Business gossip at the turn of 2018 19

Business Gossip at the turn of 2018-2019
“We had a good year 2018. It could have been better but also a lot worse!”
“The e-commerce ‘hockey stick’ boom is weeks away!?”
Dr. Daniel Thorniley
President, DT-Global Business Consulting, danielthorniley@dt-gbc.com
28 November 2018

Latest Business Gossip in Russia 28th November 2018
© 2018 DT Global Business Consulting GmbH 1
Contents
Curriculum Vitae of Dr Daniel Thorniley 2
Business Gossip at the turn of 2018-19 - overall comments 3
Local competition 4
The IT outlook 5
What is digitisation? 6
Sanctions and IT platforms 6
Latest trends in consumer products 7
Pharmaceutical and health 9
The B2B sector 10
© 2018 DT Global Business Consulting GmbH
DT-Global Business Consulting GmbH, Address: Keinergasse 8/33, 1030 Vienna, Austria,
Company registration: FN 331137t
Source: DT Global Business Consulting GmbH. This material is provided for information purposes only. It is not a
recommendation or advice of any investment or commercial activity whatsoever. DT Global Business Consulting GmbH
accepts no liability for any commercial losses incurred by any party acting on information in these materials.
Contact: Dr Daniel Thorniley, President, DT Global Business Consulting GmbH, E: danielthorniley@dt-gbc.com

Curriculum Vitae of Dr Daniel Thorniley
Danny Thorniley is President of DT-Global Business Consulting GmbH (a LLC company),
Danny’s own consultancy company based in Vienna through which he works with some 330
key clients on business strategy in global and emerging markets in the CEEMEA region and
Russia. The services he provides include written position papers, presentation slides and
private client meetings as well as in-house presentations. He is also invited to make some 60
speeches/presentations by clients across the world on global business trends, business
operations, emerging markets, corporate best practice.
Sir John Major, the former British Prime Minister has called Danny “The world’s leading
business expert on emerging markets”
For 23 years Danny was Senior VP at The Economist Group, Vienna on global corporate business trends.
Danny is regarded as a charismatic speaker who can present detailed business and economic analysis in an easily
digestible fashion with a great deal of genuine humour. Danny is renowned for not using powerpoint
presentation slides - never. Dr Thorniley has also given guest presentations at Executive MBA courses on behalf
of Oxford University, the University of Chicago, IESE (Spain) and the Central European University in Budapest.
The executive MBA students at Chicago rated him “best speaker” on 12 occasions out of 12 over 5 years. Danny
has exceptional skill sets in global business strategy, business in emerging markets and CEEMEA and hands-
operational knowledge of business operations, distribution, partnerships, investments and human resource
issues.
He has worked on a personal basis with 330 companies operating in emerging markets for 27 years and has
personal contacts with most senior western MNCs operating in the CEEMEA region and beyond. He makes
frequent presentations at CEO and Board level (over 100). He has personal friendships with leading executives in
Coca Cola, Procter & Gamble, Ernst & Young, Raiffeisen, Robert Bosch and many, many others.
He holds and has held a number of non-executive and advisory board memberships with major European and US
corporations including the Global Advisory Board of the US company Aecom.
Dr Thorniley was educated at Oxford University. He holds a Bachelor of Arts degree, a diploma and a doctorate
degree in Soviet political economy.
He has published three books, including one on Russia with Macmillan (UK/USA) and two with Profile books on
Doing Business in Global Emerging Markets.
danielthorniley@dt-gbc.com

Business Gossip at the turn of 2018-2019
“We had a good year in 2018. It could have been better but also a lot worse!”
“The E-commerce “hockey stick” boom is weeks away!?”
Please note that these remarks were made either in public meetings which I host in Moscow or to me privately.
In all cases, even the public remarks, as a professional courtesy I do not name companies or individuals.
I list here some of the key business themes current in the Russian market and many are referred to below:
localisation, diversification, sourcing, local competition, digitisation, e-commerce, regulatory changes, HR trends,
pricing policy, promotions and discounts, change route to market, cost management and headquarters
expectations.
Overall comments
If one out of a hundred executive comments sums up 2018, then it is this one:
We had a good year in 2018. It could have been better. But it could have been a lot worse!
Our surveys show and the comments and anecdotes at 15 executive meetings in Moscow this year testify that
business in Russia is for 80% of companies good, not bad, better than good or even very good. This implies top-
line, organic sales growth in roubles in a range of 6-7% to 13%, so high single-digits or low double-digits.
But several recent quotations also show that this is not easy:
I agree with those numbers, says the MD of one European pharmaceutical company, but I would sum
up business as good but hard work.
Another MD of a consumer goods company concurs when saying:
We are growing at 8-9% top-line this year but it’s very, very hard work.
The MD of a European B2B company confirms:
We are growing at 8-10% which I think is very good. The problem is that my global HQ wants 13-15%
and I doubt this is feasible organically.
Several executives have spoken of the following themes:
Everyone is competing like crazy, more than ever. The market has transformed in the last 18 months
and is transforming over almost every 6 months.
Agility and speed are the name of the game and you also need to react on salaries very quickly and make
sure that you stay competitive for talent.
Beginning of 2018, the General Manager (GM) of one of the major FMCG companies operating in Russia told me:

Danny, I am tired, I am exhausted. My senior managers and in fact all my staff are tired. We have
managed to survive well over the last 3 years. But the pressures and demands are never-ending.
This view was restated by the MD of a major B2B company operating in Russia with several local manufacturing
sites:
2018 was a tough year. Our business results were good with some deceleration through the year. But
the operational challenges never stop. I feel as though I am walking through mud. Incentivising the staff
can be hard. What do you tell them: “All will be easy next year?!” Managing relations with HQ over the
uncertainties of sanctions have sucked dozens of hours of time”.
Some of the tiredness and sombre mood stems from pressures from headquarters which globally and in Russia
appear relentless. Most executives complain of extreme cost management controls. The MD of a major European
industrial conglomerate noted recently at one of our Moscow executive meetings that:
We have usually had moderate control and reviews of our investment costs and that is understandable
and standard practice globally. But what has become extreme in the last 18 months is the fixation with
OPEX controls. We need to be in charge of this at the Moscow level and not receive silly diktats from
HQ.
The MD of one Asian IT company commented:
Cost controls are extreme and sometimes ridiculous. The finance director of one company I know was
very strategic: he decided to change from coloured toilet paper in the office to plain white in order to
trim costs! 😊
Several executives echoed this theme on sanctions and to paraphrase several remarks:
Sanctions have not had much direct impact on our business. But it created a lot of uncertainty in the
business and alienated many executives at HQ. There was a lot of tension in trying to explain what’s
going on with sanctions and there is no real resolution. Uncertainty will continue through 2019.
This is correct, but it just may be that sanctions are the “boy who cried wolf” in that there have been many
threats but to date less direct imposition of new or extended sanctions. But this is not to belittle the problem.
The MD of a major B2B company explained that:
We have had a great year in 2018 thanks to our localisation which has been in place for several years.
We are growing the top line at about 20% in US dollars and the whole year could finish at +17%. And
within those figures, we lost 5% of our total Russian business when one of our customers was directly
listed in US sanctions. We had no alternative as a US company and visited our Russian clients of 25 years
standing. We were all sad to end the relationship, but we all did state that “Who knows what the future
holds?” and when we get the chance, we will get back together again.
Local competition
During the last week (and months) senior executives across all business sectors have been talking about local
competition. As with other emerging markets, managers of western companies had understandably presumed

that local competitors would be crushed by western brands and systems, but this has not proven the case and
local brands are proving resilient. As the MD of one US consumer product company noted last month:
We thought we had taken out most local brands, but they keep popping up and coming back.
This affects nearly all business sectors now. The trend was best summed up last week in Moscow:
Local competition used to be quite weak and low quality and they fought us on price alone. Now that’s
changed a lot, big time. Local competitors are much better and they are “good competitors”: they have
decent quality and a moderate prices which is what you talk about as “good enough to have quality”.
But these companies have good marketing programs and presentation and the quality of their staff is
also rising. Yes, this will be a growing problem for us.
The IT outlook
The IT sector was one of those that suffered worst in 2013-14-15 and into 2016. B2B spending slumped, selling
to the Russian government (especially for their companies) became increasingly difficult with budget cuts,
tenders and pricing pressures.
But since the end of 2016, we have witnessed a business recovery. After some companies saw their annual
revenues fall by 25-55% annually in 2013-2016, a rally started in late 2016 as the government and some of the
big Russian companies returned to the market and some firms saw revenues rise by 15-25% in 2017. In 2018
sales tended to beat expectations each quarter with overall IT growing at 20-30% with consumer IT rising by
about 20% and the service sector jumping 35%. These are good numbers, but it still means that some/many IT
companies are still below their 2013-14 revenue levels.
One B2B IT/telecom company reports even better numbers with the MD commenting:
2017 and 2018 were bumper years for us after we survived 2015-16 better than most. The last two
years we are growing 35%+ in Euros and we are seeing upgrading and purchases from the Russian
federal government, from Moscow city and from 10-15 major Russian corporates and steady overall
sales to Russian and some western corporates. A good picture and we think it is sustainable (perhaps
not quite so fast) as the economy and currency stabilise.
2018 2019 Δ 2018 2019 Δ 2018 2019 Δ 2018 2019 Δ
Growth of 20%+ 10 3 -8 7 0 -7 0 0 0 15 5 -10
Growth of 10-20% 21 21 0 26 25 -1 27 27 0 17 16 0
Growth of 5-10% 27 40 13 30 39 8 27 40 13 24 41 17
Growth of 1-5% 15 21 6 12 27 16 33 27 -7 12 15 3
Flat-zero 7 11 4 7 7 0 7 0 -7 8 16 9
Decline of 1-5% 6 2 -5 9 2 -7 0 7 7 6 0 -6
Decline of 5-10% 8 3 -6 7 0 -7 0 0 0 11 5 -6
Decline of 10-20% 2 1 -2 0 0 0 7 0 -7 3 2 -1
Decline of 20%+ 3 0 -3 2 0 -2 0 0 0 5 0 -5
Source: DT-Global Business Consulting, Russia-CIS Business Group Survey. September 2018. Number of responses, in %.
Sales growth in roubles, 2018 and 2019
All Companies Consumer Prod. Pharma/Health B2B/Industrial

This last week in Moscow, the senior executive of one IT consultancy and the MD of a major IT provider agreed
that the whole sector would be driven by constant demands for digitisation and e-commerce needs. The MD
noted last Friday that:
We have posted a good double-digit growth year and I am staffed with results. I think the IT market will
continue to grow at 10-20% in the coming years and this will be driven by digitisation which does not go
away. It requires a constant upgrading and development and servicing. We are seeing big demand for
IT related to security and Big Data and this leads in turn to investments into IT infrastructure. We are
currently selling well to the Russian banking sector who want to upgrade their IT overall and to develop
digitisation.
Overall then, the outlook for IT looks the best it has done since 2012-13.
What is digitisation?
Another major theme coming out of business conversations is that digitisation and e-commerce are starting to
impact on business in Russia and is starting to disrupt business models. There are lots of questions if not always
answers:
➢ How do you incorporate it into your business model: is it something tagged on at the side, is it running
parallel to regular business, is it fully integrated into existing business?
➢ When does the “hockey stick” boom in e-commerce in Russia take off? One executive in Moscow noted that:
“It’s weeks or perhaps months away!”
➢ What happens to executive roles: sales, marketing CRM? Who does what?
➢ Where do you get the staff to run digitisation and e-commerce? How much do you pay them?
➢ How much is your HR model distorted: “I don’t want to do that, I want to work in e-commerce”
➢ Omni-channel is good and fine but how does it really work?
➢ How do regional and global HQ relate to this: what structures and reporting lines do they expect?
➢ It’s presumably all win-win. Isn’t it??
Several executives mentioned how e-commerce was already transforming business and see the comments below
in all sectors but including IT, pharma, consumer products and B2B.
Sanctions and IT platforms
For now, the tension and uncertainty around sanctions has abated and this is no longer the No. 1 topic of
conversation and concern. But there is no doubt that the issue is still hanging like a dark cloud and will affect
business again in 2019.
The well-experienced MD of a European B2B company with high levels of technology and digitization in their
business model made the thoughtful comment that:
For several years now, we have been globalising our IT and digitization plans. But with the sanctions
imposed on Iran, Russia and other markets and given the trade conflicts and growing tensions between
the US and China and other markets, there is now a trend in our company to aim for regional IT
platforms: one for the Americas (or 2?), one for Europe, one for MEA, one of Russia, one for China and
one for rest of Asia.

The globalisation of corporate IT platforms has been halted and is being reversed.
Latest trends in consumer products
To summarise the market for many consumer product companies: a tougher 2017 for many; better plans for
2018 which did not come to fruition for everyone; and hopeful better plans for 2019.
1. Promotions and discounts are the killers. Executives scratch their heads to get around this to break the
vicious cycle. The consumer has gotten used to this “drug” and it will be hard to change.
2. As the rouble weakened a bit more in 2018 than in 2016-17, so some FMCG companies have taken the step
to raise prices in the second half of 2018.
3. The Russian consumer has changed radically in the last 2-3 years making business tougher for FMCGs.
4. When consumers have spent money on their holidays or 2-3 short foreign holidays, they are and they feel
less rich.
5. Government spending is not supportive of consumer spending. Government fiscal policy has been austere
in 2014-18 and interest rates tight. Proportionately less spending has gone on education and health.
6. This means that consumers need to save “for a rainy day” and think of covering their own health and
educational needs. They spend on health and not detergents or chocolates.
7. Consumer credit is now rising by more than 20% in autumn 2018. BUT most of this goes on mortgages and
cars. So, once again the consumer has less disposable income to spend on other consumer items or only
wants to buy cheaply.
8. E-commerce could be a help or, as we see in other slides, a disruptive threat.
9. The Russian consumer in some age categories is getting increasingly worried about their pension outlook
and rightly so. This dampens spending patterns.
10. Recent price rises (since autumn 2016) are much tougher to get through thanks to the stronger rouble and
lower inflation.
11. The Russian consumer has been getting more “tired” since about 2016-17. The consumer went through
2013-16 quite well and proved resilient for western FMCGs but that cycle has run out of steam along with
the ability to raise prices. The consumer is more demanding and wants good quality at a cheap price.
The MD of one US FMCG referred to some of the above points:
Volume or price or both and how do we square these circles? We jacked up prices in 2014-15 and early
2016 but since then we have been very moderate. But with rising inflation, a softer rouble and pressures
from HQ, we are pushing prices up a bit more again and some of our competitors are doing so.
Another view of this topic comes from the MD of a European food company:
If I don’t raise prices, then my profitability is hurt and my HQ complains. If I do raise prices now, then
my categories and market share are hurt as well.
The MD of one European cosmetics company remarked last week in Moscow that:
E-commerce has started to disrupt business. Our business is growing at 15% thanks mainly to e-
commerce developments.
And the MD of a European consumer products company flagged that:

E-commerce is accelerating beyond most expectations. I think the famous “hockey stick” moment is
now just a few months away. Business is changing already and is about to get much more disruptive.
The effects of e-commerce are sweeping through business and the MD of one major US FMCG asked:
Can you launch a new product quickly in this changing environment or is your Russia business ham-
strung by international corporate bureaucracy?
As we have noted, if more sales are channelled through web platforms and logistics companies, why do you need
so many traditional distributors? One major food company said a few weeks ago in Moscow that:
We will get rid of 60% of our traditional distributors in Russia this year.
This remark was made over dinner with 15 other CP executes attending and no one was shocked or disagreed.
The MD of a major European food & beverages company noted in Moscow recently that:
Age profiles are defining the business more than income ones. What will be the impact on traditional
brands as younger people dominate trends and perceptions if not yet the buying power.
Several executives have raised the question:
What’s the future for traditional brands in Russia and globally?
The MD of a US drinks company spoke last month in Moscow:
E-commerce has started to disrupt the HR market: where do you find good e-ecommerce staff who can
drive your business.
The MD of a major US FMCG took up this HR theme:
Why will young dynamic entrepreneurs in e-commerce want to work in “my boring company”. If he is
working in e-commerce for me, then I ask myself “Why is he not working for Facebook or running his
own business?”
Another problem is that consumers are “buying into the concept” of upward innovation much less than in recent
years, so upward innovation is harder:
I launch sub-premium brands to capture those who can’t afford the big brands at full price.
Another senior sales director commented in Moscow recently that:
The top and bottom of the market are good for me: but the mid-price and mid-brand sector are hell for
us and everyone else. How do we fix that?

Pharmaceuticals and health
Top line sales in this sector look like they are clustering even more in the high single-digit and low double-digits
level.
In recent years companies in this sector were perhaps too upbeat in budget planning and had to engage in a lot
of re-forecasting in 2015-16.
Here too, the advantage of diversification is clear. Selling to federal programs and the Russian government in
recent years has been challenging given tight fiscal control and diminishing public spending in real terms on
health. If a company was solely engaged in these tenders, then business was/is tough or growth potential limited.
The MD of a major European company explained that:
In 2016 we grew top line at +2% and we aimed to repeat that in 2017 and achieved it and the outlook is
for 2-4% top line growth in 2018-19. Some 98% of our business is for reimbursed federal sales and there
is little scope for imagination. We will manage costs and the profit line will be ok/good as well.
Generally, the overview has been as follows:
➢ Sales to federal programs and reimbursed pharma and medical equipment = tough and challenging
➢ Sales to regional health budgets = same story with possible scope
➢ Sales to the small private health sector = good or excellent but this sector growth does not compensate
enough for deceleration in other branches
➢ OTC/retails sales = relatively good or very good.
But even this needs some modification. As one MD of a European pharma company points out:
Patients are less receptive to TV advertisements and marketing.
Other executives refer to the consumer wanting cheaper prices and value for money now even in health
products. Life style/health products can do well but equally, as budgets tighten, customers see these purchases
as discretionary. The MD of one US pharma company noted recently in Moscow:
Patients now buy less for symptom treatment and spend more on chronic treatment.
In addition to these issues the following factors are at the forefront of business concerns.
1) New pricing regulations that the government comes up with. The MD of one European pharma company
noted in Moscow last month that:
The fact that the government and authorities play around with prices and reverse some of the benefits
of localisation is very negative and irritating.
2) IP protection has bounced back as a key concern. One MD notes that:
Some Russian companies are becoming very aggressive and some initial court rulings are going their
way. These may be overturned on appeal but I wonder why the Russian companies are so confident.
And it just takes so much time and money to resolve. It’s a distraction to say the least.

3) Over-proliferation of pharmacies. There are 4,000 people per pharmacy in Europe but 2,500 people per
pharmacy in Russia. “Virtually anyone” can open up a pharmacy. The problem is that some pharmacies are not
paying their wholesalers and distributors on time and receivable delays flow up through the chain to the western
pharma/medical companies. One MD asked:
Is this the start of a bad debt crisis or is it merely a question of short-term liquidity?
At the moment this executive believes it is “just” a liquidity issue, but concerns are growing.
The B2B sector
This is of course a very broad sector and we have looked at the IT sector above. Overall, the last couple of years
have been generally good or better. At a series of Moscow executive meetings, managers in the B2B world have
spoken of good results with all the regular operational headaches.
As with several other sectors, top-line organic sales growth trends are at high-single or low-double digits in
roubles.
The MD of one chemical company gave his overview as follows:
We have had a good year which started very well and then actually continued without too much impact
from the sanctions story. We are growing at about 25% in roubles across all sectors. We are seeing
increasing import substitution in chemical requirements. Bathroom requirement for example used to
be 100% imports while now local production is at least 50% of the market. Local producers are picking
up and chemicals are working at full capacity. The automotive industry is coming back and this has a big
positive knock- on effect.
Several companies in the agricultural sector have spoken of sporting results in the last 3-4 years. The MD of one
US crop protection company stated:
Import substitution is the strongest driver and local farms and operators have the money to spend and
went to upgrade their production and systems. We were growing at 25-30% in dollars in 2017. 2018 has
been another good year but the harvest was of course weaker and this took a little shine off the market
but is still at very good double-digit levels. We see a positive trend for the next 2-4 years.
Companies often depend on the dynamics of the big Russian operators such as Gazprom, Lukoil, Rosneft and the
banks Sberbank, VTB and the mining and other commodity companies. When these are spending, then B2B is
good. These companies decelerated investment in 2014-15 but have been picking up since 2016.
The MD of one European IT company comments:
The banks and government are spending more since end 2016 and business trends are good and we are
growing top line at 18-20%.
Executives were worried that with 2018 being a sort of “year of the sanctions” that spending by big companies
would be postponed. There was some element of this in the spring but overall such companies have maintained
their intermediate plans and the final quarter is seeing a pick-up in business. The MD of one European pipes and
pumps company noted this trend earlier:

We saw many projects postponed in 2014-16 and then the spending taps came on thankfully and end
of 2016 turned strongly positive and 2017 was a flood of projects being revived. Our business grew more
than 50% in Euros in 2017. But of course, this flurry is not sustainable and I had huge problems managing
the expectations of my HQ. We are growing this year at 16-22% in Euros and I am satisfied with this and
expect double-digit FX growth in the coming years presuming there is no massive imposition of new
sanctions.
Several executives in B2B point out that their operations are boosted by localisation. The MD of one US
engineering company noted:
We have 3 plants in Russia and they operate at excellent standards. Nearly all the KPIs are comparable
or better than our plants in the West. Thanks to localisation we can grow at 18% in roubles rather than
8%
And localisation plays well with the Russian government and state companies. As the MD of one major European
industrial company comments:
We have 2 fantastic factories in Russia and plan more. But when you walk into Gazprom and want to do
business, they ask you “Are you localised?” and if not, then you can forget serious business and tenders.
They are also keen to hear from where you source inputs and we have turned from 70% western sourced
inputs to 30%. If we can’t source locally, we try Asian markets or our own Asian affiliates and last of all,
we look to source from the US and Europe. Of course, we need to get some inputs from the “west”.
And diversification is another winner. The MD of one US chemical company commented last week that:
In the difficult years 2014-15, we could grow at 15%+ in dollars and since 2016 we are at 25% and a lot
of this stems from our diversified product portfolio. We supply to about 5 main sectors of the Russian
economy. When 1-2 are down, we are protected usually by another 1-2. It’s not brain surgery and we
can spread our risk.
As ever, I hope you have enjoyed this report and found it useful. If you have any comments or queries, then do
get in touch danielthorniley@dt-gbc.com
28 November 2018.

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Fact-Sheet
____________________________________________________________________
Fact-Sheet / September 2018
For more information please visit www.gw-world.com or contact:
Brigitte Schatzinger
brigitte.schatzinger@gw-world.com

company
fact sheet
SCHNEIDER GROUP provides its international clients with the
back office services they need to expand their business into or
within Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Uzbekistan
and Armenia.
SCHNEIDER GROUP is your one stop partner in Russian speak-
ing countries and Poland for a smooth and successful start or
expansion of your business abroad.
what we offer
Market analysis
Customs, import and logistics
Business set up
Legal services
Compliance services
Interim management
Legal and business address and fully
equipped offices
Accounting, reporting and transformation
to IFRS, US GAAP and HGB
B2B Electronic document interchange (EDI)
Tax consulting
Transfer pricing
Financial and tax due diligence
IT / ERP services
Expert recruiting in accounting, tax,
IT and out staffing
Event management
Business workshops (starsacademy)
Our comprehensive solutions:
Market Entry FAST TRACK
Setup IT Shared Service Center
Localization
8 countries 11 offices 500+ employees 500+ clients
2003
Moscow | Russia
St. Petersburg | Russia
2004
Kyiv | Ukraine
2006
Almaty | Kazakhstan
2007
Minsk | Belarus
2009
Warsaw | Poland
2012
Aktau | Kazakhstan
2013
OWC-Verlag Berlin | Germany
2015
Astana | Kazakhstan
2016
Tashkent | Uzbekistan
2018
Yerevan | Armenia
2018
references
| schneider-group.com

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©2015Ernst&Young(CIS)B.V.AllRightsReserved.

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