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Nam N. N. Tran
ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS
(AHP)
#makingdecision #portfoliomanagement
WHAT IS
ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS
(AHP)
Is an effective tool for dealing with
complex Multi Criteria decision
making, and may aid the decision
maker to set priorities and make
the best decision
Thomas Saaty
(introduced in 1970s)
05
Objective: Selectinga contractor
Criteria: Financial,Strategy,Urgency, Stakeholder commitment.
Alternatives: HYU,XYTech,ABCons.
AHP algorithm is basically composed
of two steps:
1. Determine the relative
weights of the decision criteria
2. Determine the relative
rankings (priorities) of alternatives
Ex: ABCONS ?
FINANCIAL
STRATEGY
URGENCY
STAKEHOLDER COMMITMENT
WHAT IS
ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS
(AHP)
HIERARCHY TREE
06
Selectingacontractor
Financial Strategy Urgency Stakeholder commitment
HYU XYTech ABCons
RANKING SCALE
07
FORCRITERIAANDALTERNATIVES
Scale Num Rating Reciprocal
Extremely Preferred 9 1/9
Very strong to extremely 8 1/8
Very strongly preferred 7 1/7
Strongly to very strongly 6 1/6
Strongly preferred 5 1/5
Moderately to strongly 4 1/4
Moderately preferred 3 1/3
Equally to moderately 2 1/2
Equally preferred 1 1
Saaty'sScaleofRelativeImportance(Saaty,2005)
RANKING OF CRITERIA
08
CRITERIA Financial Strategy Urgency Commitment
Financial 1 1/5 3 4
Strategy 5 1 9 7
Urgency 1/3 1/9 1 2
Commitment 1/4 1/7 1/2 1
S 6.5833 1.4540 13.5 14
CRITERIA Financial Strategy Urgency Commitment
Financial 0.1519 0.1375 0.2222 0.2857
Strategy 0.7595 0.6878 0.6667 0.5000
Urgency 0.0506 0.0764 0.0741 0.1429
Commitment 0.0380 0.0983 0.0370 0.0714
1.000
CHECKING FOR CONSISTENCY
09
- AHP evaluations are based on the aasumption that the
decision maker is rational, i.e., if A is preferred to B and B is
preferred to C, then A is preferred to C.
- If the CR is greater than 0.1 the judgments are untrustworthy
because they are too close for comfort to randomness and the
exercise is valueless or must be repeated
The next stage is to calculate a Consistency Ratio (CR) to
measure how consistent the judgments have been relative to
large samples of purely random judgments.
CALCULATION OF CONSISTENCY RATIO
09
Consider [Ax = lmaxx] where:
- A is the comparison matrix of size n n, for n criteria, also called the priority
matrix.
- x is the Eigenvector of size n 1, also called the priority vector.
- lmax is the Eigenvalue.
1 1 5 3 4
5 1 9 7
1 3 1 9 1 2
1 4 1 7 1 2 1
0.1993
0.6535
0.0860
0.0612
=
0.8329
2.8524
0.3474
0.2474
𝐶𝑉 =
0.8329
2.8524
0.3474
0.2474
÷
0.1993
0.6535
0.0860
0.0612
=
4.1786
4.3648
4.0401
4.0422
CALCULATION OF CONSISTENCY RATIO
09
𝜆max =
4.1786 + 4.3648 + 4.0401 + 4.0422
4
= 4.1564
Consistency index, CI is found by
𝐶. 𝐼 =
𝜆max − 𝑛
𝑛 − 1
=
4.1564 − 4
4 − 1
= 0.0521
Eigenvalue:
C.R. = C.I./R.I. where R.I. is the random index
n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
R.I. 0 0 .5 .9 1.11 1.25 1.35
-> R.I = 0.9 (n=4, from table)
𝐶. 𝑅 =
𝐶. 𝐼
𝑅. 𝐼
=
0.0521
0.90
= 0.0579 < 0.1
C.R. ≤ 0.1 indicates sufficient consistency for decision
RANKING OF PRIORITIES
09
To find the ranking of priorities, namely the Eigen Vector X:
1) Normalize the column entries by dividing each entry by the sum of the
column.
2) Take the overall row averages.
𝐶𝑜𝑚 𝐹𝑖𝑛 𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑎 𝑈𝑟𝑔 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑚
𝐻𝑌𝑈 0.5012 0.2819 0.1790 0.1561
𝑋𝑌 0.1185 0.0598 0.6850 0.6196
𝐴𝐵 0.3803 0.6583 0.1360 0.2243
SORTING DECISION
09
𝐶𝑟𝑒
𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝐹𝑖𝑛 𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑎 𝑈𝑟𝑔 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑚 𝑭𝒊𝒏 0.1993
𝐻𝑌𝑈 0.5012 0.2819 0.1790 0.1561 𝑺𝒕𝒓𝒂 0.6535
𝑋𝑌 0.1185 0.0598 0.6850 0.6196 𝑼𝒓𝒈 0.0860
𝐴𝐵 0.3803 0.6583 0.1360 0.2243 𝑪𝒐𝒎𝒎 0.0612
𝐴 = 0.1993 × 0.5012 + 0.6535 × 0.2819 + 0.0860 × 0.1790 + 0.0612 × 0.1561 = 0.3091
𝐵 = 0.1993 × 0.1185 + 0.6535 × 0.0598 + 0.0860 × 0.6850 + 0.0612 × 0.6196 = 0.1595
𝐶 = 0.1993 × 0.3803 + 0.6535 × 0.6583 + 0.0860 × 0.1360 + 0.0612 × 0.2243 = 0.5314
THANKS FOR WATCHING THIS PRESENTATION
Nam N. N. Tran
ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS
(AHP)

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ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP)

  • 1. Nam N. N. Tran ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) #makingdecision #portfoliomanagement
  • 2. WHAT IS ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) Is an effective tool for dealing with complex Multi Criteria decision making, and may aid the decision maker to set priorities and make the best decision Thomas Saaty (introduced in 1970s)
  • 3. 05 Objective: Selectinga contractor Criteria: Financial,Strategy,Urgency, Stakeholder commitment. Alternatives: HYU,XYTech,ABCons. AHP algorithm is basically composed of two steps: 1. Determine the relative weights of the decision criteria 2. Determine the relative rankings (priorities) of alternatives Ex: ABCONS ? FINANCIAL STRATEGY URGENCY STAKEHOLDER COMMITMENT WHAT IS ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP)
  • 4. HIERARCHY TREE 06 Selectingacontractor Financial Strategy Urgency Stakeholder commitment HYU XYTech ABCons
  • 5. RANKING SCALE 07 FORCRITERIAANDALTERNATIVES Scale Num Rating Reciprocal Extremely Preferred 9 1/9 Very strong to extremely 8 1/8 Very strongly preferred 7 1/7 Strongly to very strongly 6 1/6 Strongly preferred 5 1/5 Moderately to strongly 4 1/4 Moderately preferred 3 1/3 Equally to moderately 2 1/2 Equally preferred 1 1 Saaty'sScaleofRelativeImportance(Saaty,2005)
  • 6. RANKING OF CRITERIA 08 CRITERIA Financial Strategy Urgency Commitment Financial 1 1/5 3 4 Strategy 5 1 9 7 Urgency 1/3 1/9 1 2 Commitment 1/4 1/7 1/2 1 S 6.5833 1.4540 13.5 14 CRITERIA Financial Strategy Urgency Commitment Financial 0.1519 0.1375 0.2222 0.2857 Strategy 0.7595 0.6878 0.6667 0.5000 Urgency 0.0506 0.0764 0.0741 0.1429 Commitment 0.0380 0.0983 0.0370 0.0714 1.000
  • 7. CHECKING FOR CONSISTENCY 09 - AHP evaluations are based on the aasumption that the decision maker is rational, i.e., if A is preferred to B and B is preferred to C, then A is preferred to C. - If the CR is greater than 0.1 the judgments are untrustworthy because they are too close for comfort to randomness and the exercise is valueless or must be repeated The next stage is to calculate a Consistency Ratio (CR) to measure how consistent the judgments have been relative to large samples of purely random judgments.
  • 8. CALCULATION OF CONSISTENCY RATIO 09 Consider [Ax = lmaxx] where: - A is the comparison matrix of size n n, for n criteria, also called the priority matrix. - x is the Eigenvector of size n 1, also called the priority vector. - lmax is the Eigenvalue. 1 1 5 3 4 5 1 9 7 1 3 1 9 1 2 1 4 1 7 1 2 1 0.1993 0.6535 0.0860 0.0612 = 0.8329 2.8524 0.3474 0.2474 𝐶𝑉 = 0.8329 2.8524 0.3474 0.2474 ÷ 0.1993 0.6535 0.0860 0.0612 = 4.1786 4.3648 4.0401 4.0422
  • 9. CALCULATION OF CONSISTENCY RATIO 09 𝜆max = 4.1786 + 4.3648 + 4.0401 + 4.0422 4 = 4.1564 Consistency index, CI is found by 𝐶. 𝐼 = 𝜆max − 𝑛 𝑛 − 1 = 4.1564 − 4 4 − 1 = 0.0521 Eigenvalue: C.R. = C.I./R.I. where R.I. is the random index n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 R.I. 0 0 .5 .9 1.11 1.25 1.35 -> R.I = 0.9 (n=4, from table) 𝐶. 𝑅 = 𝐶. 𝐼 𝑅. 𝐼 = 0.0521 0.90 = 0.0579 < 0.1 C.R. ≤ 0.1 indicates sufficient consistency for decision
  • 10. RANKING OF PRIORITIES 09 To find the ranking of priorities, namely the Eigen Vector X: 1) Normalize the column entries by dividing each entry by the sum of the column. 2) Take the overall row averages. 𝐶𝑜𝑚 𝐹𝑖𝑛 𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑎 𝑈𝑟𝑔 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑚 𝐻𝑌𝑈 0.5012 0.2819 0.1790 0.1561 𝑋𝑌 0.1185 0.0598 0.6850 0.6196 𝐴𝐵 0.3803 0.6583 0.1360 0.2243
  • 11. SORTING DECISION 09 𝐶𝑟𝑒 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝐹𝑖𝑛 𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑎 𝑈𝑟𝑔 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑚 𝑭𝒊𝒏 0.1993 𝐻𝑌𝑈 0.5012 0.2819 0.1790 0.1561 𝑺𝒕𝒓𝒂 0.6535 𝑋𝑌 0.1185 0.0598 0.6850 0.6196 𝑼𝒓𝒈 0.0860 𝐴𝐵 0.3803 0.6583 0.1360 0.2243 𝑪𝒐𝒎𝒎 0.0612 𝐴 = 0.1993 × 0.5012 + 0.6535 × 0.2819 + 0.0860 × 0.1790 + 0.0612 × 0.1561 = 0.3091 𝐵 = 0.1993 × 0.1185 + 0.6535 × 0.0598 + 0.0860 × 0.6850 + 0.0612 × 0.6196 = 0.1595 𝐶 = 0.1993 × 0.3803 + 0.6535 × 0.6583 + 0.0860 × 0.1360 + 0.0612 × 0.2243 = 0.5314
  • 12. THANKS FOR WATCHING THIS PRESENTATION Nam N. N. Tran ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP)