Gluten-free What is Next?
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An updated look on the Gluten-Free Market
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Gluten-free What is Next?
- 1. ๏ถ Fast & Fun Facts ๏ถ Free From and Gluten Free ๏ถ Define the scope of the Canadian gluten-free market market ๏ถ Provide some comparisons to US gluten-free activity activity ๏ถ Help us understand the gluten-free consumer ๏ถ Provide some understanding on future market activity Gluten-Free What Is Next?
- 2. Setting The Stageโฆ Secondary Research & Package Facts & Markets & Markets Research Reports: ๏ถ Sales data for publicly trade companies ๏ถ Consulted with gluten-free manufacturers & retail outlets ๏ถ Utilized 2012 consumer survey database from Canada
- 3. Setting The Stage 9.0 MM Canadians are gluten free 1% have celiac disease with only 10% diagnosed 6% have gluten- sensitivity 23% are gluten avoiders for non medical reasons
- 4. Google Gluten-Free Searches โข Gluten-Free Searchesโฆ
- 5. Google Gluten vs GMO vs AllergenGluten-Free vs GMO vs Allergyโฆ
- 6. Social Media Influence on Gluten-Free โข Twitter โ I am eating a gluten-free cake Fa Face Book โ I like eating a gluten-free cake โข You Tube โ This is how I eat my gluten-free cake โข Linked In โ My skills include eating gluten-free cake โข Instagram โ Hereโs a classic pic of the gluten-free cake I ate โข Blog- Hereโs my gluten-free cake eating experience โข Pinterest โ Hereโs my recipe for the gluten-free cake โข Four Square โ This is where I am eating the gluten-free cake Social Media Influences on Gluten-Free
- 7. NPD IN GLUTEN/LACTOSE FREE CONTINUES TO BUILD New product introductions of gluten-free & low/no/reduced lactose food & drink, globally, 2009-2013 Source: Mintel GNPD 7 NPD in Gluten/Lactose Free Continues to Grow Worldwideโฆ
- 8. Gluten-Free Importance By Countryโฆ
- 10. Market Size?Canadian Market Size???
- 11. Market growth is projected to continue due to: ๏ถ Testing of both CD & GI will continue to improve, and more be tested โ therefore more people will be diagnosed ๏ถ More young people will become more aware of intolerances / sensitivities โ and will be more likely to act upon them ๏ถ More young people will also see GF as a healthy alternative ๏ถ More innovation will drive appeal and interest in the ๏ถ As product quality improves, barriers to purchase will be ๏ถ Canada is following the US with the category: โข Becoming more normalised & sophisticated โข Increased distribution & space in traditional retail ๏ถ Growth of the Free-From category (Free-From means not desirable) Canadian Market Size???
- 13. Market Size? ๏ถ Key Segments of the gluten-free category in Canada are: Category $ Value % Share Snack Foods 193.9MM 27.7 Breads/Cereals/Grains 173.6MM 24.8 Frozen or refrigerated prepared foods 143.5MM 20.5 Sweet baked goods 61.6MM 8.8 Ingredients & baking mixes 60.9MM 8.7 Dry packaged dinner/side dish mixes 55.3MM 7.9 Other 11.2MM 1.6 Canadian Market Size???
- 14. โข Canada versus the US in Key Categoriesโฆ (est numbers using several sources) Category $ US % US $ Canada % Canada Breads/Cookies/Snacks $2,524 B 25.5 $336.5 MM 52.7 Dairy/dairy Alternatives $2,249 B 22.7 NA NA Beverages $1,977 B 20.0 NA NA Meats/MeatAlternatives $ 868.0 MM 8.8 $86.8 MM 13.6 Frozen/RefrigeratedMeals $ 868.0 MM 8.8 $112.5 MM 17.6 Condiments/Seasonings/ Spreads $ 819.0 MM 8.2 $8.7 MM 1.4 Dinner Mixes/Sides/Pasta $ 45.6 MM 0.5 $43.3 MM 6.7 Ingredient/Baking Mixes $ 497.0 MM 5.0 $49.7 MM 7.8 Subtotal $9,867.6 B 100.0 $637.5 MM 100.0 Canada Vs US Market Size???
- 15. Category size is quite different when Canada and the US are compared: ๏ถCanada does not permit gluten-free on products like water, dairy (i.e. if it does not contain it originally) ๏ถMeat category falls under different legislation in the US ๏ถCanada is more developed and more medically driven vs the US celebrity driven market Canada vs US Market Size???
- 16. Regionality ???
- 19. Reasons for Gluten - Free Consumption 100% 39% Digestive Health 31% Nutritional Value 25% Lose Weight 5% โTreatโ Celiac Disease
- 20. The Facts Reasons for Gluten - Free ConsumptionThe Facts Reasons for Gluten - Free ConsumptionReasons for Gluten - Free Consumption
- 21. Reasons for Gluten - Fror Gluten - Free Consumption mptio Reasons for Gluten - Free Consumption
- 22. The Facts Reasons for Gluten - Free ConsumptionThe Facts Reasons for Gluten - Free ConsumptionGluten-Free Symptoms...
- 25. The Gluten-Free Consumer- 2.5% Factor
- 26. The Gluten-Free Consumer- 2.5% FactorThe Gluten-Free Consumer- 2.5% FactorThe Gluten-Free Consumer- 2.5% Factor
- 27. The Boulder Foods Gluten-Free Consumer
- 28. The Gluten-Free ConsumerThe Gluten-Free ConsumerThe Gluten-Free Consumer Reasons For Buying Gluten-Freeโฆ
- 29. Packaged Facts defines the marketers as: ๏ง Dedicated those who make only gluten-free items (i.e. Kinnikinnick, El Peto, Enjoy Life etc.) ๏ง Committed - known for health oriented lines (i.e. Natureโs Path) ๏ง Accommodating โ reformulating existing items and adding gluten-free versions Key Players
- 30. Key Players Competitive Landscape ๏ถ New product launches have been the most widely used strategy in this market. ๏ถ Partnerships and collaboration of the business entities is the second most sought after growth strategy. 75% New products 7% Expansion 12% Agreements 6% Mergers & Acquisitions
- 31. Key Players โฆ
- 32. Udiโs has a 9% share of the ยฃ9.1 MM GF Bread Category Udiโs leads the ยฃ15 MM GF Bread Category โฆAnd Will Double Again in 2013 Udiโs Gluten Free Foods = 73% of Category Growth2011 2012 SPINScan latest 52 wks ending 12-26-11 Key Players โฆ Boulder Canadian Growth
- 33. ๏ง The key players in the market have tended to be the traditional players ๏ง Mega marketers have not been picked up by this report ๏ง Research numbers for 2014 should demonstrate some significant changes in the market penetration and SOM by the new players Key Players โฆ
- 36. ๏ง The mega-marketer has now entered the category and 2014 will certainly be interesting from a category growth and share taking perspective ๏ง Private label and mega marketers are expected to increase the number of offerings substantially and market growth is expected to continue to demonstrate strong growth ๏ง Key categories of interest are: deli meats, vodka, almond milk, tortilla chips, dressings & marinades ๏ง Beer, baked sweets and bread products are also expected to show strong growth and interest by consumers Growth Opportunities โฆ
- 37. New product introductions of gluten-free & low/no/reduced lactose food & drink, globally, by company, 2009-2013 (% of launches) 37 Source: Mintel GNPD Launches By Companyโฆ
- 38. Private Label share of new introductions of gluten-free & low/no/reduced lactose food & drink, globally, 2009-2013 2013 year to August Source: Mintel GNPD 38 Retailer Vs Brand Launchesโฆ
- 39. The next natural products consumer Stealth Health: How to Sneak Age-Defying, Disease-Fighting Habits into Your Life without Really Trying. ๏From hemp to celery ๏Walking & napping ๏Small changes that make a big difference What Is Next? Stealth - Healthโฆ
- 40. ๏ง The gluten-free market appears to be substantive ($700.0MM) and growing in Canada (+10% per year) ๏ง The market size is still not clearly defined as many category segments have not been included (e.g. deli category, dairy) ๏ง The estimated 2.5% to 30% of Canadians consuming gluten-free products appears consistent with other category research ๏ง The Canadian consumer seems to come from the โFree- Fromโ category and appears to be in the category for the long term based upon a need to avoid certain allergen elements in their food (i.e. dairy, nuts, egg, gluten) Conclusionsโฆ
- 41. ๏ง The report talks to consolidation of gluten-free specialty companies however, Mega Marketer participation demonstrates some very different market activity & dynamics with larger CPG organizations playing very significant roles ๏ง Key categories continue to be snack foods and baked goods ๏ง However, deli meats, beer, vodka, dressings & marinades are showing strong growth with numerous new product entries Conclusionsโฆ
- 42. ๏ง Canada and the US have some distinct differences in product usage, consumer rationale and legislation ๏ง Ontario appears to be a large under serviced market opportunity and Quebec seems over serviced ๏ง The retail landscape has shifted to a grocery dominance but box store and Walmart endless aisle strategies are important with further market shifts expected ๏ง Online is still under developed in the category Conclusionsโฆ Conclusionsโฆ
- 43. ๏ง Consumers are not limited in definition by sex, age, income or regionality (i.e. everyone is gluten-free) ๏ง The Canadian consumer seems to be engaged in the category for the long haul as they are motivated by medical and health reasons and not celebrity endorsement ๏ง The new product entries by retailers and non dedicated mega-manufacturers has really provided stimulus to the category and this strong growth is expected to continue Conclusionsโฆ
Editor's Notes
- Blue line GF Red GMO Yellow Allergy With advocacy groups decrying the use of GMO crops and trying to label products that contain them, itโs worth assessing whether the rhetoric goes beyond activists to everyday consumers. The Hartman Groupโs new special report, โGMO Perceptions, Knowledge and Labeling,โ finds the population thatโs averse to GMOs looks much like America, demographically. Theyโre passionate about the subject, but ill-equipped to act on their intent. Many do not use the most dominant GMO-free seal and do not trust organic as a proxy for non-GMO. More broadly, consumers are confused about GMOs โ what they are, what foods theyโre in, how they affect health and the environment. Despite not understanding many of these issues, most consumers instinctively feel concern is warranted. In fact, four out of ten consumers say they are avoiding or reducing GMOs in their daily diet CBC survey 75% concerned 10% donโt even know what GMO is
- Over 80% is gluten free
- Although Brazilians are not very used with the term celiac, almost all have heard about gluten because it is law here, all the industrialized foods and drinks are labeled โcontains glutenโ or โdoes not contain glutenโ (translation: โCONTรN GLรTENโ or โโNรO CONTรN GLรTENโ). In despite of this, most people here donโt know exactly what does it means. The translation to barley, oats, wheat and rye is โ malteโ, โaveiaโ, โtrigoโ and โcenteioโ Brazil is an enormous country and gluten free food available depends on which city you are. For example, in Rio de Janeiro City, Sรฃo Paulo City, Curitiba, Porto Alegre and other big towns you can find easier to buy whatever you need. The best thing to do is visiting the site www.acelbra.org.br (Brazilian Celiac Foundation). At this site you can find lots of information about products, where to buy it, doctors, etc. If you are going to Rio de Janeiro, visit www.riosemgluten.com.br too.
- With the exception of Ontario and the Maritimes there appears to be more gluten-free retail outlets than consumers Quebec has the highest development of retail outlets to consumers Quebec has the smallest segment of consumers needing/desiring gluten-free (6% of pop) Ontario has the largest group of consumers needing/wanting gluten-free (58% of pop)
- Traditional grocery stores and Walmart are the key retail outlets for purchasing gluten-free foods in Canada Specialty grocery โ natural channel & gourmet are important Wholesale club stores are also important Canadians are different from Americans in their retail channel of choice Online purchases are increasing and as of 2013, we saw a doubling of the number on online outlets
- Nutritional value โ health food halo Lose weight โ low carb diet Digestive health
- The market is really quite evenly segmented by age, income, sex and regionality There is a slight female skew Roughly 60% are over age 35 Ontario & BC account for 69% of the market 55% have an income in access of $50.0K
- Although the reasons for use of gluten-free food is varied it is more substantive and disease/condition related than emotional The primary reason for buying gluten-free is that the food is perceived to be healthier (34%) Household allergy & sensitivity is also a strong driver for 27% Weight management is important to 24% The perception of gluten-free being higher quality (18%) A household member has celiac disease (14%) Treatment of IBS autism, ADHD etc. (11%) I buy products and they just happen to be gluten-free (31%)
- Example in the US 17,000 new gf products in the last year Cereal bars 297 new ones Savoury snacks 272 new ones Potato chips 162 new ones Chocolate 149 new ones Hard candies 143 In Canada 69 new manufacturers entered the market 2012 M&A Boulder Brands 2012 Agreements Dr Schar & Sysco Foods or Genius Foods & Carrefour in France Expansion & Investments Dr Schaer invests in plant in New Jersey
- Globally โ more lactose free PL launches than gluten free But PL share appears to be on the up in both cases
- Globally โ more lactose free PL launches than gluten free But PL share appears to be on the up in both cases