Companies as an Opportunity to Hedge
for Tactical Purposes
45
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196
7 Reasons We Believe Gold is Rising
• Unprecedented nominal negative interest rate
• Real negative interest rates
• Investors losing faith in central bank policy
• Central banks are now net buyers of gold
• Weakening U.S. dollar
• Greater scarcity: Gold production is rolling over
• China consuming huge amounts
46
Source: U.S. Global Investors, Paradigm Capital
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Will Gold Follow the Same Pattern
This Year As 2002-2003?
47
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Up-Cycles in Gold Price
48
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: Paradigm Capital Research
Strength
of Up-
Cycle
Super Ordinary Ordinary Weak Super ???
Timing of
Down Cycle
Sept. 1976 –
Nov 1980
June 1982 –
Feb 1983
Mar 1985 –
Mar 1988
Mar 1993 –
Feb 1996
Aug 2001-
Sept 2011
Dec 2015 - Present
Increase from
Trough to Peak
666% 70% 71% 27% 606% 22%
Main Drivers
for up-Cycles
Inflation Spiral
Interest Rates
Drop Sharply
Weaker US$,
Declining Real
Interest Rates
Less Central
Banks Sales, Less
Hedging, but
increasing Real
Interest Rates
Commodities
Super Cycle,
Weakling US$,
No Producer
Hedging
Negative Interest
Rates, Economic
Uncertainty, Central
Bank Buying,
Scarcity?
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Down-Cycles in Gold Price
That Followed
49
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: Paradigm Capital Research
Strength of
Down-Cycle
Super Average Moderate Moderate Average
Timing of Down
Cycle
Dec 1980 –
May 1982
Mar 1983 –
Feb 1985
Apr 1988 –
Apr 1992
Mar 1996 –
July 2001
Sep 2011 –
Dec 2015
Decrease from
Peak to Trough
-65% -43% -33% -35% -44%
Main Drivers for
Down-Cycle
Rising Interest
Rates
High Real
Interest Rates
Central Bank Sales,
Hedging, Growing
Mine Supply
High Real Interest Rates,
Producer Hedging, Central
Bank Sales
Strong US$,
Commodities
Collapse
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Amplitude of Up-Cycles in Gold Price
50
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: Paradigm Capital Research
Sep 1976 –
Nov 1980
Jun 1982 –
Feb 1983
Mar 1985 –
Mar 1988
Mar 1993 –
Feb 1996
Aug 2001 –
Sep 2011
Dec 2015 -
Present
Low Price (At
Close of Day)
$111 $297 $288 $328 $268 $1,050
High Price (At
Close of Day)
$850 $504 $492 $415 $1,892 $1,285
Average Price $292 $416 $392 $381 $701
Increase % from
Low to High
666% 70% 71% 27% 606% 22%
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Amplitude of Down-Cycles in
Gold Price
51
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: Paradigm Capital Research
Dec 1980 –
May 1982
Mar 1983 –
Feb 1985
Apr 1988 –
Apr 1992
Mar 1996 –
Jul 2001
Recent
Trough
Sep 2011 –
Dec 2015
Average
Decline %
of 4 Past
Downturns
Average
Decline %
of 3
Biggest
Downturns
Low Price (At
Close of Day)
$297 $288 $328 $268 $1,050
High Price at
Start of
Downturn
$850 $504 $492 $415 $1,892
Decline from
High to low
-65% -43% -33% -35% -44% -44% -37%
Implied Bottom Based on Previous Cycles $1,056 $1,188
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196
Cycle Duration in Gold Price
(Years, Starting with Up-Cycle)
52
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: Paradigm Capital Research
Sep 1976 –
May 1982
Jun 1982 –
Feb 1985
Mar 1985 –
Apr 1992
Mar 1993 –
Jul 2001
Aug 2001 –
Dec 2015
Duration of
4 Past
Cycles
Duration of
3 Major
Cycles
Up-Cycle Years
(Trough to Peak)
4.2 0.7 3.1 3.7 10.1 2.9 3.6
Down-Cycles
(Subsequent
Peak to Trough)
1.8 2.1 5 5.5 4.3 3.6 4.1
Total Cycle
Years
5.9 2.8 8.1 9.2 14.4
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Poll Question #2
What do you think the price of
gold will be by year end?
53
54
55
*Three Hedge Fund Managers’ Thoughts on Gold
*
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Managing Expectation — Cycles
DAY MONTH
ANNUAL
SEASONAL
PRESIDENTIAL
4-YEAR
LIFE CYCLE
OF MINE
8-YEAR
56
The Periodic Table of Commodity ReturnsThe Periodic Table of Commodity Returns
57
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Each Asset Class Has Its
Own DNA Volatility
58
Daily Rolling 1
Year
Gold Bullion ±1% ±20%
NYSE Arca Exchange Gold BUGS Index ±3% ±37%
S&P 500 Index (SPX) ±1% ±18%
Euro ±1% ±10%
Canadian Dollar ±1% ±10%
U.S. Dollar Index ±1% ±9%
Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Global Investors
Standard deviation based on 10-year daily data as of 3/31/2016
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Gold’s Heartbeat: Gold’s Recent
Correction Has Taken It Back to the Mean
59
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June 2016 | 16-196
Value Drivers for Superior Performance
60
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June 2016 | 16-196
We Believe Royalty Companies Have
a Superior Business Model
61
Royalty companies
serve as specialized
financiers that help fund
miners’ exploration and
production projects. In
return, they receive
either royalties on
whatever the mine
produces or a “stream,”
which is a commitment
to an agreed-upon
number of ounces of
gold or other precious
metal per year.
See Disclosures pages
for any holdings in the
Gold and Precious
Metals Fund or World
Precious Minerals Fund.
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
We Believe Royalty Companies Have
a Superior Business Model
62
See Disclosures pages for any
holdings in the Gold and
Precious Metals Fund or World
Precious Minerals Fund.
63
Source: Dundee Capital Markets, U.S. Global Investors
Unlike royalty companies, producer companies operate mines.
See Disclosures pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund.
Royalty averages include Silver Wheaton, Royal Gold, and Franco-Nevada.
Producer averages include Barrick Gold, Goldcorp, Kinross Gold, Agnico Eagles Mines, Eldorado Gold, Randgold Resources
and Yamana Gold.
64
See Disclosures pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund.
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Top 10 Performing Gold Stocks Year-to-Date
65
Source: Bloomberg
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
See Disclosures Pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund.
Company Return YTD as of 6/5/2016
Golden Star Resources Ltd. (GSS) 252.31%
Kinross (KGC) 170.88%
Yamana Gold (AUY) 164.40%
Barrick (ABX) 153.32%
Buenaventura (BVN) 149.42%
Alamos Gold Inc. 121.33%
Newmont (NEM) 94.63%
Agnico Eagle (AEM) 90.13%
New Gold (NGD) 75.43%
Royal Gold (RGLD) 71.73%
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196
Gold Priced in Various World Currencies
66
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
U.S. Global Investors Gold Funds (USERX &
UNWPX) Are Outperforming Their Benchmarks
67
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
4 Stars Overall
68
Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX)
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196 69
Recognized by Lipper for Investment
Leadership Results in Performance
• 4 of the U.S. Global Investors Funds received Lipper performance awards from
2005 to 2008.
• 6 of the U.S. Global Investors Funds received certificates from 2000 to 2007
During the years mentioned, there were 13 U.S. Global Investors Funds, while currently the fund
family consists of 9 funds. See Disclosures pages for additional information.
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Poll Question #3
Do you plan on adding to your gold
allocation in the next 12 months?
70
71
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Sharing Gold Insights with CNBC
and Bloomberg Television
72
Are you tuning in?
Don’t miss Frank Holmes’ weekly gold commentary
on Kitco News with Daniela Cambone!
73
74
75
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Frank Holmes’ Upcoming Events in 2016
76
Mines & Money Toronto
September 26Oxford Club’s Private Wealth Seminar
Stowe, VT | July 18 - 19
Mines & Money Australia
November 8-10
Mining & Investment Latin America 2016
Lima, Peru | October 24 - 25
usfunds.com
usfunds.com
June 2016 | 16-196
Disclosures
Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this
and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by
calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Foreside Fund
Services, LLC, Distributor. U.S. Global Investors is the investment adviser.
Gold, precious metals, and precious minerals funds may be susceptible to adverse economic, political or regulatory
developments due to concentrating in a single theme. The prices of gold, precious metals, and precious minerals are
subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international
monetary and political policies. We suggest investing no more than 5% to 10% of your portfolio in these sectors.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be
appropriate to every investor.
Morningstar Ratings are based on risk-adjusted return.The Morningstar Rating for a fund is derived from a weighted-
average of the performance figures associated with its three-, five- and ten-year (if applicable) Morningstar Rating metrics.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. For each fund with at least a three-year history, Morningstar
calculates a Morningstar Rating based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a
fund’s monthly performance (including the effects of sales charges, loads, and redemption fees), placing more emphasis
on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. The top 10% of funds in each category receive 5 stars, the
next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars and the bottom 10% receive 1
star. (Each share class is counted as a fraction of one fund within this scale and rated separately, which may cause slight
variations in the distribution percentages.)
77
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196
Disclosures
Lipper Fund Awards are earned for a fund’s consistent performance over one or more time periods, based on Lipper’s
Consistent Return score. Consistent Return is a quantitative metric that incorporates two characteristics: risk-adjusted
return, and the strength of the fund's performance trend. The top-scoring Consistent Return fund within each classification
receives the awards. Lipper's Performance Achievement Certificates are awarded to funds with returns that topped their
Lipper category over one or more time periods. Lipper top rankings are achieved based on funds with returns that topped
their Lipper category over one or more time periods. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Although Lipper makes reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data contained herein, the accuracy
is not guaranteed by Lipper. Users acknowledge that they have not relied upon any warranty, condition, guarantee, or
representation made by Lipper. Any use of the data for analyzing, managing, or trading financial instruments is at the
user's own risk. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities.
The FTSE Gold Mines Index Series encompasses all gold mining companies that have a sustainable and attributable gold
production of at least 300,000 ounces a year, and that derive 75% or more of their revenue from mined gold.
The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded
companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The index benchmark value was 500.0 at the close of
trading on December 20, 2002.
The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS (Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks) Index (HUI) is a modified equal dollar weighted index of
companies involved in gold mining. The HUI Index was designed to provide significant exposure to near term movements
in gold prices by including companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years.
78
usfunds.com
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June 2016 | 16-196
Disclosures
The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S.
companies.
The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar.
Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the
higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility.
Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-
end. Holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) and World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) as a
percentage of net assets as of 3/31/2016:
Agnico Eagle (USERX 2.13%); Alamos Gold Inc. (UNWPX 0.02%); Barrick (USERX 1.60%); Buenaventura 0.00%;
CenterraGold (USERX 1.09%); Central Fund of Canada Ltd 0.00%; China Gold 0.00%; Eldorado Gold 0.00%; ETFS
Physical Gold 0.00%; First Trust ISE Chindia Index Fund 0.00%; Franco Nevada (USERX 2.53%, UNWPX 1.13%); Gold
Bullion Securities 0.00%; Goldcorp (USERX 5.13%, UNWPX 1.27%); Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USERX 0.56%);
iShares Gold Trust 0.00%; Julius Baer Physical Gold Fund 0.00%; Kinross 0.00%; New Gold (UNWPX 0.02%); Newmont
0.00%; Primero 0.00%; Royal Gold Inc. (USERX 1.21%); Silver Wheaton 0.00%; Source Physical Gold 0.00%; SPDR Gold
Trust (GLD) 0.00%; Sprott Physical Gold Trust 0.00%; VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) 0.00%; Xetra-Gold 0.00%;
Yamana Gold (USERX 1.13%, UNWPX 0.05%); ZKB Gold ETF 0.00%
79
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June 2016 | 16-196
Total Annualized Returns as of 6/30/2016
Expense ratios as stated in the most recent prospectus. The expense cap is a voluntary limit on total fund operating
expenses (exclusive of any acquired fund fees and expenses, performance fees, extraordinary expenses, taxes,
brokerage commissions and interest) that U.S. Global Investors, Inc. can modify or terminate at any time, which may
lower a fund’s yield or return. Performance data quoted above is historical. Past performance is no guarantee of future
results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. For a portion of periods, the fund had expense
limitations, without which returns would have been lower. Current performance may be higher or lower than the
performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares,
when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance does not include the effect of any
direct fees described in the fund’s prospectus (e.g., short-term trading fees of 0.05%) which, if applicable, would lower
your total returns. Performance quoted for periods of one year or less is cumulative and not annualized. Obtain
performance data current to the most recent month-end at www.usfunds.com or 1-800-US-FUNDS.
80
One-Year Five-Year Ten-Year
Gross Expense
Ratio
Expense
Cap
Gold and Precious Metals
Fund (USERX)
67.82% -8.04% -0.36% 2.20% 1.90%
World Precious Minerals
Fund (UNWPX)
87.51% -11.85% -2.90% 2.01% 1.90%
FTSE Gold Mines Index 69.90% -11.04% -1.72% N/A N/A
NYSE Arca Gold Miners
Index
58.34% -11.48% -2.09% N/A N/A

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All Eyes on Gold: What's Attracting Investors to the Yellow Metal

  • 1. Approved for one hour of Continuing Education credit through the CFP board.
  • 2. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Today’s Speakers Frank Holmes U.S. Global Investors CEO and CIO Aram Shishmanian World Gold Council Chief Executive Officer Lisa Aston U.S. Global Investors Marketing Leader Moderator 2
  • 3. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Be Sure to Participate in Our Polls You Could Be a Winner! 24 Carat Gold Plated Horseshoe 3 Three opportunities to win: We’ll select one person at random from each poll question.
  • 4. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Poll Question #1 How is gold included in your portfolio? 4
  • 5. 5
  • 6. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Gold Just Had Its Best Quarter in 30 Years 6
  • 7. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 We’ll Address These Questions in Our Webcast Today • Why does gold have timeless appeal to investors? • What are the “Fear Trade” and the “Love Trade” and how do they drive gold demand? • How do historical and seasonal patterns affect gold? • Is the gold rally we have seen this year sustainable? • How can gold and gold equities be an integral part of your portfolio? 7
  • 8. 8
  • 9. 9
  • 10. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 10 Driver: The Fear Trade President Barack ObamaJanet Yellen, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Gold’s Fear Trade is driven by investor concerns over government policy.
  • 11. 11 Governments worldwide are looking for solutions to monetary and fiscal policies. February 20 – 26, 2016
  • 12. Nominal Interest Rates Real Interest Rates 12 Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate – Inflation Historically, when inflation has been greater than nominal rates, real interest rates became negative, and gold rose in value. Inflation Inflation Fears
  • 13. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Gold Rebound Has Been Linked to Fall in Interest Rates 13 Real Rates = Fed Funds Rate – CPI Inflation
  • 14. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 The Inverse Relation Between Real Interest Rates and the Price of Gold 14
  • 15. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 The Great Tectonic Shift of Physical Gold From West to East 15 China imports massive amounts of gold, much of it coming through Switzerland, as its Central Bank increases its gold holdings to boost the strength of the country’s currency. China is today the world’s largest consumer of gold, as the yellow metal carriers a special cultural significance among Chinese investors and consumers.
  • 16. 16
  • 17. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Mainland China Official Gold Bullion Imports 17 A price maker is an entity that holds a large amount of power over the price of the goods it buys or sells. A price taker is an entity that must accept prevailing prices in a market, lacking market share to influence price on its own.
  • 18. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Central Bank Gold Buying: Deficit to Surplus 18
  • 19. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Driver: The Love Trade 19
  • 20. 20
  • 21. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Gold Historically Follows a Seasonal Pattern 21 The seasonal pattern shows historical tendency of when the highest and lowest prices occurred, based on analysis of daily prices collected over the last 5, 15 and 30 years by Moore Research Center, Inc.
  • 22. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Seasonal Patterns of Gold’s Love Trade 22
  • 23. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 2016 Chinese New Year: Year of the Monkey 23
  • 24. 24 Why We Believe the Gold Rally is Sustainable See Slides 24-39
  • 25. 25
  • 26. 26
  • 27. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 27 Emerging World Holds 49% of the Global Population, Just 24% of GDP Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
  • 28. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 28 China Surpasses U.S. — Compare GDP in Absolute Terms vs. GDP on Purchasing Power Parity Valuation
  • 29. 29
  • 31. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Gold vs. Gold Miners 31
  • 32. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Near-Record Gold ETF Inflows in First Quarter 32 The price of gold is subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies.
  • 33. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Hefty ETF Inflows First Quarter Physical Gold Investment 33 Tonnes Q1’15 Q1’16 Year-on- year-change Quarter-on- quarter change World Total 252.2 253.9 1% -7% India 40.9 28.8 -31% -53% China 59.1 61.9 5% 23% Source: World Gold Council. First Quarter 2016
  • 34. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Physically-Backed Gold ETF AuM by Region in Tonnes 34 Q1’15 Q2’15 Q3’15 Q4’15 Q1’16 Q1’16 vs Q1’15 Tonnage Change Q1’16 vs Q1’15 % Change North America 1,068.6 1,044.8 1,012.3 955.9 1,186.9 118.3 11 Europe 612.0 618.6 583.9 570.2 690.5 78.5 13 Asia 43.3 41.0 42.9 46.0 54.1 10.8 25 Other 40.6 37.0 39.1 38.4 42.8 2.2 5 Global Total 1,764.5 1,741.5 1,678.1 1,610.6 1,974.3 209.7 12 Source: World Gold Council. First Quarter 2016
  • 35. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Top 10 Physically-Backed Gold ETFs by AuM in Tonnes 35 Fund Country Holdings as of End of March Q1’16 vs Q1’15 % Change 1 SPDR Gold Shares United States 819.3 11 2 iShares Gold Trust United States 186.3 13 3 ZKB Gold ETF Switzerland 137.7 -1 4 ETFS Physical Gold United Kingdom 113.9 2 5 Gold Bullion Securities United Kingdom 92.3 8 6 Source Physical Gold United Kingdom 73.7 51 7 Xetra-Gold Germany 70.7 28 8 Sprott Physical Gold Trust United States 54.8 39 9 Central Fund of Canada Ltd Canada 52.7 0 10 Julius Baer Physical Gold Fund Switzerland 44.2 -10 Global Total 1,974.3 12 Source: World Gold Council. First Quarter 2016 See Disclosures Pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund.
  • 36. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Indian Gold Bar and Coin Investment 36
  • 37. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Gold Jump and Market Disruption Push India into Steep Discount 37
  • 38. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Around a Third of Global Government Debt Has Negative Yield 38 Source: World Gold Council
  • 39. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Top 10 Reported Official Gold Holdings 39 As of March 2016. Source: World Gold Council. First Quarter 2016 Country Tonnes % of Reserves 1 United States 8,133.5 75% 2 Germany 3,381.0 69% 3 International Monetary Fund 2,814.0 - 4 Italy 2,451.8 68% 5 France 2,435.7 63% 6 China 1,797.5 2% 7 Russia 1,460.4 15% 8 Switzerland 1,040.4 7% 9 Japan 765.2 2% 10 Netherlands 612.5 61%
  • 40. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 The Wealth Effect The wealth effect is the premise that when the value of stock portfolios rises due to escalating stock or gold prices, investors feel more comfortable and secure about their wealth, causing them to spend more. Source: Investopedia 40
  • 41. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Wealth Effect: Chinese and Indian Markets Have Lagged the U.S. 41 The gold market can be volatile, and subject to certain risks. Please see page 77 for additional information.
  • 42. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Gold’s Love Trade Has Declined 42
  • 43. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Sharp Slowdown in New Mine Start-Ups 43
  • 44. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Increased Hedging Coupled with a Slight Uptick in Mine Production Outweighed a Marginal Decline in Recycling 44 Tonnes Q1’15 Q1’16 Year-on-year- change Quarter-on- quarter change Total Supply 1,081.0 1,134.9 5% 4% Total Mine Supply 717.7 774.0 8% -10% Recycled Gold 363.2 360.9 -1% 53% Source: World Gold Council. First Quarter 2016
  • 45. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Gold’s Rise in the First Quarter Viewed by Some Mining Companies as an Opportunity to Hedge for Tactical Purposes 45
  • 46. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 7 Reasons We Believe Gold is Rising • Unprecedented nominal negative interest rate • Real negative interest rates • Investors losing faith in central bank policy • Central banks are now net buyers of gold • Weakening U.S. dollar • Greater scarcity: Gold production is rolling over • China consuming huge amounts 46 Source: U.S. Global Investors, Paradigm Capital
  • 47. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Will Gold Follow the Same Pattern This Year As 2002-2003? 47 Past performance does not guarantee future results.
  • 48. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Up-Cycles in Gold Price 48 Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: Paradigm Capital Research Strength of Up- Cycle Super Ordinary Ordinary Weak Super ??? Timing of Down Cycle Sept. 1976 – Nov 1980 June 1982 – Feb 1983 Mar 1985 – Mar 1988 Mar 1993 – Feb 1996 Aug 2001- Sept 2011 Dec 2015 - Present Increase from Trough to Peak 666% 70% 71% 27% 606% 22% Main Drivers for up-Cycles Inflation Spiral Interest Rates Drop Sharply Weaker US$, Declining Real Interest Rates Less Central Banks Sales, Less Hedging, but increasing Real Interest Rates Commodities Super Cycle, Weakling US$, No Producer Hedging Negative Interest Rates, Economic Uncertainty, Central Bank Buying, Scarcity?
  • 49. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Down-Cycles in Gold Price That Followed 49 Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: Paradigm Capital Research Strength of Down-Cycle Super Average Moderate Moderate Average Timing of Down Cycle Dec 1980 – May 1982 Mar 1983 – Feb 1985 Apr 1988 – Apr 1992 Mar 1996 – July 2001 Sep 2011 – Dec 2015 Decrease from Peak to Trough -65% -43% -33% -35% -44% Main Drivers for Down-Cycle Rising Interest Rates High Real Interest Rates Central Bank Sales, Hedging, Growing Mine Supply High Real Interest Rates, Producer Hedging, Central Bank Sales Strong US$, Commodities Collapse
  • 50. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Amplitude of Up-Cycles in Gold Price 50 Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: Paradigm Capital Research Sep 1976 – Nov 1980 Jun 1982 – Feb 1983 Mar 1985 – Mar 1988 Mar 1993 – Feb 1996 Aug 2001 – Sep 2011 Dec 2015 - Present Low Price (At Close of Day) $111 $297 $288 $328 $268 $1,050 High Price (At Close of Day) $850 $504 $492 $415 $1,892 $1,285 Average Price $292 $416 $392 $381 $701 Increase % from Low to High 666% 70% 71% 27% 606% 22%
  • 51. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Amplitude of Down-Cycles in Gold Price 51 Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: Paradigm Capital Research Dec 1980 – May 1982 Mar 1983 – Feb 1985 Apr 1988 – Apr 1992 Mar 1996 – Jul 2001 Recent Trough Sep 2011 – Dec 2015 Average Decline % of 4 Past Downturns Average Decline % of 3 Biggest Downturns Low Price (At Close of Day) $297 $288 $328 $268 $1,050 High Price at Start of Downturn $850 $504 $492 $415 $1,892 Decline from High to low -65% -43% -33% -35% -44% -44% -37% Implied Bottom Based on Previous Cycles $1,056 $1,188
  • 52. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Cycle Duration in Gold Price (Years, Starting with Up-Cycle) 52 Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: Paradigm Capital Research Sep 1976 – May 1982 Jun 1982 – Feb 1985 Mar 1985 – Apr 1992 Mar 1993 – Jul 2001 Aug 2001 – Dec 2015 Duration of 4 Past Cycles Duration of 3 Major Cycles Up-Cycle Years (Trough to Peak) 4.2 0.7 3.1 3.7 10.1 2.9 3.6 Down-Cycles (Subsequent Peak to Trough) 1.8 2.1 5 5.5 4.3 3.6 4.1 Total Cycle Years 5.9 2.8 8.1 9.2 14.4
  • 53. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Poll Question #2 What do you think the price of gold will be by year end? 53
  • 54. 54
  • 55. 55 *Three Hedge Fund Managers’ Thoughts on Gold *
  • 56. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Managing Expectation — Cycles DAY MONTH ANNUAL SEASONAL PRESIDENTIAL 4-YEAR LIFE CYCLE OF MINE 8-YEAR 56
  • 57. The Periodic Table of Commodity ReturnsThe Periodic Table of Commodity Returns 57
  • 58. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Each Asset Class Has Its Own DNA Volatility 58 Daily Rolling 1 Year Gold Bullion ±1% ±20% NYSE Arca Exchange Gold BUGS Index ±3% ±37% S&P 500 Index (SPX) ±1% ±18% Euro ±1% ±10% Canadian Dollar ±1% ±10% U.S. Dollar Index ±1% ±9% Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Global Investors Standard deviation based on 10-year daily data as of 3/31/2016 Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
  • 59. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Gold’s Heartbeat: Gold’s Recent Correction Has Taken It Back to the Mean 59
  • 60. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Value Drivers for Superior Performance 60
  • 61. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 We Believe Royalty Companies Have a Superior Business Model 61 Royalty companies serve as specialized financiers that help fund miners’ exploration and production projects. In return, they receive either royalties on whatever the mine produces or a “stream,” which is a commitment to an agreed-upon number of ounces of gold or other precious metal per year. See Disclosures pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund.
  • 62. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 We Believe Royalty Companies Have a Superior Business Model 62 See Disclosures pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund.
  • 63. 63 Source: Dundee Capital Markets, U.S. Global Investors Unlike royalty companies, producer companies operate mines. See Disclosures pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund. Royalty averages include Silver Wheaton, Royal Gold, and Franco-Nevada. Producer averages include Barrick Gold, Goldcorp, Kinross Gold, Agnico Eagles Mines, Eldorado Gold, Randgold Resources and Yamana Gold.
  • 64. 64 See Disclosures pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund.
  • 65. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Top 10 Performing Gold Stocks Year-to-Date 65 Source: Bloomberg Past performance does not guarantee future results. See Disclosures Pages for any holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund or World Precious Minerals Fund. Company Return YTD as of 6/5/2016 Golden Star Resources Ltd. (GSS) 252.31% Kinross (KGC) 170.88% Yamana Gold (AUY) 164.40% Barrick (ABX) 153.32% Buenaventura (BVN) 149.42% Alamos Gold Inc. 121.33% Newmont (NEM) 94.63% Agnico Eagle (AEM) 90.13% New Gold (NGD) 75.43% Royal Gold (RGLD) 71.73%
  • 66. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Gold Priced in Various World Currencies 66
  • 67. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 U.S. Global Investors Gold Funds (USERX & UNWPX) Are Outperforming Their Benchmarks 67
  • 68. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 4 Stars Overall 68 Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX)
  • 69. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 69 Recognized by Lipper for Investment Leadership Results in Performance • 4 of the U.S. Global Investors Funds received Lipper performance awards from 2005 to 2008. • 6 of the U.S. Global Investors Funds received certificates from 2000 to 2007 During the years mentioned, there were 13 U.S. Global Investors Funds, while currently the fund family consists of 9 funds. See Disclosures pages for additional information.
  • 70. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Poll Question #3 Do you plan on adding to your gold allocation in the next 12 months? 70
  • 71. 71
  • 72. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Sharing Gold Insights with CNBC and Bloomberg Television 72
  • 73. Are you tuning in? Don’t miss Frank Holmes’ weekly gold commentary on Kitco News with Daniela Cambone! 73
  • 74. 74
  • 75. 75
  • 76. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Frank Holmes’ Upcoming Events in 2016 76 Mines & Money Toronto September 26Oxford Club’s Private Wealth Seminar Stowe, VT | July 18 - 19 Mines & Money Australia November 8-10 Mining & Investment Latin America 2016 Lima, Peru | October 24 - 25
  • 77. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Disclosures Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Foreside Fund Services, LLC, Distributor. U.S. Global Investors is the investment adviser. Gold, precious metals, and precious minerals funds may be susceptible to adverse economic, political or regulatory developments due to concentrating in a single theme. The prices of gold, precious metals, and precious minerals are subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. We suggest investing no more than 5% to 10% of your portfolio in these sectors. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. Morningstar Ratings are based on risk-adjusted return.The Morningstar Rating for a fund is derived from a weighted- average of the performance figures associated with its three-, five- and ten-year (if applicable) Morningstar Rating metrics. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For each fund with at least a three-year history, Morningstar calculates a Morningstar Rating based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a fund’s monthly performance (including the effects of sales charges, loads, and redemption fees), placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. The top 10% of funds in each category receive 5 stars, the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. (Each share class is counted as a fraction of one fund within this scale and rated separately, which may cause slight variations in the distribution percentages.) 77
  • 78. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Disclosures Lipper Fund Awards are earned for a fund’s consistent performance over one or more time periods, based on Lipper’s Consistent Return score. Consistent Return is a quantitative metric that incorporates two characteristics: risk-adjusted return, and the strength of the fund's performance trend. The top-scoring Consistent Return fund within each classification receives the awards. Lipper's Performance Achievement Certificates are awarded to funds with returns that topped their Lipper category over one or more time periods. Lipper top rankings are achieved based on funds with returns that topped their Lipper category over one or more time periods. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Although Lipper makes reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data contained herein, the accuracy is not guaranteed by Lipper. Users acknowledge that they have not relied upon any warranty, condition, guarantee, or representation made by Lipper. Any use of the data for analyzing, managing, or trading financial instruments is at the user's own risk. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. The FTSE Gold Mines Index Series encompasses all gold mining companies that have a sustainable and attributable gold production of at least 300,000 ounces a year, and that derive 75% or more of their revenue from mined gold. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The index benchmark value was 500.0 at the close of trading on December 20, 2002. The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS (Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks) Index (HUI) is a modified equal dollar weighted index of companies involved in gold mining. The HUI Index was designed to provide significant exposure to near term movements in gold prices by including companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years. 78
  • 79. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Disclosures The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar. Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility. Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter- end. Holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) and World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) as a percentage of net assets as of 3/31/2016: Agnico Eagle (USERX 2.13%); Alamos Gold Inc. (UNWPX 0.02%); Barrick (USERX 1.60%); Buenaventura 0.00%; CenterraGold (USERX 1.09%); Central Fund of Canada Ltd 0.00%; China Gold 0.00%; Eldorado Gold 0.00%; ETFS Physical Gold 0.00%; First Trust ISE Chindia Index Fund 0.00%; Franco Nevada (USERX 2.53%, UNWPX 1.13%); Gold Bullion Securities 0.00%; Goldcorp (USERX 5.13%, UNWPX 1.27%); Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USERX 0.56%); iShares Gold Trust 0.00%; Julius Baer Physical Gold Fund 0.00%; Kinross 0.00%; New Gold (UNWPX 0.02%); Newmont 0.00%; Primero 0.00%; Royal Gold Inc. (USERX 1.21%); Silver Wheaton 0.00%; Source Physical Gold 0.00%; SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) 0.00%; Sprott Physical Gold Trust 0.00%; VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) 0.00%; Xetra-Gold 0.00%; Yamana Gold (USERX 1.13%, UNWPX 0.05%); ZKB Gold ETF 0.00% 79
  • 80. usfunds.com usfunds.com June 2016 | 16-196 Total Annualized Returns as of 6/30/2016 Expense ratios as stated in the most recent prospectus. The expense cap is a voluntary limit on total fund operating expenses (exclusive of any acquired fund fees and expenses, performance fees, extraordinary expenses, taxes, brokerage commissions and interest) that U.S. Global Investors, Inc. can modify or terminate at any time, which may lower a fund’s yield or return. Performance data quoted above is historical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. For a portion of periods, the fund had expense limitations, without which returns would have been lower. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance does not include the effect of any direct fees described in the fund’s prospectus (e.g., short-term trading fees of 0.05%) which, if applicable, would lower your total returns. Performance quoted for periods of one year or less is cumulative and not annualized. Obtain performance data current to the most recent month-end at www.usfunds.com or 1-800-US-FUNDS. 80 One-Year Five-Year Ten-Year Gross Expense Ratio Expense Cap Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) 67.82% -8.04% -0.36% 2.20% 1.90% World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) 87.51% -11.85% -2.90% 2.01% 1.90% FTSE Gold Mines Index 69.90% -11.04% -1.72% N/A N/A NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index 58.34% -11.48% -2.09% N/A N/A