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January, 2011




   APPRAISER
  WORKSHOPS
                          Appraiser
425 South Washington St
   Alexandria, VA 22314
                          Workshops
          703-836-1020




                          Fine and
                          Decorative Arts
                          Market Confidence
                          Survey

                           www.appraiserworkshops.com
                           www.appraiserworkshops.blogspot.com
Page 2                                                      Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey




                 Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey
                                                         Jan 2011

         The January 2011 Appraiser Workshops Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey results have
         been tabulated. There were 139 responses to the survey this quarter. Although this is a respectable number
         when compared to some other reports, (the RICS Arts and Antiques survey typically gets between 35-60
         responses) we hope to increase the number of responses in the future by contacting more appraisers,
         dealers and specialists directly. The more responses the survey has, the higher the significance and reliability
         of the data and results. The data collected is based upon the market experiences of appraisers, dealers, and
         auction house specialists and their confidence level in the various market sectors. It is still anecdotal and not
         based upon actual sales results, yet the results are based upon information from a very focused, reliable and
         knowledgeable universe of respondents.

         I hope to introduce new quantitative data with future reports. The October report was the first, containing
         only basic information and data reporting. With the second survey results, trending comes into focus, and
         with future indicators we will soon compare and graph each trend for each market sector surveyed over
         longer periods of time. The possibility of creating an index is also possible and a viable option.

         For this report, I have introduced the All Sectors indicator for both present and future expectation survey
         results. This computation is based upon the average of the all of the sectors responses, 14 for the present
         indicators and 4 for future expectations. The future plan for the survey and report is to become more
         comprehensive in our analytical developments, yet still remain user friendly and easy to follow.

         The results should prove beneficial to appraisers when analyzing and documenting market conditions and
         trends. Please reference the Appraiser Workshops Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey
         results in appraisal reports. If you have questions about the Appraiser Workshops Fine and Decorative Arts
         Market Confidence Survey and reports, please feel free to contact me at toddsig01@gmail.com



         Todd W. Sigety, ISA CAPP
         Jane C. Brennom, ISA CAPP
         Appraiser Workshops
         425 South Washington St
         Alexandria, VA 22314
Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey                                                             Page 3




SURVEY RESULTS - Present
All Sectors

The new All Sectors indicator is an average of the 14 individual present confidence level market sectors.
The results for January show that 44.49% of those surveyed have positive confidence in the overall fine and
decorative art markets. This is up from 41.55% in October of 2010. The negative confidence level fell from
26.35% in October to 20.53% in January. The results appear to be a positive for the market as a whole,
given that positive confidence levels increased and negatives decreased.

Although the trending is positive, keep in mind some of the very high performing sectors may skew the
overall results, such as the very strong positive responses from the upper markets of both the Asian Art
and silver market sectors.
Page 4                                          Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey




         Fine Art Middle Market



         The Fine Art Middle Market sector is
         showing some positive signs and
         trends. The positive confidence
         levels increased from a very low
         9.77% in October of 2010 to 22.22%
         in January of 2011. The negative
         impressions also dropped by nearly
         half, from 43.61% to 23.81%.




         Fine Art Upper Market



         The Fine Art Upper Market remains
         very strong, with a positive
         confidence level of over 85%, and
         overall remaining nearly unchanged
         from the positive confidence levels
         of October 2010.
Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey   Page 5




Asian Middle Market



The Asian Middle Market is showing
signs of growth, with positives
confidence levels increasing and
negatives decreasing. Many remain
neutral on this market sector, but
with such strength showing in the
Asian Upper Market Sector, there
will typically be a trickledown effect
with increasing confidence and
demand in the lower sector.




Asian Art – Upper Market



Like the Fine Art Upper Market, the
Asian Art Upper Market sector is
extremely strong, and is still
advancing. The strong positives
confidence levels in October of 2010
at 81.9% increased to 86.92% in
January, while the negatives
decreased from 8.57% to a very low
1.87%. It is a positive market
indicator when positive confidence
levels increase while the negatives
decline. The question for the Asian
Market investors and collectors, is
this a bubble?
Page 6                                                  Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey




         Furniture and Decorative Arts – Middle Market



         The confidence level of the furniture
         and decorative arts middle market
         sector remains firmly seated within
         the negative, and perhaps represents
         most of the negative issues found
         within many sectors today. I believe
         there is an oversupply and a lack of
         demand for this particular sector, and
         in economic terms, the sector is out
         of equilibrium. The negative
         confidence levels dropped only a
         small amount over the past three
         months from a high of 63.2% to
         59.38%. To offset that minor
         positive, the positive results also
         dropped from 10.4% to 7.81%. This is most definitely a sector that is showing very low market confidence
         from the valuation community.



         Furniture and Dec Arts Upper Market



         The Furniture and Decorative Arts
         Upper Market remains strong,
         especially when compared to the
         middle market. Positive confidence
         level responses increased and
         negative dropped. The upper market
         of the Furniture and Decorative Arts
         remains strong.
Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey   Page 7




Luxury Goods



The Luxury Goods sector saw its
positive response move from 43.59%
to 60%, a very impressive increase
over a period of only three months.
The negatives of the sector also
dropped from 17.95% to under 10%.
Recent news reports confirm that
many luxury goods retailers had an
excellent fourth quarter. Momentum
appears strong, but will it last
throughout the new year now that
the holiday season is over?




Household Contents



The Household contents sectors
remains firmly in negative territory.
With negative responses remaining
almost unchanged from 59.68 to
58.73, and positive responses
declining by nearly half, from
14.42% to 7.94%. Not a good sign
for this market sector.
Page 8                                            Fine and Decoartive Arts Market Confidence Survey




         Ancient and Ethnographic Middle Market



         The survey results are showing signs
         of negative overtones, although the
         market is sector is not strongly
         positive, the trend appears to be
         upward, with positives increasing
         and negatives falling. The sector
         shows over 60% of respondents
         being neutral.




         Ancient and Ethnographic Upper Market



         The upper market of Ancient and
         Ethnographic art remains strong,
         with an upward trend revealing
         positives increasing from 53.95% to
         over 60% and negatives falling from
         13.16% to 8.14%. A good sign for
         the market sectors continued
         strength.
Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey   Page 9




Textiles Middle Market



The middle market survey results of
textiles continues to reveal a lack of
confidence. The negatives grew
slightly over the quarter from
45.16% to 48.98, and unfortunately
the positive responses declined
significantly from 16.13%, down to a
mere 3.06%. The trending for this
sector is not at all positive.




Textiles Upper Market



The upper market of textiles is
showing some signs of declining
confidence. Positives fell from
48.35% to 36.08% and negative
increased slightly from 8.79% to
9.28%. The number of neutral
responses also increased.
Unfortunately, of the 14 present
condition sectors the Fine and
Decorative Arts Market Confidence
survey tracks, this is the only upper
market sector that has shown a
decrease in positive confidence
responses.
Page 10                                          Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey




          Silver Middle Market



          Driven by the high cost of silver on
          the spot market, both the middle
          and upper markets of silver are
          performing well. The middle
          market sector has shown increased
          positive responses and a decrease
          in negative responses, with neutral
          responses staying nearly the same.




          Silver Upper Market

          The silver upper market sector is
          strong, with increasing positive
          responses of over 77% and negative
          responses falling from over 10% to
          below 4%. A strong sector.
Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidnece Survey                                                                Page 11




SURVEY RESULTS Future Expectations


All Sectors



The all sectors report for future expectations in the fine and decorative arts market shows much more
balance than the individual present situation indicators. The positives and neutral responses are strong, the
negatives are surprisingly low. Although many responding are neutral in their expectations, the high positives
and low negatives is a good indicator for the overall market in the future.
Page 12                                             Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey




          Future Exceptions Fine Art Middle



          Future expectations for the fine and
          middle market are neutral to
          positive. The negatives remain low
          and decreased over the past three
          months, while the positives also saw
          a decline, the neutral responses
          increased, either meaning more
          balance in the sector, or perhaps
          valuers are just not sure how it will
          trend in the future.




          Future Expectations Fine Art Upper



          The Fine Art upper market sector
          remains strong, with positives above
          70%, although this level did fall
          slightly, the negatives for January are
          at 0, which is certainly a strong
          indicator of the strength of this
          market sector for the future.
Fine and Decoartive Arts Makret Confidnece Survey          Page 13




Future Expectations Furniture and Dec Arts Middle Market



The future expectations of the
Furniture and Decorative Arts
Middle Market is rather blurred.
The positives are not overly low
(especially when considering the
present sector results), and the
trend is positive, while negatives of
this sector also increased from 11%
to over 17%. Neutral responses fell.
From the results, the future of this
sector probably could move in just
about any direction. given the mixed
results, and the poor state of the
present market sector indicators, it
will probably be a while before any
significant judgments can be made
about the future.



Future Expectations Furniture and Dec Arts Upper Market



The future expectations remain
strong for furniture and decorative
arts upper market, with positives
remaining about the same, negatives
falling from 9.52% to a mere 1.79%
and a strong neutral response.

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Confidence Survey Jan 2011

  • 1. January, 2011 APPRAISER WORKSHOPS Appraiser 425 South Washington St Alexandria, VA 22314 Workshops 703-836-1020 Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey www.appraiserworkshops.com www.appraiserworkshops.blogspot.com
  • 2. Page 2 Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey Jan 2011 The January 2011 Appraiser Workshops Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey results have been tabulated. There were 139 responses to the survey this quarter. Although this is a respectable number when compared to some other reports, (the RICS Arts and Antiques survey typically gets between 35-60 responses) we hope to increase the number of responses in the future by contacting more appraisers, dealers and specialists directly. The more responses the survey has, the higher the significance and reliability of the data and results. The data collected is based upon the market experiences of appraisers, dealers, and auction house specialists and their confidence level in the various market sectors. It is still anecdotal and not based upon actual sales results, yet the results are based upon information from a very focused, reliable and knowledgeable universe of respondents. I hope to introduce new quantitative data with future reports. The October report was the first, containing only basic information and data reporting. With the second survey results, trending comes into focus, and with future indicators we will soon compare and graph each trend for each market sector surveyed over longer periods of time. The possibility of creating an index is also possible and a viable option. For this report, I have introduced the All Sectors indicator for both present and future expectation survey results. This computation is based upon the average of the all of the sectors responses, 14 for the present indicators and 4 for future expectations. The future plan for the survey and report is to become more comprehensive in our analytical developments, yet still remain user friendly and easy to follow. The results should prove beneficial to appraisers when analyzing and documenting market conditions and trends. Please reference the Appraiser Workshops Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey results in appraisal reports. If you have questions about the Appraiser Workshops Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey and reports, please feel free to contact me at toddsig01@gmail.com Todd W. Sigety, ISA CAPP Jane C. Brennom, ISA CAPP Appraiser Workshops 425 South Washington St Alexandria, VA 22314
  • 3. Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey Page 3 SURVEY RESULTS - Present All Sectors The new All Sectors indicator is an average of the 14 individual present confidence level market sectors. The results for January show that 44.49% of those surveyed have positive confidence in the overall fine and decorative art markets. This is up from 41.55% in October of 2010. The negative confidence level fell from 26.35% in October to 20.53% in January. The results appear to be a positive for the market as a whole, given that positive confidence levels increased and negatives decreased. Although the trending is positive, keep in mind some of the very high performing sectors may skew the overall results, such as the very strong positive responses from the upper markets of both the Asian Art and silver market sectors.
  • 4. Page 4 Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey Fine Art Middle Market The Fine Art Middle Market sector is showing some positive signs and trends. The positive confidence levels increased from a very low 9.77% in October of 2010 to 22.22% in January of 2011. The negative impressions also dropped by nearly half, from 43.61% to 23.81%. Fine Art Upper Market The Fine Art Upper Market remains very strong, with a positive confidence level of over 85%, and overall remaining nearly unchanged from the positive confidence levels of October 2010.
  • 5. Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey Page 5 Asian Middle Market The Asian Middle Market is showing signs of growth, with positives confidence levels increasing and negatives decreasing. Many remain neutral on this market sector, but with such strength showing in the Asian Upper Market Sector, there will typically be a trickledown effect with increasing confidence and demand in the lower sector. Asian Art – Upper Market Like the Fine Art Upper Market, the Asian Art Upper Market sector is extremely strong, and is still advancing. The strong positives confidence levels in October of 2010 at 81.9% increased to 86.92% in January, while the negatives decreased from 8.57% to a very low 1.87%. It is a positive market indicator when positive confidence levels increase while the negatives decline. The question for the Asian Market investors and collectors, is this a bubble?
  • 6. Page 6 Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey Furniture and Decorative Arts – Middle Market The confidence level of the furniture and decorative arts middle market sector remains firmly seated within the negative, and perhaps represents most of the negative issues found within many sectors today. I believe there is an oversupply and a lack of demand for this particular sector, and in economic terms, the sector is out of equilibrium. The negative confidence levels dropped only a small amount over the past three months from a high of 63.2% to 59.38%. To offset that minor positive, the positive results also dropped from 10.4% to 7.81%. This is most definitely a sector that is showing very low market confidence from the valuation community. Furniture and Dec Arts Upper Market The Furniture and Decorative Arts Upper Market remains strong, especially when compared to the middle market. Positive confidence level responses increased and negative dropped. The upper market of the Furniture and Decorative Arts remains strong.
  • 7. Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey Page 7 Luxury Goods The Luxury Goods sector saw its positive response move from 43.59% to 60%, a very impressive increase over a period of only three months. The negatives of the sector also dropped from 17.95% to under 10%. Recent news reports confirm that many luxury goods retailers had an excellent fourth quarter. Momentum appears strong, but will it last throughout the new year now that the holiday season is over? Household Contents The Household contents sectors remains firmly in negative territory. With negative responses remaining almost unchanged from 59.68 to 58.73, and positive responses declining by nearly half, from 14.42% to 7.94%. Not a good sign for this market sector.
  • 8. Page 8 Fine and Decoartive Arts Market Confidence Survey Ancient and Ethnographic Middle Market The survey results are showing signs of negative overtones, although the market is sector is not strongly positive, the trend appears to be upward, with positives increasing and negatives falling. The sector shows over 60% of respondents being neutral. Ancient and Ethnographic Upper Market The upper market of Ancient and Ethnographic art remains strong, with an upward trend revealing positives increasing from 53.95% to over 60% and negatives falling from 13.16% to 8.14%. A good sign for the market sectors continued strength.
  • 9. Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey Page 9 Textiles Middle Market The middle market survey results of textiles continues to reveal a lack of confidence. The negatives grew slightly over the quarter from 45.16% to 48.98, and unfortunately the positive responses declined significantly from 16.13%, down to a mere 3.06%. The trending for this sector is not at all positive. Textiles Upper Market The upper market of textiles is showing some signs of declining confidence. Positives fell from 48.35% to 36.08% and negative increased slightly from 8.79% to 9.28%. The number of neutral responses also increased. Unfortunately, of the 14 present condition sectors the Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence survey tracks, this is the only upper market sector that has shown a decrease in positive confidence responses.
  • 10. Page 10 Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey Silver Middle Market Driven by the high cost of silver on the spot market, both the middle and upper markets of silver are performing well. The middle market sector has shown increased positive responses and a decrease in negative responses, with neutral responses staying nearly the same. Silver Upper Market The silver upper market sector is strong, with increasing positive responses of over 77% and negative responses falling from over 10% to below 4%. A strong sector.
  • 11. Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidnece Survey Page 11 SURVEY RESULTS Future Expectations All Sectors The all sectors report for future expectations in the fine and decorative arts market shows much more balance than the individual present situation indicators. The positives and neutral responses are strong, the negatives are surprisingly low. Although many responding are neutral in their expectations, the high positives and low negatives is a good indicator for the overall market in the future.
  • 12. Page 12 Fine and Decorative Arts Market Confidence Survey Future Exceptions Fine Art Middle Future expectations for the fine and middle market are neutral to positive. The negatives remain low and decreased over the past three months, while the positives also saw a decline, the neutral responses increased, either meaning more balance in the sector, or perhaps valuers are just not sure how it will trend in the future. Future Expectations Fine Art Upper The Fine Art upper market sector remains strong, with positives above 70%, although this level did fall slightly, the negatives for January are at 0, which is certainly a strong indicator of the strength of this market sector for the future.
  • 13. Fine and Decoartive Arts Makret Confidnece Survey Page 13 Future Expectations Furniture and Dec Arts Middle Market The future expectations of the Furniture and Decorative Arts Middle Market is rather blurred. The positives are not overly low (especially when considering the present sector results), and the trend is positive, while negatives of this sector also increased from 11% to over 17%. Neutral responses fell. From the results, the future of this sector probably could move in just about any direction. given the mixed results, and the poor state of the present market sector indicators, it will probably be a while before any significant judgments can be made about the future. Future Expectations Furniture and Dec Arts Upper Market The future expectations remain strong for furniture and decorative arts upper market, with positives remaining about the same, negatives falling from 9.52% to a mere 1.79% and a strong neutral response.